This is a great article, required reading. Says exactly what I have been saying about Google (hey, maybe that's why it's so brilliant!). It shows what complete dunderheads the tech media are. If the WSJ had any brains, they'd hire Dilger.
I stand by my belief that, someday, GOOG will be the Short of the Century.
I think you're one of the 3 smartest people on this forum but give GOOG a break. Start shorting the stock and let me know how that works out. Eventually you'll be right(just not sure what decade). :-)
“The poor man is not he who is without a cent, but he who is without a dream." Harry Kemp
If you read the WSJ piece, Einhorn made it clear he was talking about high fliers with huge P/E's, not AAPL. The exact thing a lot of us on AFB are always belly-aching about.
But it is an argument for AAPL to GTF out of the NASDAQ before reckoning day.
He described the current bubble as “an echo of the previous tech bubble, but with fewer large capitalization stocks and much less public enthusiasm.”
There are three reasons he cited in an investor letter that back his thesis: the rejection of “conventional valuation methods,” short sellers being forced to cover positions and big first-day pops for newly minted public companies that “have done little more than use the right buzzwords and attract the right venture capital.”
He didn’t specify which companies he felt met that criteria.
...
Without disclosing specific names, Mr. Einhorn said he has shorted a basket of so-called momentum stocks. He highlighted the risk of such a move: “We have repeatedly noted that it is dangerous to short stocks that have disconnected from traditional valuation methods,” Mr. Einhorn said. “After all, twice a silly price is not twice as silly; it’s still just silly.”
But now that there is “a clear consensus” that tech stocks are in a bubble, he said he is more comfortable shorting a basket of these high-flying stocks.
“A basket approach makes sense because it allows each position to be very small, thereby reducing the risk of any particular high-flier becoming too costly…When the prices reconnect to traditional valuation methods, the de-rating can be substantial,” he said. “There is a huge gap between the bubble price and the point where disciplined growth investors (let alone value investors) become interest buyers.”
And guess who is now the king of the high margin smartphone:
Post by yellowhandman on Apr 27, 2014 2:33:05 GMT -8
I don't think I've seen anyone else highlight this - the split is for shareholders on record as of 2 June, which is the same day that WWDC starts. More importantly, the actual split takes effect on 9 June, the first trading day after WWDC ends on 6 June. I'm pretty sure this isn't just a coincidence - WWDC is going to be the start of Apple's unveiling of its stream of new products...
I don't think I've seen anyone else highlight this - the split is for shareholders on record as of 2 June, which is the same day that WWDC starts. More importantly, the actual split takes effect on 9 June, the first trading day after WWDC ends on 6 June. I'm pretty sure this isn't just a coincidence - WWDC is going to be the start of Apple's unveiling of its stream of new products...
Terrific insight....and the "coincidence" insures plenty of buzz around Apple and AAPL that week.
The conspirator in me sees relevance to the number "7". It's too bad iOS 7 is already taken...and we aren't ready for iPhone 7.
Post by ericinaustin on Apr 27, 2014 6:57:29 GMT -8
I stand by my belief that, someday, GOOG will be the Short of the Century. [/quote]I think you're one of the 3 smartest people on this forum but give GOOG a break. Start shorting the stock and let me know how that works out. Eventually you'll be right(just not sure what decade). :-) [/quote]
Goog is a click ad company flailing desperately to find anything else that can make money before stockholders figure out two major truths .
1. Ads on line don't work very well and the price they get for those ads is heading south fast ( esp. Mobile ads) and, 2. A lot of very capable companies are pushing into their source of revenue and will carve off a big chunk soon. And one of those companies ( apple) has a hell of a grudge against their CEO. And apple is highly motivated .
I don't think I've seen anyone else highlight this - the split is for shareholders on record as of 2 June, which is the same day that WWDC starts. More importantly, the actual split takes effect on 9 June, the first trading day after WWDC ends on 6 June. I'm pretty sure this isn't just a coincidence - WWDC is going to be the start of Apple's unveiling of its stream of new products...
Terrific insight....and the "coincidence" insures plenty of buzz around Apple and AAPL that week.
The conspirator in me sees relevance to the number "7". It's too bad iOS 7 is already taken...and we aren't ready for iPhone 7.
Hmmmmm. Got to work on this.....
Maybe they chose '7' because it was SJs favorite/lucky number?
This is a great article, required reading. Says exactly what I have been saying about Google (hey, maybe that's why it's so brilliant!). It shows what complete dunderheads the tech media are. If the WSJ had any brains, they'd hire Dilger.
I stand by my belief that, someday, GOOG will be the Short of the Century.
I think you're one of the 3 smartest people on this forum but give GOOG a break. Start shorting the stock and let me know how that works out. Eventually you'll be right(just not sure what decade).
Is that like, "you don't sweat much for a fat chick," or, "you're the coolest guard at Auschwitz," or, "hottest chick at MIT," or, "least racist NBA owner in LA?"
Anyway, that's why I said, "someday." As we know all to well, fundamentals take a while to kick in to the share price. But there is an amazing correlation of TA when they do, at least to read the TA proponents this weekend.
I don't think I've seen anyone else highlight this - the split is for shareholders on record as of 2 June, which is the same day that WWDC starts. More importantly, the actual split takes effect on 9 June, the first trading day after WWDC ends on 6 June. I'm pretty sure this isn't just a coincidence - WWDC is going to be the start of Apple's unveiling of its stream of new products...
Not sure the last time Apple revealed a product at WWDC. We could get some big iBeacon/PoS reveals though, since you'd need developers to code for that in advance for it to have any wow upon actual launch.
*** I gotta say, PED highlighting that troll Colin Gillis' duncery twice in one week makes me a lot less likely to visit his column.
Last Edit: Apr 27, 2014 11:53:13 GMT -8 by JDSoCal
"Our favorite holding period is forever." - Warren Buffett
Ya don't have Touch ID, iBeacons or mobile payment revolutions without accompanying software. Looking forward to WWDC, maybe even a redesigned Mac(Book Air) or Apple TV (as in redesign of current form factor).
Thanks, Steve. The AAPL Tree is now on Apple News (iOS + web-readable and SOON on macOS) at apple.news/TuY-CX_-jRziryK895rDu6g - for a jumble of AAPL fundamentals, tech comment and a bit of AAPL chart nonsense | the ol' blog's at aapltree.wordpress.com | archived blog's on Medium @aapltree | Twitter @aapltree
This is a great article, required reading. Says exactly what I have been saying about Google (hey, maybe that's why it's so brilliant!). It shows what complete dunderheads the tech media are. If the WSJ had any brains, they'd hire Dilger.
I stand by my belief that, someday, GOOG will be the Short of the Century.
Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 27, 2014 14:43:40 GMT -8
Because I have no life, I've spent part of my Sunday comparing the "tone" of analyst and ( mainly) pundit statements in the week after January earnings and in the past five days.
In both post-earnings windows Apple was coming off huge earnings announcements. One was considered by many pundits to be a disappointment although the numbers were in-line and one a pleasant surprise. Both involved billions of dollars of earnings, buyback news and generally positive outlooks for future products..
But the difference in TONE in even the most neutral, general statement of numerical facts.....astounding. If I quoted some of these the words would not look much different, but the subtle messaging within is night and day. This "sentiment" thing can really turn on a dime.....we all feel it too.
Because I have no life, I've spent part of my Sunday comparing the "tone" of analyst and ( mainly) pundit statements in the week after January earnings and in the past five days.
In both post-earnings windows Apple was coming off huge earnings announcements. One was considered by many pundits to be a disappointment although the numbers were in-line and one a pleasant surprise. Both involved billions of dollars of earnings, buyback news and generally positive outlooks for future products..
But the difference in TONE in even the most neutral, general statement of numerical facts.....astounding. If I quoted some of these the words would not look much different, but the subtle messaging within is night and day. This "sentiment" thing can really turn on a dime.....we all feel it too.
All it took to change the tone was a big slap upside the analyst's heads in the call. I think the response to last quarter's call really did 'surprise' TC. Not this time. His confidence is palpable.
Maybe, just maybe, this is the setup for the second-half AAPL story we've all been waiting for. With $30B in extra buyback power (for now - I bet Tim and the Board would raise it before this time next year if they felt it necessary)? And that Google-thumping 7-for-1 share split on the way? AND all those other helium stocks deflating? The Lucy and the football scenario is the slightest bit less likely. Maybe.
Thanks, Steve. The AAPL Tree is now on Apple News (iOS + web-readable and SOON on macOS) at apple.news/TuY-CX_-jRziryK895rDu6g - for a jumble of AAPL fundamentals, tech comment and a bit of AAPL chart nonsense | the ol' blog's at aapltree.wordpress.com | archived blog's on Medium @aapltree | Twitter @aapltree
Maybe, just maybe, this is the setup for the second-half AAPL story we've all been waiting for. With $30B in extra buyback power (for now - I bet Tim and the Board would raise it before this time next year if they felt it necessary)? And that Google-thumping 7-for-1 share split on the way? AND all those other helium stocks deflating? The Lucy and the football scenario is the slightest bit less likely. Maybe.
Couldn't agree more, the pendulum appears to be swinging back into AAPL's favour - There is an undeniable air of optimism pervading all things Apple/AAPL. The 7 for 1 split has me intrigued... why 7? I do wonder whether Google's 2 for 1 split was an attempt to psychologically align with AAPL's share price. So Apple's response perhaps is to kibosh that by splitting it's share price into something that doesn't resemble anyone else's share price. Perhaps a naive idea...
I think there was a little AAPL 700 in the back of their minds. And that note about lots of 100 shares getting better order protection is a keen observation, if true. Eff those HFTs that take advantage of current rules.
Thanks, Steve. The AAPL Tree is now on Apple News (iOS + web-readable and SOON on macOS) at apple.news/TuY-CX_-jRziryK895rDu6g - for a jumble of AAPL fundamentals, tech comment and a bit of AAPL chart nonsense | the ol' blog's at aapltree.wordpress.com | archived blog's on Medium @aapltree | Twitter @aapltree
Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 27, 2014 19:16:03 GMT -8
Here's a factor that may increase stock demand that I haven't seen discussed anywhere else, and it has to do with remainders.
If I have $10,000 to invest, I could buy 17 shares of AAPL at $571 and I'd still have $293 left over. I don't know of a way for retail investors to buy fractional shares (except for dividend reinvestment). So that's $293 that just goes into my brokerage account's cash reserves and not into AAPL.
But with the split price of 81.57 per share, I'd be able to buy 122 shares of New AAPL and I'd only have $49 and change shuttle into my cash reserves.
In this example, $244 additional dollars, or about 2.5% more would get invested into AAPL post-split than pre-split. Someone more intelligent than me could probably take Apple's daily trading volume and come up with a formula to estimate overall number of extra dollars that might go into AAPL post-split because of utilizing more of the fractional share remainders. It's a mathematical certainty that more money would be invested in AAPL, even without psychological factors, because of these remainders.
The cameras are failing on Samsung's new SG5 flagship. Another "feel-good" story in a week full of them. On a WSJ blog, I laughed at the response of a Samsung customer:
"it’s a mechanical thing i guess. i owned a galaxy S3, whenever the back cover is not well in place, the issue of “camera failed’ pops up. sometimes. i have to press a thumb on the camera itself, and then, it’s ok."
Samsung’s flagship Galaxy S5 is having some serious camera problems. After about two weeks on the market, an undisclosed number of Galaxy S5 smartphones are experiencing camera glitches that render the smartphone’s shooter useless.
“We have learned that a limited number of Galaxy S5 devices may have an issue that causes ‘Camera Failure’ pop-up error message,” a Samsung spokeswoman told the Journal in an email. “We ask that customers affected call 1-888-987-4357 or visit their carrier for service under Samsung’s standard limited warranty.”
For affected phones, which have been spread across multiple carriers in the U.S., the problem starts with an alert that pops up on S5 displays reading “Warning: Camera Failed.” From there, there is no way (as of yet) to fix the problem. Restarting the phone and going back to factory resets don’t help.
Mark Elliot, a Sprint spokesman, told the Journal that “anytime a customer experiences an issue with their Sprint phone, we recommend they visit the nearest Sprint location or contact customer care.” The Sprint customer care number is 1-888-4727. However, Elliot added that “none of our customers have reported this issue.” In a tweet on Friday, Verizon said: “Galaxy S5 customers who see ‘Warning: Camera Failed’ please contact @vzwsupport & we’ll work to resolve it, including replacing the device.”
Other carriers that sell the S5, including AT&T, T-Mobile, and U.S. Cellular, haven’t tweeted about the issue. None of these carriers have responded for request for comment.
It’s unclear whether this is a software or hardware problem.
Just saw the Apple TV ad "Powerful", in which they sing the lyrics Gigantic, and am very intrigued by what appears to be updates to the maps app and what appears to be location finding/enhancement by taking a photo of your location. And, by the athlete in training taking his heart rate reading using either the camera lens or the camera flash. Other updates also appear to be revealed in the advertisement......the plot thickens.
Maybe, just maybe, this is the setup for the second-half AAPL story we've all been waiting for. With $30B in extra buyback power (for now - I bet Tim and the Board would raise it before this time next year if they felt it necessary)? And that Google-thumping 7-for-1 share split on the way? AND all those other helium stocks deflating? The Lucy and the football scenario is the slightest bit less likely. Maybe.
Just thought I'd point out that, at least until Wednesday's earnings, AAPL actually went down since the initial news of stock buybacks. I remain unconvinced that they are anything other than an EPS band-aid, until proven otherwise.
***
In other news, I actually tried buying my first iPad today, and it was quite frustrating. I wanted to take advantage of T-Mobile's $130-off the LTE's deal, but I couldn't find the model I wanted in store (32GB Air in Space Gray), and I couldn't get a straight answer from T-Mobile corporate sales via phone if I can just buy one straight up without a plan for the $130 off. The idiots transferred me, disconnected me, confused me, and generally sucked.
T-Mobile's Website only lets you signup with a data plan. But you can cancel the friggin' plan at any time and pay the full amount, so why can't I just buy it without a plan?
Disturbingly, I also called Apple 3 times, and not one of their data center monkeys (why can't you call individual stores directly?) could simply tell me if I could get the T-Mobile iPad price in an Apple store (without actually driving to one to find out), as they are supposedly T-Mobile authorized resellers (BTW, answering me here in this forum makes this no less disturbing from a stockholder POV - these dumb bunnies answering the phone at Apple should know). And why can't a person just walk into an Apple store and get the T-mobile price? Or rather, why would anyone do so if they cannot, for $130 more? Seems like you can get this T-Mobile deal at Fry's, BTW.
Anyway, this was such a hassle today, I lost my interest in buying an iPad for now. An eager, ready-to-buy, first-time iPad buyer, right after a quarter when iPad sales were down significantly.
"Our favorite holding period is forever." - Warren Buffett
They wouldn't know, JD. They only know "their own" pricing and subsidized/early upgrade prices (usually). Which isn't to say they AND T-Mo would see no benefit from this arrangement. And the other carriers would follow, all consumers win, etc.
Not even the Samsung store would know, I'm guessing. Wait if you can. Touch ID is on the way to iPad Air in November or so.
As for the buybacks, I agree they're not ideal to MOVE the stock but I am 1000% fine with their ability to protect valuation. Fun fact: Apple HAS grown net income YOY so far this fiscal year and there's a good chance via guidance that they'll do so again in Q3.
Thanks, Steve. The AAPL Tree is now on Apple News (iOS + web-readable and SOON on macOS) at apple.news/TuY-CX_-jRziryK895rDu6g - for a jumble of AAPL fundamentals, tech comment and a bit of AAPL chart nonsense | the ol' blog's at aapltree.wordpress.com | archived blog's on Medium @aapltree | Twitter @aapltree
SomeJuan: M1X... 16 cores of CPU, 16 cores of GPU, 4nm TSM fab, katy bar the door...
Jan 16, 2021 6:45:11 GMT -8
mercel: It's been a long strange trip - good to see you're still around (and in AAPL -my assumption).
May 10, 2019 9:48:32 GMT -8
Zeke: Long time no see. Nice to see familiar names still here.
Mar 25, 2019 11:42:52 GMT -8
sponge: Regarding the future of VR, I think it will be huge. I was a gamer when I was in college. But as an adult I lost interest. Last fall I flew up to visit my son at college and check out his new Vive set up. After playing with it for the weekend, I was
Apr 29, 2018 12:25:17 GMT -8
galleybob: thanks for your answer. I will copy and send to her
Nov 7, 2017 12:32:18 GMT -8
rickag: So since Jan 28th 2015 AAPL is up from 117.27 to 157.21
Aug 21, 2017 17:09:43 GMT -8
*
artman1033: VXAPL = 29.21 AAPL = $117.27 AFTER EARNINGS
Jan 28, 2015 11:54:46 GMT -8
artman1033: VXAPL = 44.94 AAPL = $110.39 BEFORE EARNINGS
Jan 27, 2015 8:12:53 GMT -8