Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 15, 2012 9:29:01 GMT -8
Better day than GOOG though, huh?
Context is important.
I didn't say the action was great or even good. Still monitoring. Plan to be out of the newest AAPL trade by Thursday.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 15, 2012 9:30:36 GMT -8
Point of reference - 623ish area. We'll see where AAPL ends up tomorrow.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 15, 2012 9:31:14 GMT -8
Since we are in paint drying mode, I wonder if they keep us here all week? (630) it would inflict a lot of pain on both sides, more on the call side, but gives WS a chance to mess with the VXAPL and wipe out a lot of people. Everything above 650 has no chance this week IMO. I keep looking at the weekly chart and AAPL does not do 3 straight red candles often, let alone 4. I think we stay in the 630's all week. Fingers crossed that the recent lows hold.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 15, 2012 9:44:46 GMT -8
It'd at least be constructive as a kind of basing/consolidation. Of course, continuing to hold the 100-day and/or 620s (if the 100-day moves over AAPL's price) is key to that theory.
As far as VXAPL, the mid/high 30s and higher are always caution signals for put and call holders. I don't expect AAPL IV to dip under 30% or whatever until after earnings, though.
That reminds me...earnings are only 10 days away.
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jz
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"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
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Post by jz on Oct 15, 2012 9:57:40 GMT -8
I made a post about this very idea last week. It would also be great if the iPad Mini could combine two tools into one, like the iPhone combined a phone and a music player. Right now, as I see it, digital ink is easier for reading books, especially outdoors, but backlit has its advantages for other use cases. If Apple can come up with a proprietary technology for killing these two birds with one stone, then once again we are really off to the races. Seek first to understand.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 15, 2012 10:02:21 GMT -8
Mav LOL, just looked at the VXAPL, up a point. Go figure? After earnings is going to be a bloodbath for call IV and that VIX is going to crater. The longer we stay in this area it is at least building support, that is unless we break under and it become resistance, that would truly suck. Going with your "plan A", I like it better. lol
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 15, 2012 10:07:36 GMT -8
Well, it's not resistance until AAPL retests and gets rejected.
635 is light-to-moderate resistance IMHO. I see only two "earnest" attempts to break through, today and last Friday. AAPL didn't really settle into the 620s-630s until last Thursday.
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Post by terps530 on Oct 15, 2012 10:11:06 GMT -8
im thinking of selling some put spreads for november, or Dec/Jan, right before earnings to capture some of that IV.
just looking for some safer plays with spreads in the 580-600 area. going to wait at least till end of the week to act, unless 620 breaks.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 15, 2012 10:12:45 GMT -8
That's the key. Safe r. Might be a good quarter for me to experiment with volatility strategies. As for 620, I'll go back to hedging with BPSes if AAPL breaks 620 and can't reclaim the mid-620s quickly. At that point you'll hear all kinds of noise about 600, even the 200-day MA (which is around 580 IIRC, gotta check the chart).
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Post by traitorjoe on Oct 15, 2012 10:24:08 GMT -8
Man, same pattern almost everyday lately Open up and push up $3 to $6 in first 30 minutes
Drift down and eventually go red in $1 to $4 range in 2nd hour
About this time of day - push Green a couple $'s
Go Red a few $'s with 1 hr left
Close about flat
Rinse and Repeat
You could make some $ day trading these ranges
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bud777
fire starter
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Post by bud777 on Oct 15, 2012 10:48:26 GMT -8
I have not seen comments here on this article: www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-charts-signal-trouble-ahead-2012-10-08I thought Elder was one of the most respected gurus of TA. His last article in April preceded the collapse of the stock so precisely one could argue that he was responsible for the end to the December-April rise. Now he is essentially saying that Apple is done, justifying it with TA and a superficial nod toward fundamentals. I didn't find anything about this article convincing, but given what happened in April, is anyone concerned that he will have the same effect again?
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 15, 2012 11:08:56 GMT -8
Bud, at least at the bottom of the article he informs readers that he is short AAPL. That article came out last Monday BTW. He was right, AAPL did not hold 644 and dropped more.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2012 11:15:58 GMT -8
I just want to remind everyone that we will see AT&T, Verizon & Sprint all report earnings, and iPhone activations, before apple reports after close on 25th.
In particular the Verizon number this Thursday should be interesting.
Verizon: October 18th AT&T: October 24th Sprint: October 25th
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Oct 15, 2012 11:28:21 GMT -8
2 Green days in a row? Wowsers
anyone recall what the RED streak was in a row back in the spring(april i think)? like 15 or something..?
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 15, 2012 11:30:35 GMT -8
AZ tweated about 10 minutes ago: "Apple could possibly be breaking out right now. Let's see if we can get some momentum here."
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 15, 2012 11:31:36 GMT -8
AZ tweated about 10 minutes ago: "Apple could possibly be breaking out right now. Let's see if we can get some momentum here." First rejection at 634.
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Post by tradermac on Oct 15, 2012 11:35:24 GMT -8
AZ tweated about 10 minutes ago: "Apple could possibly be breaking out right now. Let's see if we can get some momentum here." What is his twitter handle? Tried searching his name but no recent posts. TIA.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 15, 2012 11:41:25 GMT -8
AZ further tweats: "If Apple can push thorugh $636 today, the upside breakout target is $682. We can be at $680 by the end of the week with a breakout >$636."
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 15, 2012 11:41:53 GMT -8
AZ tweated about 10 minutes ago: "Apple could possibly be breaking out right now. Let's see if we can get some momentum here." What is his twitter handle? Tried searching his name but no recent posts. TIA. @bullishcross
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 15, 2012 11:42:13 GMT -8
I don't know what's happening. But I like it. Just getting up to speed with the market is good enough. The first test is the effect of the iPad mini media invite, which should be on the way by Wednesday or so.
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Post by rob_london on Oct 15, 2012 11:43:00 GMT -8
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 15, 2012 11:43:00 GMT -8
AZ tweated about 10 minutes ago: "Apple could possibly be breaking out right now. Let's see if we can get some momentum here." First rejection at 634. Second rejection at 634.
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Post by rosie on Oct 15, 2012 11:46:45 GMT -8
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Post by wheeles on Oct 15, 2012 11:46:47 GMT -8
We've been putting in a bottoming pattern on the 4H and 1H charts for almost a week now. Be good to see a breakout.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 15, 2012 11:49:16 GMT -8
All the longer duration charts (4h, 1h, 30m, 15m) are looking very good for an up-move; the 5 min is starting to flatten on MACD (but it's positive), and the 1 min is not too hot.
Does this mean we'll be fine by 4:00PM (11 minutes away)? ;D
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 15, 2012 11:53:43 GMT -8
Through 634. Let's see how far we can go.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 15, 2012 11:57:43 GMT -8
AZ further tweats: "If Apple can push thorugh $636 today, the upside breakout target is $682. We can be at $680 by the end of the week with a breakout >$636." At 635 with about 3 minutes to go. This is putting in one wonderful hammer.
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Post by ccs on Oct 15, 2012 12:01:34 GMT -8
Nice start to the week. More excitement to come.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 15, 2012 12:22:53 GMT -8
Strong close! Cautiously optimistic!
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Post by machouse on Oct 15, 2012 12:25:25 GMT -8
I just want to remind everyone that we will see AT&T, Verizon & Sprint all report earnings, and iPhone activations, before apple reports after close on 25th. In particular the Verizon number this Thursday should be interesting. Verizon: October 18th AT&T: October 24th Sprint: October 25th This will be the best indicator of overall iphone sales for Q4. US should be about 35% of total iphone sales(At least that is what I think). Anybody else have thoughts?? -Tom
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