chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Feb 17, 2015 11:28:00 GMT -8
Neil Cybart's article has excellent ideas and good arguments for the car project. His thinking is way beyond my short-term view and makes me think the car might be real. Certainly, the article is a typically thoughtful effort by Mr. Cybart, but the key observation IMHO is this one: "It is hard to write what Apple may or may not do in the automobile industry because Apple doesn't even know the answers yet. We are still looking at a 3-5 year horizon for this project. Ideas need to be discussed, tested, and at times thrown away in order to truly come up with a product worthy of receiving one of Apple's rare "yes" approvals." I'm not saying that it can't happen, just that it's too soon to tell. Apple is one of the few companies that can afford, or is willing to take the risk, that such a substantial investment may not pan out.
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Feb 17, 2015 12:11:22 GMT -8
I sold out of my April positions and half of my Julys. Feels like we're close to a near-term top here... I can't decide. All sorts of good news coming up soon - Watch release, maybe comments on new product lines (cars, TVs, whatever), more buyback, increased dividend, maybe addition to DJIA, another good quarter (with that huge overhang of iPhone 6 demand), etc.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 17, 2015 12:23:29 GMT -8
Neil Cybart's article has excellent ideas and good arguments for the car project. His thinking is way beyond my short-term view and makes me think the car might be real. Certainly, the article is a typically thoughtful effort by Mr. Cybart, but the key observation IMHO is this one: "It is hard to write what Apple may or may not do in the automobile industry because Apple doesn't even know the answers yet. We are still looking at a 3-5 year horizon for this project. Ideas need to be discussed, tested, and at times thrown away in order to truly come up with a product worthy of receiving one of Apple's rare "yes" approvals." I'm not saying that it can't happen, just that it's too soon to tell. Apple is one of the few companies that can afford, or is willing to take the risk, that such a substantial investment may not pan out. Yep. Developing a car is "so cheap" for Apple's scale, we probably wouldn't even notice it in the financials for some tme.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 17, 2015 12:44:34 GMT -8
Why Samsung Design StinksKevin Lee calls it "Steve Jobs Syndrome." As the former head of product strategy and user experience design at Samsung Design America, Lee watched as the $100 billion Korean tech giant wrote check after check to countless Western design firms to develop future products for the Korean company. The designers would dig in their heels, refusing to budge on their grand idea or see how it might fit into Samsung’s vast production line. And Samsung management would either discard the idea entirely, or water it down so much that the product became another meaningless SKU in the hundreds of products Samsung sells today. "I’ve seen amazing concepts and prototypes. It was like, ‘Wow, if only we had that in the market, the rest of the market would go bankrupt,’" Lee says. www.fastcodesign.com/3042408/why-samsung-design-stinksand bgr.com/2015/02/17/samsung-vs-apple-design/
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Feb 17, 2015 12:46:10 GMT -8
I sold out of my April positions and half of my Julys. Feels like we're close to a near-term top here... I can't decide. All sorts of good news coming up soon - Watch release, maybe comments on new product lines (cars, TVs, whatever), more buyback, increased dividend, maybe addition to DJIA, another good quarter (with that huge overhang of iPhone 6 demand), etc. One of the things I watch is how options are moving relative to the stock price. Options prices, at least the ones I'm watching, are a tad more positive. For example I have a Jan 2016 Call Spread. The Net Bid / Ask has been moving up most of the day despite the repeated pull backs. It is currently at high of the day, though AAPL is not. That implies, daily FUD notwithstanding, that at least someone out there thinks Apple is going up long term and is placing bets.
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 17, 2015 13:06:59 GMT -8
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 17, 2015 13:07:55 GMT -8
Would have preferred a close over $128.
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Post by macwire on Feb 17, 2015 13:11:25 GMT -8
Would have preferred a close over $128. a billion dollars worth of MOC orders as people lined up to sell 2100 spx i would expect the market to struggle with 2100 spx and go and back test the prior break out...2065-70 before breaking higher.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Feb 17, 2015 13:15:52 GMT -8
It's always the context. Some wild swings going on in after market trading.
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Post by nagrani on Feb 17, 2015 13:16:15 GMT -8
Mace - what's the latest EW count?!?
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Post by Volvocoupe on Feb 17, 2015 14:04:02 GMT -8
Watching the Reuters news feed as Soros and Tepper's Appoloosa cut their AAPL stake to zero and Omega Adviors sold off a substantial amount before the end of 2014. Hedge Fund ownership is only 2.91% of the float. Wonder if they have been buying again? Nice to see my fellow Canadian and clown O'Leary selling Apple into strength. Talk about a guy who thinks he's a rock star. Was in the office awhile back flogging his crap. No thanks. He had been bullish on Apple but now I think it's time to throw him into "The Dragon's Den".
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 17, 2015 14:09:57 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Feb 17, 2015 15:00:47 GMT -8
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Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on Feb 17, 2015 15:12:25 GMT -8
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Post by ericinaustin on Feb 17, 2015 15:18:00 GMT -8
Watching the Reuters news feed as Soros and Tepper's Appoloosa cut their AAPL stake to zero and Omega Adviors sold off a substantial amount before the end of 2014. Hedge Fund ownership is only 2.91% of the float. Wonder if they have been buying again? Nice to see my fellow Canadian and clown O'Leary selling Apple into strength. Talk about a guy who thinks he's a rock star. Was in the office awhile back flogging his crap. No thanks. He had been bullish on Apple but now I think it's time to throw him into "The Dragon's Den". My question is what are they buying The tech. index has a avg. pe of 31 and apple is still in the teens. Bonds? oil? Im always looking for value but I cant find value with the growth prospects better than apples anywhere. Anyone disagree? Disney looks like a good investment for the next two to three years.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 17, 2015 15:41:18 GMT -8
Would have preferred a close over $128. I would have preferred a close over $228 or $328, but any new ATH day is a good day.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 17, 2015 17:27:16 GMT -8
Mace - what's the latest EW count?!? Just as an FYI - over at EWT there are some really great folks. You need to cut the wheat from the chaff just like anywhere else but there is one outstanding person who has been so right. He believes we're still in wave (iii) of [5] but things seem very unclear to most folks there - nothing seems to fit the waves perfectly - nothing seems to behave the way it should. So the next fib target would be $131.38, which is the 1.764x, and if the price goes past that, then the 2.0x at $138.84. That is probably where wave (iii) will end, before a significant wave (iv) starts. Another feels the target is $135 from here ... and he has also been spot on as well. It seems to me we are probably headed to the mid 130's before any reassessment is done. What say you Mace?
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 17, 2015 18:27:56 GMT -8
Just as an FYI - over at EWT there are some really great folks. You need to cut the wheat from the chaff just like anywhere else Oh, sure, hint hint. Like we don't know exactly whom you're talking about. Why not just say, "you're the chaff on AFB, guy from SoCal with the Steve Jobs avatar"? Words hurt.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 17, 2015 18:41:34 GMT -8
Just as an FYI - over at EWT there are some really great folks. You need to cut the wheat from the chaff just like anywhere else Oh, sure, hint hint. Like we don't know exactly whom you're talking about. Why not just say, "you're the chaff on AFB, guy from SoCal with the Steve Jobs avatar"? Words hurt. You're so funny... do you remember that young kid or whatever he was who had to be castigated several times named "Unique" ? What a nut!
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Post by chasmac on Feb 17, 2015 19:04:33 GMT -8
Oh, sure, hint hint. Like we don't know exactly whom you're talking about. Why not just say, "you're the chaff on AFB, guy from SoCal with the Steve Jobs avatar"? Words hurt. You're so funny... do you remember that young kid or whatever he was who had to be castigated several times named "Unique" ? What a nut! Actually, he was a very nice guy and one hell of a trader. His story would've made a great book.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 17, 2015 19:05:15 GMT -8
Oh, sure, hint hint. Like we don't know exactly whom you're talking about. Why not just say, "you're the chaff on AFB, guy from SoCal with the Steve Jobs avatar"? Words hurt. You're so funny... do you remember that young kid or whatever he was who had to be castigated several times named "Unique" ? What a nut! Ricky IIRC. "HAHAHAHA LOLOLOL suckers I made a killing on AAPL's drop today LULz NOOBz!" I wanted to punch him until I realized he's a 4-11 100 lbs Asian kid.
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Post by phoebear611 on Feb 17, 2015 19:15:24 GMT -8
Wait - were Unique and Ricky the same person? Because maybe it was Ricky I was thinking of? Arrogant young kid who thought he was God's gift to trading and I would hope no one was gullible enough to believe all his moves in - most of which he would speak about in retrospect ... I would have liked to see evidence of his successful trades timestamped. Hey we're all entitled to our opinions ... I just don't see the need to act like an A-hole and pat yourself on the back every five minutes....again that's just me.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2015 19:39:17 GMT -8
Wait - were Unique and Ricky the same person? Because maybe it was Ricky I was thinking of? Arrogant young kid who thought he was God's gift to trading and I would hope no one was gullible enough to believe all his moves in - most of which he would speak about in retrospect ... I would have liked to see evidence of his successful trades timestamped. Hey we're all entitled to our opinions ... I just don't see the need to act like an A-hole and pat yourself on the back every five minutes....again that's just me. Unique and Ricky were the same person. He was so good, I heard he lost it all. I doubt he learned any lesson from it, least of all humility.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,556
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Post by mark on Feb 17, 2015 20:23:55 GMT -8
Conflict-free minerals. Conflict-free diamonds. Conflict-free manufacturing. How come nobody ever talks about conflict-free oil?
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Post by osx10 on Feb 17, 2015 20:50:27 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 17, 2015 21:49:51 GMT -8
There are benefits to age-related mental decline. I can re-watch old shows like they're new (currently: Spartacus). And I forget who I've argued with here, so it's hard for me to hold a grudge.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 17, 2015 22:24:25 GMT -8
Rumor has it that he went to work for Radio Shack. Oh, wait...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 17, 2015 23:16:00 GMT -8
4-11 100, 8' 500, Martian, whatever.
I will say this. Though I VEHEMENTLY disagree with Fearless Leader's assessment, it should be noted that iPad...how to put it...did not share our (EDIT: well, the AFB2 general consensus's) disapproval of the guy that even Bob the AFB1 mod was moved to ban.
And if you remember, it took a LOT to make Bob kick you out of AFB1. Just something to keep in mind, in case iPad actually stops by to read this particular thread at this particular time (super-unlikely, yes I know)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 17, 2015 23:24:12 GMT -8
Not like anyone cares, but from a chart standpoint I wouldn't mind (selfishly, of course) if AAPL took a break right around now. Overall, a strong move from 105, and chance of volatility could be lower if AAPL settled down for a while.
Of course, there's also that chance that AAPL just plain won't look back (and not plateau or correct until the 130s or higher) even though upside momentum is weakening in the short term. Who knows. That IS why I'm also a buy-and-holder for the long haul.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 17, 2015 23:34:28 GMT -8
4-11 100, 8' 500, Martian, whatever. I will say this. Though I VEHEMENTLY disagree with Fearless Leader's assessment, it should be noted that iPad...how to put it...did not share our (EDIT: well, the AFB2 general consensus's) disapproval of the guy that even Bob the AFB1 mod was moved to ban. And if you remember, it took a LOT to make Bob kick you out of AFB1. Just something to keep in mind, in case iPad actually stops by to read this particular thread at this particular time (super-unlikely, yes I know) Well "Bob" wanted to ban me from AFB 1. So there's one grudge I'll always remember. Ricky was/is a trading buddy of iPad's on Skype, so she had some divided loyalty there. Frankly, I think that's why she left here, too close too people here and just too nice to be the banhammerer (I think I just coined a word). But I don't think anyone here would disagree that laughing that other AFB members have lost money being long AAPL is funny or something to taunt about.
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