Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Mar 25, 2015 2:36:15 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. AAPL is GREEN, trading at 127.14 +0.45 (0.36%) as of 6:14AM. No premarket on US indices yet, but the European markets are broadly lower though the FTSE is slightly green. Not much in the news again this morning. Apparently the media doesn't adjust with daylight savings time. Unfortunately, I'm up early every day. Too many years of it... For those of you who missed it, Chinacat posted some interesting graphs last night, Apple is crushing its competitors in these financial metrics. Take the time to absorb these. For those who want to get enraged, Fake Apple Store employees diss Apple, promote Microsoft products. No words. Have a great day. Let's make money.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Mar 25, 2015 3:24:22 GMT -8
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Mar 25, 2015 3:25:23 GMT -8
AAPL is still green while US premarket is mixed and close to even.
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Post by rickag on Mar 25, 2015 3:49:58 GMT -8
LOL - They massively outspend Apple on R&D so I guess a slew of crap gets slung into the fan to see what sticks to the wall.
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Post by flyonthewall on Mar 25, 2015 4:01:15 GMT -8
AAPL just dropped to 124 USD on German Borse. Any news?
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Mar 25, 2015 4:03:33 GMT -8
I'm not seeing any news...
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Post by macwire on Mar 25, 2015 5:50:08 GMT -8
10 day break.
Has traded pretty poorly since going into the dow...
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Post by artman1033 on Mar 25, 2015 6:04:38 GMT -8
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Mar 25, 2015 6:53:44 GMT -8
omg & lol! They're really putting a dent in the universe with this...
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Mar 25, 2015 7:03:36 GMT -8
omg & lol! They're really putting a dent in the universe with this... They're just doing this to create all sorts of popular YouTube videos of people actually attempting this. [if anything, they'll probably just cause dents in people asses with this one]
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Mar 25, 2015 7:28:28 GMT -8
The month of April 2015 is going to be one of the biggest in Apple's history.
1) A tremendous earnings report, again demonstrating a YOY revenue and earnings number that will surprise to the upside. If we get 60 million Iphones (not impossible), then we could see the second best revenue quarter in history. Earnings will also grow dramatically due both to underlying fundamentals and the impact of the share buyback on EPS.
2) While Tim and the team will be coy in the earnings call about outlook, we will have been in Apple Watch Frenzy (tm) Day ten or eleven by then....and it can't be ignored. The Watch sales mean Iphone sales too...
3) The beautiful Macs will have lots of people (like Phoebs) wandering over from the Watch displays to try them out. There will be sales....
4) Ipads....meh....but a good meh...
5) Cash Return Program will be revised and announced. A 15% increase in the divided (or even 8%) keeps that end of the program on track, and reinforces the "increase every year" mantra that will become increasingly important to value investors and dividend chasers.
6) The buyback will be retooled and extended. Certainly not as large as the earlier program but still many billions more over the next three years, giving future EPS a tweek.
And through all of this, with the huge revenues coming in, the free cash on hand continues to grow despite the cash return programs. At current prices we will soon trade at 11x trailing twelve month earnings (minus cash) and probably 16 x plain old trailing P/E.
So why exactly are we selling in the 125's?
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Post by Volvocoupe on Mar 25, 2015 7:37:51 GMT -8
The month of April 2015 is going to be one of the biggest in Apple's history. 1) A tremendous earnings report, again demonstrating a YOY revenue and earnings number that will surprise to the upside. If we get 60 million Iphones (not impossible), then we could see the second best revenue quarter in history. Earnings will also grow dramatically due both to underlying fundamentals and the impact of the share buyback on EPS. 2) While Tim and the team will be coy in the earnings call about outlook, we will have been in Apple Watch Frenzy (tm) Day ten or eleven by then....and it can't be ignored. The Watch sales mean Iphone sales too... 3) The beautiful Macs will have lots of people (like Phoebs) wandering over from the Watch displays to try them out. There will be sales.... 4) Ipads....meh....but a good meh... 5) Cash Return Program will be revised and announced. A 15% increase in the divided (or even 8%) keeps that end of the program on track, and reinforces the "increase every year" mantra that will become increasingly important to value investors and dividend chasers. 6) The buyback will be retooled and extended. Certainly not as large as the earlier program but still many billions more over the next three years, giving future EPS a tweek. And through all of this, with the huge revenues coming in, the free cash on hand continues to grow despite the cash return programs. At current prices we will soon trade at 11x trailing twelve month earnings (minus cash) and probably 16 x plain old trailing P/E. So why exactly are we selling in the 125's? Very well said Red.
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Post by macwire on Mar 25, 2015 7:49:13 GMT -8
There is an alt abcd count that says AAPL did not reclaim the .618 fib from our ATH decline and the potential reversal zone for that fib extension is around 118.
FWIW.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Mar 25, 2015 8:40:22 GMT -8
So why exactly are we selling in the 125's? [/quote]
That faint beep, beep, beep you hear is the sound of the truck backing in for its at least once a quarter insane AAPL sale. My first load is ordered at $124.22.
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on Mar 25, 2015 8:54:24 GMT -8
Here's hoping the 2:14 is a bit more reliable than it has been of late... It would be nice to have this turn into a positive day.
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Post by rickag on Mar 25, 2015 9:12:17 GMT -8
That faint beep, beep, beep you hear is the sound of the truck backing in for its at least once a quarter insane AAPL sale. My first load is ordered at $124.22. Just wondering why you picked $124.22?
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Post by rickag on Mar 25, 2015 9:28:34 GMT -8
There is an alt abcd count that says AAPL did not reclaim the .618 fib from our ATH decline and the potential reversal zone for that fib extension is around 118. FWIW. I by no means understand fib levels, but from the low of ~ 106 on Jan 16th to the ATH @ ~ $133 on Feb 23rd wouldn't a 50% retrace be around $119. I apologize for my ignorance in advance.
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Post by macwire on Mar 25, 2015 9:32:23 GMT -8
There is an alt abcd count that says AAPL did not reclaim the .618 fib from our ATH decline and the potential reversal zone for that fib extension is around 118. FWIW. I by no means understand fib levels, but from the low of ~ 106 on Jan 16th to the ATH @ ~ $133 on Feb 23rd wouldn't a 50% retrace be around $119. I apologize for my ignorance in advance. I'm using a smaller time frame. Marking the ATH decline to where price found support at around 121.50. AB leg decline. BC leg bounce (contained 129.25 roughly or 61 percent of the original decline) which gives us a CD extension to 118. Not predicting. Just throwing it out there as a possibility.
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Post by rickag on Mar 25, 2015 9:40:01 GMT -8
macwire
Thank you for the explanation.
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Post by firestorm on Mar 25, 2015 11:08:21 GMT -8
According to yesterday's The Mac Observer website, "Apple seems to be the darling of Wall Street ..."
You could have fooled me.
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Post by macwire on Mar 25, 2015 11:42:53 GMT -8
macwire Thank you for the explanation. It could be we don't see the 140 liftoff till post earnings. Similar to our last set up. Trying to keep an open mind if we pull back to sub 120 with market seemingly wanted to retest prior levels.
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Post by pauls on Mar 25, 2015 11:48:42 GMT -8
Added shares for the first time in a long time. I'll add more if the market continues down.
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Post by moltenfire on Mar 25, 2015 12:09:36 GMT -8
BTFD in the last minute of trading at $123.40.
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Post by nathanstevens on Mar 25, 2015 12:51:49 GMT -8
50 day EMA, SMA and 38.2 Fib all in the 122's
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Post by incorrigible on Mar 25, 2015 13:22:41 GMT -8
Waiting for $119 to repurchase my $130 sale.
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Mav
Member
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Post by Mav on Mar 25, 2015 14:16:01 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,183
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 25, 2015 16:31:23 GMT -8
According to yesterday's The Mac Observer website, "Apple seems to be the darling of Wall Street ..." You could have fooled me. Maybe if Apple were Rhianna and Wall Street were Chris Brown, we'd be their darling. This $#!t is making me weary. I mean, OK, Goldman called the reason for weakness as this being blackout season. But if the only thing holding AAPL up is Apple buying it, that's not good. Best company in the world FFS! Makes me wanna holla. BTFD (unless you are Apple, Inc.)
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Post by tuffett on Mar 25, 2015 17:02:09 GMT -8
The whole market puked. This is nothing new - a period of consolidation before the next run up.
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Post by bryanyc on Mar 25, 2015 19:25:34 GMT -8
Unless this is the beginning of the first real correction in 6 years.
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Mar 25, 2015 20:18:41 GMT -8
That faint beep, beep, beep you hear is the sound of the truck backing in for its at least once a quarter insane AAPL sale. My first load is ordered at $124.22. Just wondering why you picked $124.22? WAG, and from the perspective of a lower close, not the best WAG. But thanks to input from Red and others on this Board, I now stagger my buys and promise myself to have at least something to throw in the ring when AAPL drops to irrational, idiotic levels... Like $105 just before last earnings. Fortunately, I had a lot of ammo for that sale and rode it to the mid $120s. Lost out on some profits from there to $133, but that's in the rear view mirror now... For me at this juncture, today was the first of three major buys and the crazy low sale is about $111. Do I think we will go there before earnings? No. Would it surprise me? No. Will I be ready? Yes.
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