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Post by mace on Apr 2, 2015 12:56:42 GMT -8
One comment about yesterday's discussion (that I hope is now ended). With only a few exceptions, most of the board were able to state their thoughts about the Indiana law and Tim Cook's condemnation of it without resorting to name calling those who had opposing views, like 12-year-olds on a playground. This is real progress. Cheers to them and to the longs. Have not put in my last word... Nature is about fittest survive... Life is about pro-creation... enough said.
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Post by mace on Apr 2, 2015 12:59:36 GMT -8
Gee, what a total coincidence, AAPL looking to close $125ish expiring 95% of all calls. These fucking weeklies are speed bumps on a race track. Buying them is like putting square wheels on a Ferrari. The history of this is clear. Hey, if you don't want to change the world, at least change yourself
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Post by mace on Apr 2, 2015 13:02:48 GMT -8
Any explanation of that sudden bump at the close? Assuming the EO's just sell options, didn't that work against them? I wonder if I will EVER understand this You have large quantities of people making individual investment decisions based upon their own criteria and point of view. A massive hugely complicated voting machine. People like to assign reasons to things that don't have a simple explanation. Anyone that claims to understand is delusional in my opinion. I'm too dumb to understand anything except it appears to follow nagrani's possible triangle. Only issue is not sure how to count ABCDE.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2015 13:38:25 GMT -8
Gee, what a total coincidence, AAPL looking to close $125ish expiring 95% of all calls. These fucking weeklies are speed bumps on a race track. Buying them is like putting square wheels on a Ferrari. The history of this is clear. Hey, if you don't want to change the world, at least change yourself For one who draws the squiggly lines attempting to look for patterns, that's a bullshit comment. I've given you the best one and yes, YOU have the ability to either be a part of the problem or part of the solution. While you lose money hand over fist playing the weekly lotto, I'll just wait for a catalyst (earnings, buyback, dividends, watch) and very likely sell everything before you turn back on the tractor beam. Signing off...
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Post by nagrani on Apr 2, 2015 14:16:57 GMT -8
The point of the board is for us to make money. Options are the tail wagging the dog. Name another stock that has this kind of open interest and a low P/E, despite Apple's stellar fundamentals. Weekly call options are expiring WORTHLESS. One doesn't have to understand all the mechanics of WHY; AAPL is struggling here and that's the WHAT. Is it coincidence that 90-95% of the call options, absent a catalyst, are being decimated? I think not. Those playing the weeklies: Do us a solid and play the lotto or ponies. No joke - I made 15k playing weeklies today. Rather than get sour about weeklies - learn the game and profit.
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Post by nagrani on Apr 2, 2015 14:23:07 GMT -8
Here is the big ass symmetrical triangle that I see. With the following catalysts - I see us popping to the upside: April is bullish for apple Apple is in the lower segment of the short term trading range The days/weeks leading up to prior new products were strong from a share increase % (iphone, iPad) Chinese action for their new year should give us a solid quarter Apple is opening up checkbook for share buybacks and divvy increase later this month Apple is trading at a fwd PE discount to S&P Watch sales will be included in guidance for next quarter and that will help YoY increases. Positive sentiment for wwdc with Apple TV sdk Who would want to miss this party??? Attachments:
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,183
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 2, 2015 14:32:12 GMT -8
No joke - I made 15k playing weeklies today. Rather than get sour about weeklies - learn the game and profit. Are you still selling calls?
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Post by nagrani on Apr 2, 2015 14:33:41 GMT -8
Yes. Weekly income.
Also purchased 125 weekly calls that expire next fri. Was a trade in/out
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Apr 2, 2015 14:51:01 GMT -8
Watch sales will be included in guidance for next quarter and that will help YoY increases. I share your enthusiasm, and this item should be very interesting. My instinct is that they will sandbag the Apple Watch revenue contribution in guidance, especially since it will not be broken out separately when reported (although I am sure that the Mavs of the world will attempt to tease it out of whatever data is provided). So this could also be a setup for an extra, unseen boost to revenues for 3Q15. That is, of course, unless those predicting failure are correct; I'm not counting it. It will be fascinating just to see how they talk about and around Apple Watch revenues in that conference call.
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Post by Luckychoices on Apr 2, 2015 15:08:57 GMT -8
One comment about yesterday's discussion (that I hope is now ended). With only a few exceptions, most of the board were able to state their thoughts about the Indiana law and Tim Cook's condemnation of it without resorting to name calling those who had opposing views, like 12-year-olds on a playground. This is real progress. Cheers to them and to the longs. Have not put in my last word... Nature is about fittest survive... Life is about pro-creation... enough said. That's a great point, mace. I can't tell you how many times I've made the mistake of venturing onto the Hwy 85, 101 or 280 during rush hour (which now starts at 2:30 PM, BTW) and, while moving forward at 5 MPH, thought to myself, "The San Francisco Bay Area is such a great place to live. Great weather, schools (Stanford, UC Berkeley, Santa Clara University, SJSU), cultural institutions, etc. If only we had more people."
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Post by tuffett on Apr 2, 2015 16:04:30 GMT -8
The point of the board is for us to make money. Options are the tail wagging the dog. Name another stock that has this kind of open interest and a low P/E, despite Apple's stellar fundamentals. Weekly call options are expiring WORTHLESS. One doesn't have to understand all the mechanics of WHY; AAPL is struggling here and that's the WHAT. Is it coincidence that 90-95% of the call options, absent a catalyst, are being decimated? I think not. Those playing the weeklies: Do us a solid and play the lotto or ponies. I make money on weeklies, thank you very much. Please don't tell me what I can and can't make money on. I'm certainly not going to stop trading weeklies for your benefit, no offense...
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Post by infohunter on Apr 2, 2015 16:06:05 GMT -8
Just saw my first Apple Watch commercial on CBS Big Bang Theory..
GAME ON!!
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Post by appleaddict on Apr 2, 2015 17:41:24 GMT -8
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Post by rezonate on Apr 2, 2015 18:15:15 GMT -8
Have not put in my last word... Nature is about fittest survive... Life is about pro-creation... enough said. Nature is the truest form of reality. Reality always wins. You may wish for climate change, but nature will eat your wishes for lunch. Life is about fighting the second law of thermodynamics. For as long as possible.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
Member is Online
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Post by mark on Apr 2, 2015 18:43:01 GMT -8
The point of the board is for us to make money. Options are the tail wagging the dog. Name another stock that has this kind of open interest and a low P/E, despite Apple's stellar fundamentals. Weekly call options are expiring WORTHLESS. One doesn't have to understand all the mechanics of WHY; AAPL is struggling here and that's the WHAT. Is it coincidence that 90-95% of the call options, absent a catalyst, are being decimated? I think not. Those playing the weeklies: Do us a solid and play the lotto or ponies. Except that all options are eventually weeklies. Right. But if not for the newfangled weeklies, there would only be weeklies once a month rather than EVERY week.
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Apr 2, 2015 19:12:12 GMT -8
Oh by the way - one other thing - our brethren in Europe also keep their markets shut on Easter Monday. Why? Because they can, of course! Only the U.S. Will be open. Just FYI. I suppose the US chose to close markets on Good Friday instead of on Monday. Isn't Easter generally on Sunday??? European markets are closed on Good Friday as well as Easter Monday for a four-day weekend. Easter is on a Sunday. I figure it's like offices that don't open for American Thanksgiving/Black Friday. No work gets done on the day after breaking the Lenten fast, so why go through the motions of having workers come into the office when you know they'll have zero productivity?
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on Apr 2, 2015 19:30:33 GMT -8
Any explanation of that sudden bump at the close? Assuming the EO's just sell options, didn't that work against them? I wonder if I will EVER understand this I assume most major market makers had already closed their positions by this time and headed home for the three-day weekend, thus letting the dog wag the tail, to continue Mercel's metaphor.
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