chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jan 17, 2014 15:23:42 GMT -8
The bar is open! <insert !cheers! smiley here>
Despite the disappointment, at least we can say this was a green week.
I say still lots of positive catalysts ahead. And if Mav's $16 EPS call comes true...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2014 15:48:10 GMT -8
Agreed, can't help but he happy with a green result on LEAP expiry week!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 17, 2014 15:50:39 GMT -8
$15. Not $16...that's a bridge way too far...
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 17, 2014 16:01:36 GMT -8
15 bucks? Ahead of me by 2 cents? Really.....forget all that work you did, you just copied me . :-)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 17, 2014 16:13:04 GMT -8
It's even worse than you think...my actual EPS is $14.97. #groupthink
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2014 16:15:47 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 17, 2014 16:23:26 GMT -8
OK, now that LEAPS are over with, perhaps we can get back to begin some semblance of fundamental reality.
Hard for me to imagine that Tim Cook makes a trip all the way out to Beijing and then Apple doesn't issue a first weekend sales release on Tuesday.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 17, 2014 16:51:21 GMT -8
I think cm issues the press release. It's their new network getting the pump
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 17, 2014 16:58:43 GMT -8
I think cm issues the press release. It's their new network getting the pump I don't care if the numbers are announced through The AAPL Tree, so long as it is some good news.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 17, 2014 17:03:23 GMT -8
Joint release by Apple and CM would make sense, considering the deal announcement
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Post by nagrani on Jan 17, 2014 17:05:40 GMT -8
Has there ever been a Carrier announcement on sales of an iPhone? Verizon do it?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 17, 2014 17:06:12 GMT -8
I think never
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Post by rickag on Jan 17, 2014 18:04:51 GMT -8
It's going to be a long weekend waiting to hear actual numbers. The FUD will be unrelenting.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 17, 2014 18:22:14 GMT -8
I may be wrong but something tells me that CHL Chairman Xi Guohua will not ALLOW his venture to fail. I really would be shocked if there wasn't good news. This guy will announce good news even if he has to personally buy a boatload and give them to thousands of his personal friends. He will not lose face on this one. I'm just sayin
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Post by nagrani on Jan 17, 2014 18:30:36 GMT -8
Guys. Why do you think there is going to be an announcement this Monday???
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Post by mcharliem on Jan 17, 2014 20:43:47 GMT -8
Since this was the biggest expiration day of the year, I thought it's as good a time as any to bring up a topic that a lot of people on here seem to get the basic gist of, but don't realize the full impact of it: put/call parity.
I feel like most on here can explain why a bullish put spread and a bullish call spread are similar. I also feel like most can explain why being short a put is similar to being long stock with a covered call at the same strike. But at the same time, I've seen people who demonstrate a basic understanding of put/call parity spend a significant amount of energy analyzing trends that are complete violations of put/call parity. If you believe that any of these trends have any significance whatsoever, then you're attempting to disprove put/call parity:
- The ratio of puts to calls in open interest at a given strike, or all strikes - the ratio of volume or a change in OI for puts and calls at a given strike, or all strikes - any reference to "call walls" or "put walls"
There's a two-step explanation that I'll go into, but the short answer is that puts and calls are identical and indistinguishable. If you want to analyze them, you have to analyze the sum of the two at a given strike. It sounds harsh because so many people on here do it, but separating puts from calls and comparing them to each other is pointless, and here's why.
1) All option trades can be easily hedged with underlying stock. This doesn't mean that all trades are hedged, but it means that any option trade that isn't hedged is purposefully unhedged. If you buy three 550 AAPL calls that have a 33 delta, you've bought roughly 100 deltas. If you hedge by selling 100 shares, your trade will have no impact on the underlying stock. If you don't hedge, you'll have the same impact as if you'd just bought 100 shares. If you're not hedging, it's because you want to take those deltas on, but either way the decision is made before you even finishing submitting the trade. Now keep in mind, that while I'd guess that over 90% of the trades that people on this board make are made with the intention of adding or subtracting deltas, when it comes to option traders and option market makers, it's the opposite. Almost all of their trades are hedged, and if they're not, it's specifically because they're attempting to change their deltas in a given stock.
2) it doesn't matter whether you're long calls or you're long puts, it's the same exact position. Now obviously, buying a put and buying a call have opposite delta effects. But the initial delta is the only difference between the two actions, so for anyone that is hedging, buying a call and buying a put is the exact same trade. And anyone who isn't hedging isn't creating any sort of different option position, they're just essentially buying an equivalent number of underlying shares equal to the delta of their options. To prove that buying calls and buying puts is identical, consider these two trades. Trader A buys 100 at-the-money 540 calls with a 50 delta for $10 a piece and hedges by shorting 5000 shares as part of the trade. Trader B buys 100 540 puts, also at $10, which are then hedged to the purchase of 5000 shares. The natural instinct would be to think that trader A, owning calls, wants the stock to go up, and Trader B, owning puts, would want the stock to go down. But in reality, they both want the same thing, for the stock to significantly move in either direction. Let's say the stock tanks immediately and goes 20 points down to 520. There's no way of knowing exactly what the price of the 540 calls will now be, but given the price of the call, we can know exactly what the price of the corresponding put will be, thanks to put/call parity. If after the 20 point drop in AAPL the 540 call is trading for $3, it's a fundamental fact of parity that the 540 put will be trading for $23. The math on the two positions works out as such:
Trader A) short 5000 shares down $20 = 100k. Long 100 calls down $7 = -70k. Net up 30k. Trader B) long 5000 shares down $20 = -100k. Long 100 puts up $13 = 130k. Net up 30k.
Now I chose $3 for the value of those calls post dip, but you can plug any price in there and both traders profit equally in any scenario.
So here's the end result of all of this: once an option trade has been made, if someone wanted to hedge, they would have. Either way, the fact that they now own a put or a call is completely and 100% irrelevant. Their PnL and the rest of their option Greeks will all move exactly the same whether they have all calls or all puts. If someone is short a ton of calls at a given strike, it's exactly the same as being short a ton of puts at the same strike. The whole reason I'm bringing this up is because I see so much effort on these boards analyzing discrepancies between puts and calls, and it's just wasted effort that should be applied elsewhere. If an option market maker buys 500 calls or 500 puts, they don't care, it's completely arbitrary. So the next time you see someone referencing 10,000 calls and 1,000 puts, please keep in mind it's exactly the same as seeing 1,000 calls and 10,000 puts. It's the fundamental nature of put/call parity.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 18, 2014 5:51:43 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Jan 18, 2014 8:45:19 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 18, 2014 9:29:15 GMT -8
Lots of really cool technology here, but I just have trouble thinking that a product that specialized has the market size potential to be a meaningful opportunity for Apple. Also, my guess is that the approval process for any quasi-medical, as opposed to fitness, product on a world-wide basis would be a substantial barrier.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 18, 2014 9:47:28 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 18, 2014 10:22:07 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 18, 2014 12:06:25 GMT -8
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2014 13:36:12 GMT -8
Bless them, those crazy fanatical Appleites. Brisbane actually already has a handful of suburban Apple stores, this is simply the first one in the CBD so I imagine most locals don't have much reason to get excited. Looks nicely done though, will check it out when I'm there in a few weeks.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2014 13:57:04 GMT -8
I don't believe it, an analyst who actually did research before speaking. I like this Keith chap.
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Post by artman1033 on Jan 18, 2014 14:57:52 GMT -8
Please drive carefully!
This video is best viewed in full screen!
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Post by redinaustin on Jan 18, 2014 15:27:28 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 18, 2014 17:00:14 GMT -8
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Post by redinaustin on Jan 19, 2014 4:25:19 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 19, 2014 5:10:36 GMT -8
The insanity is laughable this morning .... you have people posting (i.e. stocktwits) that the iPhone is sold out at China Mobile and others saying they have tons in stock.....naturally, no one proves it by posting any type of credible link. For lack of a better word, it's just frigging stupid. Thank goodness I will be watching football most of today!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 19, 2014 7:53:16 GMT -8
It's pretty easy to tell if a particular region is reporting they have stock. That "buy" button will be an out of stock warning instead. Surf CM iPhone buy page plus use Google Translate. But don't just use Google Translate or you _would_ think there's massive sellouts.
As far as Apple there's no way they won't be able to deliver a large amount of iPhones. The question is demand. Fortunately expectations are muted.
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