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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 10, 2012 13:27:00 GMT -8
IMHO, if we can't get over 645, we're going back down to retest yesterday's LOD. Intraday or close Ms. Jedi?...when 300 years you reach, look as good you will not. Sorry, Max! Missed this post until now! I was thinking close. Well, this doesn't entirely suck because we did hold 637. But it partially sucks because 645 should have been easier to reclaim.
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Post by podboy on Oct 10, 2012 13:31:24 GMT -8
Does anyone open up "short term" deep ITM spreads? I am thinking of doing a Jan 13 500-550 for a possible 28% profit at expiration.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 10, 2012 13:36:03 GMT -8
Spain downgraded.
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Post by rickag on Oct 10, 2012 13:41:25 GMT -8
Green!!!!! Im working so I cant read this board right now. Anywho.. Its kind of odd that the ipad mini invitations didnt go out today the news articles said today was the day. Im really hoping that we have hit bottom. Good for you. Other posters have mentioned stop losses and trailing stops, have you tried these? It might help you sleep better. Sorry I can't help more but I don't use margin and my investments are longer out than if I were just trading shares, anyway good luck.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 10, 2012 13:48:47 GMT -8
iPad announcements go out tomorrow..... You heard it here first I will post this every day until it is true...... Quick, have Dalrymple yep it! Hopefully the media invite or news of it will pop up right around earnings.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 10, 2012 13:52:56 GMT -8
I know many don't agree - and yet some do. I would still love to see this happen:http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2012/10/10/sorry-ped-of-course-apple-can-and-will-buy-twitter/
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Post by wheeles on Oct 10, 2012 13:53:25 GMT -8
Hopefully the media invite or news of it will pop up right around earnings. No thanks. I want it ASAP to give AAPL a run to the event and then on to earnings. Need to get a decent squeeze going and the momo guys piling on.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 10, 2012 13:54:46 GMT -8
Is anyone surprised? The market narrative is really something right now. SPX 50-day test. Markets cooling off (hopefully more like a healthy pullback). DAX drifting back to 7000. NASDAQ may retest 3000. Not worried longer term, just being tactical with trades with mixed success. AMZN is seriously reversing so I'm going short again just in time to get whipsawed to another loss I bet . Experimenting with GOOG long/short trades while I wait. This is a trying out choppy markets/learning phase for me. No big commitments until I can see trends again. Not worried at all about AAPL in a month or three. Just poor visibility.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 10, 2012 13:56:23 GMT -8
Wheeles, I wanted iPad mini/Air news yesterday. But recent history suggests an iMore-class or better rumor source has to put an invite date out there first. I would be very pleasantly surprised if there's a media invite within a week from now.
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Post by qualitywte on Oct 10, 2012 13:57:33 GMT -8
Isn't it rather contradictory (and stupid) for the Fudsters to be predicting Apple's doom because of supply issues (can't meet supply) at the same time they are claiming its due to lack of demand for iPhone5 due to its faults?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 10, 2012 14:05:12 GMT -8
Many thanks to Ted for gifting us with another 150K ad-free hits!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 10, 2012 14:05:47 GMT -8
Many thanks to another anonymous donor for gifting us with 150K ad-free hits!(Remember, I don't see the names, so if you want me to know it was you, drop me a PM!)
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 10, 2012 14:09:45 GMT -8
Hey, everyone! Thank you SO much to all of our generous donors for gifting us with ad-free clicks! Let us now hold off on any more donations please, as our piggy bank is quite loaded: I've allocated 150K (21 credits) to October, 100K (14 credits) to November, 100K (14 credits) to December...and still have 476 credits banked. Ad-free Statistics for October, 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Credits Used:* 21 Total Ad-free Pageviews Purchased: 150,000 Ad-free Pageviews Used: 63,196 Ad-Free Pageviews Left: 86,804 * 7 credits = 50,000 ad-free pageviews
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2012 14:23:56 GMT -8
I hate to be a pessimist, but I keep reminding myself that this whole mini iPad thing has come from the press, our PE is around 15 and we have seen it as low as 12, and Elder has come out with some pretty strong FUD. I believe in Apple and would hold on all the way back to 100, but we may not be ready to rise again. Unless we are. And I feel strongly about that, but I could be wrong. Unless I am not. Maybe. Don't worry about it. At any time since Oct 1, 2009 you could have purchased AAPL, and it would be higher (never to return to your entry point) 6 months later. Ignore the pundits (no matter who they are) and buy, then ignore your purchase for 6 months. After that you will sleep like a baby, fretting only over why you didn't buy more.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2012 14:24:56 GMT -8
Hey, everyone! Thank you SO much to all of our generous donors for gifting us with ad-free clicks! Let us now hold off on any more donations please, as our piggy bank is quite loaded: I've allocated 150K (21 credits) to October, 100K (14 credits) to November, 100K (14 credits) to December...and still have 476 credits banked. Ad-free Statistics for October, 2012 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Credits Used:* 21 Total Ad-free Pageviews Purchased: 150,000 Ad-free Pageviews Used: 63,196 Ad-Free Pageviews Left: 86,804 * 7 credits = 50,000 ad-free Pageviews How much is a single credit?
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 10, 2012 14:24:56 GMT -8
Does anyone open up "short term" deep ITM spreads? I am thinking of doing a Jan 13 500-550 for a possible 28% profit at expiration. Take a look at the Jan '13 630/650; you can get a double on that. Slightly less of a slam dunk than the 500/550, but close.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2012 14:32:20 GMT -8
Lovey, Have I mentioned how much I like breaking AAPL Intraday Updates into the days of the week, or giving us quick navigation to individual pages of the thread? Don't know why others couldn't do the same (just lazy I guess).
Thank you.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Oct 10, 2012 14:39:17 GMT -8
Lovey, Have I mentioned how much I like breaking AAPL Intraday Updates into the days of the week, or giving us quick navigation to individual pages of the thread? Don't know why others couldn't do the same (just lazy I guess). Thank you. +1 Excellent point, Gregg
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 10, 2012 14:56:23 GMT -8
How much is a single credit? $1 per credit. And thank you for the kind words!!!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 10, 2012 14:57:51 GMT -8
All other donations should be made for guacamole n' chips, Jalapeno Cheddar snack mix, and drinks/spirits for Weekend Updates. Thanks to all the donors! Woohoo!
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 10, 2012 14:59:14 GMT -8
After reading Zaky's article, and plugging in some low numbers and multiples, I decided to buy a bit more today. I was really aiming for a chunk of Jan '14 690-750's at $20, but even raising it on up to $20.30 it never went through. I had to head out the door before the end of the day.
But I also decided to buy a chunk of Jan '14 650-750's, which I got for $37. Max gain of 170%, or around 120% annualized.
They should be good positions, with a fairly large likelyhood of maxing out.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 10, 2012 15:01:39 GMT -8
Lovey, Have I mentioned how much I like breaking AAPL Intraday Updates into the days of the week, or giving us quick navigation to individual pages of the thread? Don't know why others couldn't do the same (just lazy I guess). Thank you. It makes you wonder, doesn't it. The only "issue" at the moment is being able to float the real-time AAPL ticker on, say, any page, maybe at the top. But that's hardly a big deal, and really, it's probably best that there only be one page with it, because it _will_ drain a little battery on mobile.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2012 15:16:04 GMT -8
Latest Gartner & IDC PC marketshare report is out.
Apple gained percentage in both reports, but both reports had the entire US PC market contracting by more than 10% in Q3. So the upshot is that they think apple gained marketshare but shipped less than last year.
Whatever the actual amount of units shipped are, I am certain the Macbook Pro w/ Retina display gave the Mac ASP a huge bump up.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 10, 2012 15:21:04 GMT -8
Andy is great, but he calls a P/E "within a range of 14.5 to 15.5 ... a fitting valuation for the world’s only mega-cap growth company" and says AAPL has "fair value at 15x earnings". It's the "fair" valuation rhetoric at a P/E of 15 that I take issue with. It seems like capitulation. Part of what makes AAPL such a great investment is that it's so undervalued on a P/E basis. He left that out of his analysis. We'll see what the market decides going forward. While you might not feel that the given P/E range is right, it is what has been given to AAPL over the years, and the continual fear of "growth is going to end because Apple is already so big" is going to continue, IMO. Infact, for my price modeling I feel AAPL's P/E is going to continue to drop 1 point per year, on both the low and high side, for the next 2 years. The nice this is that this drop is so much lower than over the past 5-7 years. So if Apple's earnings continue to grow at such a great rate, having only a little more P/E compression means that the stock price is going to soar. The other nice this is that if you use conservative estimates, as long as you are pretty bullish you are still going to be happy. Personally I felt I missed out on a bunch by writing July covered calls against some shares picked up in January, and this "only" making a 50% annualized rate of return. But heck, I made $100 per share in 6 months, so I didn't shed so many tears. OTOH, by picking up bull call spreads that end up deep in the money, I might miss out on some extra gains if I had been more risky, but anytime I'm making 100% annualized returns, and can do it relatively consistently and relatively low risk, it makes all other forms of investing look like the return on a savings account. Estimating with a reasonable or even conservative P/E is a margin of safety that's good to have. After a few huge losses, and a couple decent scares, I'd rather make good money and leave a little on the table, than earn a couple extra percent but have to worry on a big expiration day if the stock is going to close above my strike by a few pennies, or below by a few pennies. At Jan '12 expiration, if the stock had closed 17 cents lower I would have ended up with an extra 10k of shares in my account Monday morning....something which I didn't have the cash, margin, or desire to own.
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Post by Wile E. Coyote on Oct 10, 2012 15:27:29 GMT -8
podboy, You used to be sweet lovable podboy. But recently you have turned into, "Run! Here comes 'PODBOY!!!" Funny how an avatar can change your whole personality...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 10, 2012 15:31:55 GMT -8
Andy is great, but he calls a P/E "within a range of 14.5 to 15.5 ... a fitting valuation for the world’s only mega-cap growth company" and says AAPL has "fair value at 15x earnings". It's the "fair" valuation rhetoric at a P/E of 15 that I take issue with. It seems like capitulation. Part of what makes AAPL such a great investment is that it's so undervalued on a P/E basis. He left that out of his analysis. We'll see what the market decides going forward. While you might not feel that the given P/E range is right, it is what has been given to AAPL over the years, and the continual fear of "growth is going to end because Apple is already so big" is going to continue, IMO. Infact, for my price modeling I feel AAPL's P/E is going to continue to drop 1 point per year, on both the low and high side, for the next 2 years. The nice this is that this drop is so much lower than over the past 5-7 years. So if Apple's earnings continue to grow at such a great rate, having only a little more P/E compression means that the stock price is going to soar. The other nice this is that if you use conservative estimates, as long as you are pretty bullish you are still going to be happy. Personally I felt I missed out on a bunch by writing July covered calls against some shares picked up in January, and this "only" making a 50% annualized rate of return. But heck, I made $100 per share in 6 months, so I didn't shed so many tears. OTOH, by picking up bull call spreads that end up deep in the money, I might miss out on some extra gains if I had been more risky, but anytime I'm making 100% annualized returns, and can do it relatively consistently and relatively low risk, it makes all other forms of investing look like the return on a savings account. Estimating with a reasonable or even conservative P/E is a margin of safety that's good to have. After a few huge losses, and a couple decent scares, I'd rather make good money and leave a little on the table, than earn a couple extra percent but have to worry on a big expiration day if the stock is going to close above my strike by a few pennies, or below by a few pennies. At Jan '12 expiration, if the stock had closed 17 cents lower I would have ended up with an extra 10k of shares in my account Monday morning....something which I didn't have the cash, margin, or desire to own. Good post. Personally I make all my long term AAPL invesments on the basis of a P/E of 10 ex-cash. Anything above that is gravy. Consider that apple is likely to have more than $200 cash per share by Jan 14. On a related note, Horace Dediu has tracked a valuation based on an observation that AAPL share price roughly tracks at 5 times AAPL cash per share. No explanation for it, but the relations seems to hold. Case in point, for October earnings apple should have about $130 cash per share - times that by 5 and we come to a share price of $650.00
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Post by podboy on Oct 10, 2012 15:44:09 GMT -8
podboy, You used to be sweet lovable podboy. But recently you have turned into, "Run! Here comes 'PODBOY!!!" Funny how an avatar can change your whole personality... Lolz...times are a changin
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Post by incorrigible on Oct 10, 2012 16:12:47 GMT -8
Thank you for the added feature of PRE and After hours volume and prices on the home page. That decimal point almost had this GrandPa in a dither. I saw 91,000.00 in volume and thought it said 91 Million. Must get my eyes checked. It's awesome. Thanks. Can we put it nearer the top? Excellent! Thanks.
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Post by Wile E. Coyote on Oct 10, 2012 16:17:03 GMT -8
podboy, You used to be sweet lovable podboy. But recently you have turned into, "Run! Here comes 'PODBOY!!!" Funny how an avatar can change your whole personality... Lolz...times are a changin ...and now in tonights “Winner Takes All” ulitimate avatar fighting match it’s PODBOY!!! vs. Wheeles. Help, Help, C’mon rutgersguy92 avatar, only you can save him!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 10, 2012 16:27:34 GMT -8
Well, _I_ like where the ticker's at now...let's see what everyone thinks.
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