Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 7, 2012 13:06:51 GMT -8
Speaking of teaching dummies new tricks - iPad, did you know that I rolled down the short call on one of my BCSes to raise cash this week? And that I actually knew what I was doing?!
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Post by roni on Oct 7, 2012 13:07:42 GMT -8
I think we are just frustrated over the insanity of the price and of the fluctuations...and the feelings of weekly (if not daily) manipulations. It gets disheartening at times and I have ALWAYS - EVERY SINGLE TIME - made my worst decisions when it gets like this. So I am trying to stay as positive as I can and trying to talk myself into being a contrarian. Apple's current TTM P/E is 15.3. Q3's high TTM P.E was 15.1. We could go lower. I am hoping for a bounce as I bought a bunch of Aprils on Friday I would like to make some money on, but will dump them if we go the other way. Nick Nansen: AAPL historic P/E's by quarter
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 7, 2012 13:24:34 GMT -8
Help me out on that one, iPad. Is this the same as that EW/Gilburt deal? Also, to play the bear for a minute, what makes an SMA-100 retest necessarily better than an SMA-50 retest? SMA-50 held, bounced, and now a fall-through may happen because of that trader's rule of thumb about the second retest in a short period of time or something. Playing for the bounce off the SMA-100 might be a 60/40, 70/30 trade. But what about the "what happens after that"? Isn't it not a good sign if AAPL loses momentum again and heads for a second SMA-100 retest in a short period of time? Yes, same vein as Avi conversation. RE: SMA-100...much, much stronger support there. That sucker's held strong on three of the last four tests...and if we call the three days after JUL'12 earnings "overthrow," that's like a rounding error. IMHO, unless iPads are proven to cause cancer, or the market's crashing, SMA-100 should bounce HARD.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 7, 2012 13:43:20 GMT -8
Follow-up, iPad: "But what about the 'what happens after that'? Isn't it not a good sign if AAPL loses momentum again and heads for a second SMA-100 retest in a short period of time?"
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 7, 2012 14:04:39 GMT -8
Follow-up, iPad: "But what about the 'what happens after that'? Isn't it not a good sign if AAPL loses momentum again and heads for a second SMA-100 retest in a short period of time?" Correct. That's where I hock my jewelry to buy everything in sight...and Mark mortgages his dog.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 7, 2012 14:06:38 GMT -8
Why hock 'n mortgage if the AAPL floor keeps collapsing though? I can see scaling in for a capitulation bottom scenario, but I can just as easily see major panic selling if SMA-100 is perceived to have "failed" (meaning going all-in might not be the best move unless you're giving yourself plenty of time and have a backup salvage plan).
And no, before anyone asks I don't see SMA-100 failing. It's HELD historically, very well (though you know what they say about the stock market and history). I'm just looking at what-ifs.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 7, 2012 14:07:39 GMT -8
Roni, you could very well get that bounce. We "should" have an oversold bounce (at the very least) any time now... As I know everyone knows, "should" doesn't mean "will." Mav, absolutely. I ALWAYS try to buy time with longer-term expirations until a bottom is confirmed. Plus, scale in...rubies get hocked first, then the emeralds, next the sapphires... P.S. way to go re: rolling down the short leg, Mav!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 7, 2012 14:11:54 GMT -8
In stages, eh? OK, there's the nuance I was looking for. And lucky for MB, he has more than one dog! ;D
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Post by roni on Oct 7, 2012 14:21:01 GMT -8
Roni, you could very well get that bounce. We "should" have an oversold bounce (at the very least) any time now... That was the plan on Friday afternoon , after a week like last week, it often works - except when it doesn't - hence the April expiration date though I also added to a Jan 2015 position on Friday.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 7, 2012 15:01:02 GMT -8
aapl is getting hammered here because the market has been weak and the aapl "longs" are sitting on their hands. Holding near term OTM options right now is insane. JMO JohnG This is just the kind of statement that will push my boundaries. Lovey I apologize if this escalates past this, but BS like this I can't let pass freely. During the past week the S&P 500 and NAS gained 20 points, and would have been up 30 if not for the reversal on Friday. AAPL on the other hand lost 17 points this past week. It does not take Albert Freakin Einstein to see the above statement (JohnG's) is just usual shoot off at the mouth. Apple has been hammered by the press/media/blogs the last two weeks (FACT). This is just cover for the EO's to manipulate the stock. (JMO, but most likely a fact also ) Been an awful 2 weeks, we need to keep the BS in its proper place which is not here. OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!! OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!! OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!! OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!! OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!! OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!! OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!! OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!! OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!! OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!!
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Post by stkstalker on Oct 7, 2012 15:04:02 GMT -8
This is just the kind of statement that will push my boundaries. Lovey I apologize if this escalates past this, but BS like this I can't let pass freely. During the past week the S&P 500 and NAS gained 20 points, and would have been up 30 if not for the reversal on Friday. AAPL on the other hand lost 17 points this past week. It does not take Albert Freakin Einstein to see the above statement (JohnG's) is just usual shoot off at the mouth. Apple has been hammered by the press/media/blogs the last two weeks (FACT). This is just cover for the EO's to manipulate the stock. (JMO, but most likely a fact also ) Been an awful 2 weeks, we need to keep the BS in its proper place which is not here. OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!! OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!! OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!! OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!! OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!! OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!! OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!! OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!! OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!! OMG AAPL BEARISH!!! WATCH OUT AAPL FUD!!! Thank you for this insightful comment, JD!
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Post by Lstream on Oct 7, 2012 15:13:05 GMT -8
Speaking of FUD, I use Zite to remain up-to-date on various topics. I just found out that I can block all stories from a particular source. BI just hit my black list. Have I ever mentioned how much I despise Henry Blodgett? My day is now made.
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Post by chasmac on Oct 7, 2012 15:25:16 GMT -8
Did this action Friday have enough volume to feel like capitulation to anyone, or is that just wishful thinking on my part? Not close to capitulation yet. If there is a capitulation "event" it will be down at the 100 day SMA level or lower. aapl is getting hammered here because the market has been weak and the aapl "longs" are sitting on their hands. Holding near term OTM options right now is insane. JMO JohnG I don't see how this is anymore FUD than someone else saying we're going to XXX.xx by Jan. or that "the charts" show that blah blah blah. John has been pretty accurate in the past. Take a look at the daily AVSPY chart. AAPL has not moved with the market but in the past has done well after bottoming on the RSI IMO. Looks close to me.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 7, 2012 16:26:41 GMT -8
Chas, he makes the comment that AAPL is weak because of the overall market. This is just not correct in any measure. At one point Friday the S&P was 2 points away from a 5 year high and AAPL was continuing its slide. The S&P closed down .47 Friday, AAPL $14.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 7, 2012 16:29:06 GMT -8
No question that AAPL was relative weakness in motion on Friday.
Since AAPL's touching 705, it's down about 7%. The Dow and S&P are just about even. The NASDAQ is down about 1.5% but it's not hard to see why. Maybe the market is consolidating/digesting/whatever, but AAPL is showing bearish divergence from the indices, without a doubt.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 7, 2012 16:30:08 GMT -8
In stages, eh? OK, there's the nuance I was looking for. And lucky for MB, he has more than one dog! ;D Not sure I can get much for the Shih Tzu, absolutely worthless. BTW, have you guys seen the SJ tribute? excellent. Go to Apple.com
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 7, 2012 16:30:33 GMT -8
Funny how the SJ tribute video on Apple's website didn't mention the iPad...hmmmm...
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 7, 2012 16:45:10 GMT -8
Funny how the SJ tribute video on Apple's website didn't mention the iPad... hmmmm... That's the second time you said that but I still have no clue what you are suggesting? I hate hints - just say it because now I'm curious!
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 7, 2012 16:46:04 GMT -8
I think we are just frustrated over the insanity of the price and of the fluctuations...and the feelings of weekly (if not daily) manipulations. It gets disheartening at times and I have ALWAYS - EVERY SINGLE TIME - made my worst decisions when it gets like this. So I am trying to stay as positive as I can and trying to talk myself into being a contrarian. Apple's current TTM P/E is 15.3. Q3's high TTM P.E was 15.1. We could go lower. I am hoping for a bounce as I bought a bunch of Aprils on Friday I would like to make some money on, but will dump them if we go the other way. Nick Nansen: AAPL historic P/E's by quarterAccording to the chart, in the most recent quarter (Q4), the high TTM P/E was 16.57, so there is upside compared to where we currently are.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 7, 2012 16:52:50 GMT -8
Huh? I don't remember mentioning the SJ tribute video before.
You want cryptic, Eric has that covered. This is the Coke Zero of Cryptic. No calories. I think there's a reason for the omission of iPad despite its unquestioned crazy success. The question is, when will the new member of the iPad family be announced?
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 7, 2012 17:02:34 GMT -8
Huh? I don't remember mentioning the SJ tribute video before. You want cryptic, Eric has that covered. This is the Coke Zero of Cryptic. No calories. I think there's a reason for the omission of iPad despite its unquestioned crazy success. The question is, when will the new member of the iPad family be announced? Could have sworn it was you - but I posted the link early on the day it came out and a few people watched it and someone (guess it wasn't you) made the exact same comment. Aren't we still thinking invites out on 10/10 and announcement on 10/17? Or are we thinking something different these days? Frankly, wish they would send invites tomorrow already!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 7, 2012 17:23:43 GMT -8
Oh, that was michelc. Just did a quick check.
We don't have any timeframes right now. I'm not trading like iPad mini is happening until the Street is convinced it is. And to me, it isn't.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 7, 2012 18:03:59 GMT -8
Well the price action seems to be trading on technicals and algos and EO....I hope the company has something to say this week (ie iPad mini) but none of us know for certain.
Back to watching the Yankees - hopefully put these Pigeons away.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 7, 2012 18:09:22 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 7, 2012 18:32:21 GMT -8
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Post by michelc on Oct 7, 2012 20:46:06 GMT -8
Oh, that was michelc. Just did a quick check. We don't have any timeframes right now. I'm not trading like iPad mini is happening until the Street is convinced it is. And to me, it isn't. Yep was me. Just found it strange that there was no mention of the iPad. As apple never do something without reason, I'm sure there is a reason behind the omission. Now if we can have a week without to much red ink I will be happy
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