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Post by sponge on Dec 13, 2013 17:37:15 GMT -8
The bar is open.
I have good vibes about where we will end up next Friday.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 13, 2013 17:42:03 GMT -8
I don't really know, but having CM on board will boost fiscal Q1 and could be a huge (positive) wildcard for fiscal Q2.
Let's see pricing, availability date, initial demand chatter/scraps of data first. I'm trying not to get over-optimistic out of the gate. But over the next year, given decent enough subsidies, CM is gonna sell a bunch of iPhones and iPad + LTEs for Apple.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2013 20:01:05 GMT -8
Yes, hopefully next week sees the china mobile saga finalised and we can move on to hopefully a guidance upgrade in 2-3 weeks time, followed by a cracker earnings report about 5 weeks from now.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 13, 2013 20:41:18 GMT -8
Should be a good report even without significant China Mobile sales, IMHO.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2013 21:28:43 GMT -8
Should be a good report even without significant China Mobile sales, IMHO. My definition of a good report includes a guidance revision at quarter's end. But before then an ACTUAL Apple/China Mobile announcement will bring with it new, higher price targets and hopefully institutional buying. Then we can drink the REAL kool aid. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 13, 2013 21:46:31 GMT -8
I have a hard time seeing Apple _not_ issuing a "revision" within a few weeks or so.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2013 23:15:12 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 14, 2013 2:24:52 GMT -8
Unfortunately, I can't read this but have no doubt that someone here can. Does this by any chance say that iPhone hit 50k in pre-orders in just Beijing alone? Bueller, Bueller, anyone, anyone? www.bj.10086.cn/service/mobile/mingxingji/yuyue/
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Post by rezonate on Dec 14, 2013 10:16:22 GMT -8
Mac Pro?!?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2013 10:36:53 GMT -8
I visited a local Apple store in hula land yesterday and chatted with Mr. Softie-lite. With a heavy heart, I had to tell him RT was dead. He didn't disagree with me, undoubtedly aware of the painful fact they would sell better as door stoppers in a hardware store.
The frankenstein PCs and tablets were such a hodgepodge of hardware. I mean, it's like Dell, Sony and HP all competing for whose test pancake wins. Surface 2 Pro still lags while typing 50 wpm -- unbelievable to me.
Win 8's mandate for users to reach off the keyboard and touch the screen is not a joy to experience. Even after watching a few videos on how to navigate Win 8, it's still a mess. Maybe they can clip a Kinect on the top and let me blink to open and close apps.
Excel is mostly unusable on a tablet, except for minor editing, so finger-touch Office makes combating hemorrhoids more fun. As I predicted earlier, Mulally is too smart to put this train back on the track.
Gates and Ballmer are going to be impediments to attracting a top flight CEO, so I'm not optimistic here, except that enterprise is knee-deep in legacy software and hardware that offers MSFT more runway than it deserves.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2013 10:39:26 GMT -8
Next week for Mac Pro, I think.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 14, 2013 10:45:41 GMT -8
Mac Pro availability - probably like iMac? ;D
It'll happen, maybe not riiight away.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 14, 2013 12:20:37 GMT -8
Tim Cook recent video:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 14, 2013 12:48:35 GMT -8
Unfortunately, I can't read this but have no doubt that someone here can. Does this by any chance say that iPhone hit 50k in pre-orders in just Beijing alone? Bueller, Bueller, anyone, anyone? www.bj.10086.cn/service/mobile/mingxingji/yuyue/While we wait on the translator... Sales channels are so different in China...hope we can get more insight soon. 50k really doesn't seem like much (Beijing isn't exactly a small city, it looks like the headline China Mobile regional website). OTOH, maybe it's more like a pre-reservation system, and there isn't even an official announcement/pricing/availability yet. China Mobile's many, MANY stores undoubtedly have a big part to play in the rollout sometime after Dec. 18; only a few are in play this early? (PRC and Me blog) A few days seems awfully long when we've been waiting so long already. Can't wait for some context.
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 14, 2013 12:53:45 GMT -8
While we wait on the translator...When I want to translate a page, I use GOOGLE translator. translate.google.com/
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 14, 2013 12:57:23 GMT -8
Should've clarified, I already Google-translated the page. It only works on text, not images of text of course. Would also help if we had a person who knew how these pre-reservations work in China celco land.
Translating the page says something about "star phones" and signing up early for some kinda 4G mobile bandwidth deal special.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 14, 2013 13:49:48 GMT -8
Should be a good report even without significant China Mobile sales, IMHO. My definition of a good report includes a guidance revision at quarter's end. But before then an ACTUAL Apple/China Mobile announcement will bring with it new, higher price targets and hopefully institutional buying. Aaaand the problem with guidance revisions. If we don't get them, "OMG Apple is doomed!" If we do, it just exacerbates the buy the revision, sell the earnings phenomenon. Doomed if we do, doomed if we don't. Doomed, I tell ya.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 14, 2013 14:08:28 GMT -8
Well, I am still in a quandary,.
I thought Apple would hit 60 billion in revenue this quarter, but I was willing to accept 57-58 billion because, you know, these factors could hold back sales:
1. we didn't know how the iPhone rollout would go. Hard to get the 5s into stores.... 2. Nobody liked the 5c. 3. iPad Air? Yeah, but not much of an upgrade. May not sell..if it does it will be smaller storage sizes and wifi. GM will suffer. 4. Mini retina? May not ship until late November or worse...may not be able to make many 5. Everything is priced too high. Lots of competition out there...GM will suffer. 6. The Japanese don't like the iPhone...DoCoMo won't help much. 7. No China Mobile
Now it's mid December....and every single one of those "buffers"on revenue are blown to smithereens. Except, I guess, China Mobile...but wait.
The 5s, iPad Air and retina mini are massive hits....everywhere. They are in supply demand balance...the higher memory models and cell versions are selling just great.
GM has to be fine with pricier models leading the way and supplies plentiful.
The 5c is doing better than just fine. It is among the top phones selling in the u.s. And Japan...could we have said the same about the 5 at this time?
So....how....do I squeeze back to 59 billion in revenue? Say China Mobile does go live this week and sells 1 million phones before quarter end. That alone blows off any constraints I had...
I'm perplexed...how do I hold back to 59 billion in revs? How do we not get 37% GM?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 14, 2013 14:34:24 GMT -8
Did you put on your FUD hat for that first part, Red? ;D
J/k. I know it was just laying out a principled bear case as an over-optimism check. Will need some time to read through and reply.
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Post by gtrplyr on Dec 14, 2013 14:38:46 GMT -8
Not sure why but iPhone 5s is trending at #5 on Yahoo .... can't find any news though .
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 14, 2013 14:46:12 GMT -8
"buy the revision, sell the earnings phenomenon"
Sounds like a viable trading plan
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 14, 2013 14:54:23 GMT -8
what shall I do?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2013 15:37:34 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 14, 2013 19:30:17 GMT -8
Well, I am still in a quandary,. I thought Apple would hit 60 billion in revenue this quarter, but I was willing to accept 57-58 billion because, you know, these factors could hold back sales: 1. we didn't know how the iPhone rollout would go. Hard to get the 5s into stores.... 2. Nobody liked the 5c. 3. iPad Air? Yeah, but not much of an upgrade. May not sell..if it does it will be smaller storage sizes and wifi. GM will suffer. 4. Mini retina? May not ship until late November or worse...may not be able to make many 5. Everything is priced too high. Lots of competition out there...GM will suffer. 6. The Japanese don't like the iPhone...DoCoMo won't help much. 7. No China Mobile Now it's mid December....and every single one of those "buffers"on revenue are blown to smithereens. Except, I guess, China Mobile...but wait. The 5s, iPad Air and retina mini are massive hits....everywhere. They are in supply demand balance...the higher memory models and cell versions are selling just great. GM has to be fine with pricier models leading the way and supplies plentiful. The 5c is doing better than just fine. It is among the top phones selling in the u.s. And Japan...could we have said the same about the 5 at this time? So....how....do I squeeze back to 59 billion in revenue? Say China Mobile does go live this week and sells 1 million phones before quarter end. That alone blows off any constraints I had... I'm perplexed...how do I hold back to 59 billion in revs? How do we not get 37% GM? Wow, man, you blew my mind. It's almost as if this earnings modeling thing is total wild-assed guesswork, practiced by charlatans peddling the online equivalent of snake oil. Except you of course, Red. When you do it, it is awesome.
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Post by firestorm on Dec 14, 2013 19:31:46 GMT -8
Excel is mostly unusable on a tablet, except for minor editing, so finger-touch Office makes combating hemorrhoids more fun. Actually, I had a problem combating hemorrhoids today, so I drove to Walmart in my podunk town to have some fun. Before picking up the cream and suppositories, I thought I would check out the Apple products section. They had a great array of Samsung phones and tablets, but the Apple tablet display looked the same as it has all year, with a barren piece of mounting hardware and two dangling wires and no iPads in sight. The iPhone case didn't look much better, with one iPhone (maybe an older 5), with all the display information around it looking like something heavy had been dropped on it. At least this time there was an iPhone; usually the case is empty. So, are tweakers stealing the products to trade for meth, or do Apple phones and tablets simply not sell in this part of Walmart America? And doesn't anybody care about the quality of the display?
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Post by Lstream on Dec 14, 2013 19:34:39 GMT -8
Well, I am still in a quandary,. I thought Apple would hit 60 billion in revenue this quarter, but I was willing to accept 57-58 billion because, you know, these factors could hold back sales: 1. we didn't know how the iPhone rollout would go. Hard to get the 5s into stores.... 2. Nobody liked the 5c. 3. iPad Air? Yeah, but not much of an upgrade. May not sell..if it does it will be smaller storage sizes and wifi. GM will suffer. 4. Mini retina? May not ship until late November or worse...may not be able to make many 5. Everything is priced too high. Lots of competition out there...GM will suffer. 6. The Japanese don't like the iPhone...DoCoMo won't help much. 7. No China Mobile Now it's mid December....and every single one of those "buffers"on revenue are blown to smithereens. Except, I guess, China Mobile...but wait. The 5s, iPad Air and retina mini are massive hits....everywhere. They are in supply demand balance...the higher memory models and cell versions are selling just great. GM has to be fine with pricier models leading the way and supplies plentiful. The 5c is doing better than just fine. It is among the top phones selling in the u.s. And Japan...could we have said the same about the 5 at this time? So....how....do I squeeze back to 59 billion in revenue? Say China Mobile does go live this week and sells 1 million phones before quarter end. That alone blows off any constraints I had... I'm perplexed...how do I hold back to 59 billion in revs? How do we not get 37% GM? Wow, man, you blew my mind. It's almost as if this earnings modeling thing is total wild-assed guesswork, practiced by charlatans peddling the online equivalent of snake oil. Except you of course, Red. When you do it, it is awesome. JDS - does this mean you won't be joining the PED smackdown in January . Say it ain't so!!
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Post by dylkeeg77 on Dec 14, 2013 20:21:40 GMT -8
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Post by dylkeeg77 on Dec 15, 2013 7:57:32 GMT -8
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Post by hledgard on Dec 15, 2013 8:39:05 GMT -8
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Post by BillH on Dec 15, 2013 10:34:32 GMT -8
I don't know what question it actually raises. Someday when the Star Wars hover mobile becomes a real product the world that see's the world in such a way will be dismissing it. "It's just a car without the wheels...,big deal."
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