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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 13, 2014 4:25:56 GMT -8
Wow - seriously? No one opened the bar....is it that you wanted to drink alone? Are you sitting in the dark flicking that sole hanging light bulb on and off? Hmmm....that can be dangerous to be left to your own thoughts. I will be the barrista and open the coffee bar this morning - it's too early to drink liquor - a debate I'm sure a few of you will gladly engage in!
It's a new day - a new week - so let's gather our thoughts, our articles, our charts, our fundamentals and see what we may have coming up this week - form our individual strategies. To kick it off let's have a little fun with the Stock Traders Almanac for 2015 that a few news segments have been chatting about. It's not necessarily a prediction of the future - it's merely historical fact - but it may present some positive probabilities on what may be to come even if some are a little quirky - enjoy the weekend:
1. The Dow has NOT had a loss in a presidential pre-election year since 1939. 2015 is a presidential pre-election year. 2. Historically, the worst two quarters of the 4 year presidential cycle are the 2nd and 3rd quarter of the midterm year (the ones we just finished up). 3. The fifth year of a decade is the best year of the decennial period by a wide margin. The Dow and its predecessors are up an average of 28.3% in decennial years in the past 130 years. There was only one losing year ending in “5” in 13 decades. 2015 is the fifth year of a decade.
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Post by rickag on Dec 13, 2014 5:38:07 GMT -8
Ghost town ... Boo
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Ted
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Posts: 880
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Post by Ted on Dec 13, 2014 9:37:34 GMT -8
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2014 11:11:07 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 13, 2014 13:04:46 GMT -8
Just a tax note for everyone, it's that wash sale time of year.
Note that Apple's earnings releases have varied from Jan 18 to Jan 27 the last 4 years, so plan the 31 days before those dates accordingly.
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Post by mrentropy on Dec 13, 2014 15:20:55 GMT -8
For the TA gurus out there :
I was looking back through the times AAPL has pierced the Lower Bollinger band. Historically this has resulted in a bounce within a couple of days. The big exception to this was he downtrend of 2012 . My question is if we don't see a bounce, could the combination of this and going through the 50sma telegraph a new downtrend? Conversely, are we more likely to see a bounce due to past performance (and a very oversold RSI)?
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 13, 2014 18:50:12 GMT -8
Bah humbug! I vote the bounce!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 13, 2014 18:53:10 GMT -8
For the TA gurus out there : I was looking back through the times AAPL has pierced the Lower Bollinger band. Historically this has resulted in a bounce within a couple of days. The big exception to this was he downtrend of 2012 . My question is if we don't see a bounce, could the combination of this and going through the 50sma telegraph a new downtrend? Conversely, are we more likely to see a bounce due to past performance (and a very oversold RSI)? Let me not-answer with a fundamentals argument. Apple's had the capital return program (which doubles as market cap protection program) up and running at full speed since April 2013, and it looks like it'll keep expanding the total capital return program each passing year (well, as long as the company keps growing anyway). Dividends are set to automatic annual increases. This ALONE should have significant valuation support just as long the arc of Apple's financials remains favorable. Oh sure, you could say (fiscal) 2015 feast (iPhone 6) is 2016 famine ("no one" will buy the iPhone 6S). But that's a really, really, REALLY stupid argument to make. Like China Mobile will have suddenly negative iPhone growth from 6 to 6S, just the second generation of product of bigger-screened iPhones that most of their customers really wanted, despite the ongoing 4G rollout. That weaksauce can easily be seen through by most opportunists (including patron mega-shareholders like Uncle Carl, and even Apple itself). Also Apple Watch possibilities. When was the last time a stock sold off in anticipation of a poor 2016 when management confidently breezes through 2015 and remains nothing but bullish? Not even AAPL did that, not recently anyway. When AAPL was a multiple of 10 in April 2013, it lacked sentiment tailwinds and share price defense, both of which have been addressed. I'm not about to ignore a potential retrace in the indices, but AAPL also makes a nice flight-to-safety pick.
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Post by rob_london on Dec 14, 2014 4:39:13 GMT -8
More of the all-to-familiar Apple bashing? An hour long documentary on BBC TV next Thursday:
"The iPhone is part of the uniform for hip Western liberals. So much so that it’s easy to imagine it’s made in a gleaming Californian utopia, where employees zip about on Segways and eat free avocado in the canteen. Far from it. Nagging away in every clued-up Apple fan’s mind is guilt about who really toiled for our toy. Apple consistently denies reports that its Chinese factories are hellish. Tonight, Panorama goes under cover to witness the iPhone 6’s manufacture. It also visits Indonesia, where mining tin is dangerous and often done by children. Could that tin be in your smartphone?"
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 14, 2014 6:14:13 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 14, 2014 10:02:58 GMT -8
More of the all-to-familiar Apple bashing? An hour long documentary on BBC TV next Thursday: "The iPhone is part of the uniform for hip Western liberals. So much so that it’s easy to imagine it’s made in a gleaming Californian utopia, where employees zip about on Segways and eat free avocado in the canteen. Far from it. Nagging away in every clued-up Apple fan’s mind is guilt about who really toiled for our toy. Apple consistently denies reports that its Chinese factories are hellish. Tonight, Panorama goes under cover to witness the iPhone 6’s manufacture. It also visits Indonesia, where mining tin is dangerous and often done by children. Could that tin be in your smartphone?" Typical left-wing BBC nonsense that anyone even remotely "clued up" about Apple knows is bullshit. The last 10 years China has experienced the fastest wage growth in the history of mankind. They'd be toiling behind an ox in the hot sun for 1/10 what they make now if it weren't for Foxconn. And of course every single consumer electronics company uses the same suppliers, so why is this an Apple story? Sanctimonious libs are going to cost Chinese workers a lot of jobs that will be replaced by robots. Again, some perspective from Tim Worstall:
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,544
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Post by mark on Dec 14, 2014 10:40:13 GMT -8
Sanctimonious libs are going to cost Chinese workers a lot of jobs that will be replaced by robots. They're going to start losing jobs anyway ... because they've become too expensive. Kind of ironic considering how China got all that business to begin with.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Dec 14, 2014 11:29:13 GMT -8
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 14, 2014 12:15:13 GMT -8
Have to hand it to Apple with their holiday commercial ("Our love is her to stay"). Just caught it while watching the Giants vs. Redskins game. ... and the tears just started flowing. Awesome commercial.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 14, 2014 13:30:41 GMT -8
Misunderstood-class holiday commercial? Wow, Apple's advertising isn't complete trash after all. /sarcasm
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Dec 14, 2014 13:34:18 GMT -8
Literal brick smartphone LOL And as far as labor expense...Apple's still got a good lead in manufacturing processes and fit and finish. Competitors trying to cost control just plays right into Apple's hands. Foxbots would be nice but Apple's continuing/evolving partnerships with Foxconn, Pegatron etc. are way more important. Now if only that tool-and-die manufacturing equipment/expertise could find its way back to the US. Wishful thinking yes I know.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Dec 14, 2014 13:45:24 GMT -8
Some people never know when to quit! You would think that my good fortune with the mortgage would be enough to have me just content to dive into the money room and do the backstroke, but I have another idea that I would like to throw out there for comments. Forgive me in advance for needing advice on such a simple strategy, but i really am a novice when it comes to options.
My faith in Apple is such that very little would make me ever sell the stock. I would ride it down to 50 again without even considering selling. I mention this because it is one of the key assumptions underlying what I want to do. Here is the scenario: Let's say that I have 10,000 shares and we are at 109. I want to sell 100 put contracts with a 100 strike that mature in January 16. If Apple takes off and hits 130, I will buy them back. If Apple heads south, I will sell my shares when Apple reaches the strike price of 100. Assume that Apple then drops to 80 and the buyer puts the shares to me. I take the money from the sale and buy the shares. I now own 10,000 shares at 80 each, just like I would have if I had passively held the shares. During the time that I am out of Apple, the receipt from the puts offsets the lost dividends. If Apple reaches the strike price and I sell and then Apple goes back up, I may have to buy back in slightly higher, but again the proceeds from the puts more than offset this loss.
Given the assumptions that I would be in Apple at 80 regardless, I cannot find the downside in this strategy. Someone with a clearer mind and sharper pencil, help. On the other hand, if it makes sense and works for you, Merry Christmas and you are welcome
I posted this in Fridays thread by mistake. Sorry for the duplication
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Post by Luckychoices on Dec 14, 2014 16:04:11 GMT -8
Some people never know when to quit! You would think that my good fortune with the mortgage would be enough to have me just content to dive into the money room and do the backstroke, but I have another idea that I would like to throw out there for comments. Forgive me in advance for needing advice on such a simple strategy, but i really am a novice when it comes to options. My faith in Apple is such that very little would make me ever sell the stock. I would ride it down to 50 again without even considering selling. I'm sure I know less about options than you. But I really did enjoy this part of your post!
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Post by phoebear611 on Dec 14, 2014 16:42:23 GMT -8
Twenty hostages being held in Sydney Austrailia's financial district (according to Bloomberg). A black flag with Arabic writing is being held against the window (which states that there is no God but Allah). Reports seem mixed but it sounds like it is happening in a cafe. Not clear if this is an copy-cat ISIL group or not...but it is believed to be Arabic at the very least.
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Post by firestorm on Dec 14, 2014 19:09:58 GMT -8
Have to hand it to Apple with their holiday commercial ("Our love is her to stay"). Just caught it while watching the Giants vs. Redskins game. ... and the tears just started flowing. Awesome commercial. This was a lovely commercial in the same class as last year's "Misunderstood."
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 880
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Post by Ted on Dec 14, 2014 19:22:35 GMT -8
Great opinion piece in the WSJ on the ebooks trial. Get around the wsj's paywall by Googling this:
Apple Should Win Its E-Book Appeal
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,544
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Post by mark on Dec 14, 2014 19:24:25 GMT -8
Some people never know when to quit! You would think that my good fortune with the mortgage would be enough to have me just content to dive into the money room and do the backstroke, but I have another idea that I would like to throw out there for comments. Forgive me in advance for needing advice on such a simple strategy, but i really am a novice when it comes to options. My faith in Apple is such that very little would make me ever sell the stock. I would ride it down to 50 again without even considering selling. I mention this because it is one of the key assumptions underlying what I want to do. Here is the scenario: Let's say that I have 10,000 shares and we are at 109. I want to sell 100 put contracts with a 100 strike that mature in January 16. If Apple takes off and hits 130, I will buy them back. If Apple heads south, I will sell my shares when Apple reaches the strike price of 100. Assume that Apple then drops to 80 and the buyer puts the shares to me. I take the money from the sale and buy the shares. I now own 10,000 shares at 80 each, just like I would have if I had passively held the shares. During the time that I am out of Apple, the receipt from the puts offsets the lost dividends. If Apple reaches the strike price and I sell and then Apple goes back up, I may have to buy back in slightly higher, but again the proceeds from the puts more than offset this loss. Given the assumptions that I would be in Apple at 80 regardless, I cannot find the downside in this strategy. Someone with a clearer mind and sharper pencil, help. On the other hand, if it makes sense and works for you, Merry Christmas and you are welcome I posted this in Fridays thread by mistake. Sorry for the duplication 1. How much margin is required to sell 100 Jan '16 100 strike price put options? 2. When they exercise, you have to pay 100 for each share. 3. Selling those puts would get you about 18.65 right now. At a price of 80, that puts you in the hole by 1.35 or so. 4. If you can time it so perfectly and sell it at 100, and buy it at 80, then you have a gain of 20 right there. Why bother with options? By the way, I did just this a while back. I sold some Jan '16 450 puts for about 50 bucks because I was perfectly willing at the time, or at any time, to buy the stock for an effective price of about 400. But it looks like that will probably not happen before Jan 15, 2016 and those options I sold will likely expire worthless (so I get to keep the premium, but I don't get to buy the stock at 400, pre-split).
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Post by nathanstevens on Dec 14, 2014 21:18:24 GMT -8
Some people never know when to quit! You would think that my good fortune with the mortgage would be enough to have me just content to dive into the money room and do the backstroke, but I have another idea that I would like to throw out there for comments. Forgive me in advance for needing advice on such a simple strategy, but i really am a novice when it comes to options. My faith in Apple is such that very little would make me ever sell the stock. I would ride it down to 50 again without even considering selling. I mention this because it is one of the key assumptions underlying what I want to do. Here is the scenario: Let's say that I have 10,000 shares and we are at 109. I want to sell 100 put contracts with a 100 strike that mature in January 16. If Apple takes off and hits 130, I will buy them back. If Apple heads south, I will sell my shares when Apple reaches the strike price of 100. Assume that Apple then drops to 80 and the buyer puts the shares to me. I take the money from the sale and buy the shares. I now own 10,000 shares at 80 each, just like I would have if I had passively held the shares. During the time that I am out of Apple, the receipt from the puts offsets the lost dividends. If Apple reaches the strike price and I sell and then Apple goes back up, I may have to buy back in slightly higher, but again the proceeds from the puts more than offset this loss. Given the assumptions that I would be in Apple at 80 regardless, I cannot find the downside in this strategy. Someone with a clearer mind and sharper pencil, help. On the other hand, if it makes sense and works for you, Merry Christmas and you are welcome I posted this in Fridays thread by mistake. Sorry for the duplication Hey Bud, I'm a bit confused by your scenario. You mention selling the Jan 16 100 puts (current price 9.70ish) around the current price of 109.73. So that would be $97k in your pocket. No worries if aapl runs up to 130. Buy the puts back for much less. If aapl drops down to 100 you mention selling your 10,000 shares I assume to cover being put the 10,000 shares from writing your contracts. however, if the stock dropped to 80, and was there at expiration, you would still be required to buy those shares at $100/share, not $80. Maybe I missed something in your description.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Dec 14, 2014 23:53:29 GMT -8
Some people never know when to quit! You would think that my good fortune with the mortgage would be enough to have me just content to dive into the money room and do the backstroke, but I have another idea that I would like to throw out there for comments. Forgive me in advance for needing advice on such a simple strategy, but i really am a novice when it comes to options. My faith in Apple is such that very little would make me ever sell the stock. I would ride it down to 50 again without even considering selling. I mention this because it is one of the key assumptions underlying what I want to do. Here is the scenario: Let's say that I have 10,000 shares and we are at 109. I want to sell 100 put contracts with a 100 strike that mature in January 16. If Apple takes off and hits 130, I will buy them back. If Apple heads south, I will sell my shares when Apple reaches the strike price of 100. Assume that Apple then drops to 80 and the buyer puts the shares to me. I take the money from the sale and buy the shares. I now own 10,000 shares at 80 each, just like I would have if I had passively held the shares. During the time that I am out of Apple, the receipt from the puts offsets the lost dividends. If Apple reaches the strike price and I sell and then Apple goes back up, I may have to buy back in slightly higher, but again the proceeds from the puts more than offset this loss. Given the assumptions that I would be in Apple at 80 regardless, I cannot find the downside in this strategy. Someone with a clearer mind and sharper pencil, help. On the other hand, if it makes sense and works for you, Merry Christmas and you are welcome I posted this in Fridays thread by mistake. Sorry for the duplication Hey Bud, I'm a bit confused by your scenario. You mention selling the Jan 16 100 puts (current price 9.70ish) around the current price of 109.73. So that would be $97k in your pocket. No worries if aapl runs up to 130. Buy the puts back for much less. If aapl drops down to 100 you mention selling your 10,000 shares I assume to cover being put the 10,000 shares from writing your contracts. however, if the stock dropped to 80, and was there at expiration, you would still be required to buy those shares at $100/share, not $80. Maybe I missed something in your description. No, you followed it. Since I sold at 100, the cash I received would cover $100/share cost when the puts are assigned and I would own 10,000 shares worth $80 per share. I know it is a different way to look at things, but it seems like a pretty risk free way to make $97k. I know it seems like I should be bothered because I have to buy the shares at 100 when they are selling at 80, but if I had just held them I would be sitting at 80 without the $97k.
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Post by nathanstevens on Dec 15, 2014 7:36:08 GMT -8
Hey Bud, I'm a bit confused by your scenario. You mention selling the Jan 16 100 puts (current price 9.70ish) around the current price of 109.73. So that would be $97k in your pocket. No worries if aapl runs up to 130. Buy the puts back for much less. If aapl drops down to 100 you mention selling your 10,000 shares I assume to cover being put the 10,000 shares from writing your contracts. however, if the stock dropped to 80, and was there at expiration, you would still be required to buy those shares at $100/share, not $80. Maybe I missed something in your description. No, you followed it. Since I sold at 100, the cash I received would cover $100/share cost when the puts are assigned and I would own 10,000 shares worth $80 per share. I know it is a different way to look at things, but it seems like a pretty risk free way to make $97k. I know it seems like I should be bothered because I have to buy the shares at 100 when they are selling at 80, but if I had just held them I would be sitting at 80 without the $97k. Ok. We're on the same page. $97k is 4-5x what you would get from the dividend by just holding. Bonus. If AAPL stays flat or trades up until Jan 16, you make $97k plus $18.8k for the dividend.
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