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Post by terps530 on Oct 11, 2012 7:48:23 GMT -8
it's been fighting that 645ish wall all yesterday and while we opened above, i guess that didn't count? Some people were saying that on that gross day Tuesday, we didn't get quite low enough. Maybe this is the retest that those people wanted to see? We'll see how the day goes I guess. It only sucks for peeps with short term options imo (im guilty of some currently). Otherwise I think anywhere at these levels are still good buys for 3-6months out.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 11, 2012 7:53:06 GMT -8
I'm trying to make some sort of sense to this move and all I can see is it being a possible retest of the reverse side of a broken down trend line on the daily chart. It's a pretty tenuous line, so might be a case of seeing a line where one doesn't exist.
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Post by zzmac on Oct 11, 2012 7:53:24 GMT -8
That's a great idea. Thanks. A friend of mine is a client at Canaccord and he let's them do all his trading for him. They finally got him into a few shares of Apple before the last big runup (bought around $590) but talked him into selling the other day around $638. They told him because of technicals and daily moving averages that it was going to tank and could see $550. What would you say to him besides finding a new broker? :-) I would tell him to join us here. I would have him open a "paper" account to "trade" for at least a year while reading this forum.
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 11, 2012 7:53:59 GMT -8
The Galaxy Nexus is hardly worth worrying about at this point. It makes up very little of Samdung's sales ... I'm not sure anyone can point to a reason for this selloff , I just keep reminding myself how many times we've seen this action before only to recover. I still see NO change in Apple's business that would lead to such a sale so I'll chalk it up to chartists and traders having their fun. Nexus is no big deal, but if people see "Apple Falls on Reversal of Samsung Decision" it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy if some people sell first and ask questions later. Seems like the last spike down followed this FUD.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 11, 2012 8:15:17 GMT -8
I'm usually a big fan of "Drinking With Bob" but he's really gone too far this time... www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdsOgx-vtW4I categorically deny all these scurrilous allegations.
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Post by sponge on Oct 11, 2012 8:19:07 GMT -8
Several have mentioned we may revisit 620s after hitting the low on Tuesday and rebounding nicely. Lots of margin calls still being settled this week. I see a strong move to the upside next week. We won't see $700 again untill well past earnings into Nov. The dividend will help us in Nov as money gets reinvested in aapl. Seen this movie before a million times in the last 8 years. No chart can tell you the highs and lows or the timing of them more then a week ahead of time. Buy and Hold And buy only long LEAPS.
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Post by podboy on Oct 11, 2012 8:24:20 GMT -8
Long BCS's are not too shabby either ; )
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 11, 2012 8:35:11 GMT -8
Bull put spreads are great too. And unlike BCS, there's no risk of having shares called away and missing the dividend.
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Post by onemoreanimal on Oct 11, 2012 8:35:38 GMT -8
FUD is strong out there. I keep reading article after article saying things like "the reason Apple only sold 5 million phones was due to Maps" and "there are no more big products to look forward to this year." The last article didn't have one word about the iPad Mini.
I can't help but think they're just trying to set AAPL up for earnings.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 11, 2012 9:00:23 GMT -8
FUD is strong out there. I keep reading article after article saying things like "the reason Apple only sold 5 million phones was due to Maps" and "there are no more big products to look forward to this year." The last article didn't have one word about the iPad Mini. I can't help but think they're just trying to set AAPL up for earnings. There is a lot of FUD out there. Until Apple does something to quiet the FUD, this will continue.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 11, 2012 9:00:26 GMT -8
Very quiet in here, I guess everyone is as shocked as I am to see AAPL under-perform so badly. I'm too jaded and cynical and paranoid to be shocked. The EOs took their profits at the top; now they're holding out for lower prices because they CAN. And...when buyers hold out for lower prices, prices fall.
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Post by jeffi on Oct 11, 2012 9:02:00 GMT -8
Very quiet in here, I guess everyone is as shocked as I am to see AAPL under-perform so badly. Manipulation?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 11, 2012 9:03:47 GMT -8
A friend of mine is a client at Canaccord and he let's them do all his trading for him. They finally got him into a few shares of Apple before the last big runup (bought around $590) but talked him into selling the other day around $638. They told him because of technicals and daily moving averages that it was going to tank and could see $550. What would you say to him besides finding a new broker? :-) Keep your broker and put a buy stop to repurchase if it goes above 640.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 11, 2012 9:04:25 GMT -8
LOL, Jeffi!!!
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 11, 2012 9:05:20 GMT -8
Very quiet in here, I guess everyone is as shocked as I am to see AAPL under-perform so badly. I'm too jaded and cynical and paranoid to be shocked. That may be the ugliest bearish engulfing candle I have ever seen. The set-up was amazing, large gap up, then cut the legs out. I thought we may have bottomed 2 days ago, now I am not so sure.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 11, 2012 9:07:18 GMT -8
Mark, yep... We have yet to see any significant follow-through to the upside. Big money isn't buying.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,631
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 11, 2012 9:09:51 GMT -8
Just standard volatility. The percentages are a little higher than normal, but it's not that crazy. Like Zaky said, this sure seems like or very close to the bottom, with all the negativity. When I looked at AAPL on Yahoo yesterday morning, 7 of the 9 articles were negative outlook, negative news, or questioning. For better or worse, Apple has gone from the underdog that people sometimes like to kick, to the 800 lbs gorilla that while people don't expect to stumble often, they may cheer when it does....and it makes great news.
Personally, I'm looking at buying another chunk of bull call spreads. I was gunning for Jan '14 690-750 yesterday for about $20. I might put a little into something sooner, but I've had too many negative experiences with many of the months to want to put serious money into them. Still, a little here and a little there helps balance everything out, and now with the iPad in FQ 2, the dip that quarter hasn't really happened in the last couple years like it used to when it was a fairly quiet quarter right after the yearly best quarter.
On yesterday's P/E discussion with the great point of recalculating them with the restated earnings, the problem with that is that it only affects one of the 2 numbers in the ratio. I remember on TMF and theAAPLinvestor of many of us being disappointed with the stock price staying so low at the time, because while they were making money a lot of it was being banked and not counted as earnings yet. Most investors likely didn't even know of these stealth earnings, though it was finally getting reported a little more right before they switched their accounting standards.
So if the stock price was depressed because the stated earnings were depressed from the actual earnings, IMO you really can't just go back and use the restated earnings to figure out a different P/E. I mean you can, but IMO it's not accurate. There's not really a good way to go about doing it, but the best case would be to use a factor to make a virtual P/E somewhere between the 2 numbers. And if you really want to get fancy, maybe you vary that variable based on how much you think the market used those stealth earnings in coming up with the current pricing, thus maybe you start off with a P/E of actual + 40% of the delta, but just before the change when more people are taking it into account, maybe you use actual + 70% of the delta.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 11, 2012 9:10:40 GMT -8
Bull put spreads are great too. And unlike BCS, there's no risk of having shares called away and missing the dividend. Excellent point!!
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Post by Lstream on Oct 11, 2012 9:14:30 GMT -8
FUD is strong out there. I keep reading article after article saying things like "the reason Apple only sold 5 million phones was due to Maps" and "there are no more big products to look forward to this year." The last article didn't have one word about the iPad Mini. I can't help but think they're just trying to set AAPL up for earnings. There is a lot of FUD out there. Until Apple does something to quiet the FUD, this will continue. Apple is powerless to stop much of this FUD. They are never going to reveal future product plans, to deal with concerns about the next big thing. They are a prisoner of past success on this one. They have successfully disrupted and created several markets. Now they have to deal with expectations that they must perform this magic trick as a matter of course. Professional doubters will never tire of this story line, no matter what Apple says or does. And here we have an iPhone 5 which almost every professional review site calls a monster home run. But when it comes to Apple, there is mileage in slamming the product by those with an axe to grind. Apple has done all they can by delivering an amazing device. What could the possibly do to shut these people up? Nothing that I can think of, because if Apple doesn't hand them an issue like Maps, they would just turn around and make one up. Fighting this FUD would just lead to more of it, because low-life FUD pedlars want the spotlight. The only way to shut them up for a bit is with sales results. Hopefully they are strong.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 11, 2012 9:23:32 GMT -8
That is what I meant Lstream. Apple needs to provide some good numbers at earnings or the carnage will continue. I do not expect Apple to answer all the hit-whore pieces by SA and the like. Zaky put the qualifier in his posting to CYA if the bottom was not in, I don't think anyone feels comfortable (near term) about where we are going.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 11, 2012 9:30:40 GMT -8
IMHO, big money knows how wonderful AAPL is...that's why they are shaking out weak hands so they can reload at the bottom -- and THEY will determine where the bottom is.
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Post by onemoreanimal on Oct 11, 2012 9:32:55 GMT -8
Mark, yep... We have yet to see any significant follow-through to the upside. Big money isn't buying. Lloyd Blankfein told CNBC this morning that Goldman Sachs "would be out buying if the fiscal cliff is resolved." Regardless of product announcements or earnings, that is going to be over our heads for a while.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 11, 2012 9:33:35 GMT -8
Like Zaky said, this sure seems like or very close to the bottom, with all the negativity. When I looked at AAPL on Yahoo yesterday morning, 7 of the 9 articles were negative outlook, negative news, or questioning. Zaky might have said the same, but my memory of the article was this, from nanseninvestments.com/"No matter how many times I sit through these sell offs, I never really get used to the fear and lack of confidence that sweeps through everyone that holds Apple. It is almost a perfect signal when to buy. I honestly would not have the courage to buy if I had not spent so many hundreds of hours studying Apple and everything about it. The complete knowledge of this company gives me the confidence to pull the trigger when it comes down into my lower PE range. If I lacked this confidence, I honestly could not have gone all in. If Apple were to slip lower than 623 in the next 2 days, that confidence is the only thing that would allow me to walk away from the computer and not worry or hit the sell button to get out of all my trades. I Know. It’s that simple. You can not make big bets in this game and sit through difficult periods unless you have the confidence. The only way you have that confidence is putting in the time and studying up on Apple and everything about it."
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 11, 2012 9:52:32 GMT -8
I like Nick.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 11, 2012 9:52:32 GMT -8
Like Zaky said, this sure seems like or very close to the bottom, with all the negativity. When I looked at AAPL on Yahoo yesterday morning, 7 of the 9 articles were negative outlook, negative news, or questioning. Zaky might have said the same, but my memory of the article was this, from nanseninvestments.com/"No matter how many times I sit through these sell offs, I never really get used to the fear and lack of confidence that sweeps through everyone that holds Apple. It is almost a perfect signal when to buy. I honestly would not have the courage to buy if I had not spent so many hundreds of hours studying Apple and everything about it. The complete knowledge of this company gives me the confidence to pull the trigger when it comes down into my lower PE range. If I lacked this confidence, I honestly could not have gone all in. If Apple were to slip lower than 623 in the next 2 days, that confidence is the only thing that would allow me to walk away from the computer and not worry or hit the sell button to get out of all my trades. I Know. It’s that simple. You can not make big bets in this game and sit through difficult periods unless you have the confidence. The only way you have that confidence is putting in the time and studying up on Apple and everything about it." That may be the best thing I have ever read to calm people down. I still want to puke, but now I won't be so nervous while I am doing it.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 11, 2012 9:53:32 GMT -8
Very quiet in here, I guess everyone is as shocked as I am to see AAPL under-perform so badly. Sry, MB I am scuba diving for a while. (cleaning the kitchen with a pile of soap and water). I would not be surprised for a profound jump between now and T-day.
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Oct 11, 2012 10:00:48 GMT -8
The markets are making it tough on this bull.
Luckily, AMZN is FINALLY repricing a bit after losing 250. Maybe I can make up some losses over the next few days/weeks.
Over at Braeburn I'm sure Mercel and others are crowing about AMZN's recent weakness. It was only a matter of when, though I'm not convinced a NFLX-type event is afoot.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 11, 2012 10:02:35 GMT -8
OK. So the last chart I posted turned out to be garbage, as I suspected. This one looks a bit more convincing. The close below the 50 DMA on Friday really messed things up, but this one seems to fit far better.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 11, 2012 10:04:29 GMT -8
Zaky might have said the same, but my memory of the article was this, from nanseninvestments.com/"No matter how many times I sit through these sell offs, I never really get used to the fear and lack of confidence that sweeps through everyone that holds Apple. It is almost a perfect signal when to buy. I honestly would not have the courage to buy if I had not spent so many hundreds of hours studying Apple and everything about it. The complete knowledge of this company gives me the confidence to pull the trigger when it comes down into my lower PE range. If I lacked this confidence, I honestly could not have gone all in. If Apple were to slip lower than 623 in the next 2 days, that confidence is the only thing that would allow me to walk away from the computer and not worry or hit the sell button to get out of all my trades. I Know. It’s that simple. You can not make big bets in this game and sit through difficult periods unless you have the confidence. The only way you have that confidence is putting in the time and studying up on Apple and everything about it." That may be the best thing I have ever read to calm people down. I still want to puke, but now I won't be so nervous while I am doing it. MB, this one is even better, from the lead article by Nick: "Apple is in the process of retesting the lows here and now. It’s important to find out if the support we saw come into Apple at 623 is real before we go higher. I feel the fear starting to permeate the air again as people are letting the negative feelings overwhelm them. The key thing to remember is Apple will be 13.5 times earnings in 2 weeks from today. I want you to put the iphone 5 in your hands and just hold it. Now think of 13.5 times earnings for a company that will soon have close to 130 Billion dollars in the bank in 2 weeks. This is a company that will probably grow it’s earnings around 50% in the next year. 13.5 times earnings for a company with 130 Billion in the bank growing at 50% a year with a new iphone that is the finest piece of micro engineering ever produced. Have you looked at how finely finished this iphone is? It is a piece of jewelry. It is over engineered. I am proud to own it and the company that made it. Now, take a deep breath and turn the computer screen off and go for a walk. Apple will be here when you return. No matter what happens in this retest, in 3 months this stock is going to be much higher and all your fears will seem so silly.
When fear is working on you and you let it start to dominate your thinking it will lead to bad decisions. You made a great investment in Apple so let the fear go. The best way is to step aside and just be quiet. Focus on the future and let all these fears lift. Now go enjoy the rest of your day."Man, I love it.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 11, 2012 10:08:18 GMT -8
That is what I meant Lstream. Apple needs to provide some good numbers at earnings or the carnage will continue. I do not expect Apple to answer all the hit-whore pieces by SA and the like. Zaky put the qualifier in his posting to CYA if the bottom was not in, I don't think anyone feels comfortable (near term) about where we are going. Ya - we are on the same page.
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