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Post by ccs on Oct 8, 2012 17:38:37 GMT -8
Next big support levels are 636, 621, 616. Price action is getting to my emotions. I understand healthy retracement in the bigger bull run picture, but all of the latest FUD is pointing to a larger, broader market pullback. I'm really starting to loathe most news outlets. Even though I understand their sensational marketing strategy, I read as much as possible to be as informed as possible. Keeping an open mind to other's points of view. Factoring in an election on top of European and Asian fears is becoming overwhelming.
Bottomline - Apple will bank XX billions (debt free) in the next 6 months and I'm not so sure the stock will be rewarded accordingly - and frankly that sucks.
I need a pep talk
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 17:43:56 GMT -8
Among other things, I don't have to worry about the Greeks with spreads Even if they pull out of the Euro? THOSE Greeks = never-ending tragedy
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 17:46:37 GMT -8
(...) iPad: You see a possible oversold bounce tomorrow? Yes. But I can also see another leg down after that to the daily SMA-100. IMHO, when EOs shake out weak hands, if "most" retailers are still dip-buying with smiles on our faces instead of cold sweat down our spine, then it might not be over quite yet. Gotta sell some puts to the Last Bull Standing.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 8, 2012 17:55:23 GMT -8
Next big support levels are 636, 621, 616. Price action is getting to my emotions. I understand healthy retracement in the bigger bull run picture, but all of the latest FUD is pointing to a larger, broader market pullback. I'm really starting to loathe most news outlets. Even though I understand their sensational marketing strategy, I read as much as possible to be as informed as possible. Keeping an open mind to other's points of view. Factoring in an election on top of European and Asian fears is becoming overwhelming. Bottomline - Apple will bank XX billions (debt free) in the next 6 months and I'm not so sure the stock will be rewarded accordingly - and frankly that sucks. I need a pep talk Don't watch the news!!!!!!! We're going to 800-1000 by Spring!!!!!!!!!!
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 8, 2012 18:00:55 GMT -8
P.S. I'm planning to get irrationally and rationally exuberant very soon...just not yet!
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Post by podboy on Oct 8, 2012 18:06:37 GMT -8
We need a little positivity around here, the media isn't giving us any. Though, next summer no analyst will admit they were wrong and everyone will praise AAPL, taking bets on when it will hit 1000 pps.
The thing that gets me is that there is no rhyme or reason for this price action. I am more apprehensive placing BCS spreads because we could have a 10% tank job at a moments notice even if its ITM "safe play". The game is changing. I think it's wise to add a hedge by placing options 6-8 months out so that you see at least a couple earnings reports to take profits.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 8, 2012 18:25:50 GMT -8
Is that like the 5 stages of grief? I'm feeling them all today. 5, Joel, I could have sworn there were 20. I have been inventing new emotions for 2 weeks. This is so similar to April it is crazy.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 18:27:51 GMT -8
Short-term options anything = If someone tells you it's safe, you don't even have to point to NFLX.
Jan 13 is kind of the new sweet spot for the Casino Royale shorter-term trader types, IMHO.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 18:28:23 GMT -8
Is that like the 5 stages of grief? I'm feeling them all today. 5, Joel, I could have sworn there were 20. I have been inventing new emotions for 2 weeks. This is so similar to April it is crazy. I put a cup-and-handle theory out there in Chart Talk. And if price action DOES play out like May...that's really not a bad sign, provided option longs have given themselves enough time and guarded against IV deflation. I don't think we'll see VXAPL at 30 again for a little while after October earnings, unless any iPad mini-or-better announcements happen around then.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2012 18:29:59 GMT -8
. I see us flat/slightly down tomorrow before coming back Wednesday. Wish I had waited just a couple more days to jump back in. That's what I'm seeing, but then everything I've seen for the last 3 weeks has been a mirage.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 8, 2012 18:39:06 GMT -8
Mav, I posted about the cup and handle last week, got no takers. I see it, but it does not mean it is there. Cracked myself up with that one.
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Post by sponge on Oct 8, 2012 18:42:18 GMT -8
Next big support levels are 636, 621, 616. Price action is getting to my emotions. I understand healthy retracement in the bigger bull run picture, but all of the latest FUD is pointing to a larger, broader market pullback. I'm really starting to loathe most news outlets. Even though I understand their sensational marketing strategy, I read as much as possible to be as informed as possible. Keeping an open mind to other's points of view. Factoring in an election on top of European and Asian fears is becoming overwhelming. Bottomline - Apple will bank XX billions (debt free) in the next 6 months and I'm not so sure the stock will be rewarded accordingly - and frankly that sucks. I need a pep talk Don't watch the news!!!!!!! We're going to 800-1000 by Spring!!!!!!!!!! I agree This is just like Nov last year. We were well below the highs of July and the sky was falling as we hit 363. We all knew the 4s was kicking ass. A year later nothing has changed except Apple will surprise to the upside two quarters in a row. I am betting on 900 by April. And I still think we can recover to 700+ in the next two weeks.
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Post by podboy on Oct 8, 2012 18:49:38 GMT -8
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Post by podboy on Oct 8, 2012 18:50:06 GMT -8
Fond
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2012 18:52:06 GMT -8
Factoring in an election on top of European and Asian fears is becoming overwhelming. I no longer try. The human mind can only deal with so many variables, then you need a Cray Super Computer.
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Post by jb1 on Oct 8, 2012 19:28:19 GMT -8
Hi all,
haven't read anything new about this but maybe it's because I wasn't really paying too much attention with our stock falling like it has been. But the strike or second strike at Foxconn has to have contributed to this downturn, right? Once that gets resolved we should see a correction to add to the pre-earnings or earnings announcements.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 8, 2012 19:51:31 GMT -8
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Post by joel90069 on Oct 8, 2012 20:26:03 GMT -8
Thanks for posting. Awesome review. He articulated what I'd been feeling for the last couple of weeks... but SO much better than I could.
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 8, 2012 20:28:25 GMT -8
Its nice to see some bullish posts. Im not sure if we see 800-1000 that quickly but it is possible. Apple doubles every year or so (approximately) not sure if that is going to continue at that rate though. At some point apple is going to reach a peak, but im guessing its not going to be for a few years.
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Post by stkstalker on Oct 8, 2012 20:50:14 GMT -8
Somebody else start the Tuesday page. I wasn't very lucky.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2012 22:41:48 GMT -8
I've begun a regression analysis, starting October 2009 to date, on how often and how deep AAPL declines from ATHs. Specifically, I'm looking for 5%, 7%, and 9% drops, and their frequency. I'm then going to try to align drops with external events and earnings reports for possible causation, separating them from WTF sales. Couple of things. Artman wants to know if I'm a member of AAPL Sanity. No, I am not, but would like to be. He asks because a member on that forum just posted a chart doing what I suggest above. Second. I've completed the formulas I think necessary to complete my regression analysis, and the results appear to show something I find interesting. The problem is the scale of the chart (covers 3 years of trading). Getting it all on a single 22" screen in readable format is proving difficult. Give me a couple days and I'll share my impressions on what I see.
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