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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 9, 2015 17:27:33 GMT -8
Alright, this time its for real. We are on our way back up and the future is bright. The next three weeks will be very exciting, full of speculation, leaks, guesswork, Home-gaming (tip of the hat to Mav), the return of Mercel and more....
After the double bounce off of the 106 bottom, all good ahead. Friday was a strong day on a RED (hee hee) day for the rest of the market. So, pour yourself a cold one, pull up to the fire and tell old Red your thoughts about the week past and the week ahead....
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 9, 2015 17:54:03 GMT -8
Since this is the anniversary of the iPhone keynote, I thought it would be fun to look at an 8-year AAPL chart. Funny, Steve looked at the AAPL quote during the keynote and remarked, "Oh look, Apple's up." $87.90 is about $12.56 today with the split. I'd forgotten some things about the keynote, since I haven't watched it all the way through in years. I'd totally forgotten that rat Eric Schmidt was on stage! Or that the iPhone deal was technically worked out with Cingular, but AT&T bought them out before iPhone shipped. Or Tim Cook's joke about earnings on voicemail. Or the total disappearance of "widgets," replaced by apps. So much we take for granted today did not exist a mere 8 years ago. Amazing how much changes in our lives personally, professionally, and financially in a mere 8 years, is it not?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2015 17:56:57 GMT -8
Here's to a good week for the longs. Have a nice weekend all.
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Post by macwire on Jan 9, 2015 19:54:35 GMT -8
i blipped through that video briefly.
wont ever be another like him, will there.
RIP SJ!
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Post by geraci on Jan 9, 2015 22:38:31 GMT -8
Is Apple Pay success at risk? I tried to use Apple Pay three times today. Target: "We don't accept Apple Pay yet" Chic-fil-a: "You need to download our app and use the bar code scanner" Wendy's: "What is Apple Pay?" My fear is that if retailers don't get on board with Apple Pay, or if they go the way of CVS and remove their NFC readers, it will be an uphill battle for Apple Pay. And if users can't use Apple Pay where they shop, they will forget about it altogether. Perhaps a lawsuit that holds a major retailer liable for a credit card breach and the associated losses will scare the retailers' to action: www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/03/us-target-breach-lawsuit-idUSKCN0JH04120141203. Or maybe it will the the October 2015 required transition to chipped credit cards that gets them to update their POS systems. Hopefully something will get them moving. The success of Apple Pay hinges on getting retailers on board, and I just don't see enough incentive for them to begin accepting Apple Pay. I am afraid it is going to be a slow uphill slog for Apple Pay to gain more traction in the market. From a retailer's perspective, CurrentC or loyalty mobile applications may be preferred payment methods because the retailer can capture customer contact data that Apple Pay does not provide. As examples, Chic-fil-a, Starbucks, and Dunkin Donuts are three companies who are promoting their loyalty mobile applications and who do not accept Apple Pay. I have used Apple Pay twice successfully: once at a vending machine (Diet Coke) and once at McDonalds. It was pretty neat and I think Apple Pay is great, so I hope Apple Pay succeeds. But today, trying to use Apple Pay was an exercise in frustration. Sometimes I wonder if the credit card companies hold any leverage that they could bring to bear. In other words, could they say to the retailer, "if you want to accept our card, you also must accept Apple Pay". That would be pretty neat for us Apple shareholders. But I'm not sure the card companies are ready to force their hand on this. One can dream, though.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 9, 2015 23:48:17 GMT -8
Uhh Apple Pay is like 3 months old
And MCX is ridiculous
Give it time
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jan 10, 2015 5:17:57 GMT -8
With respect to Pay...
Standards change slowly, taking time and money to implement. Most major card issuers already require contactless scanners (Pay and others) effective October 2015. Of course, merchants are free to not to accept them -- but will pay a higher fees starting in October if they do not. This requirement and deadline were in place before Pay was announced.
There are clearly Merchants (WalMart, Target and others) dragging their feet. Their dispute is with the Credit Card issuers, not Apple. There 'solution', MCX, is proprietary and addresses their (the retailers) needs not the customers. Indeed, they require more customer data. Are you willing to provide retailers like Target with more personal identifiers (e.g. driver license) as well as direct access to your financial accounts? Didn't think so. Non-starter.
The only apparent 'weakness' in Pay is the lack of support for Retailer Loyalty programs. Personally, I'm not sure I consider that a weakness. I can still scan the FOB on my keychain if I desire to participate, exactly as I do when using a credit card. The choice of whether to give them my 'buying data' remains mine. I often choose not to based on whether or not I have sale items... Note that the people calling this a weakness are the people who want to track your personal data (the retailers) -- the very people who have proven repeatedly that they cannot secure it. [If I sound sensitive its because I've had to replace my credit cards twice because of poor retailer practices.]
Among the retailers currently accepting Pay, there are inconsistencies and poor implementations. For example at my grocery store I have to press 'Credit' after using Pay. This is a poor retail implementation rather than an inherent flaw in Pay. Specifically, the Point of Sale software needs to be changed which may or may not be a big deal. It is worth noting that until recently the same brand new store's readers frequently did not function. That appears to have changed since I asked the manager if he opens checkouts without a functioning cash drawer...
Amongst the retailers who are embracing Pay, the results are amazing. Consider Whole Foods. I guarantee you retailers who have not embraced Pay are paying very close attention. Ever wondered why so many retailers accept American Express though it has a smaller market share and costs more?
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jan 10, 2015 5:36:48 GMT -8
I'm going to make a bold Pay prediction...
Next Christmas (2015) will be the year Pay will shine.
Most retailers will be accepting Pay (October 2015 deadline). Consumers will be thrilled with it and start to use it consistently.
Business at the holdouts will be noticeably impacted. These retailers will scramble to accept it. The smart ones will have already programmed there POS terminals to accept it and will merely have to turn it on. Despite their public stance, holdouts like WalMart are likely already working on Pay acceptance.
Plastic Cards as we know them will effectively be dead within 5 years -- having been supplanted by Pay and other contactless options.
It's the security, stupid.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jan 10, 2015 5:46:41 GMT -8
Let's kick off a more generic investment discussion. A friend forwarded this video of Steve Jobs shortly after his return to Apple in 1997. Watch it. Did he accomplish what he set out to... Peter Lynch, arguably one of the best investment managers of our time (Fidelity Magellan Fund in the 80’s), suggests that people invest in companies they know; that do a great job; that they like to patronize. His book, One Up On Wall Street, is still what I recommend to people wanting to learn about the stock market. What companies do you see that do an outstanding job? That consistently satisfy their customers? That you like to do business with — and perhaps even go out of your way to patronize? How many can you name? Perhaps these are the companies we should invest in… I’d love to hear your thoughts — I’m always looking for new investment opportunities. As to Apple, my personal judgement is they’re on the threshold of the next run up. How high can they go? It’s hard to say. They’re huge already. The challenge with being big is not that there is an absolute limit to growth, but, rather, that growth becomes harder and harder to achieve. Indeed, mathematically it must be exponential. Quite a challenge for anyone. At what point does one move on? Apple is transforming into one of the bluest of the blue chips. It is reasonable to anticipate that the dividend will continue to increase. For people who have been in Apple for 10 or 20 years, the transition to an ‘income’ stock from a ‘growth’ stock may occur at an opportune time, when they would naturally shift investments to an income orientation. Others will search for the next growth opportunity. Can Apple falter? Of course. However they have tremendous room to maneuver and a culture that strives to make the world a better place — i.e. out do themselves. There are not too many companies out there that strive to obsolete their own products. This puts them in better a position than most. What are your thoughts?
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Post by galleybob on Jan 10, 2015 8:00:11 GMT -8
I use Apple Pay at Whole Foods, where I almost never shopped before, Home Depot, Peets Coffee, Walgreens, and was told Trader Joe's will have it some time in 2015. I was a fan of Peter Lynch and back then I was looking for a stock in a company that I really understood and then I met my wife who had a Mac Plus. I became obsessed with Apple the computer, not the stock, and then in 2000 when it went down about 90% I knew it was the time to buy. Have remained all these years still obsessed with Apple and AAPL. My son who is now 17 has followed Apple with me for years. When he was 10 he watched Steve's iPhone presentation with me on TV and we both got very excited. When it came out I told him that it would take a few years for it to really unfold and now here we are 8 years later with all the massive wealth that the iPhone generated. Thanks for the posting the chart JD. I did retire at age 56 and now I am 62 and loving the dividends. I think with buybacks the dividends will keep going up and hopefully the share price will also rise. I really think the next 8 years will also be mind boggling as Apple leverages their hardware into services which I see as subscribing to TV, music, Health Services, banking, etc.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 10, 2015 9:05:01 GMT -8
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jan 10, 2015 10:12:30 GMT -8
Disney is an interesting company. Fantastic at maximizing the value of their Intellectual Property. At the theme parks, they treat their customers better than anyone out there. There is no vacation like a Disney vacation. Was a stockholder during the Michael Eisner era when we regularly visited the parks. We even owned an Old Key West timeshare. As Michael's reign came to an end, things started to unravel. The Employees at Walt Disney World were in open rebellion against Michael -- blatantly so in front of the guests. It was like having a hole in a wall on Main Street to the staff only areas and watching Mickey and Minnie taking a drag. Didn't strike me as a positive situation. I sold. Probably later than I should have. I have been tempted to buy again, but never pulled the trigger.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 10, 2015 11:57:23 GMT -8
Peter Lynch, arguably one of the best investment managers of our time (Fidelity Magellan Fund in the 80’s), suggests that people invest in companies they know; that do a great job; that they like to patronize. Well, that's why I bought Apple in the early 90's. Buffett says the same thing, but when you look at some of his picks, he obviously needs to go beyond just 10K's to "know" a company. He's in Charter Communications. As a Charter "customer," I'd invest in an ice cubes for Eskimo's business before that PoS. I can't believe he's ever talked to a Chater customer, or read reviews of it on DSL Reports. Maybe he'll make money on it, but I'd never invest in a company I hate. Frankly, this is what makes picking other stocks so hard; I just don't believe in many companies based on my experiences with them. It's one thing to make money but treat customers like a commodity (e.g., AT&T, DirecTV). It's one thing to treat customers well but not make so much money (AMZN, TMUS). But who does both?
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Jan 10, 2015 12:43:20 GMT -8
At the risk of being repetitious, Magellan was so successful it ballooned, going from $18 Million to $14 Billion under Lynch. If I recall correctly, at it's peak Magellan was over 10% of market (don't remember which) capitalization. Lynch complained publicly that Magellan had more money than could be profitably invested. That was when I baled. Hard to beat the market when you are the market...
Growth that diverts or dilutes your focus can be deadly -- which is a cautionary point for Apple. There is little denying that one of the reasons Apple does so well is its focus. As Apple grows the temptation, indeed demand, it stray from their focus will grow stronger. How disciplined can Apple be? We shall see.
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Post by incorrigible on Jan 10, 2015 13:05:15 GMT -8
For people who have been in Apple for 10 or 20 years, the transition to an ‘income’ stock from a ‘growth’ stock may occur at an opportune time, when they would naturally shift investments to an income orientation. This has worked out nicely for me. Frist AAPL bought in 2001 (or was it 2002? Hard to remember). Stopped working (I prefer that phrase to "retired") about 1.5 years ago @ 53 due to friction and frustration at my job. With the wife still working, the timing for this transition of AAPL works out nicely for me.
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Post by nwjade on Jan 10, 2015 13:36:15 GMT -8
As I've said in recent posts I've been in the stock since 2006 and retired because of AAPL early 2013. Beyond all the great aspects we all know and discuss about the company the thing that I love looking forward to over the years is what's yet to come. They are building this huge state of the art campus and hiring talented people from all fields. I can't imagine what inventions will be coming from this consumer/business oriented skunk works...very exciting!
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Post by rickag on Jan 10, 2015 15:47:16 GMT -8
As I've said in recent posts I've been in the stock since 2006 and retired because of AAPL early 2013. Beyond all the great aspects we all know and discuss about the company the thing that I love looking forward to over the years is what's yet to come. They are building this huge state of the art campus and hiring talented people from all fields. I can't imagine what inventions will be coming from this consumer/business oriented skunk works...very exciting! I whole heartedly agree. The probabilities are in Apple's favor.
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Post by redinaustin on Jan 11, 2015 4:57:45 GMT -8
Guerrilla Marketing - nobody's better: @darrenrovell: How Beats By Dre ambushed College Football Playoff sponsors & got away with it t.co/yjFSMriBT2
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Post by dylkeeg77 on Jan 11, 2015 8:15:15 GMT -8
I'm having a hard time posting the link but check the article by Tim Bajarian at techpinions.com, titled "Techs Most Disruptive Impact Over The Next Five Years." Take note of the prominent graph, and visualize what percentage Apple could capture. Unless Apple totally screws up, Tim Cook is perfectly positioned to take his company to great lengths before this ride is over. Stay long, stay strong.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 11, 2015 9:17:38 GMT -8
I use Apple Pay at Whole Foods, where I almost never shopped before, Home Depot, Peets Coffee, Walgreens, and was told Trader Joe's will have it some time in 2015. I was a fan of Peter Lynch and back then I was looking for a stock in a company that I really understood and then I met my wife who had a Mac Plus. I became obsessed with Apple the computer, not the stock, and then in 2000 when it went down about 90% I knew it was the time to buy. Have remained all these years still obsessed with Apple and AAPL. My son who is now 17 has followed Apple with me for years. When he was 10 he watched Steve's iPhone presentation with me on TV and we both got very excited. When it came out I told him that it would take a few years for it to really unfold and now here we are 8 years later with all the massive wealth that the iPhone generated. Thanks for the posting the chart JD. I did retire at age 56 and now I am 62 and loving the dividends. I think with buybacks the dividends will keep going up and hopefully the share price will also rise. I really think the next 8 years will also be mind boggling as Apple leverages their hardware into services which I see as subscribing to TV, music, Health Services, banking, etc. Thanks for posting this, galley bob. I never get tired of reading how Apple and AAPL has positively impacted the lives of the members of this board.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 11, 2015 10:25:40 GMT -8
The ride is over.
Apple is #1 in tech over Samsung Electronics, the latter just may not know it yet. $300B in revenues is so much farther away than $200B when Apple had a $100B run rate (at least in the minds of many).
The new #1 can apply its record strength and resources and production capacities into its corporate life's work with a not-too-shabby CEO at the helm.
The ride has just begun.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 11, 2015 12:21:22 GMT -8
Also, Apple's Finance Team are a bunch of total geniuses.
Obviously can't look at it all in a vacuum but based on peak outstanding shares, estimated current shares, Apple will easily "save" $1.5B in divvy payments to shareholders in fiscal 2015 (which are set to auto-increase, so it'll be more than that) because it's repurchased maybe 12% of the company since it started the buyback program.
I'd be surprised if Apple pays even $750M in debt interest for the fiscal year based on current trends.
Yes, I know it's more complicated than that, but! So. Damn. Savvy.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 11, 2015 18:11:55 GMT -8
Oh GAWD ... I really hope Seattle doesn't win it all ... sorry fellas but I'm rooting for Rodgers ... or even Brady over Seattle. It irks me that everyone thinks Seattle is a shoe-in to win it all - ugh.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jan 11, 2015 18:24:09 GMT -8
Steve Jobs would have loved the Seattle Seahawks.
Sorry Phoebes. Gonna win it all
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jan 11, 2015 19:35:41 GMT -8
Steve Jobs would have loved the Seattle Seahawks. Sorry Phoebes. Gonna win it all See you in Glendale, Red.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 11, 2015 21:17:52 GMT -8
Actually, this is what Seahawks fans look like:
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