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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 13, 2015 10:54:03 GMT -8
I share the frustration, but we really have to put things in perspective. It is not the FUD-meisters who are to blame. It is the huge number of unsophisticated investors who are so sloppy in their research that they believe every headline. Whether it is a sophisticated negative PR campaign from Samsung, or a bunch of click whores banging on the FUD drums, the real responsibility lies with the person reading and reacting.... I don't think the institutional investors are all that sophisticated either. It's all just a herd mentality.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 13, 2015 11:02:45 GMT -8
WS needs numbers. And if they don't get them there's a chance AAPL gets pressured.
Could well be earnings is the next inflection point. AGAIN. Analysts will surely ask about Watch initial weekend sales by then if Apple says nothing.
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 13, 2015 11:04:25 GMT -8
So Josh at CNBC tweeted: @cnbcjosh: Just spoke to Piper's Munster: says @sliceintel way too optimistic about $AAPL Watch orders; estimates 350,000 U.S. pre-orders on Friday So called him on it: @huskerbjr: .@cnbcjosh @sliceintel Please compare and contrast the methodology used by each. Thanks. Slice replied: @sliceintel: @huskerbjr @cnbcjosh Our methodology is based on analyzing ereceipts from 2 million US online shoppers. it is the largest panel of its kind. Nothing further from Josh or Gene The Slice methodology has been talked about on CNBC all day - it's not new news. However, it's not official from the Company and that's my gripe but so be it.
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Post by tuffett on Apr 13, 2015 11:07:31 GMT -8
To be frank, with a huge buyback update coming and Tim's comment about being interested in long term shareholders, it is in the best interest of the company and its shareholders for AAPL not to rocket up at this point. Let's wait for a few hundred million more shares to be bought back. The earnjngs numbers will speak for themselves. I actually like it when the stock jumps on confirmed data points rather than speculation. The wait is sometimes exhausting but always worth it.
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Post by redinaustin on Apr 13, 2015 11:27:56 GMT -8
So Josh at CNBC tweeted: @cnbcjosh: Just spoke to Piper's Munster: says @sliceintel way too optimistic about $AAPL Watch orders; estimates 350,000 U.S. pre-orders on Friday So called him on it: @huskerbjr: .@cnbcjosh @sliceintel Please compare and contrast the methodology used by each. Thanks. Slice replied: @sliceintel: @huskerbjr @cnbcjosh Our methodology is based on analyzing ereceipts from 2 million US online shoppers. it is the largest panel of its kind. Nothing further from Josh or Gene The Slice methodology has been talked about on CNBC all day - it's not new news. However, it's not official from the Company and that's my gripe but so be it. Ya, but what's Gene's. Standing in front of an Apple Store counting. Peeps going in for appointments. I was really going after Josh for doing his normal half ass job.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 13, 2015 12:04:35 GMT -8
Two more weeks to go.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Apr 13, 2015 12:29:43 GMT -8
The way this "less than 1 million" number is being tossed around is nothing short of FACT - end of story. It doesn't matter that it is not "fact" and that the Company has not commented or said one word - it is now "fact". One lesson that TC perhaps hasn't learned (or maybe he doesn't care) is that perception becomes reality...at least for a while it does and then you need to dig yourself out a bit. I share your frustration about the efficacy with which FUD can be spread, but whatever Apple does will be spun as a negative by those with that motive. Tim has responded quickly and forcefully in some cases. But in others, such as this one, the company believes that there is some advantage to the path they have chosen, to the extent that they announced their intention on the last earnings call. It certainly can be a drag for those in short term positions, but one could assume that the savvy among them have that factored in by now. Long term, I know that you share my confidence that the ship is being well steered.
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 13, 2015 12:40:46 GMT -8
No one questions the Captain of this ship but you would have to admit the FUD just gets under one's skin at times...even if you KNOW it's coming...and we do know it's ALWAYS coming. Death, taxes, and FUD...a given. Again, just wish it could be managed somewhat better ... there must be a better way. Not sure I know what that way is but I'm certain there is one. Look - they get paid a ton of money and have people with large brains - and they hired people that were suppose to have the same - they should be able to outsmart everyone.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Apr 13, 2015 12:57:09 GMT -8
No one questions the Captain of this ship but you would have to admit the FUD just gets under one's skin at times...even if you KNOW it's coming...and we do know it's ALWAYS coming. Death, taxes, and FUD...a given. Again, just wish it could be managed somewhat better ... there must be a better way. Not sure I know what that way is but I'm certain there is one. Look - they get paid a ton of money and have people with large brains - and they hired people that were suppose to have the same - they should be able to outsmart everyone. Well, I guess I just gotta ask "better" in what way? I think we saw that Tim's emotional response may well be the same as yours when he was questioned at the stockholders meeting about green investments. But other than possible short term effects on the stock price and lowering the blood pressure in Apple fans like us, what do you want to be accomplished?
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 13, 2015 13:00:58 GMT -8
Question for the group - how can i order more than 2 watches? Do I just do it on 2 different days or won't it let me keep doing that? Anyone know?
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 13, 2015 13:06:11 GMT -8
Two different apple IDs maybe?
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coma
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Post by coma on Apr 13, 2015 14:02:55 GMT -8
Wear a mustache . . .
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 13, 2015 14:04:42 GMT -8
Two different apple IDs maybe? Two Apple IDs, each with a different credit card attached.
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Post by macwire on Apr 13, 2015 14:05:48 GMT -8
Off topic. Anyone rocking a retina iMac? Any one notice any graphic lag?
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Post by tuffett on Apr 13, 2015 14:20:47 GMT -8
Played with an Apple Watch today. Really smooth and didn't notice any lag (but I didn't try any 3rd party apps). Digital crown works great and doesn't take long to get used to - it just makes sense for that screen size and where it's located. They are so much nicer and sleeker in person - glad I went with the 42mm. Link bracelet looks fantastic but I'll wait a year or two to splurge for it. Sport will do for now.
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Post by rezonate on Apr 13, 2015 15:21:43 GMT -8
Played with an Apple Watch today. Really smooth and didn't notice any lag (but I didn't try any 3rd party apps). Digital crown works great and doesn't take long to get used to - it just makes sense for that screen size and where it's located. They are so much nicer and sleeker in person - glad I went with the 42mm. Link bracelet looks fantastic but I'll wait a year or two to splurge for it. Sport will do for now. Tuffett, this is a great, pithy review. Could you cross-post it to the Apple Watch - Reviews thread? Anyone else care to chime in over there?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 13, 2015 15:31:11 GMT -8
Phoebear, official store policy is SUPPOSED to be two per customer. Though if you have another Apple [ID] for anyone else in your family, get them to order the extra 2 to be safe?
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 13, 2015 15:58:09 GMT -8
Phoebear, official store policy is SUPPOSED to be two per customer. Though if you have another Apple for anyone else in your family, get them to order the extra 2 to be safe? I'm completely confused - I ordered one over the weekend. Now I ordered two more. All went through under the same ID. I need to order 2 more. I guess I just order them on different days because somehow they are going through on different days. I'll wait till tomorrow. Still getting a June date ... which continues to suck. Or do I worry that they are letting me order more because they didn't sell enough. I'm so damn paranoid now.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 13, 2015 16:39:56 GMT -8
I don't think you have to worry about that last part, though we may need until late July for any clues.
To me, there's a chance your other orders might be cancelled, since it's 2 per customer. But if Mr. Phoebear or any other family members want to step up with their own Apple IDs, that should be fine for 2 more per person.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 13, 2015 20:00:11 GMT -8
Some more observations on the Watch:
The leather band on the classic buckle is thicker --appealingly so-- than the modern buckle, which strikes me as feminine. I like the sport band's contrast where it fits into the stainless case -- I canceled the milanese loop and will pick up a polymer band to go with the leather one. Apple Watch inside the wood display case is FAR more striking under artificial lighting than when I first saw them under a massive skylight washing out some of the design. It's looking better every time I see it. Apple staffer tonight said many are coming in to check out the sport watch and end up with the stainless. Add a ban or two and the ASPs = Kaching. My store has the Gold Edition. Very nice but not $10k nice. I didn't notice any lag while I navigated the apps nor reconfigured the watch faces. Really, it's almost unlimited what Apple (or third parties) can do to put art on the wrist.
Apple has a big hit on its hands. I'm very confident about Apple, Inc.. Once again, the price of AAPL is a lagging indicator.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Apr 13, 2015 20:15:53 GMT -8
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Post by 2centsplus on Apr 13, 2015 20:16:09 GMT -8
So just a little thinking out loud..
Who are Apple’s competitors right now? Samsung? Google? Amazon? Facebook? Microsoft? IBM? The ones I even remotely worry about are Facebook or Google or Microsoft and I don’t even know why I do that.
We have an iPhone in all sizes (finally), a China market (possible mixed blessing), but most importantly to me Apple Pay, Apple Watch, and the iPad. Who else has these things in a form that isn’t visibly mocked?
So the real question for me is the PE. Now it is 17ish backward and 13ish forward. And probably some pretty good earnings coming up. But let’s look out 10 years. Can Apple grow at 15+% per year for 10 years, becoming by far the world’s largest company that’s ever been (unless surpassed by another).
A few pros and cons I can think of:
Cons: Xiaomi and India phones will get cheaper, better, sub-$100 or maybe sub-$50 for excellent devices running some version of Android that will only improve or something else new and funky.
Pros: All those patents Apple files. They will just keep improving the phone/device that is your most import possession and that you will always be willing to pay $600+ for. You will pay that because with your phone you get Apple Pay and Watch and iTunes and Apple TV and maybe medical technology and many other things.
Another Con: the history of technology for the last 100 years is that someone comes out of left field with something that just blows away the current reigning champion.
Another Pro: the current Apple administration appears to adhere to the Henry Ford philosophy that you ignore your blithering opponents and focus on making the best product you possibly can, which has proven fairly successful in the history of technology for the last 100 years.
So who knows, but cheers to the longs..
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Post by 2centsplus on Apr 13, 2015 20:23:26 GMT -8
Another pro: they have a lot of cash. This helps them meet any threat or invest in any great opportunity - or if neither of these are good, they can always buy back shares which keeps their PE afloat (see IBM). It also means that their PE is really lower than stated above because you have to subtract that cash. And it does look like that at some point their foreign cash will get repatriated at a reasonable rate.
Another thing in their favor: historically they seem to have been quite honest in their accounting.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Apr 13, 2015 23:05:06 GMT -8
Con on price wars - no one can live on no profits. Apple can only keep pricing power as long as it is obsessed with singular smartphone/iOS devices. But it's inherent business risk more than weakness.
Con on THE NEXT BIG THING - Apple has been responsible for ALL of them so far. Mac, iPod, iPhone, iPad. Apple's advantage is they obsess over the craziest things and have unlimited resources to go with a startup mentality. They have massive expertise in capacitive touch, memory, chip making, and materials. As long as they stay paranoid and experimental, they can continue to be thought leaders.
Complacency is the real canary in the coal mine, and Apple has none I can see where it matters. They don't play in markets that can't have multiple winners, which is also its own form of protection.
Making products people love and Apple employees want to use themselves is a good way to avoid being blindsided. Quantum leaps may be massively disruptive but Apple espouses universal product virtues that also inform their designs. You have to have a killer technology that anyone can pick up that's practical, affordable, and fun to take on Apple. You don't build that expertise right away.
Apple is not invincible but that doesn't mean their inevitable doom was already foretold. Their high-performance company strategy demands excellence. Luckily the company is built for that.
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Post by rezonate on Apr 14, 2015 0:13:38 GMT -8
Phablets, we hardly knew ye. Wait, what? Top seller? m.fool.com/investing/general/2015/04/13/2-top-stocks-to-invest-in-phablets-samsung-group-aThis is another major driver for Apple Watch. People with small iPhones write about not understanding the problem with checking time on the phone. Phablet users know the problem well. A small control surface lets you keep that brick in your bag or pocket. Today iPhone is required. The goal is to push everyone to iCloud by tying more and more to your Apple ID. Notifications are routed through there. Health data is collected there. Listening trends are parsed there. TV patterns are too. Apple watch is happy if on the same wifi network as its parent device. What if the parent was your iCloud account? Any device registered to family share your Apple ID becomes a conduit to Apple Watch. Continuity unbound. Your iCloud account is a "device". This was Steve's vision when he announced iPad, breaking the digital hub. Apple has become the hub.
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Post by Lstream on Apr 14, 2015 0:57:29 GMT -8
The parent could be iCloud now if there was sufficient value in that approach. It just means that the radio link is provided by the phone instead of by the Watch. How the Watch communicates to the Cloud makes no real difference in the functionality that can be delivered. With that said, I think iCloud has more holes than Swiss Cheese. It is not even very good at what it does now.
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