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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 27, 2013 20:26:01 GMT -5
The bar is open!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 27, 2013 20:28:08 GMT -5
And I'm waiting for earnings already, unless we somehow get a bounce in the next week or two. Bleh.
I need a market hangover cure, please.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 27, 2013 20:36:48 GMT -5
And I'm waiting for earnings already, unless we somehow get a bounce in the next week or two. Bleh. I need a market hangover cure, please. I am really curious to see how this earnings season will influence market-wide sentiment. |
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 27, 2013 20:42:54 GMT -5
I don't think weeklies constrain AAPL from rising (or falling) as much as sentiment does. The problem is that sentiment is dependent on catalysts. We have 52 weeks of Max Pain. Today was not sentiment. IMHO, every day is sentiment; and I don't think sentiment is wholly dependent on catalysts. Greed & Fear Factors influence (drive?) sentiment. Some of our mutual hated names in high-beta tech are currently exhibiting "all greed and no fear" by the bulls. Where's the catalyst? In comparison, I don't think AAPL bulls have entirely forgotten the fear factor of Portfolio Decimation 2013. (I sure haven't!) And we're ending the year right in the same price range where the nightmare began... |
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marcellus
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Post by marcellus on Dec 27, 2013 21:53:48 GMT -5
The high-beta tech stocks have no OI, comparatively speaking, to restrain irrational exuberance. Apple has been a catalyst stock for some time, given the secrecy and products that consume all the oxygen inside CNBC (et al) studios.
I'm simply appalled at the acquiescence of financial media to AMZN and GOOG valuation. Then again, it's easy to speculate how many iPhones Apple sold. It's not so easy to explain the pivot points to AMZN and GOOG valuations. I think the talking heads aren't qualified to talk about it and because they're LAZY.
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burgess
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Post by burgess on Dec 27, 2013 22:09:42 GMT -5
"The Compensation Committee believed that the Company’s operating income for 2012 would be difficult to repeat in 2013, in part, because the Company’s business plan for 2013 included the introduction of new versions of existing products with higher cost structures and flat or reduced pricing, the introduction of iPad mini with gross margin significantly below the Company’s average product margins, and price reductions on certain products, including iPad 2 and iPhone 4. The Committee believed that significant leadership efforts would be required to achieve the 2013 performance goals. The table below shows the target and maximum goals and the Company’s actual performance for 2013."
2013 (in Millions)
Performance Criteria
Target Goal Maximum Goal Actual Performance
Net Sales
$ 165,250 $ 170,000 $ 170,910
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marcellus
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Post by marcellus on Dec 27, 2013 22:10:24 GMT -5
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 27, 2013 22:16:58 GMT -5
"The Compensation Committee believed that the Company’s operating income for 2012 would be difficult to repeat in 2013, in part, because the Company’s business plan for 2013 included the introduction of new versions of existing products with higher cost structures and flat or reduced pricing, the introduction of iPad mini with gross margin significantly below the Company’s average product margins, and price reductions on certain products, including iPad 2 and iPhone 4. The Committee believed that significant leadership efforts would be required to achieve the 2013 performance goals. The table below shows the target and maximum goals and the Company’s actual performance for 2013." 2013 (in Millions) Performance Criteria Target Goal Maximum Goal Actual Performance Net Sales $ 165,250 $ 170,000 $ 170,910 Interesting. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 27, 2013 22:19:30 GMT -5
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Post by rickag on Dec 27, 2013 22:27:59 GMT -5
"The Compensation Committee believed that the Company’s operating income for 2012 would be difficult to repeat in 2013, in part, because the Company’s business plan for 2013 included the introduction of new versions of existing products with higher cost structures and flat or reduced pricing, the introduction of iPad mini with gross margin significantly below the Company’s average product margins, and price reductions on certain products, including iPad 2 and iPhone 4. The Committee believed that significant leadership efforts would be required to achieve the 2013 performance goals. The table below shows the target and maximum goals and the Company’s actual performance for 2013." 2013 (in Millions) Performance Criteria Target Goal Maximum Goal Actual Performance Net Sales $ 165,250 $ 170,000 $ 170,910 That is pretty damn accurate forecasting , well done Apple. |
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burgess
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Post by burgess on Dec 27, 2013 22:44:02 GMT -5
I find it fascinating that Apple board members didn't expect 2013 operating income to grow or even match the 2012 total. This was back in Sep/Oct 2012 when AAPL was near its $700 ATH, and Wall Street was still expecting 10%-20% growth.
The sell off began then and didn't stop for 9 months.
I wonder if it was a board member who tipped off WS to the impending apple slowdown, because there was nothing at all in any of Apples official communications or filings that suggested they expected negative operating income growth for the next 12 months.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 28, 2013 0:07:19 GMT -5
I find it fascinating that Apple board members didn't expect 2013 operating income to grow or even match the 2012 total. This was back in Sep/Oct 2012 when AAPL was near its $700 ATH, and Wall Street was still expecting 10%-20% growth. The sell off began then and didn't stop for 9 months. I wonder if it was a board member who tipped off WS to the impending apple slowdown, because there was nothing at all in any of Apples official communications or filings that suggested they expected negative operating income growth for the next 12 months. This is known as the Greg Thurmann Theory™. I still have a hard time believing it, as it is an indictable offense, and we aren't talking penny stock manipulation here. But this certainly lends a little credence to it. I just wish whoever - if anyone - leaked it had given me a phone call around September '12, yo.  |
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Post by sponge on Dec 28, 2013 1:29:01 GMT -5
I find it fascinating that Apple board members didn't expect 2013 operating income to grow or even match the 2012 total. This was back in Sep/Oct 2012 when AAPL was near its $700 ATH, and Wall Street was still expecting 10%-20% growth. The sell off began then and didn't stop for 9 months. I wonder if it was a board member who tipped off WS to the impending apple slowdown, because there was nothing at all in any of Apples official communications or filings that suggested they expected negative operating income growth for the next 12 months. I recall very clearly in each conference call long discussions about falling margins and drops in iPhone adoption rates. With each passing quarter the evidence became more relevant as numbers came out and guidance pointed to a drop in net income as compared to year ago WS asked why the guidance was so low for net income and eps and TC and OP kept talking about the things mentioned above. None of us believed them and those who did kept selling. TC tried to keep folks on board with data on everything else but net income. As the stock dropped, I suspect they anticipated, they put together a share buyback plan to stop the bleeding. It worked perfectly as they bought most below 550 and put a floor in the stock around 425. What I don't understand is why they would discuss target revenue growth for a full year but yet not tell us. Unless they are only obligated to give quarter to quarter projections. I wonder what their target revenue is for 2014. Gregg, give us the numbers. |
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 28, 2013 1:44:42 GMT -5
Apple did a horrific job providing some kind of sign about the impending margin situation. IMHO, that's in the rear view mirror for at least a fiscal year.
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Post by sponge on Dec 28, 2013 2:14:09 GMT -5
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 28, 2013 2:29:34 GMT -5
Bnn.ca? Hm. Will go looking for corroborating sources.
Impressive preordering, considering it seems to be a sign-up, then we'll-call-you-back system with NO subsidy/plan/pricing chart available yet. So...will go look for corroborating sources. ;D (Don't mind me, I'm just a skeptic.)
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Post by Lstream on Dec 28, 2013 7:17:01 GMT -5
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Post by rickag on Dec 28, 2013 10:10:24 GMT -5
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Post by rob_london on Dec 28, 2013 12:07:19 GMT -5
PED: "...Apple is playing in the big leagues and that it knows what it's doing better than any tweet-writing corporate raider who's just trying to increase the value of shares he's owned for less than a year." tech.fortune.cnn.com/category/apple-2-0/ |
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greggthurman
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Post by greggthurman on Dec 28, 2013 13:09:19 GMT -5
I find it fascinating that Apple board members didn't expect 2013 operating income to grow or even match the 2012 total. This was back in Sep/Oct 2012 when AAPL was near its $700 ATH, and Wall Street was still expecting 10%-20% growth. The sell off began then and didn't stop for 9 months. I wonder if it was a board member who tipped off WS to the impending apple slowdown, because there was nothing at all in any of Apples official communications or filings that suggested they expected negative operating income growth for the next 12 months. This is known as the Greg Thurmann Theory™. I still have a hard time believing it, as it is an indictable offense, and we aren't talking penny stock manipulation here. But this certainly lends a little credence to it. I just wish whoever - if anyone - leaked it had given me a phone call around September '12, yo. It's not a theory. Apple performed badly during F2013, and anybody doing a YoY comparison of Apple's 10Qs would have seen it. For all the number crunching I do, I did not compare YoY. Wish I had. Had you been doing that, while you may have missed the top, you wouldn't have been damaged on AAPL's way down (as I was). This is Fundamentals trading at its finest. Enough of the rear view spilt milk whining. Given Cook's oft stated comments about new products, and the signing of Docomo and China Mobile, even a continuation of past performance with Apple's core markets will result in significant Revenue/Net Income growth during F2014 and F2015. Now there is some interesting speculation that HTC and Samsung are preparing to ditch Android for Tizen. If that happens platform market shares are going to undergo a major shift. I believe this will happen, it makes sense for both HTC and Samsung to do so. Oh, and I've never thought, nor stated, that anyone inside Apple alerted the Street about management's expectations. |
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