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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 15, 2012 13:09:35 GMT -8
Heads up! I'm not quite sure what to make of this... It's a breach, but it's not decisive; so it could be overthrow. Need more data. AAPL TWO-DAY CHART: MACD starting to look good on that chart, as long as it keeps turning up.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 15, 2012 13:44:16 GMT -8
RG, I noticed that also. Got a little histo action going on also. Come on baby, my girl needs new shoes. ;D Plus I would like to enjoy Vegas next week.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 18, 2012 9:53:00 GMT -8
(...)If you recall that 2-year chart was a picture of consistency. Indeed! And guess where we're sitting once again?! AAPL TWO-DAY CHART:
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 20, 2012 12:32:52 GMT -8
AAPL TWO-DAY CHART: See that spike on the bottom of the green candle when we put in our low in MAY'12? That's what we want to see. From this chart, it appears that "might" happen at the pink line...around 590-ish. Regardless, we want to see a green bullish engulfing candle with a spikey bottom.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 12:36:05 GMT -8
For the record, I distinctly recall myself saying that trendlines are really more like guidelines, and breaches of the trendlines can easily happen.
I think those parallel channels you drew up sometime ago could also be very instructive.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 20, 2012 12:38:31 GMT -8
The Fib-bow Bright ones?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 12:39:24 GMT -8
No, the 4-zone white parallel trendlines.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 20, 2012 12:41:38 GMT -8
AAPL TWO-DAY CHART: Confluence!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 20, 2012 12:43:36 GMT -8
Interesting...
(Although the MM-and-the-heck-I-care-about-anything-else people would probably put the target as low as 583...blech.)
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Post by aaplexcelsior on Oct 21, 2012 2:30:29 GMT -8
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 21, 2012 7:01:36 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 21, 2012 8:51:40 GMT -8
I do not see anything of value going back before March of 2009. Even going back to the low of 2009, it still points to 58ish. That line is it, break that line and who knows where it goes.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 9:31:53 GMT -8
Some additional perspective re: the markets - the S&P 500 has been in uptrend since around June. It's nowhere near Fib retracement levels of concern yet.
Meanwhile? AAPL's giving up nearly all of its 570-705 move. TICBW(tm) (though I could be wrong), that sounds like AAPL is leading in terms of price correction. Which is why I'm thinking AAPL will bounce before the broader markets calm down. That may well not be the same as resuming an uptrend but hey, we take what the market gives us.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 21, 2012 12:10:06 GMT -8
Mav, after this past week of crappy earnings, Do you see up or down? I think the market has started a correction. What do you think AAPL will do with the market (S&P) dropping 100 points?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 21, 2012 12:10:51 GMT -8
Not a fan of Andrew's Pitchfork (that line-drawing tool). I like log scales for long-term analysis, but the strongest (most relevant) trendline will connect the MOST tops and bottoms. Eyeballing it, I can see better trendlines.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 12:25:35 GMT -8
I don't know! I really don't know technicals. The S&P may be due for a retrace from the big move starting in June. Technically, that's actually a healthy sign...as long as a retrace is all it ends up being.
But if the S&P goes down 5%, I expect AAPL to have been over that a while ago. AAPL is devaluing much, much faster than its peer group. It looks like a leading indicator. I expect a lot of AAPL analysts to be pounding the table before long, and particularly below 600.
What do you think, iPad?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 21, 2012 12:30:41 GMT -8
Well, I know my technicals, and I concur with Mav that we (and the Nas) led this downtrend, so we're much further along in our correction, while SPX and DJI have some catching up to do. Here are the weekly charts all together with SMA-34: AAPL and SPY on top, then the indices below.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 12:32:22 GMT -8
I dunno - whatcha think iPad? An actual retrace of the June SPX move seems pretty healthy IMHO - though the markets in general might get spooked by that.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 21, 2012 12:34:10 GMT -8
I really don't see AAPL losing the daily SMA-200.
SPY's overdue for a pullback. If we're going to go higher, it would be healthier to retrace here...or we're entering bubble territory.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 12:36:19 GMT -8
Wow. We agree.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 21, 2012 12:37:45 GMT -8
I. Told. You. (Refers to me telling Mav a long time ago that he had a natural instinct for knowing the story the technicals were telling.)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 12:48:28 GMT -8
No no no.
If anything, I'm living proof that anyone can pick up a little technicals here and there. Emphasis on little, but even a small amount can help!
It makes more sense when you step back from the numbers and lines and patterns and think of the market in terms of ebbs, flows, behaviors and tendencies.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 21, 2012 12:50:26 GMT -8
THAT is the underlying story.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 13:18:34 GMT -8
Which is why I hold Redler in increasingly high regard (NOTE: have not bought any T3 products or signed up for any free trials for any trading website or whatever at this point). Even though I disagree strongly on certain of his more fundamentals-based calls which admittedly aren't his expertise (see: "Googie" - high-beta company in looming crisis of the year, though amazingly, yes I did dare to trade it to the upside in spite of that. ;D) Anyway. Redler can talk the markets is layman's terms without sounding the least bit foolish: Power, composure, temperature, digestion, heaviness...it's almost kinda sorta like a strange combination of referring to stocks and indices like the weather and a pet. Heck, even _I_ can half-understand the stuff he's talking about. To me that shows deep expertise and fluency in the subject matter.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 24, 2012 14:06:06 GMT -8
We're right back where we were before JUL'12 earnings... AAPL DAILY CHART:
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 24, 2012 14:16:42 GMT -8
It makes more sense when you step back from the numbers and lines and patterns and think of the market in terms of ebbs, flows, behaviors and tendencies. +1
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 24, 2012 14:57:26 GMT -8
We're right back where we were before JUL'12 earnings... AAPL DAILY CHART: This is stupid but actually healthy longer-term. AAPL is getting comfortable in the 600s. A CMG this stock is most certainly not! When the FUD and the I-want-my-short-term-Apple-profits-to-boost-the-stock-NOW whiners fade more into the background, AAPL will take everyone by surprise and lead the way higher when the longer-term plan starts paying off. I think I'll start scaling back in on Friday.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 24, 2012 16:59:05 GMT -8
These few days of range-bound action gave that lower trendline time to rise a bit more. AAPL TWO-DAY CHART:
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Post by rosie on Oct 24, 2012 17:35:51 GMT -8
These few days of range-bound action gave that lower trendline time to rise a bit more. AAPL TWO-DAY CHART: First we experience the fear, followed in short order by the pain. And then perspective comes like light, flooding in. Money would be nice, too. I know, patience.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 24, 2012 18:17:50 GMT -8
AAPL DAILY CHART (with my notes):
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