Lessons Learned Nov 2, 2012 17:07:24 GMT -5
Post by Rupert on Nov 2, 2012 17:07:24 GMT -5
So, lessons learned anyone? Here are mine...
This is what I've told myself ever since the drop from 644: The next time we hit an ATH, and the permabulls say no way is AAPL ever seeing xxx.00 again, don't believe it! We will go up to new highs, as we always do, AND we will give *at least* 38.2% of it back, as we always do. So next time we hit ATHs, get some hedges on and watch for bearish divergence...do NOT ignore the short-term technicals no matter how rosy the fundamentals look. And never, ever ignore long-term fundamentals no matter how scary the short-term technicals look.
WHEN we see the next unfilled gap up, remember that level. No, not all gaps are filled...just most of them. So when we're sitting at the next ATH, buy some cheap way OTM bear spreads 3 mos. out with strikes around the unfilled gap area. On the next down wave, swap those bears for bulls...to stretch your dip-buying $$. Optimally, don't start swapping until we hit the lower BB on the daily -- always hard coming off an uptrend, but it's the ideal.
I sold way, WAY too early after the JUL'12 earnings miss, but I had that 585-ish unfilled gap in the back of my mind, and I was just pissed off enough (at myself) to belligerently set aside that same amount of capital to repurchase everything I sold, should we ever see 585 again. Well, I have everything back now...the equivalent positions with further expirations...and the EOs will have to pry those holdings out of my cold, dead hands before I'm shaken out prematurely again.
Great post iPad I am going to frame and put it next to my computer. Will read it every day.