|
Post by artman1033 on Oct 8, 2012 13:53:44 GMT -8
Don't exactly remember, but it was the same as my iPhone 5. Just prior to shipping it changed to preparing for shipment, like the iPod. Ordered 1 1/2 hours after preordering started, same time as my iPhone. Artman, Here are the 5 stages of an Apple online order - 1) We’ve received your order: We’ve received your order and will begin processing it soon! You can modify your order details once the order enters the processing status. 2) Processing Items: We are processing your order now. You can modify your order details through online Order Status, or by contacting Apple Online Store Customer Service. 3) Preparing for Shipment: We're currently preparing your order and, as a result, are unable to modify it at this point. If items are being shipped directly to you, we'll send you a Shipment Notification email. If items are being shipped to an Apple Store, we'll send you a Pickup Notification email when they're ready to pick up. 4) Shipped: Your order has shipped! Your carrier tracking number will be updated in online Order Status and the carrier’s website within 24 hours. 5) Complete: We’ve billed you for Apple services only. You will not receive a physical item. Both my Nano and my Thunderbolt cable are showing as preparing for shipment. THANK you. Please let us know when it is shipped!
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 13:54:40 GMT -8
I hate it when they are sneaky like this. The gap is at 636.76 and they take it down to 637.55 and leave it unfilled knowing they are just reloading for the next leg.... Filled.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 13:57:18 GMT -8
And at the same time, gaps are being created during all these gap downs as possible future magnets upward.
So it works both ways. Of course, we're in search of an uptrend and it's still nowhere in sight, although a tradable bounce may be on the way tomorrow? AAPL is looking very oversold on the daily chart.
I dunno. Maybe I'll just wait for an actual move rather than a bounce given the lack of momentum.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 8, 2012 14:04:54 GMT -8
If I assume that the iPad mini is getting announced - instead of feeling elation, I am now worried that the launch doesn't somehow get screwed up in some way. I never thought I would say that but I have lost a bit of confidence in the company's execution. Let's hope they have refocused on being nothing short of spectacular because this has been a truly rough ride.
|
|
|
Post by lance on Oct 8, 2012 14:41:36 GMT -8
IMHO AAPL only dips below the bottom BB typically every couple months and never stays below for bottom bb for more than 1 trading day after the dip. I suspect tomorrow or wednesday will be the end of this selloff at least on the short term. This is just my opinion based on how aapl as trading this past year. I would consider the 100 day moving average as a likely worst case scenario. My biggest concern is the lack of strong pullback in overall market, while aapl has been tumbling
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 8, 2012 14:47:15 GMT -8
If I assume that the iPad mini is getting announced - instead of feeling elation, I am now worried that the launch doesn't somehow get screwed up in some way. I never thought I would say that but I have lost a bit of confidence in the company's execution. Let's hope they have refocused on being nothing short of spectacular because this has been a truly rough ride. All the FUD is having an effect on you, Phoebes. AAPL is still a great company, and the roll-out will be fantastic. This is not their first rodeo!!
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 8, 2012 14:48:42 GMT -8
P.S. I'm planning to get irrationally and rationally exuberant very soon...just not yet! Care to elaborate, or should I just move to the TA thread?
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2012 14:55:01 GMT -8
I've begun a regression analysis, starting October 2009 to date, on how often and how deep AAPL declines from ATHs. Specifically, I'm looking for 5%, 7%, and 9% drops, and their frequency. I'm then going to try to align drops with external events and earnings reports for possible causation, separating them from WTF sales.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 14:55:33 GMT -8
IMHO AAPL only dips below the bottom BB typically every couple months and never stays below for bottom bb for more than 1 trading day after the dip. I suspect tomorrow or wednesday will be the end of this selloff at least on the short term. This is just my opinion based on how aapl as trading this past year. I would consider the 100 day moving average as a likely worst case scenario. My biggest concern is the lack of strong pullback in overall market, while aapl has been tumbling Hi, Lance! Welcome! Mostly concur with your lower BB assessment. We "should" see an oversold bounce (at the very least) after piercing the lower BB on the daily. However, until we decisively break back above the daily SMA-50 (currently at 657.75) and STAY above that level, IMHO, it's "safer" to assume a counter-trend bounce... retrace, not reversal.
|
|
|
Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 8, 2012 14:58:16 GMT -8
Looking forward to it, Gregg.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 14:59:56 GMT -8
P.S. I'm planning to get irrationally and rationally exuberant very soon...just not yet! Care to elaborate, or should I just move to the TA thread? RG, I'll see you over there!!
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2012 15:26:23 GMT -8
Its obviously a bit late now, but what is everyones favourite method of hedging when we are at ATHs?
Do people use straight monthly OTM Puts? further out? put spreads?
I'm hoping to initiate some form of protection during the next run up.
Thanks in advance for sharing.
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 8, 2012 15:32:37 GMT -8
I'm seeing 636.10 AH, down 2.07 since the close. I guess that's the small investor getting out at the bottom.
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 8, 2012 15:35:56 GMT -8
If I assume that the iPad mini is getting announced - instead of feeling elation, I am now worried that the launch doesn't somehow get screwed up in some way. I never thought I would say that but I have lost a bit of confidence in the company's execution. Let's hope they have refocused on being nothing short of spectacular because this has been a truly rough ride. All the FUD is having an effect on you, Phoebes. AAPL is still a great company, and the roll-out will be fantastic. This is not their first rodeo!! I hear you - can't say I disagree but you have to admit that we were launching iPhone 5, the mini iPad, and heading into Christmas season....well I thought we would have been much higher given that all these events should have been positive. But life tends to bite you like that...damn.
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 8, 2012 15:40:08 GMT -8
Its obviously a bit late now, but what is everyones favourite method of hedging when we are at ATHs? Do people use straight monthly OTM Puts? further out? put spreads? I'm hoping to initiate some form of protection during the next run up. Thanks in advance for sharing. I didn't do it then, but I soon afterward sold calls against stock and long calls which I have. But I will buy a lower price call against a long call I have. For example, against an AP '13 700 long call, I will sell an AP '13 650 call. I think this is called a bear call spread. Originally, I had bull call spreads, but as the stock price came down, I thought I'd be a financial wizard and make money by buying back the short leg of the spread. I did make money, but my long calls kept going down, so I went short on the AP '13 650. It does make money on the way down, so at some point when you think we're due for a rebound, it would be prudent to buy the short leg back, and then sell it again when you think we're headed for another leg down.
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 8, 2012 15:48:37 GMT -8
All the FUD is having an effect on you, Phoebes. AAPL is still a great company, and the roll-out will be fantastic. This is not their first rodeo!! I hear you - can't say I disagree but you have to admit that we were launching iPhone 5, the mini iPad, and heading into Christmas season....well I thought we would have been much higher given that all these events should have been positive. But life tends to bite you like that...damn. We're going to be fine. Read the Nansen article, because it gives you an idea of how the hedgies play. nanseninvestments.com/My only concern is whether this is a repeat of April. [I'm hedged OK now, whereas in April I was long calls (very stupid).] I don't think it is because we have the IPad mini roll-out happening - and perhaps this latest drop (666 on Friday to 636 today) was comparable to the one we had before the IPhone 5 announcement - as well as holiday sales. I do think we are due for a relief rally in the next day or so, so when we get higher, you might want to get better hedged. These days, you can make money both ways, you just have to be nimble.
|
|
|
Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 8, 2012 15:55:27 GMT -8
I think the next four months will get us to $900+ so the movement of the last couple days doesn't really bother me. I bought April $750's on Friday and will buy more tomorrow.
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 8, 2012 15:58:09 GMT -8
I think the next four months will get us to $900+ so the movement of the last couple days doesn't really bother me. I bought April $750's on Friday and will buy more tomorrow. I like that spirit, AT.
|
|
|
Post by appledoc on Oct 8, 2012 16:23:08 GMT -8
IMHO AAPL only dips below the bottom BB typically every couple months and never stays below for bottom bb for more than 1 trading day after the dip. I suspect tomorrow or wednesday will be the end of this selloff at least on the short term. This is just my opinion based on how aapl as trading this past year. I would consider the 100 day moving average as a likely worst case scenario. My biggest concern is the lack of strong pullback in overall market, while aapl has been tumbling I wholeheartedly agree with this. I see us flat/slightly down tomorrow before coming back Wednesday. Wish I had waited just a couple more days to jump back in.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 16:29:35 GMT -8
I'm seeing 636.10 AH, down 2.07 since the close. I guess that's the small investor getting out at the bottom. If it's not +/- 0.5% AH for any extended period of time, it's within the margin of error. (/broken record opinion everyone's tired of hearing)
|
|
|
Post by ccs on Oct 8, 2012 16:48:53 GMT -8
Well, technically we are at the 38.2% Fib retrace level of the run from $530 in May to the $702 in September. (estimated closing prices of course).
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 16:49:29 GMT -8
Its obviously a bit late now, but what is everyones favourite method of hedging when we are at ATHs? Do people use straight monthly OTM Puts? further out? put spreads? I'm hoping to initiate some form of protection during the next run up. Thanks in advance for sharing. I've been in and out of 50-width (OTM and ATM) bear spreads for the past month. I'm just too squeamish with unhedged options, so when I have straight puts, I'll end up legging into spreads vs. holding unhedged overnight. Among other things, I don't have to worry about the Greeks with spreads, and the wider widths move well enough for my purposes. (Most recently: 575/625.)
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Oct 8, 2012 16:58:55 GMT -8
Among other things, I don't have to worry about the Greeks with spreads Even if they pull out of the Euro?
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 8, 2012 16:59:56 GMT -8
I know it's early, but "max pain" is looking like 655-665 so far.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 17:01:40 GMT -8
Among other things, I don't have to worry about the Greeks with spreads Even if they pull out of the Euro? Nice one.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 17:02:09 GMT -8
I know it's early, but "max pain" is looking like 655-665 so far. How? No running for the exits yet? OI data hasn't updated yet? iPad: You see a possible oversold bounce tomorrow?
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 8, 2012 17:07:26 GMT -8
I know it's early, but "max pain" is looking like 655-665 so far. How? No running for the exits yet? OI data hasn't updated yet? iPad: You see a possible oversold bounce tomorrow? Good point. Just took a look at Travis' site. I thought it had been updated already.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 17:09:54 GMT -8
Gotcha. I was just thinking the panic is still on for AAPL and my WAG was it'd be reflected in the weeklies.
|
|
|
Post by Apple II+ on Oct 8, 2012 17:16:07 GMT -8
Its obviously a bit late now, but what is everyones favourite method of hedging when we are at ATHs? Do people use straight monthly OTM Puts? further out? put spreads? I'm hoping to initiate some form of protection during the next run up. Thanks in advance for sharing. My hedging is unusual in that I like to buy AAPL stock at an ATH, using options proceeds. The hedging aspect is the reduced leverage and thus reduced losses if AAPL goes down. I also view the low valuation of AAPL by the market as a free put over the long term.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 17:18:57 GMT -8
I hedged up by reeling in my calls and/or BCSes (mostly by hedging to raise cash) when the trend went to the downside. Also tried a BPS or two. I wouldn't recommend anyone try what I try, but hey, that's what I do. I'm at over 50% cash (and growing as % of portfolio, the lower AAPL gets ), waiting for the next opportunity. I'm thinking something like LOOK TO BUY the closer to the 620s AAPL gets and TRIGGER BUY if AAPL can reclaim the SMA-50 convincingly. In either case, a scale-in strategy, rather than all-in.
|
|