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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 14, 2012 15:59:52 GMT -8
Plain English translations requested once in a while: bear signal, bull signal, wait for clarity and such. Otherwise its a lot of checking Urban Dictionary and Investopedia for "island", "head and shoulders shampoo" and "MacDonald's in an AAPL tree".
Good example: "screaming buy territory" phrase by High Chartist and Executioner Lovey. That's all I need to know for now. Of course, one makes their own decisions after that.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 14, 2012 17:35:51 GMT -8
Well, daily chart points to AAPL being very oversold. But technicals aren't predictive.
Meanwhile, weekly chart doesn't say quite the same thing. Some think the trend will remain down for another week or two or more. That's what has some skeptical about the current downwave ending soon.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 14, 2012 18:16:14 GMT -8
I believe we move with the market. AAPL and the S&P are at points that leave me hopeful that we are at least close to settling down.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 14, 2012 18:23:54 GMT -8
I believe we move with the market. AAPL and the S&P are at points that leave me hopeful that we are at least close to settling down. Counterpoint: I believe this time, AAPL is actually more in the role of moving the market. I'm looking for AAPL to be more of a leading indicator...so if the markets go significantly lower, AAPL will already be leveling off, consolidating, even moving back up. I fully respect the weekly chart though. Makes me nervous about my short/intermediate-term countertrend play, but hey, that's why they're called countertrend plays. Technicals aside, I'm also looking at those psychological market levels of SPX 1400, NASDAQ 3000, and DOW 13000 (also wonder if there's anything to the DAX 7000 level as far as Euro markets). If any or all of those break, even AAPL will have trouble resisting a short-term marketwide downwave.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 20, 2012 11:01:30 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART (with my notes):
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 20, 2012 11:07:31 GMT -8
Question is, are we still in April? If we are not in May yet I may have a brain aneurysm.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 20, 2012 11:15:17 GMT -8
We need to see the weekly MACD-h make a shorter bar. It will be an even stronger signal IF price makes a lower low and MACD-h puts in a shorter bar...as the daily MACD-h is doing right now. I want to see that bullish divergence.
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Post by capablanca on Oct 21, 2012 19:48:36 GMT -8
I wholeheartedly agree. This is sound analysis. But depending on one's tolerance for risk, one might consider racking the slide and thumbing the safety.
I am without my Mac or my charts until mid-day tomorrow, so I'll just close my eyes and see if a vision appears ....
My gut tells me we are going to see a low before the end of this coming week. The problem is it could be Monday, Thursday, or even Friday. And it could be 609 or 560. So, having taken off some delta around 675, I put about half of it back on just before last Friday's close. The vehicle used was STO APR 600 puts. IV was in the mid-30s.
A lot of people (or computers) sold AAPL last week expecting that Apple will miss this coming Thursday. I believe that unlikely, so Thursday is a good candidate for the low. But if enough others come to agree that a miss is unlikely, Monday might be the winner. If I am wrong about earnings, then we get a chance to buy at 560 on Friday.
P.S. One silver lining appeared while looking at Lovey's weekly chart above: The S&P500 weekly chart looks even worse. It does seem that AAPL is the current leading the S&P voltage in a capacitive circuit.
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Post by cambrose on Oct 21, 2012 20:26:38 GMT -8
P.S. One silver lining appeared while looking at Lovey's weekly chart above: The S&P500 weekly chart looks even worse. It does seem that AAPL is the current leading the S&P voltage in a capacitive circuit. Nice Electrical engineer?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 21, 2012 21:06:37 GMT -8
We need to see the weekly MACD-h make a shorter bar. It will be an even stronger signal IF price makes a lower low and MACD-h puts in a shorter bar...as the daily MACD-h is doing right now. I want to see that bullish divergence. Remember, you don't have to. See May 25.
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Post by capablanca on Oct 22, 2012 8:23:59 GMT -8
P.S. One silver lining appeared while looking at Lovey's weekly chart above: The S&P500 weekly chart looks even worse. It does seem that AAPL is the current leading the S&P voltage in a capacitive circuit. Nice Electrical engineer? No, but I worked with enough of them. "Twinkle, twinkle little star; power equals I squared R".
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 26, 2012 16:15:42 GMT -8
Could be worse, but still looks like crap... Let's see what happens after the first of the new month when the institutions get a fresh influx of cash. AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Post by wheeles on Oct 26, 2012 16:54:22 GMT -8
If I had to pick one line where I thought this downtrend would end it is the weekly 50 EMA.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 26, 2012 19:34:30 GMT -8
Blah.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 27, 2012 13:23:00 GMT -8
Blah. Does that mean that you agree with Wheeles?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 27, 2012 14:50:12 GMT -8
Phoebes, I neither agree nor disagree.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 27, 2012 15:34:13 GMT -8
Phoebes, I neither agree nor disagree. Ah...the perfect hedge.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 27, 2012 17:09:10 GMT -8
If I had to pick one line where I thought this downtrend would end it is the weekly 50 EMA. That's at 560.60. And that would actually make this drop worse than the one in April. Me no like. But if that's what it takes to have a reversal, please let it happen on Monday and Tuesday, when I will be more concerned about surviving Hurricane "Sandy" (which happens to be one of my favorite Springsteen tunes, sans the Hurricane part) than the stock market. [It just so happens I may be at my daughter's place of employment during the storm, a local veterinarian, who also boards dogs and cats. She is a vet tech there, and since we live only a few miles away, she might be the logical one to stay on overnight to take care of the guests. Of course, being a good dad, I can't let her stay by herself, so I will be planning to do an overnighter with her. It's the same place I had my dog Sammy recover from his illness at the end of July (it was during the July earnings week).] But I will tell you what I read today from Dan Fitzpatrick's tweets: - "580-600 should be an area of a rounded bottom in aapl...with upside target of 630-640 by mid-Nov...As always, let price confirm this, tho:)" - "584/587 is major major support" - when we take out the previous day's high (614) is confirmation we are going higher - Need to reclaim the 10 day SMA (currently at 624) to get long again
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Post by wheeles on Oct 28, 2012 4:49:38 GMT -8
If I had to pick one line where I thought this downtrend would end it is the weekly 50 EMA. This was if I was forced to pick a line. That does not mean this will be the bottom, as that could happen higher or lower. This is purely based on a pullback to a line which has seen numerous pullbacks in the past. It makes little sense to compare the numerical or percentage pullback this time around with previous times if you do not take into account the parabolic rise that AAPL has been on for a very long time. Parabolic moves do not end with the price flat-lining. People like to take their profits and move on, and this results in fairly unpleasant slides. I make no predictions as to how high the next significant move up will go, as I first need to see quite where this move down ends.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 4, 2012 15:16:46 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART (with my notes):
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 4, 2012 15:29:08 GMT -8
Ridiculously oversold. The most ridiculously oversold readings Apple's seen in a couple of years?
We'll see how this week goes.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 4, 2012 19:09:15 GMT -8
Man, would I love to see a repeat of 5-21-12. Speaking of the May downtrend, I recall a similar nervousness, when we were guessing whether it would hit the 200-day at 480 or so. Never went there.
My concern if we were to hit 560 would be if that would constitute a lower low in the long term trend, since we bottomed at 570 in July.
But all technical signals show that this stock is wound the tightest it's been over the last 3 to 4 years. Here's hoping that we show a similar response to the April bottoming - after all, that's the run we're using as a comparison to the current one - and what happened from 5-19-12 to early July, when we gained about 100 points and got within 25 of the ATH. That would be a nice holiday present.
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Post by capablanca on Nov 5, 2012 10:34:46 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART (with my notes): I am in concert with your consolidation framework expressed elsewhere. This may be the low end, but I'd be surprised if we reverse here. More likely we will see 3-8 weeks of sawtooth patterns. I'll try to find time to look at this in more detail tonight.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 5, 2012 11:49:52 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART (with my notes): I am in concert with your consolidation framework expressed elsewhere. This may be the low end, but I'd be surprised if we reverse here. More likely we will see 3-8 weeks of sawtooth patterns. I'll try to find time to look at this in more detail tonight. Cap, would that sawtooth be in the horizontal position or at a 15 to 30 degree angle from lower left to upper right?
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 7, 2012 8:00:51 GMT -8
If I had to pick one line where I thought this downtrend would end it is the weekly 50 EMA. This was if I was forced to pick a line. That does not mean this will be the bottom, as that could happen higher or lower. This is purely based on a pullback to a line which has seen numerous pullbacks in the past. It makes little sense to compare the numerical or percentage pullback this time around with previous times if you do not take into account the parabolic rise that AAPL has been on for a very long time. Parabolic moves do not end with the price flat-lining. People like to take their profits and move on, and this results in fairly unpleasant slides. I make no predictions as to how high the next significant move up will go, as I first need to see quite where this move down ends. Birdie: YOU WERE RIGHT!!!!!!!!!
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Post by wheeles on Nov 7, 2012 8:37:22 GMT -8
This was if I was forced to pick a line. That does not mean this will be the bottom, as that could happen higher or lower. This is purely based on a pullback to a line which has seen numerous pullbacks in the past. It makes little sense to compare the numerical or percentage pullback this time around with previous times if you do not take into account the parabolic rise that AAPL has been on for a very long time. Parabolic moves do not end with the price flat-lining. People like to take their profits and move on, and this results in fairly unpleasant slides. I make no predictions as to how high the next significant move up will go, as I first need to see quite where this move down ends. Birdie: YOU WERE RIGHT!!!!!!!!! It certainly looks like it. Need a big bounce now.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 7, 2012 10:15:43 GMT -8
I like that weekly chart a lot better than the daily. At least there's no Death Crosses on it.
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Post by lovemyipad on Nov 7, 2012 14:14:09 GMT -8
I like that weekly chart a lot better than the daily. At least there's no Death Crosses on it. Ummmm.... AAPL WEEKLY CHART: Fast Sto is embedded in oversold territory, so it's confirming a strong downtrend more than telling us anything else, as we usually see in overbought territory. From here, we want to see it come OUT of embedded oversold territory. In JUN'11, we had a breach of the weekly SMA-50 that didn't last long, so the weekly candle shows we found support there. Let's see if history repeats...
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Nov 7, 2012 14:32:17 GMT -8
I like that weekly chart a lot better than the daily. At least there's no Death Crosses on it. Ummmm.... AAPL WEEKLY CHART: Fast Sto is embedded in oversold territory, so it's confirming the trend more than anything else. We want to see it come OUT of embedded oversold territory. Man, this downtrend makes the one in April look like kid's play. Look at the consecutive red candles, vs. the red/green pattern in April/May. I know one thing, this feels like capitulation to me - in terms on nervousness and uneasiness - even if the action today didn't confirm it.
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Post by mbeauch on Nov 7, 2012 14:41:53 GMT -8
NO capitulation. Just more confirmation. If I was holding shares I would not even be sweating, alas, I am not.
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