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Post by mbeauch on Oct 9, 2012 13:21:31 GMT -8
Earnings season has begun, with Alcoa & Yum brands both reporting better than expected earnings. On another note, I'm happy to see how fast the brouhaha over iOS Maps has died. I haven't seen any mention anywhere mainstream in at least a week it seems. The only thing I remember seeing was a positive story on tech sites about improvements that apple has already started making to maps and 3d imagery. That is because Google had a little snafu recently and could not continue to beat the drum while their own app was having issues. Google uses the media and the courts to assert itself. I actually like the Apple maps. It sync's via Bluetooth through my car and provides turn by turn through the cars radio. Awesome.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 13:45:26 GMT -8
Can we agree to put Obama and Romney discussions into their own thread somewhere? Yes, somewhere in The Dungeon. EDIT: YAY!!! I see others already redirected traffic -- THANK YOU!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 13:49:55 GMT -8
All: really, REALLY awesome posts today!!!
In times past, days like this inspired bickering and food fights, and I kinda dreaded what I'd find when I looked in here. Today, I saw everyone pulling together and sharing knowledge and generally HELPING each other, which was really great. THANK YOU, everyone!!!
xoxo Lovey
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 9, 2012 14:10:57 GMT -8
All: really, REALLY awesome posts today!!! In times past, days like this inspired bickering and food fights, and I kinda dreaded what I'd find when I looked in here. Today, I saw everyone pulling together and sharing knowledge and generally HELPING each other, which was really great. THANK YOU, everyone!!! xoxo Lovey You reap what YOU sow, iPad...you set the tone.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 9, 2012 14:13:19 GMT -8
Both Keith McCullough and Karen Finerman said the trade for tomorrow (they all get input as the show signs off) is buy AAPL. Take it with a grain of salt but Karen is a smart lady - and has been long AAPL for a while in her fund. When it got to $700 she overwrote with OTM calls. She gets it....and she's a successful investor....I'm just sayin'
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Post by chasmac on Oct 9, 2012 14:16:25 GMT -8
All: really, REALLY awesome posts today!!! In times past, days like this inspired bickering and food fights, and I kinda dreaded what I'd find when I looked in here. Today, I saw everyone pulling together and sharing knowledge and generally HELPING each other, which was really great. THANK YOU, everyone!!! xoxo Lovey Agreed, thanks for keeping the food fights to a minimum. I've been on my best behavior because I want a cookie :-) Added a few of your stinky Oct. bear puts spreads. Got stopped out with a small gain on some weekly calls today. Frustrating. Added Aprils too soon (of course) and left with too little cash to take advantage. Good luck all.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 9, 2012 14:18:31 GMT -8
....but it looks like you guys have done a great job of staying away from politics. Hopefully that can continue I believe politics are relegated to "The Dungeon" threads. If it hurts anyone's wittle head to hear the reality that long term cap gains rates are set to go up by almost 60% next year, well, tough. It hurts my pocketbook a lot more. If it is inappropriate to point out undisputed truths like that here, I'll stop posting here altogether and you can all sing Kumbaya in my absence. I've been wanting to start a blog anyway.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 14:40:37 GMT -8
It hurts my wittle head if you get NASTY about it...
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Oct 9, 2012 14:44:02 GMT -8
Again - you can line up Maria Bartiromo interviewing a technician who said the top for AAPL is in and the easy money is gone now. The story has come to an end. I watched the stock just rollover when they played the segment. Now they are having Keith McCullough on at 5:00 on Fast Money as Doug Kass's disciple. It is all FUD - I KNOW IT - but it affects the price. Phoebes, I worry about your blood pressure. Why not tune into a Skype trading group instead of CNBC? Prazan, I appreciate that Phoebes watches CNBC so I don't have to. I think her insights into the Street and how it thinks and works through the media are valuable. When she comes across bearish links and asks for insights from those more experienced in the Apple / technology side on how to interpret them, I think it's more than a fair trade.
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Post by jeffi on Oct 9, 2012 14:57:31 GMT -8
[ We, humans are the basis of the market and them, machines are trying to understand us. If I may restate the above: We humans ARE the market. When the "Market" (the collective we) doesn't respond to our (AFB whatever) logic we attribute it to a conspiracy, when in fact it is nothing more than the more knowledgeable making moves the less knowledgeable don't understand. Price action is not linear. Case in point: there are only a finite number of shares outstanding. When they are all sold, there is no more money to be made by the investors until someone sells. With a stock like AAPL it doesn't take much volume to make a killing, soooo, at the peak of a run, the early buyers sell a portion of their holdings, overloading the remaining buyers (causing the price to go down) until the supply of sellers wanes. At that time, the sellers that ended the bull run, starting the sell off, jump back in, picking up the shares that they had previously sold FOR LESS. Real investing is about long term appreciation, AND short term cash flow. Where we have been missing the boat is by focusing on one aspect, while ignoring the other. This is what I am seeing by studying trading action post ATHs. Completely agree! Apple is the largest market cap stock and therefore the hardest to manipulate. The use of blaming "manipulation" for getting the direction of AAPL wrong is just rationalization for being wrong. The system/ machines/ evil empire etc. are not gaming us. Many are just sheep because they do not understand how the market works. When one opens a call it places upward pressure on the stock price. If one does not take delivery of the stock at expiration (when the call is in the money) then the call holder sells (closes position) putting downward pressure on the stock. This is not rocket science. Do I need to explain the inverse with puts? Of course, there are other factors like supply and demand for the common stock. Again... Apple is the largest market cap stock and therefore the hardest to manipulate.
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Post by erictheoracle on Oct 9, 2012 15:07:33 GMT -8
Wow, a straight up answer post got moderated?
Is this forum going to be as effed-up as the last forum?
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Post by PikesPique on Oct 9, 2012 15:14:00 GMT -8
I believe politics are relegated to "The Dungeon" threads. If it hurts anyone's wittle head to hear the reality that long term cap gains rates are set to go up by almost 60% next year, well, tough. It hurts my pocketbook a lot more. If it is inappropriate to point out undisputed truths like that here, I'll stop posting here altogether and you can all sing Kumbaya in my absence. I've been wanting to start a blog anyway. JD, My "wittle head" is just fine, thank you. I wasn't commenting on any undisputed truths. Personally, I've already realized LT gains to avoid next year's increase. I simply saw the discussion might turn political, and wanted members who might not have been aware of our political thread where they could find it. Now, if that bothers you, then good luck with your blog.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 15:25:35 GMT -8
EDIT: originally thought Eric wrote the post to which I was replying (thus the "behavioral finance" reference)...but it was Jeffi... Apple is the largest market cap stock and therefore the hardest to manipulate. The use of blaming "manipulation" for getting the direction of AAPL wrong is just rationalization for being wrong. The system/ machines/ evil empire etc. are not gaming us. Many are just sheep because they do not understand how the market works. When one opens a call it places upward pressure on the stock price. If one does not take delivery of the stock at expiration (when the call is in the money) then the call holder sells (closes position) putting downward pressure on the stock. This is not rocket science. Do I need to explain the inverse with puts? Of course, there are other factors like supply and demand for the common stock. Again... Apple is the largest market cap stock and therefore the hardest to manipulate. Jeffi: Yeah, except EOs are REAL!!!!!!!!!!! ;D My personification of market forces as "Evil Overlords" is analogous to Graham's Mr. Market. And I have always maintained that EOs are equal opportunity hunters manipulating the markets up AND down.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 15:28:36 GMT -8
Wow, a straight up answer post got moderated? Is this forum going to be as effed-up as the last forum? Eric, darling, the post was eff-ing MOVED to another thread... And FYI, this forum is a benevolent dictatorship. ;D
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Post by mstefa on Oct 9, 2012 15:38:31 GMT -8
If I may restate the above: We humans ARE the market. When the "Market" (the collective we) doesn't respond to our (AFB whatever) logic we attribute it to a conspiracy, when in fact it is nothing more than the more knowledgeable making moves the less knowledgeable don't understand. Price action is not linear. Case in point: there are only a finite number of shares outstanding. When they are all sold, there is no more money to be made by the investors until someone sells. With a stock like AAPL it doesn't take much volume to make a killing, soooo, at the peak of a run, the early buyers sell a portion of their holdings, overloading the remaining buyers (causing the price to go down) until the supply of sellers wanes. At that time, the sellers that ended the bull run, starting the sell off, jump back in, picking up the shares that they had previously sold FOR LESS. Real investing is about long term appreciation, AND short term cash flow. Where we have been missing the boat is by focusing on one aspect, while ignoring the other. This is what I am seeing by studying trading action post ATHs. Completely agree! Apple is the largest market cap stock and therefore the hardest to manipulate. The use of blaming "manipulation" for getting the direction of AAPL wrong is just rationalization for being wrong. The system/ machines/ evil empire etc. are not gaming us. Many are just sheep because they do not understand how the market works. When one opens a call it places upward pressure on the stock price. If one does not take delivery of the stock at expiration (when the call is in the money) then the call holder sells (closes position) putting downward pressure on the stock. This is not rocket science. Do I need to explain the inverse with puts? Of course, there are other factors like supply and demand for the common stock. Again... Apple is the largest market cap stock and therefore the hardest to manipulate. And there's also when boys agree to all dump stock at the same time during their happy hour after work and laugh at us. At least I know it for a fact from Bay street in Toronto, where I know some restaurant owners. Then they order a $15000 bottle of wine and give 2000$ tip. Also, they all knew when dividend will be announced and stock went up and up and up for weeks before it was announced. They claim it's because Tim Cook said he's not religious about cash pile . I claim they knew ahead of time with certainty. Not to mention recent jailing of people who gave tradeable information about AAPL ( it was this summer) Now, did they conspire? Should I continue? Markets are rigged, and that's everywhere. These are not even theories, it's proven, and every now and then someone goes to jail for it. Our only advantage is that they are big and slow. We can front them and be nimble. The one thing I agree is that it's not everyone and not all the time.
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Oct 9, 2012 15:48:35 GMT -8
And FYI, this forum is a benevolent dictatorship. ;D oh god run
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 9, 2012 16:23:51 GMT -8
There is a great deal about these markets that are manipulated, rigged, etc. I have seen it from both sides. I have watched people in action. I remember strategies that were "legal" --- but circumvented rules "legally" --- and yet caused an overall effect on a stock. Some of the people were investigated, some are being investigated, some are in jail....
The market is huge and difficult to manipulate in its entirety (or perhaps not, look at Boaz Weinstein and JPM's London Whale). In most instances, one would be incredibly naive to think otherwise, especially when you are speaking about one stock specifically (in our case AAPL). And if you think market makers aren't involved in some way - well it's a living for them. Yes, there are dynamics to buying calls and/or buying puts that create a dynamic with the underlying stock - I don't deny that but what we see is something hugely exacerbated. Many, if not most, marketmakers have paid tons of fines throughout the years but the fines are small compared to the millions they make on their "weeklies." But hey....it's a living.
I spent 30 years on "the street." I was at Lehman (ahem...a mere child I might add) during their "Den of Thieves" years. That was chump change compared to some of what I see these days. Just my perspective for what it's worth and let's just all go into this with eyes wide open.
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Oct 9, 2012 16:24:16 GMT -8
actually ran a linear regression on the affect of a apple weekly trading pattern since the inception of weekly options. BIG change. Definitely a correlation. If you would like the paper email me. Does not without a doubt point towards manipulation, but IMO one of the factors.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Oct 9, 2012 16:30:24 GMT -8
[ We, humans are the basis of the market and them, machines are trying to understand us. If I may restate the above: We humans ARE the market. When the "Market" (the collective we) doesn't respond to our (AFB whatever) logic we attribute it to a conspiracy, when in fact it is nothing more than the more knowledgeable making moves the less knowledgeable don't understand. While acknowledging your far superior experience, success and understanding in the investing arena, I would add one caveat, namely capability. None of the smart people on this board, nor even the Jason Schwarzes of the world, are capable of moving markets. It would seem that the EOs are. That doesn't mean that there ARE conspiracies, but it does make it more likely that there COULD be. Just sayin'...
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Post by erictheoracle on Oct 9, 2012 16:33:03 GMT -8
Wow, a straight up answer post got moderated? Is this forum going to be as effed-up as the last forum? Eric, darling, the post was eff-ing MOVED to another thread... And FYI, this forum is a benevolent dictatorship. ;D Like the other forum then.
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Post by fas550 on Oct 9, 2012 16:37:33 GMT -8
Wow, a straight up answer post got moderated? Is this forum going to be as effed-up as the last forum? Eric, darling, the post was eff-ing MOVED to another thread... And FYI, this forum is a benevolent dictatorship. ;D When I read this I had a deja vu moment of the cat is sitting on my lap looking up at me then slowly feeling the claws come out and proceed through many derma layers to finally attach to my knees ;-).
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 9, 2012 16:39:40 GMT -8
Isn't that sentence supposed to start with "So"?
So, like the other forum then.
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Post by prazan on Oct 9, 2012 16:40:04 GMT -8
Phoebes, I worry about your blood pressure. Why not tune into a Skype trading group instead of CNBC? Prazan, I appreciate that Phoebes watches CNBC so I don't have to. I think her insights into the Street and how it thinks and works through the media are valuable. When she comes across bearish links and asks for insights from those more experienced in the Apple / technology side on how to interpret them, I think it's more than a fair trade. I also appreciate her experience and her willingness to share it. My concern was for her, and she has assured us that she's fine.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 9, 2012 16:43:26 GMT -8
Keep it simple people, if money is involved, there is manipulation.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 9, 2012 16:46:14 GMT -8
Wow, a straight up answer post got moderated? Is this forum going to be as effed-up as the last forum? Eric, darling, the post was eff-ing MOVED to another thread... And FYI, this forum is a benevolent dictatorship. ;D Lovey, do you remember the PM I sent you at the beginning of the group? This is your house, your rules.
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Post by podboy on Oct 9, 2012 16:48:31 GMT -8
I'm not impressed with the scottrade mobile app. Are there other brokerages that offer better mobile experiences? I was thinking of transferring my accounts to TD ameritrade so that I could trade BCS's. What brokerages do you guys use? I'd like to have all my common positions with my option accounts and be able to access both on my iPhone.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 9, 2012 16:50:54 GMT -8
Keep it simple people, if money is involved, there is manipulation. We have a winner!
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Post by rickag on Oct 9, 2012 17:02:06 GMT -8
I'm a newcomer to this forum and find it invaluable. The comments are focused, to the point and often very entertaining.
IMHO there is a way to broach the subject of the effect of increased capital gains tax in this thread. The question could be asked has anyone accounted for the threat of increased capital gains in their investment strategy, without mentioning candidates and/or parties. We all know the candidates and parties.
Once the candidates or parties are brought into the discussion it is possible this thread will stray from the thread title, intraday. By having another thread for political discussions it provides an area for political discussion apart from the intraday thread, no one should feel limited in their discussion, but should consider each threads priorities.
My 2 cents worth.
Me runs for cover.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 9, 2012 17:03:59 GMT -8
Am I the only one who noticed that our dictator has been playing in her sandbox again? I like the trading range for those nights I don't care to look at the charts.
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Post by fas550 on Oct 9, 2012 17:07:05 GMT -8
All: really, REALLY awesome posts today!!! In times past, days like this inspired bickering and food fights, and I kinda dreaded what I'd find when I looked in here. Today, I saw everyone pulling together and sharing knowledge and generally HELPING each other, which was really great. THANK YOU, everyone!!! xoxo Lovey +1. Roller coaster day but kept in perspective thorough the posts
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