|
Post by rob_london on Oct 15, 2012 13:03:41 GMT -8
Looking out for the Mac mini invitation at 12.00 pm EST tomorrow.
|
|
|
Post by rosie on Oct 15, 2012 13:14:09 GMT -8
me, too, Rob, and hoping there's an iMac included for all of us who are waiting for that refresh to occur. Stock better go back up as my iList increases daily. Right now it's the new Mac, the baby iPad, and an airport express. Figure I'll just order them all at the same time...
|
|
|
Post by terps530 on Oct 15, 2012 13:45:24 GMT -8
I just want to remind everyone that we will see AT&T, Verizon & Sprint all report earnings, and iPhone activations, before apple reports after close on 25th. In particular the Verizon number this Thursday should be interesting. Verizon: October 18th AT&T: October 24th Sprint: October 25th This will be the best indicator of overall iphone sales for Q4. US should be about 35% of total iphone sales(At least that is what I think). Anybody else have thoughts?? -Tom Just went through and pooled the numbers for the last 6 quarters. Maybe can project based on this data?
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 15, 2012 13:47:38 GMT -8
Not to be a downer, but the S&P pulled us kicking and screaming. As we have seen before, we need follow through tomorrow. That was almost a perfect hammer, "missed it by that much".
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 15, 2012 13:55:57 GMT -8
Strong close! Cautiously optimistic! I like this close! It's a great setup for that sentiment-based inflection point (iPad mini media event) which should be 2-3 days away. 635 is still resistance, but AAPL is knockin' on the door. Though if AAPL hits 640 in the meantime, I'm outta my trade with a smile.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 15, 2012 13:56:50 GMT -8
This will be the best indicator of overall iphone sales for Q4. US should be about 35% of total iphone sales(At least that is what I think). Anybody else have thoughts?? -Tom Just went through and pooled the numbers for the last 6 quarters. Maybe can project based on this data? I wouldn't bother US-to-world extrapolating. You'll do better with YOY growth.
|
|
|
Post by wheeles on Oct 15, 2012 14:01:07 GMT -8
AAPL just went above today's Camarilla long breakout level in AH.
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 15, 2012 14:14:37 GMT -8
Translation please?
AH is nice, but without a move of say 3-4 points that holds until end of AH, I'm not sure that it tells us much for Tuesday. To me the immediate term is about iPad mini invite reaction (when the invite is issued) anyway.
|
|
|
Post by wheeles on Oct 15, 2012 14:27:36 GMT -8
Translation please? AH is nice, but without a move of say 3-4 points that holds until end of AH, I'm not sure that it tells us much for Tuesday. To me the immediate term is about iPad mini invite reaction (when the invite is issued) anyway. It was merely an observation. I only started looking at Camarilla levels today after noting that Rupert listed them at the start of each day. Of course the iPad mini invitation is the primary long catalyst. You won't get a big AH move of 3-4 points unless someone on CNBC comes out and massively pumps AAPL, and I've not seen that in a while. What this move above that breakout level may mean, however, is a nice drift up throughout AH and then a gap up for the opening print tomorrow. We won't know for sure until tomorrow, though.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 15, 2012 14:51:02 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 15, 2012 15:25:22 GMT -8
ZERO media coverage....typical...ugh.
|
|
|
Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 15, 2012 15:27:06 GMT -8
Strong close! Cautiously optimistic! I like this close! It's a great setup for that sentiment-based inflection point (iPad mini media event) which should be 2-3 days away. 635 is still resistance, but AAPL is knockin' on the door. Though if AAPL hits 640 in the meantime, I'm outta my trade with a smile. AmericanBull must have liked today's hammer, and whatever Friday was, because we are now a "Confirmed Buy". Can it get any better than this?? (Mav)
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 15, 2012 15:37:38 GMT -8
I like this close! It's a great setup for that sentiment-based inflection point (iPad mini media event) which should be 2-3 days away. 635 is still resistance, but AAPL is knockin' on the door. Though if AAPL hits 640 in the meantime, I'm outta my trade with a smile. AmericanBull must have liked today's hammer, and whatever Friday was, because we are now a "Confirmed Buy". Can it get any better than this?? (Mav) The previous 2 candles had formed a bullish pattern, not sure how today played into the patterns. The only candles I look for are hammer's, usually at the top or bottom of a trend, very good at giving a reversal signal. I am just happy the market held its 50
|
|
|
Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 15, 2012 15:38:52 GMT -8
ZERO media coverage....typical...ugh. Zero question about it, if this was about Apple, it would get non-stop coverage on CNBC and everywhere else. Regardless, I think it's meaningless for AAPL or GOOG beyond maybe a little selling pressure in GOOG for the next day or so.
|
|
|
Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 15, 2012 15:40:48 GMT -8
Just went through and pooled the numbers for the last 6 quarters. Maybe can project based on this data? I wouldn't bother US-to-world extrapolating. You'll do better with YOY growth. I'm not so sure about that. The 5 will make the quarter skew more toward U.S. but this type of analysis should get us a pretty decent ballpark number...more so than YoY estimates, in my opinion.
|
|
|
Post by traitorjoe on Oct 15, 2012 15:48:23 GMT -8
You would think so - I went short mid day when reported that now the EU in addition to the FTC looking at suing Google for anti competitive practices. Stock rallied $6 to close after announced and I got killed- if same 3 pieces of News were Apple we would be down minimum $20 today and tomorrow
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Oct 15, 2012 15:52:08 GMT -8
(...)The only candles I look for are hammer's, usually at the top or bottom of a trend, very good at giving a reversal signal. (...) Time for Mav to break out the pic...
|
|
|
Post by joel90069 on Oct 15, 2012 15:52:57 GMT -8
ZERO media coverage....typical...ugh. I saw the story earlier on several Apple related websites. Nothing mainstream, however.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2012 15:58:00 GMT -8
This will be the best indicator of overall iphone sales for Q4. US should be about 35% of total iphone sales(At least that is what I think). Anybody else have thoughts?? -Tom Just went through and pooled the numbers for the last 6 quarters. Maybe can project based on this data? Excellent work - thanks for the chart! Most helpful number there I think is too look at the 32% combined share of overall iphone sales in the last iphone launch quarter (Jan 12 earnings). I figure this years Oct quarter % will come in at least that high, and up to 40% share peak. 32%-40% is a big range, but its the Higher end number I'm more interested in. If we see 10 million combined sales (very doable in my opinion), based on a 40% worst case total iphone share scenario, we should see 25 million total iphones. On the other hand, if we use the previous launch quarter share of 32%, 10 million AT&T+Verizon sales would equate to 31 million iphones total.
|
|
|
Post by rosie on Oct 15, 2012 16:13:24 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Oct 15, 2012 16:44:25 GMT -8
IMHO, Nick believes in the power of EOs, as do I.
|
|
|
Post by roni on Oct 15, 2012 17:04:54 GMT -8
I am still way long, tilted to Jan 2014 and 2015's, but also a healthy (I hope) dose of April 2013's.
I also have a record amount of dividend positions, now about 1/3rd of our IRAs.
|
|
|
Post by mbeauch on Oct 15, 2012 17:08:03 GMT -8
IMHO, Nick believes in the power of EOs, as do I. Believe in them, I think they are outside right now.
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Oct 15, 2012 17:26:44 GMT -8
(...)To me for many technicals and patterns it's not so much that they magically work, but rather that they are a tell to the psychological mindset of those behind the trade, and the myriad of things going on in the collective shareholder's head and in their account. Yes, Yes, YES!!!!!!
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 15, 2012 17:30:53 GMT -8
I REALLY REALLY love the new iPod commercial. I know I posted this a few times before but I REALLY LOVE IT! ;D
|
|
|
Post by roni on Oct 15, 2012 17:34:09 GMT -8
I REALLY REALLY love the new iPod commercial. I know I posted this a few times before but I REALLY LOVE IT! ;D I have not seen it yet
|
|
|
Post by phoebear611 on Oct 15, 2012 17:35:35 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by lovemyipad on Oct 15, 2012 17:58:01 GMT -8
I have not seen comments here on this article: www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-charts-signal-trouble-ahead-2012-10-08I thought Elder was one of the most respected gurus of TA. His last article in April preceded the collapse of the stock so precisely one could argue that he was responsible for the end to the December-April rise. Now he is essentially saying that Apple is done, justifying it with TA and a superficial nod toward fundamentals. I didn't find anything about this article convincing, but given what happened in April, is anyone concerned that he will have the same effect again? Elder's technical analysis is spot-on; however, his fundamental commentary is a crock. Though I love conspiracy theories, I don't believe Elder (or Kass, for that matter) has the power to sway the stock. GS, on the other hand...
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 15, 2012 18:12:02 GMT -8
AmericanBull must have liked today's hammer, and whatever Friday was, because we are now a "Confirmed Buy". Can it get any better than this?? (Mav) Confirmed Buy?!?
|
|
Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
|
Post by Mav on Oct 15, 2012 18:14:11 GMT -8
(...)The only candles I look for are hammer's, usually at the top or bottom of a trend, very good at giving a reversal signal. (...) Time for Mav to break out the pic... Thanks for the reminder!
|
|