chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Nov 28, 2014 11:44:10 GMT -8
Opening a bit early to prepare for the return of Black Friday shoppers. Hope you all survived the mayhem.
Sixth green week in a row, up just over 20% in that time. Feeling a little like Christmas came early, but I am confident that AAPL will be the gift that keeps giving throughout the holiday season.
Happy Holidays! Let the winter solstice celebrations of various denominations begin.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 28, 2014 12:10:47 GMT -8
Continuing discussion from yesterday, U.S. shale oil producers are in much more trouble than Saudi is. Their break even costs are in the $70s and many of them have huge debts to pay. If they can't pay off their debts through profitable production, they are screwed. They can't wait it out long when the debt payments keep coming. Saudi has massive cash reserves that can tide them over for years.
And give me a break about alternative energy subsidies. It's probably a rounding error compared to the various tax breaks and incentives the O&G industry has been taking advantage of forever.
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Post by incorrigible on Nov 28, 2014 12:57:51 GMT -8
I read recently that with improvements in drilling efficiency, shale oil break-even is closer to $50 per barrel. Sounds like the Saudi's may be on their last leg. Good.
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Nov 29, 2014 3:35:15 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 29, 2014 11:16:08 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 29, 2014 11:47:53 GMT -8
I read recently that with improvements in drilling efficiency, shale oil break-even is closer to $50 per barrel. Sounds like the Saudi's may be on their last leg. Good. Yep, we're supposed to give Tesla 15 years and just have faith that battery size and efficiency will magically scale to a commercially practicable level, but frackers have to get their thing nailed overnight? Even if the smaller drillers go BK, their wells will then be taken over by creditors, just like Apple and GTAT. So XOM and CHX buy them at auction cheap and start pumping. Or the smaller oil producers merge or are bought out pre-BK by the supermajors, who have economies of scale on their side. Creative destruction is fun, kiddies! Seems to me anti-fossil fuel eco-religious types are the ones most panicked by the drop in oil prices. But anyone who claims to have concern for the poor and middle class Americans trying to make ends meet should be rooting for this windfall. Not to mention how cheaper petroleum helps Foxconn and retail get those Apple products under Christmas trees more cheaply. The only "benefit" to higher oil prices is more Saudi princes getting more gold-plated Gulfstream jets full of cocaine and prostitutes. So yeah, good for those industries.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Nov 29, 2014 12:58:09 GMT -8
JD, do you rev up at stop signs just to spite Mother Earth?
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 29, 2014 13:42:54 GMT -8
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Post by infohunter on Nov 29, 2014 14:16:14 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Nov 29, 2014 14:20:09 GMT -8
64 GB and 128 GB are 7-10 days hmmmm.
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Post by rickag on Nov 29, 2014 14:22:02 GMT -8
Off topic. Wind out of the south, leaves falling in next door neighbors pool, not ours, thanksgiving
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Post by rickag on Nov 29, 2014 14:24:09 GMT -8
Off topic: today was the day to put up Christmas lights - all green no red.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 29, 2014 14:59:15 GMT -8
Off topic: today was the day to put up Christmas lights - all green no red. No red!!!
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Post by rickag on Nov 29, 2014 17:22:08 GMT -8
Off topic: today was the day to put up Christmas lights - all green no red. No red!!! Maybe some one could contact the Federation and have the uniform colors changed to green.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Nov 29, 2014 18:00:15 GMT -8
I have been traveling and missed most or the discussion on oil. I think there is a possibility that this drop in prices is a politically motivated effort to put pressure on Russia to stop its adventurism in the Ukraine. Russia is heavily dependent on oil exports and would feel the effects of this much worse than most countries.
I think the tar sands and the shale production will be just fine. No one goes into a project of this size without looking at the possibility that oil prices will fluctuate
If In erased demand in China and India offset the effects of conservation in the US, the price of oil should not sink too much farther. I'm buying LINE and PAA and may increase positions in EEP
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 29, 2014 20:20:08 GMT -8
JD, do you rev up at stop signs just to spite Mother Earth? No, Mother Earth laughs at us trivial organisms. Now Priuses in the fast lane, they get a full howl of wide-open throttle after a downshift to third. Then again, I've been known to hit convertible 458's with that one.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 30, 2014 7:21:40 GMT -8
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Post by tuffett on Nov 30, 2014 8:48:41 GMT -8
Looks like only the Eagle Ford basin can survive with sub-$70 oil for prolonged periods.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 30, 2014 8:51:16 GMT -8
Oil sands and shale drilling are completely different operations. Shale is much more sensitive to oil price fluctuations because the drilling can start and stop very quickly and the projects are short lived. Oil sands are much more long term projects.
The big companies already have a lot of shale projects themselves, and I don't know if they would be too keen in adding more. Their profits are also going to be severely hampered, and it may not be a good use of capital to buy a project that could be dead for several years. They need to make sure they can cover their own debts and maintain their decades long dividend growth through a prolonged downturn. It's not as easy as scooping up a little tech company - much more complex factors at play.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 30, 2014 11:03:19 GMT -8
Looks like only the Eagle Ford basin can survive with sub-$70 oil for prolonged periods. Well, we all know that if analyst says it, it must be true. AAPL chart 9/11/2013 to present.Should be fun. I love races to the bottom, so long as Apple isn't in them.
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Post by tuffett on Nov 30, 2014 13:01:57 GMT -8
Come on. These are not opinions like in the case of AAPL. I've seen charts of break even oil costs for every drilling project and they line up. These are things that can be estimated quite accurately, unlike a 12 month stock price target.
A fact is a fact - doesn't matter where it comes from. If an analyst says AAPL sold 10+ million iPhones on launch weekend does that make it untrue?
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 30, 2014 13:13:39 GMT -8
National Retail Federation reporting total spend for Thurs-Sun was down 11.3%. So will futures be red, and a buying opportunity present itself on Monday?
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 30, 2014 18:16:34 GMT -8
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Post by zzmac on Nov 30, 2014 18:40:59 GMT -8
I have been traveling and missed most or the discussion on oil. I think there is a possibility that this drop in prices is a politically motivated effort to put pressure on Russia to stop its adventurism in the Ukraine. Russia is heavily dependent on oil exports and would feel the effects of this much worse than most countries. I think the tar sands and the shale production will be just fine. No one goes into a project of this size without looking at the possibility that oil prices will fluctuate If In erased demand in China and India offset the effects of conservation in the US, the price of oil should not sink too much farther. I'm buying LINE and PAA and may increase positions in EEP Agree 100%. They want to bring Russia to their knees. Just hope it doesn't backfire.
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coma
Member
Posts: 520
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Post by coma on Nov 30, 2014 18:53:13 GMT -8
Oh goody, a race to the bottom, what fun to watch . . . Popcorn is provided by the house !
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Post by phoebear611 on Nov 30, 2014 19:09:06 GMT -8
Confused on retail sales - I was listening to some news station who said Black Friday retail sales were down 4% but that Thanksgiving Day sales were up 24% ... WMT said they had 22 million customers on Thanksgiving Day which is more than Disney World gets in a year JD - I'm guessing you are right and everything I heard must be incredibly skewed...granted that it is sales and not just traffic but something is weird about all these crazy numbers. By the way, most of the sales were on all week long and not just on Thurs and Fri ... many got a jump on things. I don't know how they are going to massage the numbers but I'm surprised by what you are reporting.
Also - do those numbers include online?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Nov 30, 2014 20:16:09 GMT -8
Here is a very recent recap on retail activity this weekend.... www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-black-friday-results-20141201-story.htmlTraffic from Thanksgiving Day through Sunday fell 5.2.% to 133.7 million unique visitors, compared with 141.1 million last year, the National Retail Federation said. About 55% of this season's holiday shoppers browsed in stores or online during the long weekend, down from nearly 59% last year. Total spending during the big shopping weekend was forecasted to drop to $50.9 billion, down from $57.4 billion last year. The average shopper will have cut consumption over the long weekend 6.4% to $380.95. lRelated Shoppers scooping up deals on Black Friday after Thanksgiving bargain hunt BUSINESS Shoppers scooping up deals on Black Friday after Thanksgiving bargain hunt SEE ALL RELATED 8 Analysts say the drop-off in sales can be partially blamed on earlier-than-ever bargains. Many retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. were touting holiday promotions weeks before Turkey Day, much of it online.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 30, 2014 20:32:17 GMT -8
As I was stalking telling the lovely and talented Kelly Evans, I think these NRF numbers should be given the same credence we give channel checks as a metric. You think these NRF bozos can just pick up the Batphone and call Tim Cook to find out how many iOS devices Apple sold? Or Verizon? And yeah, some of the "Black Friday" deals I saw started as early as Monday the 24th.
Good to see gold dropping. I might just have to call in a limit order on some. As for oil, interesting piece from Bloomberg: Oil at $40 possible. Clearly, the Saudis aren't the only players: Cheap gas, and all the countries I hate will suffer, bonus!
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Post by BillH on Nov 30, 2014 21:57:17 GMT -8
Here is a very recent recap on retail activity this weekend.... www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-black-friday-results-20141201-story.htmlTraffic from Thanksgiving Day through Sunday fell 5.2.% to 133.7 million unique visitors, compared with 141.1 million last year, the National Retail Federation said. About 55% of this season's holiday shoppers browsed in stores or online during the long weekend, down from nearly 59% last year. Total spending during the big shopping weekend was forecasted to drop to $50.9 billion, down from $57.4 billion last year. The average shopper will have cut consumption over the long weekend 6.4% to $380.95. lRelated Shoppers scooping up deals on Black Friday after Thanksgiving bargain hunt BUSINESS Shoppers scooping up deals on Black Friday after Thanksgiving bargain hunt SEE ALL RELATED 8 Analysts say the drop-off in sales can be partially blamed on earlier-than-ever bargains. Many retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. were touting holiday promotions weeks before Turkey Day, much of it online. Agree with the analysts on this one. I've been hitting some of the sales for the past couple of weeks. You know what they used to say...,hurry in for best selection.
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Post by Lstream on Nov 30, 2014 22:18:52 GMT -8
As I was stalking telling the lovely and talented Kelly Evans, I think these NRF numbers should be given the same credence we give channel checks as a metric. You think these NRF bozos can just pick up the Batphone and call Tim Cook to find out how many iOS devices Apple sold? Or Verizon? And yeah, some of the "Black Friday" deals I saw started as early as Monday the 24th.
Good to see gold dropping. I might just have to call in a limit order on some. As for oil, interesting piece from Bloomberg: Oil at $40 possible. Clearly, the Saudis aren't the only players: Cheap gas, and all the countries I hate will suffer, bonus!
Some of those other 195 countries don't produce oil, so quite a few won't suffer at all. Sorry to bust up your cheerful mood.
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