Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 11:22:24 GMT -8
We were due for a bounce, but unless I see AAPL show some momentum, this isn't exactly a big move. And no obvious catalysts after spending most of the morning around 638-640 or so.
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Post by prazan on Oct 8, 2012 11:23:14 GMT -8
We're in a downtrend, so: oversold counter-trend bounce until proven otherwise. You could have let me dream a little longer. Not.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 11:25:39 GMT -8
It feels like some bulls tried to run, but didn't get all that far. About 30 mins to go...
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Post by prazan on Oct 8, 2012 11:36:29 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 8, 2012 11:43:16 GMT -8
My order for a new iPod Nano shows being processed for shipment. Bet it delivers next week When did you order it? What did it say before "processed for shipment"?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2012 11:44:37 GMT -8
Although written to describe the difficulties of HTC, it is actually a very good description of iPhone 5 sales. . I'm very confident of my 32 million number for FQ4/2012, and am modeling 53 million for FQ1/2013. Brian White (Topeka Capital) is in Hong Kong where he finds all Apple Stores out of iPhone 5s.
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Post by erictheoracle on Oct 8, 2012 11:49:18 GMT -8
When I see articles titled "Markets brace for earnings slowdown" that's when I feel safest jumping in again! Really? Managers are selling APPL, taking profits, rebalancing and upping their cash positions.
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Post by stkstalker on Oct 8, 2012 11:55:32 GMT -8
My order for a new iPod Nano shows being processed for shipment. Bet it delivers next week When did you order it? What did it say before "processed for shipment"? Don't exactly remember, but it was the same as my iPhone 5. Just prior to shipping it changed to preparing for shipment, like the iPod. Ordered 1 1/2 hours after preordering started, same time as my iPhone.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2012 11:58:01 GMT -8
I wonder if there is a way to determine average sales per carrier, then use number of carriers to project iPhone sales.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 12:00:12 GMT -8
I remain convictionless today about AAPL. Boo.
636 did hold, but there's no buyers at this price range. So I continue to wait, right or wrong.
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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 8, 2012 12:01:32 GMT -8
Doubled down on my Nov 680 calls before close @ $13.75.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 8, 2012 12:02:47 GMT -8
A little tweet from Scott Redler 4 minutes ago goes like this:
KashPaw: "no wkly call OI, put OI building...Red Dog reversal tomorrow on AAPL possible with a close here."
Scott Redler: "@kashpaw I agree".
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2012 12:05:19 GMT -8
If it's any consolation, we're topping the Buying on Weakness list. Buying on weakness and selling on strength lists are meaningless. Only thing that matters is if the stock goes up or down. I tend to agree with Adam on this. The metric used to rank firms is money flows. Sounds logical, but an equity priced like AAPL, with relatively few shares, can move a lot of money on just a few shares. I think a better metric would be percent of market cap, vs actual money flows. This would tend to equalize movement relative to the market as a whole.
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Post by Nevyn on Oct 8, 2012 12:08:34 GMT -8
I bought a couple of Jan 600 calls. I always buy a day or two too early!
I'll buy some more in the next couple of days.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 12:09:15 GMT -8
Heavy selling usually stops at some point. And AAPL volume has been quite high "despite" a federal holiday that probably did thin out the amount of market participants.
I haven't stopped watching, but nothing has my attention just yet. Maybe there's a quick upside trade or relief rally for AAPL tomorow.
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Post by terps530 on Oct 8, 2012 12:11:05 GMT -8
I wonder if there is a way to determine average sales per carrier, then use number of carriers to project iPhone sales. That would be pretty awesome, but I think it requires going through a ton of data to find sales over the last 4 quarters maybe, and then try to extrapolate out. One issue which we saw happen over the past few quarters and the couple coming up, is the vast amount of new carriers that are carrying or going to carry the iphone, and attempting to project their numbers. Or at least if we could find the %share of iphone sales per carrier, then we can just choose the major carriers per country and try that way, or some % of total population for new countries etc. I guess this is what an analyst does, and it would definitely be a fun project, but it's a lot to do while doing one's real job haha. edit: here is the full list of current carriers, per country support.apple.com/kb/HT1937
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Post by prazan on Oct 8, 2012 12:14:38 GMT -8
Margin is as good as crack! We'll see if it's just as deadly. With my bank offering me relatively free money, I dipped in and out of straight shares today. I really wanted to hold but didn't see any follow through on our mid-afternoon bounce. I'm trying to be careful with margin money, but I'm sure that's what all margin addicts say at the start. Thanks for the heads up this afternoon, Lovemyipad.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 12:15:45 GMT -8
Wait, wha?
Are you talking iPad's "all business" comment in Chart Talk here today or that Skype trading group?
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Post by prazan on Oct 8, 2012 12:27:22 GMT -8
We're in a downtrend, so: oversold counter-trend bounce until proven otherwise. This heads up specifically, reminding me to take profits and not give in to irrational exuberance.
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 8, 2012 12:39:53 GMT -8
13 trading days until earnings. I am considering walking away from apple. I will not allow all of my gains for the entire year vanish as apple continues to go down everyday for no reason.
If I leave apple now Im not going back. I am trying very hard to stay bullish but I am seeing down days ahead. At this rate of decline 500s this year.
This is absolutely sicking and I am not happy about having to make this choice but apple is in a very strong downtrend at the moment.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 12:42:27 GMT -8
We're in a downtrend, so: oversold counter-trend bounce until proven otherwise. This heads up specifically, reminding me to take profits and not give in to irrational exuberance. P: GOOD JOB!!!!!
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Post by podboy on Oct 8, 2012 12:44:40 GMT -8
Nate, maybe it is best if you do walk away. I remember you saying you got in around 550 so you made a profit. The majority of the members here, including myself, would hold in your position but you are clearly not ready to be heavily invested in the stock market.
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Post by po1nt on Oct 8, 2012 12:48:23 GMT -8
13 trading days until earnings. I am considering walking away from apple. I will not allow all of my gains for the entire year vanish as apple continues to go down everyday for no reason. If I leave apple now Im not going back. I am trying very hard to stay bullish but I am seeing down days ahead. At this rate of decline 500s this year. This is absolutely sicking and I am not happy about having to make this choice but apple is in a very strong downtrend at the moment. That sickening feeling is when you buy. not sell.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 12:53:16 GMT -8
P.S. I'm planning to get irrationally and rationally exuberant very soon...just not yet!
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 8, 2012 13:09:39 GMT -8
I don't buy straight up calls unless three conditions apply: 1. AAPL is undervalued (check), 2. AAPL has pulled back at least 10% from its ATH (getting close), and 3. AAPL IV is low (not even close). Without 3, I'll stick to bull put spreads. Sounds like put-selling time then. That iPad Mini announcement can't come soon enough.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 13:15:50 GMT -8
When it does...someone dust off that Saturn V.
Short-short-term, there might be a quick reversal but the strength of the bounce must be carefully measured. AAPL went back under the 641/644 April ATH level so if I had to guess, I'd say there's a lot of pile-on shorts waiting to...well...pile on.
But that short squeeze is on the way, IMHO. And it will be glorious.
Also may be worth noting: No run-up to earnings (yet). The price action feels a bit like the iPhone 5 presale event. No, not that one. The AAPL one.
The 620ish zone will be closely watched. And I bet it'll be bought, too.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 13:18:44 GMT -8
We're in a downtrend, so: oversold counter-trend bounce until proven otherwise. This heads up specifically, reminding me to take profits and not give in to irrational exuberance. Took some day trade profits? Nicely done! Oh wait, aren't you supposed to be changing diapers or something? Oh well, it's for the college fund right. ;D
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Post by stkstalker on Oct 8, 2012 13:20:03 GMT -8
When did you order it? What did it say before "processed for shipment"? Don't exactly remember, but it was the same as my iPhone 5. Just prior to shipping it changed to preparing for shipment, like the iPod. Ordered 1 1/2 hours after preordering started, same time as my iPhone. Artman, Here are the 5 stages of an Apple online order - 1) We’ve received your order: We’ve received your order and will begin processing it soon! You can modify your order details once the order enters the processing status. 2) Processing Items: We are processing your order now. You can modify your order details through online Order Status, or by contacting Apple Online Store Customer Service. 3) Preparing for Shipment: We're currently preparing your order and, as a result, are unable to modify it at this point. If items are being shipped directly to you, we'll send you a Shipment Notification email. If items are being shipped to an Apple Store, we'll send you a Pickup Notification email when they're ready to pick up. 4) Shipped: Your order has shipped! Your carrier tracking number will be updated in online Order Status and the carrier’s website within 24 hours. 5) Complete: We’ve billed you for Apple services only. You will not receive a physical item. Both my Nano and my Thunderbolt cable are showing as preparing for shipment.
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Post by lollo on Oct 8, 2012 13:25:11 GMT -8
Hello everyone! Long time reader (since 2010) first time poster! I'm a 25 year old guy from Italy who truly loves Apple and has been following AAPL for a couple of years... I only made a couple of medium term trades until today, managing to make a couple thousand $$$, or a couple "free iphones" as I like to think about it Recently I decided to get more serious about AAPL, and today I made my first purchase on margin... Bought and sold 100 shares twice, both on 15% margin, making a total of $840 in a couple hours... Beginners luck probably! Anyway, thank you so much to everyone for all the knowledge you guys share on here... Hopefully you guys won't hate me too much for being a "short"!
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Post by joel90069 on Oct 8, 2012 13:46:35 GMT -8
Don't exactly remember, but it was the same as my iPhone 5. Just prior to shipping it changed to preparing for shipment, like the iPod. Ordered 1 1/2 hours after preordering started, same time as my iPhone. Artman, Here are the 5 stages of an Apple online order - 1) We’ve received your order: We’ve received your order and will begin processing it soon! You can modify your order details once the order enters the processing status. 2) Processing Items: We are processing your order now. You can modify your order details through online Order Status, or by contacting Apple Online Store Customer Service. 3) Preparing for Shipment: We're currently preparing your order and, as a result, are unable to modify it at this point. If items are being shipped directly to you, we'll send you a Shipment Notification email. If items are being shipped to an Apple Store, we'll send you a Pickup Notification email when they're ready to pick up. 4) Shipped: Your order has shipped! Your carrier tracking number will be updated in online Order Status and the carrier’s website within 24 hours. 5) Complete: We’ve billed you for Apple services only. You will not receive a physical item. Both my Nano and my Thunderbolt cable are showing as preparing for shipment. Is that like the 5 stages of grief? I'm feeling them all today.
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