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Post by theirishguy on Sept 17, 2012 11:25:43 GMT -8
AT&T said the new iPhone 5, available on Sept. 21, set a sales record over the weekend, "making it the fastest-selling iPhone the company has ever offered." very promising! tinyurl.com/9ncw9pn
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 17, 2012 11:31:25 GMT -8
Marc, I think the difference is that you are using the BB SMA (that's what I assume at least), but I am using the BB EMA. But even using the SMA, I expect AAPL to catch up with the upper BB (i.e. fall into the BB range again) shortly. This could be around in the 690-693 area by tomorrow. As for the time frame, it doesn't matter whether you're using a 3, 6 or 9 month daily chart, the upper BB is always the same. Poor choice of wording on my part Plato. When I said time-frame I was meaning 5 min, hourly, daily, weekly, etc...... That is what I hoped to convey when I mentioned both the daily and weekly, sorry for the confusion. Yes I am using the default SMA which has dropped down to 691.xx. That is why I feel we need to hold above Friday's close to really see the worm turn. The net money flow is negative, so fingers are crossed.
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Post by stevereel on Sept 17, 2012 11:32:00 GMT -8
Technically, it would be healthy to consolidate a day or 2 around 700. Fundamentally, we should get some great sales numbers in a press release soon... and again at Earnings. I'm trying to not trade and just hold what I have. May need to sit on my hands.
Thanks to lovey for setting up our "temporary" hangout, and all who helped with the links and the orderly move.
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Post by theirishguy on Sept 17, 2012 11:33:52 GMT -8
iPhone 5 Sales Predicted to Hit 8 Million Units in Launch Weekend Following Apple's announcement earlier today that it took two million iPhone 5 pre-orders in the first 24 hours of availability, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster has published a new research note predicting that Apple will achieve sales in the range of 6-10 million units for the opening weekend, with the mid-range number of 8 million units being used for modeling purposes. Munster bases his predictions on the strong pre-order numbers and comparisons to last year's performance for the iPhone 4S. Given the 2 million pre-orders, we remain confident that Apple can deliver 8 million (range of 6-10 million) iPhones in the launch weekend. The reason we are confident in the 8 million is two-fold. First, initial 24 hour pre-orders for the iPhone 5 were up 100% y/y from the iPhone 4S. Last year, pre-orders accounted for 25% of total weekend launch unit sales. Assuming the same initial pre-order/retail distribution, the pre-order total would suggest 8 million launch units. Last year, Apple reported that first-day pre-orders for the iPhone 4S "topped one million", with that number translating into over four million units sold in the opening weekend of actual sales. www.macrumors.com/2012/09/17/iphone-5-sales-predicted-to-hit-8-million-units-in-launch-weekend/
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Post by Apple II+ on Sept 17, 2012 11:36:09 GMT -8
... I joined the new AFB2 as I just wanted to pose a question to anyone who cares to answer. "Did anyone else expect a higher pre orders number than 2 million for the first day?" I have ordered my iphone 5 already. But I felt 2 million seemed light considering the demand I know there is for iphone5 and also most are projecting 100 million plus iphones sold in 2012, so I expected more like 5 to 7 million for the first day. I am just wondering what anyone else in the group thought thank you for all the great information The pre-order allotment sold out in less than an hour. That's easily the majority of the sales. The rest of the first 24 hours was slower because the phones would no longer be delivered on the first day. Clearly, if they allotted more for pre-orders, they would have sold more the first day. Not sure it could have hit your desired 5 to 7 million range, but perhaps yes.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 17, 2012 11:36:19 GMT -8
Hey everyone I am a long time reader of AFB and a long term aapl investor common/options, but I never post messages, haha. I enjoy all the personalities in the group and think it is really important for the group to maintain some cohesiveness since the update, as your thoughts help many people outside the group understand aapl and the group is kinda like a mini tribal group which is cool. I live in Canada, and I am a Scientist and Lawyer but also love investing in apple. I joined the new AFB2 as I just wanted to pose a question to anyone who cares to answer. "Did anyone else expect a higher pre orders number than 2 million for the first day?" I have ordered my iphone 5 already. But I felt 2 million seemed light considering the demand I know there is for iphone5 and also most are projecting 100 million plus iphones sold in 2012, so I expected more like 5 to 7 million for the first day. I am just wondering what anyone else in the group thought thank you for all the great information Lance Personally I think processing 2 million transactions in a day is an astonishing feat. Trying to spin this as a failure seems fishy to me.
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Post by Plato on Sept 17, 2012 11:53:01 GMT -8
Marc, I think the difference is that you are using the BB SMA (that's what I assume at least), but I am using the BB EMA. But even using the SMA, I expect AAPL to catch up with the upper BB (i.e. fall into the BB range again) shortly. This could be around in the 690-693 area by tomorrow. As for the time frame, it doesn't matter whether you're using a 3, 6 or 9 month daily chart, the upper BB is always the same. Poor choice of wording on my part Plato. When I said time-frame I was meaning 5 min, hourly, daily, weekly, etc...... That is what I hoped to convey when I mentioned both the daily and weekly, sorry for the confusion. Yes I am using the default SMA which has dropped down to 691.xx. That is why I feel we need to hold above Friday's close to really see the worm turn. The net money flow is negative, so fingers are crossed. Oh sorry, yes was looking at the daily chart I think we will hold easily above Friday's closing price. Easy to say 10 min before the close ...lol. May be I have to revise my prediction and the stock price won't catch up with the upper BB, may be it is vice versa. Although, as another poster here said, it definitely would be healthy if the stock has a couple of days of consolidation. Going up from a low of 656 on Wednesday to 699, is quite the move. Since 680 was such big resistance, a correction down to that area (which should in return be now huge support), would IMO be healthy. Time will tell!
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 17, 2012 11:54:53 GMT -8
AAPL is making a go for it at the bell - let's see if it happens ;D
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Post by aapl4kiki on Sept 17, 2012 11:55:16 GMT -8
Well, it looks as if 700 is a big hurdle. Psychological hurdle for sure. Getting close here in the last 5 minutes.
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Post by PikesPique on Sept 17, 2012 11:56:33 GMT -8
Very strong push at the close.
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Post by Plato on Sept 17, 2012 11:56:50 GMT -8
Wow, what a run from 696 to 699.50 again. How about closing at 699.99 exactly??
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Post by Plato on Sept 17, 2012 12:00:49 GMT -8
ATH close AND closing at the ATH (well 2 cents below it) .. wow!!
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Post by aapl4kiki on Sept 17, 2012 12:00:57 GMT -8
Wow, what a run from 696 to 699.50 again. How about closing at 699.99 exactly?? 0.20 short - good close
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Post by phoebear611 on Sept 17, 2012 12:01:02 GMT -8
$699.80 - close but no cigar
I'll take it just the same! ;D
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Post by PikesPique on Sept 17, 2012 12:01:03 GMT -8
Nothing like closing at the HOD.
Edit: and ATH!
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2012 12:01:12 GMT -8
Nice close. 699.80
ATH, period, if I'm not mistaken.
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Post by qualitywte on Sept 17, 2012 12:02:10 GMT -8
Missed 700 by 20 cents. Closed at ATH!
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Post by Plato on Sept 17, 2012 12:02:38 GMT -8
Above 700 in AH .. at least we get to see the stock price above 700 today.
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 17, 2012 12:02:43 GMT -8
Oh sorry, yes was looking at the daily chart I think we will hold easily above Friday's closing price. Easy to say 10 min before the close ...lol. May be I have to revise my prediction and the stock price won't catch up with the upper BB, may be it is vice versa. Although, as another poster here said, it definitely would be healthy if the stock has a couple of days of consolidation. Going up from a low of 656 on Wednesday to 699, is quite the move. Since 680 was such big resistance, a correction down to that area (which should in return be now huge support), would IMO be healthy. Time will tell! Its just me, but I can't buy into that because we broke over the 683 area where we had already bounced around a few times. I don't see a retrace here as being healthy, just the opposite, it would show lack of strength to me. I still have a target of 727 until otherwise convinced. Then a pullback of the 656-727 move to 699. This is just my game-plan for now, always ready for plan B. LOL
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Post by rickag on Sept 17, 2012 12:02:52 GMT -8
Yikes, AAPL broke $700 in AHs. Woohoo
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Post by CdnPhoto on Sept 17, 2012 12:03:00 GMT -8
Beautiful close.
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Post by prazan on Sept 17, 2012 12:03:44 GMT -8
700 in AH, though it doesn't really count.
I'm slow on the draw, as usual!
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Post by lovemyipad on Sept 17, 2012 12:05:01 GMT -8
After hours Whhhhhhhhhhhhhheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2012 12:07:57 GMT -8
Btw iPad, what'd you do with your hedge? I just bit my tongue (metaphorically), took some luckily fairly light (as % of portfolio) losses and sold mine.
Prefer cash flow to insurance, but either works.
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Post by Plato on Sept 17, 2012 12:08:30 GMT -8
700 in AH, though it doesn't really count. I'm slow on the draw, as usual! It counts for the people that sold in AH above 700
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,188
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Post by JDSoCal on Sept 17, 2012 12:20:41 GMT -8
700 in AH, though it doesn't really count. I'm slow on the draw, as usual! It counts for the people that sold in AH above 700 Exactly. Plus, it's all over the news, so the psychological barrier is broken. But I'd be remiss if I didn't point out the ~32K $700 calls expiring on Friday.
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Sept 17, 2012 12:22:15 GMT -8
Not just any calls, either.
But if AAPL somehow scales that wall...heck, that'd be pretty crazy.
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Post by PikesPique on Sept 17, 2012 12:29:33 GMT -8
I have a question for the board members re: vertical spreads. Let's say I have 10 Apr '13 600/650 BCSes where the long leg cost 98.46/share and I received 70.01/share for the short leg, for a total cost of 28.45/share. If the buyer of the short leg decides to exercise the call and I must sell 1000 shares @ $650, but don't have 1000 common shares, would my brokerage automatically sell the long $600 calls in order to cover the assignment? (I use E*Trade and Fidelity). Or, would I be left holding a margin debt, up to $650,000 if I had $0 cash (worst case scenario), which I could then clear by exercising my remaining $600 call options (the long leg)? I'm still relatively new to the whole vertical spread strategies. The few I've done, so far, I've closed out prior to expiration or any pre-mature exercise hit me. These are all "American-style" options, so pre-mature exercise is possible.
I'm a little concerned about possibly getting nonexistent shares called away prior to expiration, which might happen prior to the next ex-dividend date.
Thanks for your help.
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Post by roni on Sept 17, 2012 12:30:29 GMT -8
I like $700 , but I want more this month
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Post by mbeauch on Sept 17, 2012 12:43:38 GMT -8
First off, I can't believe I am the only person who has their email posted, to funny. Secondly, I got the proboards app. Lovey, you have given the group something that was begged for in the AFB. The APP is so user friendly I am stunned. Pick your poison.
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