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Post by rutgersguy92 on Dec 3, 2012 17:31:45 GMT -8
AAPL DAILY CHART: A few notes: 1) While the slope of the MACD-h mountain is negative (short-term: downwave in an uptrend), MACD red line is *very* close to crossing above center/zero line, which would get us back to "intermediate-term uptrend." 2) See the confluence around the (non-div adjusted) daily SMA-20, the red downtrend line, and the current 38.2% retrace spot. Not saying we're necessarily headed there, but just note there's quite the confluence. Labeling those highs and lows really adds a nice touch, Ms. IPad. Hey, any chance your sista and bro-in-law are going to the Russell Athletic Bowl in Orlando? I'm taking my group of 5, we're driving, and we'll do the bowl and Disney/Universal while we're there. Maybe AAPL can oblige me and pop before I leave, so I'm not checking every 5 minutes.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 4, 2012 14:09:39 GMT -8
AAPL DAILY CHART:
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Post by wheeles on Dec 6, 2012 2:18:46 GMT -8
Yesterday was a horrible day. Plenty of reasons for it, but there were also some technical ones. For me the most obvious one was the need for a retest of some lower bands (either daily or weekly). By my reckoning, that retest should have come either Thursday 29 November, or Friday 30 November, but instead we got a load of BS up and down days, probably thanks to weekly options. What happened yesterday would seem to be the program getting back on track, but in a bigger way to make up for the BS preceding days. On the attached chart I've added a yellow down arrow where I believe the retest should have occurred. Well as far as retests go, we had a tag of both the weekly lower acceleration band and daily lower STARC. The daily lower STARC really doesn't get hit often. Looking at shorter timeframes, these quick retest moves like yesterday end at the lower STARC band, and not the lower Bollingers. (Trust me, I've been caught out before looking for a lower Bollinger and was annoyed at the lower STARC reversing the move when it was hit.) The additional tag of the weekly lower acceleration band gives additional hope that this move down is done. A pattern I have seen often is that a move down ends with the pattern of the lower STARC getting hit, then a bounce to the 13 EMA, followed by a test of the inside of the acceleration band, and then a bounce to the middle Bollinger. On the weekly chart we have had all but the last part: the move to the middle Bollinger. (Admittedly, what follows the middle Bollinger can be another move to the lower Bollinger, but lets worry about that once we are back at the middle Bollinger). Another pattern I am considering, which is slightly longer term is an oscillation between the weekly Bollinger/acceleration bands, which will burn off a lot of the overbought status of the monthly chart. If AAPL keeps performing then I see that happening rather than a complete collapse in the stock. It could well be that the 505 low was the first down oscillation of that pattern and because it came down hard, we have needed this retest to happen before moving to the opposite weekly Bollinger or acceleration band. So, what am I concluding? Firstly, I think this move down is done. We might get a quick flush at the open, but if lots of analysts come out and pump AAPL that might not happen. After any flush I believe we might start to see a steady climb towards the weekly middle Bollinger. Then, either we head back down to the weekly lower Bollinger again, or we carry straight on to the weekly upper Bollinger/acceleration band and a potential new all time high. The decision point comes at that weekly middle Bollinger, which is around 620. I'll caveat all this by saying none of this may happen, as news, rumors, analysts etc can derail the best laid plans.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 6, 2012 3:31:48 GMT -8
Excellent post, Birdie! Thank you so much!
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Post by wheeles on Dec 6, 2012 14:23:40 GMT -8
So, what am I concluding? Firstly, I think this move down is done. We might get a quick flush at the open, but if lots of analysts come out and pump AAPL that might not happen. After any flush I believe we might start to see a steady climb towards the weekly middle Bollinger. Then, either we head back down to the weekly lower Bollinger again, or we carry straight on to the weekly upper Bollinger/acceleration band and a potential new all time high. The decision point comes at that weekly middle Bollinger, which is around 620. OK, so we got the flush, and it was quite brutal. Then we got a quite generous bounce. No doubt people are thinking of this as the same as 16 November. However... I have a nagging feeling that this move down may not be finished. I made plenty of arguments for it being the bottom, but I am beginning to wonder whether there is another leg down to come. I'm still looking at the monthly chart and that middle Bollinger is staring back at me. That's around 500. Where the 16 November bounce occurred, the move came of a combination of features on the daily and weekly charts, and today the low corresponded once more with features on the daily and weekly charts, but nothing on the monthly chart. In my opinion, this whole breakdown in AAPL stems from a break of the monthly upper acceleration band. So far there have been no obvious features on the monthly chart that have corresponded to these two bounces. Instead they have come somewhere between the 13 EMA and the middle Bollinger. I have a gut feeling that the pressure on AAPL will not end until we see that monthly middle Bollinger hit. On the daily chart we closed still below the downtrend line. This could still be a dead cat bounce to that trend line before the move down continues. On the 4H chart we are still below the lower acceleration band and the high of all three bars today (I'm looking at AH too) correspond with that acceleration band, so it is proving to be resistance. We would need to get above that and then retest it from the other side to be sure of more of a move up. On the 10m chart we topped out at the 200 EMA and have failed to breach it. So, what are my thoughts now? Well, I think we see a retest of today's lows. At that point AAPL could be vulnerable to a further breakdown if those desperate for that head and shoulders pattern to play out pile in. That would cause more sellers and shorts to join in. However, at that point I think they could be caught out when the middle Bollinger is hit, as they expect 430 or something, but instead experience a lot of support followed by a counter move which takes us up all the way into January and something like 680, possibly even 720. Why the change of perspective? Well, this morning's post was focused on the weekly chart, and what it would do in isolation, but now when I look at the monthly, a quite different picture emerges, and I like to believe that if you have to choose between two charts, choose the one with the longest timeframe as it has more "force" behind it. Anyway, I doubt this post will please many people, but the ultimate outcome is the same (higher in the end) even if the journey to get there is a bit different.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 6, 2012 20:24:03 GMT -8
BB, if we get to 720 in Jan I will owe you a beer, or three. Lol
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 7, 2012 1:21:09 GMT -8
Another excellent post, Birdie! Thank you!
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Post by wheeles on Dec 7, 2012 7:33:32 GMT -8
BB, if we get to 720 in Jan I will owe you a beer, or three. Lol We're only likely to get there if January earnings are a blow out. I have no idea what impact January options might have, and that sort of high might take longer to arrive as a result.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 7, 2012 7:34:50 GMT -8
Another excellent post, Birdie! Thank you! Apologies for the schizophrenic two opposing posts. Sometimes things happen which make you change your perspective.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 7, 2012 13:36:58 GMT -8
Another excellent post, Birdie! Thank you! Apologies for the schizophrenic two opposing posts. Sometimes things happen which make you change your perspective. Birdie, no apologies necessary! It's called being a good, non-biased trader, and I very much admire you for that!! The market is dynamic, not static; IMHO, refusing to change your POV when the market changes its POV (new developments change the technical landscape) often leads to losses.
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Post by alice on Dec 7, 2012 13:52:16 GMT -8
Wheeles, what timeframe do you see aapl hitting the monthly middle BB of 500? Thanks. I hope it is soon so aapl can move in the other direction. Will aapl see a Santa rally?
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Post by wheeles on Dec 7, 2012 18:35:20 GMT -8
Wheeles, what timeframe do you see aapl hitting the monthly middle BB of 500? Thanks. I hope it is soon so aapl can move in the other direction. Will aapl see a Santa rally? Alice, if it's going to happen, then probably next week. I had thought there might be an outside chance of it happening today, but weekly options expiration helped to put a floor in at 530-532. Next week is monthly options expiration. There is a big wall of puts sitting at 500, so that gives further weight to the notion that the middle monthly Bollinger is where things stop. However, there is still every possibility that we go past that. Avi is saying 473-500. I notice that the monthly lower STARC band is around 473 (not sure on the exact value), so that, too, would be my idea of the lowest it could go. If I am short and we hit 500, then I would be looking to cover. As to how long we sit around 500, I do not know. We could go into the end of the year with AAPL trying hard to climb higher, but keep getting knocked back. I guess much depends on the options picture for January. Santa rally? Possibly. The last few years it has happened and it was highly computer driven. The moves looked very perfect and the angle of ascent in most cases was extremely uniform. I guess it all depends whether the computers are in bearish or bullish mode.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2012 18:49:39 GMT -8
Santa Rally off the fiscal slope? Only if there's a "solution", I bet. More uncertainty shouldn't do the market any favors. At least all that FEAR and the downgrade happened well before the Santa Rally last year.
For now, while 500 isn't off the table, it can't be assumed either. 530 is the new line in the sand. Of course, if THAT fails, then I'll probably test an AAPL hedge.
Btw, IF 473, I think there could be significantly more pain than that. Anyone see what I see Nov. 16 or so to today, maybe starting a little further back in Nov.? Looks like a 80-point drop from wherever we're supposed to measure, that is if it triggers.
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Post by alice on Dec 7, 2012 19:50:05 GMT -8
Wheeles, what timeframe do you see aapl hitting the monthly middle BB of 500? Thanks. I hope it is soon so aapl can move in the other direction. Will aapl see a Santa rally? Alice, if it's going to happen, then probably next week. I had thought there might be an outside chance of it happening today, but weekly options expiration helped to put a floor in at 530-532. Next week is monthly options expiration. There is a big wall of puts sitting at 500, so that gives further weight to the notion that the middle monthly Bollinger is where things stop. However, there is still every possibility that we go past that. Avi is saying 473-500. I notice that the monthly lower STARC band is around 473 (not sure on the exact value), so that, too, would be my idea of the lowest it could go. If I am short and we hit 500, then I would be looking to cover. As to how long we sit around 500, I do not know. We could go into the end of the year with AAPL trying hard to climb higher, but keep getting knocked back. I guess much depends on the options picture for January. Santa rally? Possibly. The last few years it has happened and it was highly computer driven. The moves looked very perfect and the angle of ascent in most cases was extremely uniform. I guess it all depends whether the computers are in bearish or bullish mode. Next week is not monthly OE. Monthly OE is in 2 weeks. Does that mean aapl will hold 500 till at least after monthly OE? Thanks.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 20:02:03 GMT -8
Alice, there are no sure things concerning holding anything right now. We have had 2 major capitulations in 2 weeks. A reasonable person would assume that to be a bottom. Problem is, the market is not reasonable. it seems that in the last 2 month the market has set up signals only to completely go the opposite. As I have told you in the past, we need confirmation, we did not get the follow through today. The 555 early was just another gap set-up. This was done to keep it from gaining momentum moving up. It was easy for them to raise it in PM on lower volume, then start the machines. All those gap up and downs have really annoyed me.
Some may scoff, but I stand behind my beliefs, if money is involved, there will be manipulation by people who can.
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Post by mbeauch on Dec 7, 2012 20:02:49 GMT -8
Dec 21st is monthly OE.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 8, 2012 3:47:08 GMT -8
Alice, if it's going to happen, then probably next week. I had thought there might be an outside chance of it happening today, but weekly options expiration helped to put a floor in at 530-532. Next week is monthly options expiration. There is a big wall of puts sitting at 500, so that gives further weight to the notion that the middle monthly Bollinger is where things stop. However, there is still every possibility that we go past that. Avi is saying 473-500. I notice that the monthly lower STARC band is around 473 (not sure on the exact value), so that, too, would be my idea of the lowest it could go. If I am short and we hit 500, then I would be looking to cover. As to how long we sit around 500, I do not know. We could go into the end of the year with AAPL trying hard to climb higher, but keep getting knocked back. I guess much depends on the options picture for January. Santa rally? Possibly. The last few years it has happened and it was highly computer driven. The moves looked very perfect and the angle of ascent in most cases was extremely uniform. I guess it all depends whether the computers are in bearish or bullish mode. Next week is not monthly OE. Monthly OE is in 2 weeks. Does that mean aapl will hold 500 till at least after monthly OE? Thanks. My bad. Got my dates mixed up. To be honest, there is nothing stopping it from getting hit next week. Options expiration only seems to really start take effect beginning on the Thursday for weeklies and perhaps the Monday of OE week for monthlies. Just because there is support at 500 for the monthlies, that does not mean it can't be hit before the week of expiration, or even go below it. It's not meant as a target, but something that will act to slow the fall, or possibly reverse it. The further we are out, the less of an effect it will have. Also, options open interest is dynamic, so if the price spends several days or a week beyond a level that had a lot of open interest resisting the price from being where it is, those levels of open interest will go down as people cash in their profits.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 8, 2012 3:51:52 GMT -8
Alice, there are no sure things concerning holding anything right now. We have had 2 major capitulations in 2 weeks. A reasonable person would assume that to be a bottom. Problem is, the market is not reasonable. it seems that in the last 2 month the market has set up signals only to completely go the opposite. As I have told you in the past, we need confirmation, we did not get the follow through today. The 555 early was just another gap set-up. This was done to keep it from gaining momentum moving up. It was easy for them to raise it in PM on lower volume, then start the machines. All those gap up and downs have really annoyed me. Some may scoff, but I stand behind my beliefs, if money is involved, there will be manipulation by people who can. The action we tend to see in AAPL is a move back to the VWAP and then that move gets faded. It happens going up and down. What you are seeing is it happening on the way down, but it does happen on the way up but in a less pronounced way. You can thank all these dark pools and HFT machines for introducing this sort of behaviour to AAPL. Now a lot of my calls for contrarian moves relate simply to this behaviour. The only problem is that they don't always happen.
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Post by rickag on Dec 8, 2012 10:49:56 GMT -8
BB, if we get to 720 in Jan I will owe you a beer, or three. Lol We're only likely to get there if January earnings are a blow out. I have no idea what impact January options might have, and that sort of high might take longer to arrive as a result. So I read this as $680 - $720 after blowout earnings. Any thoughts on highs before earnings?
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Post by wheeles on Dec 8, 2012 12:16:48 GMT -8
We're only likely to get there if January earnings are a blow out. I have no idea what impact January options might have, and that sort of high might take longer to arrive as a result. So I read this as $680 - $720 after blowout earnings. Any thoughts on highs before earnings? I'm trying to present a big picture of how I think things will play out, but you (and others) ask something which I cannot possibly answer with any degree of certainty, and that is to either give dates for specific highs or lows, or to give prices for specific times. That's a bit like asking me what next week's lottery numbers will be. All I have are a few charts with a few moving averages and bands on them. I am trying to take observations of many years watching AAPL and applying those to what I have in front of me. What I don't have is a crystal ball and an ability to predict the future of how various macro events play out. All my predictions are based on the price hitting this band or that moving average at some point in the future. These, by their very nature, are dynamic, so they alter over time. Macro-economic events speed or slow the price towards these chart features and hence change the price at which those lines get hit. Sometimes the predictions play out quickly, and at other times it is particularly laboured and only get there eventually in a much longer time frame than expected. So, to answer your question, I have absolutely no idea.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 8, 2012 16:25:19 GMT -8
I'm trying to present a big picture of how I think things will play out, but you (and others) ask something which I cannot possibly answer with any degree of certainty, and that is to either give dates for specific highs or lows, or to give prices for specific times. That's a bit like asking me what next week's lottery numbers will be. (...) So, to answer your question, I have absolutely no idea. Agree with everything Birdie said. People too often want a precise itinerary, like a train schedule, with specific stops, dates, and times. Not only is this asking/expecting the impossible, it's a never-ending question. If you give a WAG about one stop, it's always "and then what?" Give another WAG, and then, "and then what?" The market is a chess game. Every step of the way, the next move is: up, down, sideways. Every step of the way, you have IF/THEN scenarios. The other one I see all the time: "What's the probability of thus-and-such?" Uh, lemme just program that into my super-computer-program-here and get you a percentage... WTF?!?! Here's the answer: NO ONE KNOWS! All we have -- all we EVER have -- is levels to watch. Break one, target the next one. Fail to break, turn around and go the other way. That's it. Every time. That's the magic formula. The support and resistance levels are the breadcrumbs. Follow them. How low will we go? NO ONE KNOWS. We only have levels to watch. We are watching and waiting for a sizeable bounce -- one that isn't completely retraced. When will it happen? NO ONE KNOWS. Watch the moving averages on any timeframe. Where is price in terms of moving averages? If it's moving above the MAs, we're trending up. If it's moving below them, we're trending down. How long? NO ONE KNOWS! Watch MACD-h to gauge the strength of the prevailing trend. Increasing or decreasing? Often, the train slows down before reversing...so look for signs of slowing down. Then wait for price to confirm or invalidate your thesis. Measure the "retrace" percentage of any impulsive move to gauge the strength of the commitment to that move (is it just a counter-trend bounce?). How much ground do you give up?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 8, 2012 17:25:08 GMT -8
I'll put it out there (again) for discussion a little later: In addition to the curious blob of a formation that kinda looks like a macro H&S from certain angles (you all know which one), there's that more "normal" looking one that started in mid-November, maybe a few days earlier. Surely I'm not just seeing things here on the smaller one, am I?
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Post by rickag on Dec 9, 2012 7:31:50 GMT -8
So I read this as $680 - $720 after blowout earnings. Any thoughts on highs before earnings? I'm trying to present a big picture of how I think things will play out, but you (and others) ask something which I cannot possibly answer with any degree of certainty, and that is to either give dates for specific highs or lows, or to give prices for specific times. That's a bit like asking me what next week's lottery numbers will be. All I have are a few charts with a few moving averages and bands on them. I am trying to take observations of many years watching AAPL and applying those to what I have in front of me. What I don't have is a crystal ball and an ability to predict the future of how various macro events play out. All my predictions are based on the price hitting this band or that moving average at some point in the future. These, by their very nature, are dynamic, so they alter over time. Macro-economic events speed or slow the price towards these chart features and hence change the price at which those lines get hit. Sometimes the predictions play out quickly, and at other times it is particularly laboured and only get there eventually in a much longer time frame than expected. So, to answer your question, I have absolutely no idea. Thank you for taking the time in your detailed response.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 11:39:35 GMT -8
Okay, group exercise... What do you see in this chart? What can you tell about: Bollinger bands, moving averages, Fast Sto, MACD-h...anything else...? AAPL DAILY CHART:
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Post by bribery on Dec 9, 2012 12:57:01 GMT -8
Okay, group exercise... What do you see in this chart? What can you tell about: Bollinger bands, moving averages, Fast Sto, MACD-h...anything else...? AAPL DAILY CHART: OK, let's try - I want to learn 1) MACD just crossed into the negative domain, indicating beginning of downtrend? Can we say anything about its slope, since there's only one histogram bar in the negative? 2) We might be retesting the lower BB, again? Would that correspond to the 516.29 level that you point out? 3) the AO... 34 SMA midpoint - 5 SMA = negative with worsening momentum?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 13:14:35 GMT -8
MACD-h - lagging indicator, but BLAH. Higher low in play, but fighting pseudo-mutant-macro H&S and related bear-side "sentiment" and what I guess is the tinfoil November-to-now H&S since only I seem to be seeing it Not sure if there might be a pennant or wedge or something in play using 505.75 and 516.29 on the bottom and Pick Your Downtrend Line™ on the top. Not being anywhere near the SMA-200 = Bad Signal™. BBs actually look a bit like range contraction is a possibility. Very different from the weekly. Not liking the look of that red triangle on the MACD-h, but we all kind of knew that already given the sharp fall from 594ish. Mostly negative IMHO, but with a small potential positive.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 15:43:18 GMT -8
OK, let's try - I want to learn 1) MACD just crossed into the negative domain, indicating beginning of downtrend? Can we say anything about its slope, since there's only one histogram bar in the negative? 2) We might be retesting the lower BB, again? Would that correspond to the 516.29 level that you point out? 3) the AO... 34 SMA midpoint - 5 SMA = negative with worsening momentum? YAY, Bribery!! Thrilled to have you play with us!! 1) Good reading on MACD! When I look at the lower histogram (the "Awesome Oscillator," ha!), it appears to have two bars, so I would say negative slope. In which case, we have: downwave in a downtrend. 2) Good read on the lower BB! You got it! 3) This one I didn't understand? Can you elaborate? EDIT: Oh, I get it! AO = Awesome Oscillator! Haha! I'm not used to identifying that one since it's labeled as a regular MACD on Stockcharts, with just that more sensitive setting. So, see my comments on #1...
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 15:49:37 GMT -8
One additional note on MACD... I think this, too, is what Bribery was saying.... Looking at the lower histogram... It "appears" at this point, we may potentially be setting up for bullish divergence. Price has not yet made a lower low, but it's close. However, the histogram valley -- again, at this point only -- appears notably smaller/shorter than the previous range. IF so, this would indicate waning momentum -- sellers' exhaustion. (Seriously, sellers, you SHOULD be exhausted...smoke a cigarette, roll over, and friggin' go to sleep already! )
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 16:00:56 GMT -8
Mav:
I'm not sure on the pennant/wedge... On iPad now...need to see on laptop.
What do you think about the edges of the BBs? I was wondering if they were starting to curl outward?
I, too, hate the distance from the daily SMA-200. But you know, like we kept hearing on the initial rise to 644, things can only get SO far extended before they snap (often violently) the other way. I'm ready for more violent upside. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 16:03:45 GMT -8
I gotta get on freestockcharts (Silverlight on my main Mac? NEVAR!) but the BB "trend" doesn't look nearly as bad as the weekly chart, though I can see the interpretation of BB expansion too. The pennant/wedge would be quite a stretch, given how "far out" those low data points (505ish, 518ish, 530?) are, and how crazy the "high price" action has been all the nauseating way down from 705 (for net AAPL bulls, anyway).
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