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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 9, 2012 7:27:53 GMT -8
OK, back above 100 day MA. We may have reversal here... if, not very soon. A reversal down or up?
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Post by Rupert on Oct 9, 2012 7:28:47 GMT -8
Nick Nansen posted this late yesterday. Haven't seen it posted here, so here it is; Apple Getting Close to a Bottom Posted on October 8, 2012 Apple is close to finding a bottom on both the 60 minute and the daily charts. On the 60 minute, Apple jumped below it’s lower Bollinger band and hit 24 on the RSI; both indicative of a bottom if you look at a longer term 60 minute chart. If we gap down or sell off in the morning, both these indicators will be flashing a bottom is in. On the daily charts Apple poked through it’s lower Bollinger band and is at 37 on the RSI. If you look back this is comparable to some of the big bottoms we have had in the past. Apple has now retraced 38.20% of the big gain it has put in from 528 to 705. This important fib number corresponds to the approximate 38.2% retracement Apple put in after it’s run from 363 to 644. 38.2% is the most likely point to look for an end to any big sell off. I will look for some kind of final capitualation sell off Tuesday morning and a final bottom to be set. This is the 2nd out of 3 earnings runs where Apple has had a major correction a couple of weeks before earnings. This is unheard of in Apple’s last 3 years. Now we have had to deal with it in 2 out of the last 3 quarters. I think it is safe to say the typical run up to earnings is dead. I will no longer take this pattern for granted. Apple has become more unpredictable. What has remained the same is the price swings that range from a low PE of 12.62, 12.89. and 13.4 to a high PE that range from 18.34, 15.12, and 16.57. You can see predicting the highs is much harder than predicting the lows. From now on, profits will need to be taken whenever Apple is in the upper ranges of it’s PE range and not expect the high to occur 1-5 days before earnings. It can happen then, but it also can happen 4 weeks before earnings. I have not given up on this quarter or the positive influence of the ipad event. I fully expect Apple to bounce hard when we put in a bottom. Monday, I added to some of my spreads like the Jan 600-650 and opened a position in the Jan 2014 700-750 that offered a 213% ROI if Apple is above 750 in Jan 2014. I also have a position in the Jan 2014 750-800 which was offering a 237% ROI. Obviously the Jan 700-750 is a safer position, although I think there ia quite a bit of safety in both. I am now 85% invested in Long term spreads and leaps (3/4 spreads and 1/4 leaps), 15% cash LINK; nanseninvestments.com/
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Post by madmaxroi on Oct 9, 2012 7:31:48 GMT -8
OK, back above 100 day MA. We may have reversal here... if, not very soon. A reversal down or up? We never went below the 100 day MA. Close, but no cigar.
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Post by macwire on Oct 9, 2012 7:36:36 GMT -8
OK, back above 100 day MA. We may have reversal here... if, not very soon. What is the exact number for the 100 day MA? 619 approximately. 620 to round it off.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 9, 2012 7:38:05 GMT -8
We never went below the 100 day MA. Close, but no cigar. Did not even get that close, the 100 DMA is 619.31 and I show the LOD as 623.55. At this point I have given up, do with me as you will EO's. Just please feed me and give me cab fare home after this awful date.
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Post by stevereel on Oct 9, 2012 7:38:53 GMT -8
I had 100 day EMA at 627.56 on thinkorswim. Looking for a bullish reversal soon.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 9, 2012 7:41:46 GMT -8
Crap, I just realized there is a gap between 621 and 623. Good grief. The only positive I can see it that we have a little spike at the bottom of our candle. I would so much like to see a hammer.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 7:41:49 GMT -8
Interestingly (to me), the daily EMA-100 is 627.54. While I prefer SMA, thought I'd point that out. IMHO, if this wasn't IT -- hit and bounced off Mav's trendline precisely! -- then we're damn close. EDIT: I see Steve noted this already!!! Good job, Steve!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 7:42:56 GMT -8
Crap, I just realized there is a gap between 621 and 623. Good grief. The only positive I can see it that we have a little spike at the bottom of our candle. I would so much like to see a hammer. Hammer on 5 min...take a look... Don't know if it's good enough, but sometimes little pic ripples out to big pic...
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Post by rickag on Oct 9, 2012 7:45:08 GMT -8
My bid for Jan 13 665/680 filled at $5.01 when Apple was around $624 - $625. I meant to lower the bid to $4.96 but shut down my laptop thinking I had time to start it back up before AAPL dipped.
What a surprise when I got back into my account.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 9, 2012 7:46:40 GMT -8
Would much prefer a hammer on the daily. I know, I know, asking a lot.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 7:47:28 GMT -8
This is Mav's* awesome trendline... Next chart will show parallel channels... AAPL INTRADAY 1-HOUR CHART: *Yes, the very same Mav who was allergic to TA last year, THIS YEAR identified this trendline!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 7:50:09 GMT -8
SHOULD f-ing bounce here... Should, should, should... AAPL DAILY CHART:
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 9, 2012 7:50:11 GMT -8
It can't be a reversal in both directions.
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Oct 9, 2012 7:55:51 GMT -8
Bought in around AAPL 628. Close enough to Buy the Dip.
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Post by dreamRaj on Oct 9, 2012 7:56:08 GMT -8
Doubled down on Oct 650s at $5.05.
Waiting for a 624 retrace to add to my Nov 680, Jan 750, Feb 750, Apr 700, Jan 14 800 calls.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 9, 2012 7:59:03 GMT -8
Man this looks so similar to April/May it is scary.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 8:02:47 GMT -8
Man this looks so similar to April/May it is scary. Agree. Now, I want to see 50 points UP, just like then.
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Post by macwire on Oct 9, 2012 8:05:46 GMT -8
Although there is a lot of play up about a macro economic weakness (and i'm not saying that there may not be one) its important to keep a little perspective...$dji is still at 13500 and hasn't seen 13000 since early September. Some of this action is just range bound...media constantly making you feel like bottom is about to fall out (drinking game every time you hear fiscal cliff) we look decent on a 3month $dji chart. JMO
Also, good community here. i'm a long long long time lurker back on tmo. just starting to post here and there. Good luck peoples!
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Post by joel90069 on Oct 9, 2012 8:09:14 GMT -8
Man this looks so similar to April/May it is scary. What happened to "Never give up"?
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Post by wheeles on Oct 9, 2012 8:09:34 GMT -8
Agree. Now, I want to see 50 points UP, just like then. Only 50? How about 80-90? Screw the 100 DMA, that's just a proxy for the weekly middle Bollinger. We hit that and started to climb.
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Post by stevereel on Oct 9, 2012 8:09:41 GMT -8
Mark, day's half over and you're halfway to a hammer on the daily. We will see.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 9, 2012 8:15:45 GMT -8
I know some of you may consider it FUD but at least be aware of what these guys are saying:
Kass's comments: Doesn't think AAPL has differentiating product ~ supply side issues ~ AAPL is only trying to protect its franchise. Kass is saying the jury is out as to whether they can deliver on all the demand. He thinks there are issues with the "Apple Story." (At one point he was giggling - so unsettling.) He said AAPL is selling same products as others but for more money and that simply won't hold. He gives Samsung as an example. Doug says we have to see if old users will even be upgrading -- the cycle, he thinks, will be lengthening and that is bad.
Josh Brown: not agreeing ~ thinks it's profit taking and/or re-balancing. Is suggesting we think about AAPL as a $70 stock that has gone to $63 just to put things in perspective...thinks this is more technical...and reminds us how the stock tanked during antenna-gate and we got a gift if we bought then.
Another trader saying he is selling puts with strike of $620 and this is a buy (didn't catch the name.)
Brian White (Topeka) is in China and called in saying this pullback is a gift - there are no issues. It's selling at 10x -ex cash. Demand is overwhelming supply but it will be fixed in short order. He sees 32mln iPhones in the 4th qtr. but that subsequent qtrs will make up for it.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 9, 2012 8:22:52 GMT -8
Man this looks so similar to April/May it is scary. Agree. Now, I want to see 50 points UP, just like then. Shhhh, don't want the EO's to hear us.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 8:24:15 GMT -8
Mark: see daily candle!!!!!!!!!!! All: taking my doggie to physical therapy now...back later!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 8:25:01 GMT -8
Agree. Now, I want to see 50 points UP, just like then. Only 50? How about 80-90? Screw the 100 DMA, that's just a proxy for the weekly middle Bollinger. We hit that and started to climb. LOL! I missed you, Birdie!
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Post by wheeles on Oct 9, 2012 8:26:47 GMT -8
Kass's comments: Doesn't think AAPL has differentiating product ~ supply side issues ~ is only trying to only protect its franchise. Kass is saying the jury is out as to whether they can deliver on all the demand. He thinks there are issues with the "Apple Story." At one point he was giggling - so unsettling. He says AAPL is selling same products as others for more money and that won't hold. He gives Samsung as an example.Doug says we have to see if old users will be upgrading -- the cycle he thinks will be lengthening. All these folk talk their book. Pure and simple. Kass has been wrong so many times that for him it has become personal. The same goes for Reggie Middleton. For the time being there are still new folk coming to Apple products. There's also a lot of FUD coming out about production issues which we hear after EVERY significant release. Most of these stories are total rubbish. It's also worth remembering that even if there were supply issues, 95%+ would not switch to something else for that reason alone. They would wait. After the 4S came out, a lot of people said they would skip that one and go for the 5. I don't believe that has changed. As far as I can see, there is currently way more likelihood of a large upside move over the next couple of weeks or so than there is of a move down.
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Post by madmaxroi on Oct 9, 2012 8:31:07 GMT -8
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Post by aapl4kiki on Oct 9, 2012 8:31:49 GMT -8
Agree. Now, I want to see 50 points UP, just like then. Shhhh, don't want the EO's to hear us. Was wondering about that. Any chance they have spies here to report back what the "little guys" think? That's crazy talk right?
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Post by podboy on Oct 9, 2012 8:31:52 GMT -8
It stinks that Scottrade won't let you trade spreads. My common is through Scottrade so I have to find another site that lets me trade spreads. I hear Options Xpress is good. Any other opinions?
Thanks
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