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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2013 8:55:57 GMT -8
How does ... 1. Labelling analysts as lazy 2. Accusing Bezos of running a Ponzi scheme 3. Playing word games like Bozos ... Have anything to do with sharing information about Apple? BTW, I am firing my broker for suggesting that I buy AMZN. So I don't agree with the valuation either. But comparing AAPL to AMZN valuation and expecting to discover anything useful is way past the stale date. That should be obvious. CNBC is looking to hire you, as you'd fit right in: Cherry picking material to mask making a point, apart from moonlighting as a board cop. Some of us actually know something about business valuation, unlike you, who just accept Wall Street's verdict: "They just value AMZN differently." Thanks for that. lol
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2013 8:59:35 GMT -8
The beauty lies in Jeff Bezos continues to grow wealthier despite Amazon merely break-even. I don't think Bezos cares very much about his personal wealth. AMZN's share price could collapse and I don't think it would make him change his mind on running a break-even business. I think the only way Amazon turns into a for profit business is from someone else being in charge, either from a natural succession or from Bezos being fired. I don't think either of those scenarios are very likely in the next 10 years. But you nailed it with the idea that Bezos HAS to keep spending to have a story for WS to justify not making a profit. Are drones the next capital expenditure after he's done building bricks and mortar (self-fulfillment centers)? He needs something to keep WS buying the Ponzi scheme concept.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2013 9:00:55 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2013 9:27:54 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2013 9:34:04 GMT -8
And the constant crying about Amazon's valuations is tiresome and of no (zero, nada) relevance to AAPL. This is the weekend thread, in case you don't use a calendar. If someone is making an argument that WS nails AAPL's valuation on fundamental analysis, then AMZN is highly relevant. Sorry, but 80 posts doesn't quite qualify you to be moderator. Please explain to me how Amazon's share price is relevant to Apple's?? It's not even a competitor. I could understand Samsung or Microsoft being a comparison, but Amazon isn't. It's not a competitor and it's share price is irrelevant to Apple's. Complaining that it's not fair or wrong does nothing...if you think it's too high, short it
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 29, 2013 9:50:12 GMT -8
I love the weekend thread... Wait until the New Year's Eve thread..... I bought at 559.94 on Friday. I intend to sell at a profit on Tuesday. That is my intent......
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Post by Lstream on Dec 29, 2013 9:52:08 GMT -8
This is the weekend thread, in case you don't use a calendar. If someone is making an argument that WS nails AAPL's valuation on fundamental analysis, then AMZN is highly relevant. Sorry, but 80 posts doesn't quite qualify you to be moderator. Please explain to me how Amazon's share price is relevant to Apple's?? It's not even a competitor. I could understand Samsung or Microsoft being a comparison, but Amazon isn't. It's not a competitor and it's share price is irrelevant to Apple's. Complaining that it's not fair or wrong does nothing...if you think it's too high, short it Exactly.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2013 10:05:57 GMT -8
If one believes that WS will reward/punish according to the fundamentals of the business, then one should be consistent. If that mechanism is broken, then it's a threat to all stocks. I'm still waiting for someone to publish a thoughtful analysis the justifies Amazon's current price. Raising questions about Amazon's valuation is relevant for this reason and another one often overlooked:
If both Amazon, and to lesser extent, Google, can continue to dump products with zero margin without penalty by WS, then the competitive risk can only grow against Apple. If profits aren't expected from a company competing in Apple's space, should we view this as a long term, positive environment? I sure don't. Calling attention to a valuation disconnect is grist for the mill, and the more people talk about it, the chances improve it receives wider awareness. It's the old story of "for want of a nail..." and after all, Amazon IS a tech stock.
Do I see potential rotation out of AMZN into AAPL? I'm hopeful. The question is WHEN, which is why I don't short it.
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Post by sponge on Dec 29, 2013 10:10:54 GMT -8
If one believes that WS will reward/punish according to the fundamentals of the business, then one should be consistent. If that mechanism is broken, then it's a threat to all stocks. I'm still waiting for someone to publish a thoughtful analysis the justifies Amazon's current price. Raising questions about Amazon's valuation is relevant for this reason and another one often overlooked: If both Amazon, and to lesser extent, Google, can continue to dump products with zero margin without penalty by WS, then the competitive risk can only grow against Apple. If profits aren't expected from a company competing in Apple's space, should we view this as a long term, positive environment? I sure don't. Calling attention to a valuation disconnect is grist for the mill, and the more people talk about it, the chances improve it receives wider awareness. It's the old story of "for want of a nail..." and after all, Amazon IS a tech stock. Do I see potential rotation out of AMZN into AAPL? I'm hopeful. The question is WHEN, which is why I don't short it. I applaud you for taking the time to explain something that is clear and relevant. But not all students get it the first time.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2013 10:20:50 GMT -8
If apple comes up with either a smart watch and/or tv in 2014 - do you think they will announce a preview of the device in January like they did with first iPhone (jan 9th, 2007) or iPad (jan 27th, 2010)? Apple ceased doing MacWorld because it created an artificial time line to introduce products. I think the following MacWorld (2008) was the last Apple participated in. Since then Apple has announced products on a widely varied schedule. Any new product (a supposed iWatch included) will be announced/previewed when Apple is ready. That could be January, or it could be April, or some other month. Any speculation as to timing is a waste of energy.
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 29, 2013 10:45:40 GMT -8
If one believes that WS will reward/punish according to the fundamentals of the business, then one should be consistent. If that mechanism is broken, then it's a threat to all stocks. I'm still waiting for someone to publish a thoughtful analysis the justifies Amazon's current price. Raising questions about Amazon's valuation is relevant for this reason and another one often overlooked: If both Amazon, and to lesser extent, Google, can continue to dump products with zero margin without penalty by WS, then the competitive risk can only grow against Apple. If profits aren't expected from a company competing in Apple's space, should we view this as a long term, positive environment? I sure don't. Calling attention to a valuation disconnect is grist for the mill, and the more people talk about it, the chances improve it receives wider awareness. It's the old story of "for want of a nail..." and after all, Amazon IS a tech stock. Do I see potential rotation out of AMZN into AAPL? I'm hopeful. The question is WHEN, which is why I don't short it. Well stated in the very best way, Mercel. Calmly and succinctly. Nicely done.
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 29, 2013 10:52:17 GMT -8
Excellent, comprehensive and overdue column regarding devious (and mistaken) analysts/critics and copycat competitors. Thanks for the link!
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 29, 2013 10:58:00 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Dec 29, 2013 11:03:24 GMT -8
If one believes that WS will reward/punish according to the fundamentals of the business, then one should be consistent. If that mechanism is broken, then it's a threat to all stocks. I'm still waiting for someone to publish a thoughtful analysis the justifies Amazon's current price. Raising questions about Amazon's valuation is relevant for this reason and another one often overlooked: If both Amazon, and to lesser extent, Google, can continue to dump products with zero margin without penalty by WS, then the competitive risk can only grow against Apple. If profits aren't expected from a company competing in Apple's space, should we view this as a long term, positive environment? I sure don't. Calling attention to a valuation disconnect is grist for the mill, and the more people talk about it, the chances improve it receives wider awareness. It's the old story of "for want of a nail..." and after all, Amazon IS a tech stock. Do I see potential rotation out of AMZN into AAPL? I'm hopeful. The question is WHEN, which is why I don't short it. I applaud you for taking the time to explain something that is clear and relevant. But not all students get it the first time. Except that the threat to Apple (if there is really one) in not valuation at all. I am with others when they say that Bezos would be driving the same strategy no matter how Wall Street valued the stock. He has a particular vision that he will not be shaken from. The real issue is customers, which is all Bezos really cares about. As long as customers keep flocking to his company, as they apparently did this season, he will keep implementing and investing in the business. Amazon's valuation is an imaginary enemy. If Amazon is really some kind of threat to Apple, it is due to the millions of people buying product from them. That is the world the Amazon haters need to change, not WS valuation. Good luck with that. The company offers an amazing service that is only going to get better. I think the real lesson in all of this is the value of vision and a story. Bezos is the best there is at making people believe an extremely simple story - "Amazon is going to dominate retail - even if it takes decades" And customer traction causes investors to believe he is right. Plus the fact that there is no competitor on the horizon who has any hope of stopping him. Compare that to Cook, who essentially refuses to say anything specific about Apple's vision. Just the same old tired "trust us, we make great products" line. All this complaining about Amazon valuation is misplaced and futile. The real "enemy" is happy customers. And there is no sign of that changing any time soon. So if anyone here wants to go on a crusade against Amazon, the ONLY metric that will change anything is sales and customer satisfaction. Take the fight there if you think you have any hope at righting this "wrong". Amazon's valuation could drop by a factor of ten tomorrow, and it wouldn't change a thing. Bezos is unshakable in his vision and tenacity.
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Post by sponge on Dec 29, 2013 11:08:23 GMT -8
Some will never get it.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 29, 2013 11:11:38 GMT -8
The AMZN/AAPL debate of the past two days is better reasoned, argued and explained than. 95 % of the crap analysts and 'big thinkers' get paid to write
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Post by Lstream on Dec 29, 2013 11:12:31 GMT -8
Powerful argument
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Post by sponge on Dec 29, 2013 11:23:21 GMT -8
Powerful argument Mercel and I made good points, but you focus in their CEO and customer service. You don't get it because you like their service. That is not the debate. Profits and WS valuation of a public company is the issue and the long term health of those companies.
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Post by Lstream on Dec 29, 2013 11:36:32 GMT -8
Powerful argument Mercel and I made good points, but you focus in their CEO and customer service. You don't get it because you like their service. That is not the debate. Profits and WS valuation of a public company is the issue and the long term health of those companies. You are not understanding what I am saying. You guys are trying to make the case that Amazon's valuation is some kind of threat to Apple. My belief is that the real threat (and I don't even agree there is one) is customer success. The fact that one person (me) admires their service is irrelevant. But millions of people voting with their wallets do matter. The ONLY way in the foreseeable future for AMZN to a pay a valuation penalty is for their sales to slow and turn down. This has been proven over many years of history now. CAUSE: Growing Sales, vision, and no effective competition EFFECT: Stupid valuation Attack the cause if you think you can make a difference. Attacking me because "I don't get it" is just as futile and amateurish as complaining about valuation which is an imaginary problem, speaking as an Apple investor.
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Post by sponge on Dec 29, 2013 11:42:04 GMT -8
You still don't get it.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 29, 2013 11:44:45 GMT -8
Sponge,
In fairness, he has laid out his reasoning very well. Living in Seattle, I get the Bezos 'magic' all the time. Wall Street loves the story and will reward it until the walls around it begin to crumble. Not anytime soon
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Post by Lstream on Dec 29, 2013 11:47:09 GMT -8
Thanks. I take that as you admitting you are incapable of a reasoned and intelligent response. Not surprising.
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Post by sponge on Dec 29, 2013 11:50:49 GMT -8
Sponge, In fairness, he has laid out his reasoning very well. Living in Seattle, I get the Bezos 'magic' all the time. Wall Street loves the story and will reward it until the walls around it begin to crumble. Not anytime soon I refer to my arguments about why Amazon's future is not that bright. WS will never value aapl fairly for the same reason it does not with Amazon. But aapl stock will cont to climb and amzn will go down.
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Post by Lstream on Dec 29, 2013 11:51:43 GMT -8
Sponge, In fairness, he has laid out his reasoning very well. Living in Seattle, I get the Bezos 'magic' all the time. Wall Street loves the story and will reward it until the walls around it begin to crumble. Not anytime soon I used to scoff at Bezos too and the silly valuations he has been rewarded with. I have come to realize that the guy must be respected for violating almost every rule of business and succeeding at it. I don't know how to value what he is doing so I will not invest. But he is clear with his intentions and strategy, and no one has the right to accuse him of underhanded Ponzi behaviour. The guy is an amazing business mind.
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Post by sponge on Dec 29, 2013 11:56:40 GMT -8
Thanks. I take that as you admitting you are incapable of a reasoned and intelligent response. Not surprising. I no longer get upset at those low blows because I expect it from you. But put your money where your mouth is and get out of aapl and buy Amazon. Also why don't you counter my arguments that detailed a few hours ago. Show me how Amazon's model is bullet proof from competition like Target, Walmart, or even Apple. Market share of customers is not a secret to making future profits. Apple has taught us well.
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Post by Lstream on Dec 29, 2013 12:16:43 GMT -8
Thanks. I take that as you admitting you are incapable of a reasoned and intelligent response. Not surprising. I no longer get upset at those low blows because I expect it from you. But put your money where your mouth is and get out of aapl and buy Amazon. Also why don't you counter my arguments that detailed a few hours ago. Show me how Amazon's model is bullet proof from competition like Target, Walmart, or even Apple. Market share of customers is not a secret to making future profits. Apple has taught us well. If you don't like the low blow, then cease the bush league attacks about "not getting it". I have a different opinion and am attempting to explain it. I have repeated many times that I have no intention of investing in Amazon, because I don't get the valuation. So stop with the "money where your mouth is" nonsense. Your post of a few hours ago supports what I am saying. You just don't realize it. You are saying that "some day" a competitor will undermine their business model. Point taken, but that day in not now. Valuation comes down when that day comes and Amazon sales drop. TODAY, there is no credible threat to stop the Amazon momentum and sales growth. That sales growth and no credible threat is leading to the valuation. Which is why I keep trying to say that valuation is a by-product of business model success and pointless to complain about. One more time: If Amazon is a threat to Apple, it is due to customers loving them, not WS nosebleed valuations.
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Post by appledoc on Dec 29, 2013 12:37:33 GMT -8
Nice weekend thread!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 29, 2013 13:17:49 GMT -8
What's your outlook for price, Doc? ( oh, and I have a pain....right....here)
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Post by mace on Dec 29, 2013 13:28:13 GMT -8
... It's not even a competitor. I could understand Samsung or Microsoft being a comparison, but Amazon isn't. It's not a competitor ... Amazon is a competitor because both Apple and Amazon are retailers . Off the cuff, skirmishes so far are Kindles vs iPads, ebook pricing, use of "App Store", digital music, etc. The battle over eBooks and digital music has to be closely monitored.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 29, 2013 14:24:02 GMT -8
Here's a look of the new Mac Pro in the Apple store. My iPad Air for scale
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