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Post by mbeauch on Oct 9, 2012 8:35:59 GMT -8
Man this looks so similar to April/May it is scary. What happened to "Never give up"? Hi Joel, I made a buy yesterday, I have not given up. Just licking my wounds from just poor execution of not closing my naked positions on Sept 21st, which was my plan. The above reference was to how close the patterns look alike to me, scary close. Good to see you here Joel. I told Tammy you were part of the group and she says "Hi". Every time we go to Vegas we think of all of you guys. We are going in a couple of weeks. I hope to teach someone how to hit the little white ball. If not, there is always dinner and the casinos. PS, Joel should be commended for his memory of remembering my sig. I have another one in mind. Just have not updated.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 9, 2012 8:43:14 GMT -8
I am not worried in the least bit. I was worried back in April, May, June, July because of inexperience. At the end of the day, I ask myself just one thing: are the fundamentals of this company going to continue to improve? That's a yes. As someone with the bulk of my portfolio in commons and an April spread, that's all I have to think about. IMHO, you have your head -- and portfolio -- in exactly the right place!! The bulk of my stuff is always longer-term, but back in April, I had too much allocated to MAY'12 and JUL'12, most of which went belly up...but I managed to whittle cost basis (through trading), so nowhere near as bad as it could have been. Still, a test I keep flunking and having to retake: avoid front-month options. Yes, buying and dumping Nov. options for a quick 13% gain last week saved my A this week. You have drilled the "no holding front month options into my brain" (you, others here and some costly mis-purchases). Now I need to learn to be more patient for bottoms. Went all in on Feb and April calls with common in 650s, thinking bottom, though you correctly said, not so. Im Not scared here, just pissed like Adele: "I could have had it all... Rollin in the dough, oh..." But still happy not to be sweating any near term expiries as the EOs do their shakin out... This too shall pass... Seek first to understand.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 9, 2012 8:45:43 GMT -8
It stinks that Scottrade won't let you trade spreads. My common is through Scottrade so I have to find another site that lets me trade spreads. I hear Options Xpress is good. Any other opinions? Thanks I use TDAmeritrade, if you change over they have pretty generous incentives all scaled to amounts transferred. Last year I had my friend move over from Fidelity and went through my guy at TD and he set him up with cash, trades and even gave him the same trading level as I have. (He knew I would be managing the account so don't expect that part) I really like the UI. JMO of course.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 9, 2012 8:46:07 GMT -8
[/quote]All these folk talk their book. Pure and simple. Kass has been wrong so many times that for him it has become personal. The same goes for Reggie Middleton.
For the time being there are still new folk coming to Apple products. There's also a lot of FUD coming out about production issues which we hear after EVERY significant release. Most of these stories are total rubbish. It's also worth remembering that even if there were supply issues, 95%+ would not switch to something else for that reason alone. They would wait.
After the 4S came out, a lot of people said they would skip that one and go for the 5. I don't believe that has changed.
As far as I can see, there is currently way more likelihood of a large upside move over the next couple of weeks or so than there is of a move down.[/quote]
As I said - it was just to make you aware of what was being said and I had already quantified it as FUD.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 9, 2012 8:47:54 GMT -8
Shhhh, don't want the EO's to hear us. Was wondering about that. Any chance they have spies here to report back what the "little guys" think? That's crazy talk right? Well, you will fit right in here. Lovey and I are both conspiracy theory believers. LOL To make matters worse, the more someone belittles the theory, the more I believe it to be true. ;D
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Post by appledoc on Oct 9, 2012 8:59:44 GMT -8
It stinks that Scottrade won't let you trade spreads. My common is through Scottrade so I have to find another site that lets me trade spreads. I hear Options Xpress is good. Any other opinions? Thanks I use OX and they are fine. A little more expensive to trade with, but better than not being approved at all (which is what happened with every other broker I tried). Price action has been good since 11am. I am still saying slightly red to flat today.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 9, 2012 9:02:59 GMT -8
Also, I need to plan better for these big dips. Will look to unload a decent amount of my commons on the next ride up. Because it's times like this where the easy big money is made. Hit that lower daily BB and go long with calls that are at least 6 months out for a quick HR. Someone mentioned that was their strategy a few months back, and I listened, but didn't prepare enough cash to be ready. Next time!
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Post by wheeles on Oct 9, 2012 9:05:08 GMT -8
As I said - it was just to make you aware of what was being said and I had already quantified it as FUD. Don't get me wrong, I wasn't having a pop at you. Sometimes these guys are right, sometimes they're wrong. However, one thing's for sure, they will always talk up whatever position they currently have on. Personally, I trade AAPL both long and short at different times. Right now I'm long and see a lot of upside, especially with an event and earnings just around the corner, coupled with various iPhone 5 launches in various countries, and AAPL having already been whacked down over non-existent or trivial issues.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 9, 2012 9:06:00 GMT -8
I know some of you may consider it FUD but at least be aware of what these guys are saying: Phoebear, thanks for watching so we don't have to.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 9, 2012 9:08:05 GMT -8
As I said - it was just to make you aware of what was being said and I had already quantified it as FUD. Don't get me wrong, I wasn't having a pop at you. Sometimes these guys are right, sometimes they're wrong. However, one thing's for sure, they will always talk up whatever position they currently have on. Personally, I trade AAPL both long and short at different times. Right now I'm long and see a lot of upside, especially with an event and earnings just around the corner, coupled with various iPhone 5 launches in various countries, and AAPL having already been whacked down over non-existent or trivial issues. Hi, Wheeles, You don't think we'll be visiting the 100-day again, until we have a ride up first?
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 9, 2012 9:11:32 GMT -8
I cannot believe I am saying this but there is something that looks like a "cup and handle" on the chart. Does anyone see that?...or is it a mirage?
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Post by bryanyc on Oct 9, 2012 9:14:57 GMT -8
Hi All Glad to see the gang in the new clubhouse! Intraday reversal on high volume: could be the bottom. I bought yesterday, I'm always a bit too early but I sure am looking forward to next April. If anybody can deal with supply chain issues it is Cook. Kass's *ss is grass!
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 9, 2012 9:18:41 GMT -8
Hi All Glad to see the gang in the new clubhouse! Intraday reversal on high volume: could be the bottom. I bought yesterday, I'm always a bit too early but I sure am looking forward to next April. If anybody can deal with supply chain issues it is Cook. Kass's *ss is grass! Kass has been wrong multiple times since AAPL was $100. This time is no different.
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Post by aapltini on Oct 9, 2012 9:20:18 GMT -8
I'm not sure if someone posted this yet but it's certainly interesting (curry based) food for thought... www.bgr.in/news/apple-likely-to-launch-iphone-5-in-india-on-october-26/I'm not sure how much credence to give this "report", I remember Horace lamenting the difficulties in bringing iPhone to market in India, but, if TC can crack it, that could be a potentially HUGE opportunity.
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Post by Zeke on Oct 9, 2012 9:34:42 GMT -8
Event prediction: 8" iPad introduced for $299. Half of press say its good but not cheap enough to compete with cheaper androids/kindles. FUD Other half of press say the device is good but will eat into sales of larger iPad, and margins will drop. FUD 3 months later apple reports massive holiday quarter, with great margins, due to the massive popularity of the 8" iPad which outsold every competing product combined, and also reports continued strong sales of the 10" iPad. I like all those predictions. However, I'm leaning towards Apple introducing the iPad Mini at $249, not $299. Why? Because this will kneecap the competition, and it will be the 16Gb, no-frills, WiFi-only model. You want the high-end 32Gb? That'll be $350. You want it with 3G? That'll be $480 please. But wait, you say. Once you're at $480, won't people go with the full iPad instead? Well, some people actually WANT a smaller form factor. And they're willing to pay for it. Price is just a part of the equation. And, yes I agree, some people might be swayed to just go full out and get the new iPad... but then you're back to WiFi only and 16Gb... hmmm. Maybe upgrade RAM a little? And maybe add 4G? AppleCare even? And for those who still want just a basic, cheap 8" tablet? It's only $249. At a retail price of $249, assuming it costs Apple around $170 to make them, they'll still net around $80 per device. Not much compared to what they get from iPad, but that 3G (LTE?) modem and additional RAM will be the profit makers. I'm anticipating the ASP of iPad Mini will be around $350, which means that the product line, as a whole, will average $150 in profit per device. Percentage wise, that's even better than what they currently get for iPad. So, is this potentially a MORE profitable product? We might see profit margins increase! I can't wait for the January earnings announcement WiFi only at $249 would be perfect for use as a mobile cash register/menu system for stores and restaurants.
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Post by Zeke on Oct 9, 2012 9:37:39 GMT -8
I know some of you may consider it FUD but at least be aware of what these guys are saying: Kass's comments: Doesn't think AAPL has differentiating product ~ supply side issues ~ AAPL is only trying to protect its franchise. Kass is saying the jury is out as to whether they can deliver on all the demand. He thinks there are issues with the "Apple Story." (At one point he was giggling - so unsettling.) He said AAPL is selling same products as others but for more money and that simply won't hold. He gives Samsung as an example. Doug says we have to see if old users will even be upgrading -- the cycle, he thinks, will be lengthening and that is bad. Josh Brown: not agreeing ~ thinks it's profit taking and/or re-balancing. Is suggesting we think about AAPL as a $70 stock that has gone to $63 just to put things in perspective...thinks this is more technical...and reminds us how the stock tanked during antenna-gate and we got a gift if we bought then. Another trader saying he is selling puts with strike of $620 and this is a buy (didn't catch the name.) Brian White (Topeka) is in China and called in saying this pullback is a gift - there are no issues. It's selling at 10x -ex cash. Demand is overwhelming supply but it will be fixed in short order. He sees 32mln iPhones in the 4th qtr. but that subsequent qtrs will make up for it. Kass has been telling us not to buy AAPL since it was in the $30 range. Don't know how he stays in business, except that there's a sucker born every minute.
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Post by lance on Oct 9, 2012 9:37:49 GMT -8
15 dollar plus swing trading days seem a lot more common recently haha. Lets hope we close either close to green or green by the end of the day. On another note, it is pretty incredible that aapl is trading lower than April 2012 levels.
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Post by Zeke on Oct 9, 2012 9:39:33 GMT -8
Shhhh, don't want the EO's to hear us. Was wondering about that. Any chance they have spies here to report back what the "little guys" think? That's crazy talk right? Not crazy talk at all. It has here happened before.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 9, 2012 9:53:26 GMT -8
We are now green. 638.67.
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icam
Member
Posts: 447
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Post by icam on Oct 9, 2012 9:59:26 GMT -8
It stinks that Scottrade won't let you trade spreads. My common is through Scottrade so I have to find another site that lets me trade spreads. I hear Options Xpress is good. Any other opinions? Thanks I use TDAmeritrade, if you change over they have pretty generous incentives all scaled to amounts transferred. Last year I had my friend move over from Fidelity and went through my guy at TD and he set him up with cash, trades and even gave him the same trading level as I have. (He knew I would be managing the account so don't expect that part) I really like the UI. JMO of course. Which TD platform do you use? I use TD's web version and their think or swim. I like the Web for hunting for option prices and opportunities, and think or swim for monitoring, charting, entering sell orders. It's worked great, until 2 weeks ago. Now on the Web version, option pricing is sporadic if it's even available. Makes it kind of tough to make any decisions if you can't see pricing. And, searching option pricing on think or swim is not user friendly. Scanning multiple strikes/months and pricing is not a fun exercise. Just wasted the morning with their IT dept and got nowhere while I missed out on buying the possible bottom of this dip...frustrating beyond belief after I sat patiently through the 80 point drop waiting for the magical $620ish area to make some moves! Apparently they've changed their data bases over the past 2 weeks and that may be the cause of the Web version problems. Hate to say it, but after 15 yrs with TD Ameritrade and being pretty happy with them, I think I'm shopping for a new broker. Anybody have a recommendation of an online broker with exceptional option trading platform?
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Post by stkstalker on Oct 9, 2012 10:00:48 GMT -8
Kass has been telling us not to buy AAPL since it was in the $30 range. Don't know how he stays in business, except that there's a sucker born every minute. I suspect he swings both ways, just only vocal on the way down.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 9, 2012 10:01:18 GMT -8
Hi, Wheeles, You don't think we'll be visiting the 100-day again, until we have a ride up first? I can't say that we won't, but I do think we'll see 650 before a pullback, and even then a pullback may just see us come back to around this sort of level (635).
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Post by Lstream on Oct 9, 2012 10:04:58 GMT -8
Lots of these platforms let you set up play money accounts and test drive the entire platform. I chose OptionsXpress that way. Being from Canada though, I had less choices, so I may have chosen a different broker if I was in the US.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 9, 2012 10:08:01 GMT -8
Hi, Wheeles, You don't think we'll be visiting the 100-day again, until we have a ride up first? I can't say that we won't, but I do think we'll see 650 before a pullback, and even then a pullback may just see us come back to around this sort of level (635). Thanks.
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Post by bryanyc on Oct 9, 2012 10:12:39 GMT -8
GREEN!
Ladies and Gentleman, please collect your belonging, including any shares or options you may have purchased. The train is leaving the 620's station!
(fingers crossed)
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 9, 2012 10:17:27 GMT -8
That was the second try to get thru 638 which was rejected. Here comes another one.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 10:32:05 GMT -8
I'm putting hedges back on here!!!
OCT'12 610/620 bear put spreads = cheap insurance (throwaway insurance, well worth it for peace of mind!)
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Post by ccs on Oct 9, 2012 10:37:24 GMT -8
Assuming 623 is the bottom from the 702 top, the next Fib resistance is at $641ish
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Post by servo on Oct 9, 2012 10:47:08 GMT -8
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Post by rob_london on Oct 9, 2012 10:57:16 GMT -8
OK, let's see what we do in the last hour...
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