chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Feb 13, 2015 15:28:22 GMT -8
Finally, the post-earnings bump we have all been waiting for! Add in the dividend payment, and it was a lovely week for AAPL holders. For once the FUD Squad was matched pretty effectively this week by debunkers of same, along with price target increases (and I foresee more in the offing) as well as a solid batch of positive commentary, both Uncle Carl and some of the more speculative (cars? really?) variety. Still very bullish about the Eastern Hemisphere quarter. So drink up, it's on the house this week (at least metaphorically) !
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 13, 2015 15:50:29 GMT -8
I'm at my best in those weeks when Apple closes at an all-time high..... Shu Qi prefers a nice red, as I recall.......ah, Mercel, you haven't a chance despite all your twelve braggers.
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Post by geraci on Feb 13, 2015 16:05:26 GMT -8
An Apple car sounds speculative to me, but today the WSJ is reporting this: "Apple executives have flown to Austria to meet with contract manufacturers for high-end cars including the Magna Steyr unit of Canadian auto supplier Magna International Inc." The contract manufacturing part sounds about right, though. www.wsj.com/articles/apples-titan-car-project-to-challenge-tesla-1423868072
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Post by CdnPhoto on Feb 13, 2015 16:22:33 GMT -8
A friend of mine visiting Hong Kong right now just sent me a picture of the Apple Store there. His comments were that there were crazy lineup there. When I asked why the line ups, his comments was: I have a feeling this will be a really good quarter for AAPL.
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Post by pauls on Feb 13, 2015 16:23:49 GMT -8
Gives a whole new meaning to 'Car Talk'.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Feb 13, 2015 21:56:30 GMT -8
I do not believe a word of this. With all the talk about focussing on a few products and the importance of saying no 100 times to every yes, diverting resources to develop a high end car would be completely counter to everything Apple stands for. It. Makes. No. Sense. I will not hold a share of Apple if this comes to pass.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Feb 13, 2015 22:35:10 GMT -8
I do not believe a word of this. With all the talk about focussing on a few products and the importance of saying no 100 times to every yes, diverting resources to develop a high end car would be completely counter to everything Apple stands for. It. Makes. No. Sense. I will not hold a share of Apple if this comes to pass. Disagree completely for reasons I'll post later. I like this. I'll buy every share you own.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Feb 14, 2015 0:48:53 GMT -8
You might be interested in what another company's financials have to say about that, bud...
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Post by mace on Feb 14, 2015 3:13:30 GMT -8
Coma,
$143 is the old number for $1T market cap before stock buyback. New number is $170 as pointed out by Mav.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 14, 2015 5:21:02 GMT -8
Mav's concept for the Applecar.... And for all my AFB peeps on this special day.....
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macorange
Member
My actual dog is cuter.
Posts: 60
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Post by macorange on Feb 14, 2015 6:26:40 GMT -8
I've made more money from my TSLA LEAPs than my AAPL LEAPs the last few years, so I'm not sure how this works out for me personally, but as a long-term Apple fan, I'm thrilled about the prospect of Apple entering the electric car market. Apple needs new markets to continue to grow aggressively, and these markets need to be huge in terms of revenues to move the needle. Cars are the perfect market from a size perspective alone.
Electric cars have greatly simplified the automotive engineering aspect of automobiles. Increasingly cars will be differentiated in the market by software and design, Apple's main strengths.
It will take billions to enter this market properly, something Apple also uniquely possesses. And while I'm a big fan of giving cash back to shareholders, I'm even a bigger fan of using some of the money instead to open a new market that has incredible potential.
Electric cars are the future. I would not trade my Model S for any other car on the planet. Every owner I know will never go back to driving combustion cars. It has nothing to do with the price of oil. To put this in terms that everyone on this board can appreciate, combustion cars are like flip phones. They no longer make any sense once a good electric car was made. It will take years for most people to come to that conclusion, but they will, and the company that builds for that now is definitely skating to where the puck is going.
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Post by Lstream on Feb 14, 2015 7:10:47 GMT -8
I do not believe a word of this. With all the talk about focussing on a few products and the importance of saying no 100 times to every yes, diverting resources to develop a high end car would be completely counter to everything Apple stands for. It. Makes. No. Sense. I will not hold a share of Apple if this comes to pass. Even if this is a dumb idea, I expect it would move the stock up. Way up. The reason is that it would let people dream in technicolor like they do for Tesla and Amazon. In Apple's current markets, we have this overhang of market saturation, and the belief that Apple will soon run out of growth room. That is what the average person thinks of Apple. If they became a player in electric vehicles, then that reason to not buy the stock would go away. The psychology of owning the stock would change. I think the market would give Apple huge benefit of the doubt in this case. Apple's financial ability to make a play in the market dwarfs that of Tesla. The balance sheets don't even compare. Apple generated more cash in the last quarter than Tesla has raised in its entire existence. They have the resources to pursue this market with chump change in Apple's world. And they could attract enough management talent to not threaten the rest of the business. So even if you disagree with the idea, I am not sure it would be a good idea to dump the stock if they begin pursuing EV's.
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Post by rickag on Feb 14, 2015 7:38:40 GMT -8
I do not believe a word of this. With all the talk about focussing on a few products and the importance of saying no 100 times to every yes, diverting resources to develop a high end car would be completely counter to everything Apple stands for. It. Makes. No. Sense. I will not hold a share of Apple if this comes to pass. I will wait and see what Apple may actually be doing. Apple doesn't manufacture any of their products except the Mac Pro, so there is the possibility they would be looking for a manufacturer. They won't enter a market they can not disrupt, so if the rumors are credible on any level, Apple must have found a distinctive advantage : battery tech? Lithium/sulphur ? lithium/air batteries?
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Post by rezonate on Feb 14, 2015 8:46:11 GMT -8
Hey, y'all - I'm going to Orlando March 24-27 for a speaking gig (unpaid, unfortunately). Any AFB members in central Florida? Interest in connecting over a drink?
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Post by michelc on Feb 14, 2015 8:50:02 GMT -8
To put this in terms that everyone on this board can appreciate, combustion cars are like flip phones. They no longer make any sense once a good electric car was made. . Well said, You don't buy a tesla to save on oil but to drive a new kind of car. This is what e musk have understood and why he is selling to the top tier of the market. When introduced, model 3 should be a game changer from early adopter to mass population. Just test drive a 85d last week and WOW As for Apple I can't see them making just a car for a car. This is not how they work. What I see is that as usual they are taking baby step in plain sight before coming up with a new game changer. Apple car play is probably the test for something else... As the rockr was. On something else... Apple announcement this week that they will have a new solar farm big enough to power all operations in ca. Something don't add up and they again probably exploring new areas of income in plain sight As per Apple environmental report the current head office is already 80% renewable energy. Campus 2 will be 100% and data centre are all at 100%. This leave basically only the store in ca to convert to green ( and some are already done). So why do they need that massive solar plan? They been exploring for years solar energy. They could have bought a maker of solar panel instead of just buying that amount of panel I would be surprise if it was just to sell back energy to the grid. There is something to investigate there...
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Post by stevereel on Feb 14, 2015 8:53:29 GMT -8
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Post by nagrani on Feb 14, 2015 8:56:07 GMT -8
Gap up on tues. Let's do this!!
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Post by PikesPique on Feb 14, 2015 9:47:03 GMT -8
That post was written by Dave Mark, not His Beardness.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Feb 14, 2015 9:49:56 GMT -8
Happy Valentine's Day, everyone!
I can never believe how lucky I am, not only for the love I receive, but also because she inspires me every day to try to be a better person by the way she lives her life.
As the Beatles said, "Love is all you need!"
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Post by tuffett on Feb 14, 2015 9:53:38 GMT -8
I've made more money from my TSLA LEAPs than my AAPL LEAPs the last few years, so I'm not sure how this works out for me personally, but as a long-term Apple fan, I'm thrilled about the prospect of Apple entering the electric car market. Apple needs new markets to continue to grow aggressively, and these markets need to be huge in terms of revenues to move the needle. Cars are the perfect market from a size perspective alone. Electric cars have greatly simplified the automotive engineering aspect of automobiles. Increasingly cars will be differentiated in the market by software and design, Apple's main strengths. It will take billions to enter this market properly, something Apple also uniquely possesses. And while I'm a big fan of giving cash back to shareholders, I'm even a bigger fan of using some of the money instead to open a new market that has incredible potential. Electric cars are the future. I would not trade my Model S for any other car on the planet. Every owner I know will never go back to driving combustion cars. It has nothing to do with the price of oil. To put this in terms that everyone on this board can appreciate, combustion cars are like flip phones. They no longer make any sense once a good electric car was made. It will take years for most people to come to that conclusion, but they will, and the company that builds for that now is definitely skating to where the puck is going. Yep, it's clear as day to me too. Range issues are being rapidly addressed. The real limiting factor is that a good electric car is currently too expensive for the middle class. But hey, wasn't everyone saying the iPhone was priced way too high as well?
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Post by tuffett on Feb 14, 2015 9:55:45 GMT -8
I do not believe a word of this. With all the talk about focussing on a few products and the importance of saying no 100 times to every yes, diverting resources to develop a high end car would be completely counter to everything Apple stands for. It. Makes. No. Sense. I will not hold a share of Apple if this comes to pass. Even if this is a dumb idea, I expect it would move the stock up. Way up. The reason is that it would let people dream in technicolor like they do for Tesla and Amazon. In Apple's current markets, we have this overhang of market saturation, and the belief that Apple will soon run out of growth room. That is what the average person thinks of Apple. If they became a player in electric vehicles, then that reason to not buy the stock would go away. The psychology of owning the stock would change. I think the market would give Apple huge benefit of the doubt in this case. Apple's financial ability to make a play in the market dwarfs that of Tesla. The balance sheets don't even compare. Apple generated more cash in the last quarter than Tesla has raised in its entire existence. They have the resources to pursue this market with chump change in Apple's world. And they could attract enough management talent to not threaten the rest of the business. So even if you disagree with the idea, I am not sure it would be a good idea to dump the stock if they begin pursuing EV's. Would also be good optics for use of cash in the instance where repatriation is allowed but cannot be used for direct shareholder return.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 14, 2015 10:13:20 GMT -8
I'm still not sure what to think of the Apple Car rumors right now... ...but in the meantime, the "economics" of getting into the car biz may NOT be as daunting as you may have first thought. If you look at the 10-Ks of a current upstart. aapltree.wordpress.com/2015/02/14/a-new-car
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Feb 14, 2015 10:43:39 GMT -8
I just don't see why Apple would want to get into a business where they have no synergy. The only place that there is an overlap at all is int he fact that modern cars rely so much on computers. Set Carplay aside for a moment. All the other computers that control the engine, braking, HVAC, and other systems are embedded computers. You simply cannot use a UNIX based OS in a real-time embedded application. Unix is not real-time. It evolved from time shared systems that gave equal priority to all processes. That is why you sometimes see it hang for minute, even if you are not using the web. Developing an automobile would mean developing and maintaining a third OS. And this is in the area that has the MOST overlap. Is Apple really going to develop in house expertise in suspensions?, design new engines? create a service and parts network? This is a huge undertaking. Sure they have enough money to go out and buy all the talent that they need, but why would you do that? Why not just partner with companies that are already in business?
As I said in a previous post, if Apple needs to expand the businesses that they are in, it is much more important to get control of the delivery of data. When Elon Musk announced a series of low earth satellites to deliver the internet, did you notice how quickly Google gave him a billion? Apple HAS to make sure that no one can get between the cloud and the devices. Imagine what would happen if Google or Comcast can intentionally block or slow down FaceTime or any other Apple service. Let someone else build the cars, this is far more important.
Perhaps i am being too cautious and don't see the opportunity, but for now I think this is a big mistake. If it generates good press and drives up the stock price, great. But if they announce something this far from the core business,, I would lose faith in management and bail
Cars vs. network infrastructure reminds me of a joke in the New Yorker. A man and a whale are crawling across a burning desert. The man says, "First let's find water, then we can worry about krill"
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Post by pauls on Feb 14, 2015 10:57:22 GMT -8
I like the idea of an Apple car (or even minivan). Along with battery tech advances and other possible disruptions that could go with it.
Musk's words from last week echo in everyone's mind (that they could have Apple's market cap in 10 yrs), as do Cook's words from the GS conference, dismissing the application of the law of large numbers to his company.
I read Cook's words as having no intention of plateauing revs, or global reach.
It answers a big question about world-changing cash piles. And Tesla has already done a lot of heavy lifting in painting a picture of an electric car future (infrastructure, giga factory, home energy storage, solar, etc.).
After reading WSJ piece, it's hard not to take it seriously. I imagine a lot of the industry is sitting up in their seats.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 14, 2015 11:35:00 GMT -8
I'm glad apple has an active skunkworks. Investigate a hundred concepts, find the two miracles. If Tim approved the next step on whatever this project is, I trust there is something there worth aggressively pursuing
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 14, 2015 11:44:16 GMT -8
Whether Apple Car is a good idea, I have no idea.
But look at Tesla Motors. In SEVEN whole years from 2006-2012, which saw the development AND wind-down of the Roadster, PLUS the development and production of the Model S, combined R&D was a little under $750M. That 7-year total could be TEN percent of Apple's 2015 R&D expenditure.
Also note Tesla's PP&E net value of a little over half a billion dollars at the end of 2012.
Apple can very easily afford getting into the car business at Tesla scale and then some if it so chose. Though yeah, it'll take years before anything ships, even if Apple fully commits to this.
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Post by macwire on Feb 14, 2015 11:47:03 GMT -8
Car profit margins are atrocious.
I don't care if they are skunk working a smart car OS that self drives but the idea they would actually sell cars seems absolutely terrible
You can't even sell cars direct to consumers anyways. How would aapl deal with that?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 14, 2015 11:59:31 GMT -8
The economics of automaking DO seem lousy. At least relative to what Apple's been doing this whole time.
But as far as a secret project is concerned, it's well within Apple's reach.
Until it's actually announced (and Apple isn't known for pre-announcing very far in advance), I don't think Wall Street will see it as a negative UNLESS things like R&D expenses start getting out of control. I wonder if the market really digested these rumors as of Friday close.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 14, 2015 11:59:59 GMT -8
If this rumor were true, Apple would be 5-7 years away at a minimum before it could even think of coming to market. Probably 10. Remember that iPad was on the drawing board before iPhone, and that is at least 2 magnitudes less complex than a car. So that gives me a lot of time to think and read about the subject before I form any absolute opinions. And to see if any market for electric cars whatsoever emerges; there is currently none - but there was no tablet market before 2010 either. And to see if electric cars are commercially practicable (let alone have the capacity for fat margins), which they currently are not.
As I've said before, roughly 40% of a Tesla S is subsidized and they still lose $10K per car. And Tesla only sold 33,000 of them in 2014, in its 12th year in business. GM has sold 74,000 Volts in 5 model years. And that $7500 federal tax credit expires after a manufacturer has 200,000 total US EV sales. And do you think the current GOP Congress is going to extend it? So forget the subsidy model as a long-term margin-saver.
That "but but we'll make money in the future at some undetermined date!" pie in the sky approach might work for Musk and Bezos, but it is a serious leap of faith to believe that WS will suddenly be really cool and let Apple adopt such a cavalier attitude towards profits. I remember when 35% GM's at Apple were a disaster of epic proportions. Remember how fun that was? BMW has ~20% gross margins. Porsche supposedly has near 50% GM's on its high end models. Which are ~$200K. The one thing Apple has going for it is the brand is a sort of Veblen good in terms of ASPs, so there's that. Jony does like his Bentleys and Austin Martins.
Apple has proven it doesn't need to be first to market. So it can sit back and watch what happens to Teslas and Volts from a sales and profit standpoint. But so far, EV's are selling like cold cakes.
This also assumes that it's electric rather than a hybrid. I consider hybrids much more realistic market- and performance-wise. Oil and gasoline are not going away for hundreds of years, and most people alive today will probably always want that backup energy option when the batteries die unless they are letting their dogma run over their Karma. But of course internal combustion engines add even more complexity to an already complex car. And Apple might have some battery breakthroughs in the works. Might. But that battery breakthrough wishful thinking has been going on for a century with EV's.
We know Apple works on a lot of things that never see the light of day. And this rumor has some really big holes.
Frankly, we have a lot of other more pressing things to worry about than a rumor about a product that is probably a decade away if it even exists at all.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 14, 2015 12:04:25 GMT -8
Could just be CarPlay Extreme too.
I'd personally prefer Apple just let Special Projects do its thing without its R&D budget "getting too out of hand" (whatever that means), and if it comes out with something great every 5-10 years, awesome. iPhone, Watch, Mac and iPad + software can keep Apple growing just fine as it is.
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