|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 15, 2012 18:53:00 GMT -8
Ignore the EW stuff and just look at the Fibs. At the moment, my best guess for the top of this upwave is somewhere between 693.05 (we've topped) and 724.52 (one more push up)... (Click once to open, then click again to zoom) AAPL DAILY CHART w/FIBS: Intraday 15-Min Charts: Retrace: Extension:
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 23, 2012 18:12:55 GMT -8
AAPL DAILY CHART (with my notes):
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 24, 2012 10:42:22 GMT -8
Mav, replying from Intraday... AAPL DAILY CHART: Mav, as requested, here's a daily chart with the EMA 8-13-21 that the T3 guys use. We're in the middle of the channel. Need to get back up and over EMA-8. MACD-h crossed down a smidge, but if we can get back up, might be able to reverse that. Or not. Mid-channel always most trecherous! Fast Sto can go lower...so not sure if this isn't just oversold bounce before another leg down. Say bullish above EMA-8 and bearish below EMA-21. Smooshed in between is the danger zone!!
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 24, 2012 18:47:20 GMT -8
Look at this!!! 300%!!! AND if I recall correctly, Mace explained these Fib extensions were our possible targets...but I was just starting to learn EW and Fibs back then... AAPL DAILY CHART:
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 25, 2012 18:19:18 GMT -8
AAPL DAILY CHART (with my notes):
|
|
|
Post by prazan on Sept 25, 2012 18:57:37 GMT -8
AAPL DAILY CHART (with my notes): Brilliant chart! You're the Georgia O'Keeffe of chartists.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 25, 2012 19:06:13 GMT -8
iPad would fit right in with the best of the traders. Even more impressively is how quickly she picked up all this technical stuff! Maybe I'm just dumb, but making the transition from fundamentals to technicals takes tons of brainpower. (Of course, I'm trying something far, far beyond my limited abilities by attempting to hybridize the two. Like learning to fly the Space Shuttle before you can walk.)
|
|
|
Post by Big Al on Sept 26, 2012 1:34:39 GMT -8
Thank you for the great charts, lovey. I really like them.
My personal retracement level that I am looking for to load up again is around 654, which is the 38.2% retracement level from our Jul 26th move. It is also very close to the 50-day MA which should hit that level within the next 4-6 trading days.
|
|
|
Post by bernard on Sept 26, 2012 2:45:29 GMT -8
My personal retracement level that I am looking for to load up again is around 654, which is the 38.2% retracement level from our Jul 26th move. It is also very close to the 50-day MA which should hit that level within the next 4-6 trading days. And as a P.S.: the 23.6 retracement level is around 673.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 26, 2012 17:29:58 GMT -8
And as a P.S.: the 23.6 retracement level is around 673. Nice, Bernard!!
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 26, 2012 17:40:54 GMT -8
Everyone, thanks for saying nice things about my charts! I really do love charting.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 26, 2012 17:49:52 GMT -8
AAPL DAILY CHART (with my notes): Go find the keys to warm up the truck!
|
|
|
Post by davidcv100 on Sept 26, 2012 17:57:54 GMT -8
Thanks iPad! Great chart, as always. I love seeing the low RSI. Warming up the Tonka as we speak, no keys required.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 26, 2012 18:17:15 GMT -8
I'll keep watching. I won't be committing too strongly unless I see some nice, high-volume, big-time reversal.
Might start adding in the mid 650s or 640s, or on relative strength that "looks" sustainable (i.e., taking a flyer).
Note for newer forum members: iPad's non-advice was to find the keys to warm up the truck. Not the same as backing up the truck to load up on AAPLs. Important to note, because per that daily chart, oversold can still mean massive pain. See AAPL 560-ish >> about 520 capitulation bottom in mid-May. And while this IS AAPL, and laws of physics typically apply, past isn't necessarily prelude, so always be prepared for anything.
|
|
|
Post by macziggy on Sept 28, 2012 14:50:39 GMT -8
I have been watching levels on this chart. iPad's are much better than mine but I thought I would post mine too. The green line is the trend line from the 644 top through the multiple supports at 658ish. That has held so far. If not, the bottom Bollinger Band is located at 652.77 (thin grey line). That is normally a level that holds but, if not, the blue trend line connects the low of 522 through the 575 low from July. That currently falls near the 620ish level. The black lines form the channel that the stock has been in since May, except for the earnings miss. It is still in this channel so that might continue to hold if it doesn't spend too much time below 665. The 50-day SMA is located at 648.91. The thick gold line is the 20-day SMA. Those are the levels to watch.
|
|
|
Post by jcaron on Sept 28, 2012 16:12:17 GMT -8
Very well done MZ... Thank you
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 28, 2012 17:47:58 GMT -8
MacZiggy, great chart with GREAT notes -- thank you so much!!
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 28, 2012 17:55:40 GMT -8
Thanks for the perspective, MZ.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 29, 2012 12:46:09 GMT -8
I have looked at April and now, really similar. The RSI and STO points are amazingly close. Here is what I noticed a while ago in the comparison with April. I was watching to see if we'd get back above the trendline as we did in April...or if maybe we'd have a parallel channel. Now, I'm wondering if it's more like April than anyone wants to believe...or if that's exactly the (wrong!) conclusion the EOs want us to draw!! As always, we just have to watch PRICE for confirmation or invalidation level by level. AAPL DAILY CHART (with my notes):
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 29, 2012 12:59:23 GMT -8
iPad, how about a trendline connecting with 530? Besides, if you're going with parallel channel theory, you'd also go with a smaller projected drop because the accelerated trend didn't result in anywhere near the same increase in price. There you go impressing me again! I have been watching this one too...and just look how it lines up with H&S, Fibs, daily SMA-50, etc. We have multiple indicators pointing to the same place. AAPL DAILY CHART: (trendline)
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2012 13:00:12 GMT -8
Actually, I mean a trendline from the start of the 2012 accelerated uptrend through 530 (what I meant by "connecting with"). I think that's one decent interpretation of a "floor" to watch. My "sheet of paper against the monitor" trendline works out to about 700 end of year. But that works too. EDIT: If you draw the trendline connecting that _other_ point of 570-ish rather than the 530, you get a similar result as that trendline you thought I was talking about. Which is probably more valid because there's nothing below the trendline. Make sense?
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 29, 2012 13:07:50 GMT -8
Okay, let me try to do what you're saying. Meanwhile, look at this... AAPL DAILY CHART: Parallel Channels
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2012 13:08:54 GMT -8
I'd also point out that parallel trendlines don't seem to "match up." That first trendline broke pretty cleanly, then 50% retrace of the accelerated move. The "parallel" trendline did not mark the end of the move from late July.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 29, 2012 13:15:38 GMT -8
Actually, I mean a trendline from the start of the 2012 accelerated uptrend through 530 (what I meant by "connecting with"). (...) GOOD ONE, MAV!!! Look at this... Goes to 750...that lines up with the fundamental floor too, right? AAPL TWO-DAY CHART: (intermediate-term channel)
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2012 13:20:03 GMT -8
Hm...thing is, I thought trendlines you make...sorry to rhyme...shouldn't break?
I like the Bull (regular) case the trendlines might be making, though!
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 29, 2012 13:29:53 GMT -8
Hm...thing is, I thought trendlines you make...sorry to rhyme...shouldn't break? I like the Bull (regular) case the trendlines might be making, though! Technically, the more tops and bottoms a trendline connects, the stronger the trendline. After you get the best fit, you can make parallel lines for channels. So price can conceivably break a trendline and go into a lower/higher parallel channel.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2012 13:32:27 GMT -8
Well then, I guess I helped a little with an awesome trendline.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 29, 2012 13:47:50 GMT -8
Well then, I guess I helped a little with an awesome trendline. I TOLD YOU!!! I. Told. You. I told you all along that you had natural instincts for this stuff, that you were already innately picking up on the story the technicals told. But did you believe me?? Nooooo. SO GLAD you found your way to The Dark Side!!! ;D
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Sept 29, 2012 14:00:39 GMT -8
The more I think about the trendlines, the more I like them (as points of reference) We should definitely revisit this chart every so often. I'm thinking others can pitch in with some extrapolations, like earnings growth correlation to price (cash has been done a few times already), iPhone/iPad sales, etc. Thanks a bunch, iPad!
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Sept 29, 2012 14:10:25 GMT -8
Lookie, Mav! The parallel channels! AAPL DAILY CHART: Channels
|
|