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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 9, 2012 17:40:52 GMT -8
So iPad, your question/request for feedback is...? More of a heads-up. Note the last times the weekly MACD line goes below center...not fun. I wasn't around then. You were. Bulls need to see that line back in positive territory, or we should all be playing from the short side on every flippin bounce.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2012 17:43:09 GMT -8
Don't get me wrong. I, sadly belatedly and probably too late to save myself (/overdrama), will be looking to hedge more than a little with AAPL put strategies if 530 fails (as in decisively, what looks to my subjective idiot mind as a clear failure, etc.) AAPL feels really heavy, at least for now. SMA-50 double-fail is a very bad sign. You want a REAL screamfest? The SMA-100 weekly. If AAPL falls through there - it's only been there twice since 2005ish, before and after the failure - the whole market is going bearish IMHO.
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Post by wheeles on Dec 10, 2012 5:47:03 GMT -8
For ages AAPL has been in a strong monthly uptrend. Now it's not, and all those observations made based on that underlying premise are being ripped to shreds. When I took issue with FA in the intraday thread it was more about people still using metrics that worked in a strong uptrend, and have failed to appreciate the change to a far more conservative period. The same goes for TA. It's like saying, always buy at the 50 DMA. It works until it doesn't.
You need to apply filters to those sorts of rules which are dependent on larger cycles. However for many people they have not experienced a change in the larger cycle so have a crisis of confidence when all the old rules suddenly don't work.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 15, 2012 18:50:02 GMT -8
For ages AAPL has been in a strong monthly uptrend. Now it's not, and all those observations made based on that underlying premise are being ripped to shreds. When I took issue with FA in the intraday thread it was more about people still using metrics that worked in a strong uptrend, and have failed to appreciate the change to a far more conservative period. The same goes for TA. It's like saying, always buy at the 50 DMA. It works until it doesn't. You need to apply filters to those sorts of rules which are dependent on larger cycles. However for many people they have not experienced a change in the larger cycle so have a crisis of confidence when all the old rules suddenly don't work. SO TRUE!!!!!!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 15, 2012 18:54:38 GMT -8
Before I got all caught up in Fibs, I loved classic, old-fashioned pivot points. As you can see, there's usually confluence with pivot points, moving averages and Fibs (also trendlines and bands). AAPL WEEKLY CHART: Weekly Pivot Points AAPL WEEKLY CHART: the usual one
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Post by po1nt on Dec 15, 2012 20:08:44 GMT -8
So I see a possible exhaustion gap and double bottom ;D Maybe?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 15, 2012 20:33:18 GMT -8
So I see a possible exhaustion gap and double bottom ;D Maybe? Yes!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 15, 2012 20:34:51 GMT -8
Maybe. But I don't think that gap shows up on the weekly. Sentiment is warping/influencing/informing (take your pick, or check all that apply ) the technicals, though. And sentiment is even more bearish than the technicals!
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 15, 2012 21:20:47 GMT -8
Maybe. But I don't think that gap shows up on the weekly. Sentiment is warping/influencing/informing (take your pick, or check all that apply ) the technicals, though. And sentiment is even more bearish than the technicals! The technicals reflect sentiment. ;D
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 18, 2012 14:40:06 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 22, 2012 15:18:56 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 22, 2012 16:17:29 GMT -8
Thanks! I've seen double red before...
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 22, 2012 16:48:30 GMT -8
One more weekly... Note EMA-100 versus SMA-100... AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 22, 2012 17:39:07 GMT -8
Whoa. IF the markets stabilize, it might not be a bad time to at least TEST an AAPL trade... Verrrry curious about Fast STO backtesting. I don't know the first thing about it but I _am_ intrigued by the lack of "W pattern" in any of those red circles. Whatever that means, though I think you get what I mean. EDIT (*looks up iPad's awesome historical weekly chart*)HOWEVER! AAPL 2005-2009 WEEKLY CHART: I don't know what Fast STO W patterns or embedded negative readings mean, except that they DO appear in that timeframe and they look BAD. Damn, just more impending inflection points. As if there's not enough to look out for already.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 22, 2012 18:29:16 GMT -8
Mav, look at this one... This is logarithmic scale, so percentage change in apple to apple terms... AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 22, 2012 18:44:52 GMT -8
Log scale...confusing! But I'll try to puzzle it out.
I still think V vs. W for the Fast STO is big, though. Inflection points, they're everywhere!
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Post by appledoc on Dec 22, 2012 19:11:50 GMT -8
Whoa. That 2005-2009 weekly chart really confused me. It looks damn near identical to the last 2+ years.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 23, 2012 1:05:57 GMT -8
Dude! You have a point.
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Post by capablanca on Dec 31, 2012 11:26:43 GMT -8
Stopped by to wish all a Happy and Prosperous New Year.
My weekly chart shows two positive signs: RSI(14) is showing positive divergence and Stochastic (10,3,10) is about to cross at very low level.
On the ambiguous side: My very long term log chart shows the price just a tad below the trend line. This could be resistance, of course, or if your glass is half full it could be evidence that the trend is holding.
MACD-h is acting OK, but not giving a strong signal in my method.
(I underscore a recent post by the bird to the effect that what works in an uptrend does not necessarily work in a downtrend.)
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 31, 2012 16:55:32 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART: NICE shorter bar (so far) on MACD-h. Bulls need to get back over 555 ASAP...do NOT want to see EMA-13 cross under EMA-50.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 6, 2013 13:12:08 GMT -8
AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 6, 2013 13:15:14 GMT -8
I'll start reading these. Tip: to get the full image, click on the attachment, then click on the next image.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 13:21:59 GMT -8
Mixed signals?
MACD-h "improving". But BBs are still not pointing to anything good I can see.
Hoping Fast STO doesn't get embedded.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 6, 2013 14:00:34 GMT -8
I'll start reading these. Tip: to get the full image, click on the attachment, then click on the next image. Yes! Click once. Then click again.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 6, 2013 14:05:37 GMT -8
Mixed signals? MACD-h "improving". But BBs are still not pointing to anything good I can see. Hoping Fast STO doesn't get embedded. Yep. Price and Fast STO should make a W. Need to take back those moving averages, one after the other. First bullish objective: taking out 555.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 6, 2013 17:30:14 GMT -8
Hmmm...taking a closer look at the weekly... Hook on the upper BB?? AAPL WEEKLY CHART:
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Post by Tetrachloride on Jan 6, 2013 18:08:12 GMT -8
The very top line ?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 18:17:49 GMT -8
Wait. We want a lower BB hook on downtrends, right? So what about the upper?
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 6, 2013 19:05:31 GMT -8
Cl4, yes, top green line. Mav, remember we were in an uptrend (en route to 644) when Dan Fitzpatrick alerted us that when the weekly lower BB was hooking, we were likely topping? At the time, the upper BB was still wide open and pointing to the sky, so naturally I didn't believe him. But once burned, twice...more prone to flippin paying attention! When I next saw the weekly lower BB hooking (en route to 705), I put on my first hedges. Sooo... now we have the whole opposite scenario here. We're in a downtrend, and the weekly upper BB's hooking + lower BB wide open. Whatcha think? It's a hypothesis...let's see it get tested.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2013 19:24:29 GMT -8
Well, volatility _does_ need to settle down at some point. So you're saying the upper BB hook might be OK in the context of the lower BB seemingly pointing towards zero? I know, sounds like I just rephrased what you said, but I want to be sure I understand.
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