Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2014 19:28:06 GMT -8
In the same report, he's slow walking the March quarter at 50M iPhones, which would match the YOY % increase between 2014 and 2013 (14%). I think he's low on the March quarter, given better availability and continuing Android schadenfreude (Samsung, Lollipoop, etc.).
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2014 19:37:05 GMT -8
What is the significance of the Dec 14 date on Bloomberg's futures screen, week after week? That's the month of the next futures contract expiry, FuEx, if you will. They are quarterly, December, then March, then June, then September, then December again, and so on. So when you see a futures quote, the futures market (not the individual stock markets) is predicting what it thinks where the indexes will be on December 19, not tomorrow. Thanks. WS loves WAGs and we love our dartboards. Dialing in a bullish 70+M iPhones will approximate a 45% YOY increase in EPS for the December quarter.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 23, 2014 19:56:31 GMT -8
I can't see 70 million iPhones. Not unless supply really picks up in the next three weeks.....and even then ...but I just looked at my spreadsheets and to get right to the top of the revenue guidance range, with a fair ASP....69 million is the number to back into it. So, Who knows....
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 23, 2014 20:03:37 GMT -8
Saw this on Twitter today, and it makes a point similar to the one I tried to make about AAPL's performance in Novembers and Decembers past, i.e., "beware of averages."
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Nov 23, 2014 20:10:13 GMT -8
In the same report, he's slow walking the March quarter at 50M iPhones, which would match the YOY % increase between 2014 and 2013 (14%). I think he's low on the March quarter, given better availability and continuing Android schadenfreude (Samsung, Lollipoop, etc.). I agree that the fall off quarter to quarter is way off. As I've said before, FQ2 is now Eastern Hemisphere bonanza land, especially now with BigPhones and CM rolling out LTE. I see the annual rotation for iPhones as Western Hemisphere rollout Eastern Hemisphere rollout Stragglers Waiting for the new iPhone Really it is quite a pace operationally to keep up year after year. Perhaps this two year hiatus in "innovation", i.e. share price, just shows how hard it is to execute to that schedule continually, even for the operations genius Tim Cook. Kuo's total may in fact not be far off, but I see things being more even, especially as supply catches up to demand.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 23, 2014 20:17:20 GMT -8
In the same report, he's slow walking the March quarter at 50M iPhones, which would match the YOY % increase between 2014 and 2013 (14%). I think he's low on the March quarter, given better availability and continuing Android schadenfreude (Samsung, Lollipoop, etc.). I agree that the fall off quarter to quarter is way off. As I've said before, FQ2 is now Eastern Hemisphere bonanza land, especially now with BigPhones and CM rolling out LTE. I see the annual rotation for iPhones as Western Hemisphere rollout Eastern Hemisphere rollout Stragglers Waiting for the new iPhone Really it is quite a pace operationally to keep up year after year. Perhaps this two year hiatus in "innovation", i.e. share price, just shows how hard it is to execute to that schedule continually, even for the operations genius Tim Cook. Kuo's total may in fact not be far off, but I see things being more even, especially as supply catches up to demand. I wonder too if the rollout of the Apple Watch in China won't also serve as a catalyst for even higher iphone 6 sales. Is the watch does turn out to be the aspirational item of 2015, the "must have", then phones push watch and watch pushes phone...
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 23, 2014 20:45:01 GMT -8
All I know about forecasts is, my weatherman is regularly wrong. And he's got radar that can see into the supply chain.
Not sure how some Wall Street ANALyst raising expectations into the stratosphere is good for us on Earnings Day.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Nov 23, 2014 21:03:27 GMT -8
Red, I really don't see WATCH having significant effect on FQ2 earnings. After that, the pressure will be on Angela Ahrendts IMHO. This is a very different sales landscape than Apple has approached before. Will Apple capture (part of) the non-geek yet high-tech/high-value watch fashionista market? I am pretty much the complete opposite in nature, so I am totally clueless.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 24, 2014 1:11:17 GMT -8
All I know about forecasts is, my weatherman is regularly wrong. And he's got radar that can see into the supply chain. Not sure how some Wall Street ANALyst raising expectations into the stratosphere is good for us on Earnings Day. Because if anything it helps BEFORE
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