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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 30, 2015 9:33:58 GMT -8
The insidious brilliance of the "Apple is about to fail" thesis is that It can never be disproven.
A blockbuster quarter? "The tough compares a year from now will provide that Apple is going to fail"
Another blockbuster quarter? "They will have an even tougher time topping that."
Another good quarter? "Yes but no one will buy the next iteration"
And so on... It's always about the future, not the facts of the present.
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Post by rob_london on Apr 30, 2015 9:59:30 GMT -8
Market Monitor: Q1 2015: Smartphones: China "The overall China smartphone market grew 7% annually but slowed down by 10% sequentially in spite of the Chinese holiday season. Apple led the China smartphone market with a massive 16% share in Q1 2015....Apple grew faster than Xiaomi in China as the demand for the new iPhone 6 series has begun to attract and penetrate middle class Chinese consumers apart from the huge base of wealthy urban Chinese consumers" www.counterpointresearch.com/marketmonitorchina2015q1
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Post by gtrplyr on Apr 30, 2015 10:06:11 GMT -8
Is it FUD? No. So there you go. I've got a small surprise for the AAPL bears on Monday. I can say no more... I'd feel much better about your "surprise" if you were actually Tim Cook ..... how bout a hint ?
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Post by flyonthewall on Apr 30, 2015 10:17:36 GMT -8
Just BTFD and it feels good.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2015 10:22:34 GMT -8
The market's reaction to AAPL's report is utterly bizarre, especially in light of AMZN's meteoric rise after it announced its ho-hum results. It burns me that the media broadcasts nonstop FUD about Apple and expends zero effort toward educating viewers on P/E ratios, Cash Flow, F/S, etc. Where is the skepticism for all the lesser companies out there? Hint: A picture can be worth 1,000 words.
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Post by Apple II+ on Apr 30, 2015 10:29:09 GMT -8
I don't understand people who call an 11% dividend increase shabby. When was the last time you got an 11% raise? Frankly it's exactly where I hoped Apple would take it and I thought I was being overly optimistic. Can't wait to see what the dividend is in 10 years. An 11% dividend increase is nice, but a 1.6% yield is not as nice as the 2.5% yield of a year ago.
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Post by Luckychoices on Apr 30, 2015 10:31:47 GMT -8
Another day another 2 bucks Can't help but just laugh at this point. LOL Yeh, 125.xx is definitely NOT where I thought we'd be today after such stellar numbers and the momentum shown going into earnings. BUT this is nothing new for AAPL or us. My options for this year I legged into almost-no-cost spreads a while ago with the closest expiration being Jan '16 and the highest strike to clear 135. Let's not allow the weekly bumpiness to bum us out too much - even in the face of such unjust treatment - esp. given the tallest call wall ever(?)... For Tim & c. to do so well with FX winds against them is pretty amazing. Let others be scared off by the usual FUD tactics. Uncle Carl and I will be having lunch on the veranda.IMO, the AAPL Longs who have seen this FUD action after great earnings or product introductions for many years have an easier time dealing with it. It's still irritating...it's still frustrating...but we've long since decided to continue to base our investment on the excellent fundamentals of Apple Inc. instead of listening to the desperate naysayers or reacting to the crapshoot behavior of the market. Let the share price rise and fall. If I were not already fully invested in AAPL, I'd BTFD whenever I could. Since I am fully invested, I must admit to hoping for the price to fall just a little right about dividend time so my auto-invested IRA AAPL dividends will be able buy even more shares of the company that's made my retirement so financially secure. Cheers to the Apple Longs!
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Apr 30, 2015 10:33:37 GMT -8
I don't understand people who call an 11% dividend increase shabby. When was the last time you got an 11% raise? Frankly it's exactly where I hoped Apple would take it and I thought I was being overly optimistic. Can't wait to see what the dividend is in 10 years. An 11% dividend increase is nice, but a 1.6% yield is not as nice as the 2.5% yield of a year ago. Ahhh, if it's yield that concerns you, it's up to 1.66% right now.
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Post by Luckychoices on Apr 30, 2015 10:53:33 GMT -8
I don't understand people who call an 11% dividend increase shabby. When was the last time you got an 11% raise? Frankly it's exactly where I hoped Apple would take it and I thought I was being overly optimistic. Can't wait to see what the dividend is in 10 years. An 11% dividend increase is nice, but a 1.6% yield is not as nice as the 2.5% yield of a year ago. Dividend yield = Annual Dividends per Share/Price per Share Since the yield has dropped almost a full percentage point because the stock price has climbed so much over last year, I'm hoping the yield goes down even further real soon now. All I know is, when the AAPL dividend hits my trust and IRA accounts every quarter, it adds a great deal of extra money to accounts that were fully invested in AAPL 10-15 years before the dividend started again in 2012. As long as the % dividend being paid goes up a substantial amount (like maybe 10%) every year, I want the lowest dividend yield we can get within that parameter. In fact, if the denominator in the dividend yield formula became 200 or so by the start of 2016, I promise not to complain about the paltry dividend yield that would give us.
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Post by mrentropy on Apr 30, 2015 11:00:25 GMT -8
Wow, who on Monday afternoon would have thought they could have brought this down to the 125 call wall. Anybody have any doubts left that call walls are a thing anymore? Hard to find a more obvious proof than this
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Post by Lstream on Apr 30, 2015 11:10:00 GMT -8
Wow, who on Monday afternoon would have thought they could have brought this down to the 125 call wall. Anybody have any doubts left that call walls are a thing anymore? Hard to find a more obvious proof than this There are many possible explanations and none of them can be proven. Including call walls.
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Post by nagrani on Apr 30, 2015 11:33:46 GMT -8
In this type of market, many traders would short index, bringing AAPL along, then more decline due to margin calls. The deep correction that pundits have been predicting for broad market may finally be here. Below $124.46 would confirm ahem... Bad news Close but no cigar.
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 30, 2015 11:38:24 GMT -8
Is that number the closing number or intraday?
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Post by nathanstevens on Apr 30, 2015 11:38:27 GMT -8
In this type of market, many traders would short index, bringing AAPL along, then more decline due to margin calls. The deep correction that pundits have been predicting for broad market may finally be here. Below $124.46 would confirm ahem... Bad news Close but no cigar. Sitting right on the rising trend line from 121.63>122.61>123.1>124.46.
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Post by mace on Apr 30, 2015 11:56:20 GMT -8
Is that number the closing number or intraday? So long it happens is bad news. Please note the bearish divergence between price and MACD from $133.60 to $134.54, and the highly reliable bearish engulfing candlestick pattern just after earning... not good... say what you want about fundamentals... technicals don't lie, and usually we know of the fundamentals long after the damage is done... any1 have any insider info? The best optimistic view from EW perspective is still in 5.iv? a large flat from late Feb to now... in which case, not lower than $122.60... trying to put up a brave face
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Post by nagrani on Apr 30, 2015 11:59:26 GMT -8
Wake up apple. Hopefully tomorrow being the first of the month will be good for apple.
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Post by nagrani on Apr 30, 2015 11:59:54 GMT -8
I for one bought aggressively today at close
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Post by nagrani on Apr 30, 2015 12:10:15 GMT -8
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Post by rickag on Apr 30, 2015 12:39:31 GMT -8
An 11% dividend increase is nice, but a 1.6% yield is not as nice as the 2.5% yield of a year ago. Dividend yield = Annual Dividends per Share/Price per Share Since the yield has dropped almost a full percentage point because the stock price has climbed so much over last year, I'm hoping the yield goes down even further real soon now. All I know is, when the AAPL dividend hits my trust and IRA accounts every quarter, it adds a great deal of extra money to accounts that were fully invested in AAPL 10-15 years before the dividend started again in 2012. As long as the % dividend being paid goes up a substantial amount (like maybe 10%) every year, I want the lowest dividend yield we can get within that parameter. In fact, if the denominator in the dividend yield formula became 200 or so by the start of 2016, I promise not to complain about the paltry dividend yield that would give us. On the other hand, we could look at the dividend on our cost basis. My AAPL cost basis is ~ $0.67 sssooooo my dividend on an annual basis is 310%.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 30, 2015 12:43:39 GMT -8
You know, there's so much to be made on AAPL, especially around earnings. When you see articles like that on Monday of "options market predicts move of 4.x% in shares of Apple", you just come to expect some odd movements. And it seems like more often than not, especially on a rise into earnings, that that's going to be a move downward. And the likely explanation is that retail investors get a little too hyped, and the big traders are fine taking the other side of the trade.
After looking at the May 1st OI, with around 120k open on both the call and puts side at 125 (which is much higher than other strikes), it seems very likely it will pin within 10 cents of there tomorrow. And as with past pinnings, the stock price tends to get there on Thursday. (though volumes were pretty high on May 1st 125-127's in the last hour, so it will be interesting to see the new OI's)
While this seems to happen more often than not when large OI's occur, it's entirely possible that we just notice it more when it happens, and form a pattern. (while I was at Apple the randomize feature was added to iTunes, and it got quite a few bug reports of not really being random since occasionally songs on the same album would play back to back. It turns out it was behaving fine, but people's minds are always looking for patterns)
Looking at the chart (today, ...Monday I would have probably thought 125), I was expecting a low in the 122.5-125 range, depending on what held. But moving over to OI in the May 1st options, that 125 level looked to be a huge magnet.
But as for buying, 12 month price targets from analysts look to be getting ahead of themselves IMO. But, there's plenty of "reasonable room" to make some money. I never got around to moving over any of my Roth from shares to spreads as I should have 22 months ago, but I'm considering it now. Tomorrow or Monday could be great times, but I'll be out most of tomorrow doing trail work. So I went ahead and used some spare cash I had sitting in my Roth and both some Jan '17 120-160 bull call spreads just a few minutes before closing for 12.95. The short side is a up a step from where I would have bought it a few years ago, but this last year I was burned by having it called away right before a dividend a couple times, so I bought it higher. And this complements my Jan '16 100-130's (which are only at about 18 now), though I'll be looking to buy some Jan '16 120-140's or -150's if I do start rotating out some shares.
Good luck all. Hindsight is 20/20, so there's always things I or anyone else coulda/shoulda/woulda. But right now, with two quarter's of over 40% gain in YOY earnings per share, and with more buybacks planned, things are looking pretty positive. Unless too much is already baked in (which it shouldn't be given the P/E comparisons), odds are that unless something really changes for the worst, the stock will be higher in the future than now. These days I try to look close to 1-2 years out and be conservative (10-20% YOY stock gains), but each investor has their own feelings towards that. But unless you were planning on selling this week, having the stock flat or down for a few days really isn't a bad thing.
And like others have said, hopefully Apple is taking advantage of that to buy back some shares. The more they buy now, the less they have to pay dividends on, ever again.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 30, 2015 12:56:11 GMT -8
On the other hand, we could look at the dividend on our cost basis. My AAPL cost basis is ~ $0.67 sssooooo my dividend on an annual basis is 310%. Congrats! I had some shares down there. Tax-wise, I sold those shares, but I've never been without shares of AAPL since buying those on the 2nd trading day of '98 (maybe 16 5/8....somewhere in the 16 to 18 range). If only I had some sizable money or a house to leverage back then...
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Post by rickag on Apr 30, 2015 14:44:23 GMT -8
For those that believe OI is a magnet, the next 2 months look ugly. Need a lot of put action or calls being exercised.
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Post by phoebear611 on Apr 30, 2015 15:52:40 GMT -8
Tonight on Mad Money Cramer told people that they should start to get in there and begin buying AAPL. He said he figured people would hit if for a few days and the dust should be settling now. Time to start getting in now. He's been positive on the company all along and has advised folks not to trade it - just stay long. Invest in it and leave it alone. He has really turned the corner on the name over the last several months.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 30, 2015 15:58:34 GMT -8
For those that believe OI is a magnet, the next 2 months look ugly. The question is what did it look like a week ago, and what will it look like a week or 2 from now. Any huge positions that are new, but not expiring this week, could very well just be a play on volatility or even just on earnings. There's so many ways to play options that unless you see the big trades go through and can deduce that a few big trades coming through all at once are thus together (such as that article on Monday, something like 2500 of one, 7500 of another, and 5000 of a third, long the first and last and short the middle), it's tough. OTOH, when OI or volume is similar on most, but then spikes on a couple strikes, even without analyzing the instantaneous feed you can make some likely valid assumptions. We'll see. It takes some decent money to make some of these volumes. Even the likely spreads from today's volume on Jan '17's really add up (maybe 1200 100-140's, and 1500 130-150's, for 4.8M and 3M. If all together and the second one is offsetting, that could be down to 1.8M. Either way, someone is throwing around a fair amount of money on just a single day) For pinning due to options, this is probably the article that I remember the most, namely that it (or at least some of it) is hedging by the MM's. seekingalpha.com/article/270466-digging-deeper-options-expert-discusses-pinning-max-pain-and-apple-part-twoBut personally, it all depends. IMO it's mostly on relative volumes (large specific option OI vs low stock volume makes for big changes, vs large but offsetting options OI doesn't matter too much, especially on larger stock volumes). But while I've been using options to varying degrees for 15 years, I'm sure I remember some things more than others, and am by no means an expert. But there's definitely been some big moves on expiration, some that I have lost large amounts of money on, but others where I've seen "something" move the stock price a couple percent in the last 5-30 minutes, and have just been in awww that someone has the means to move it like that.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 30, 2015 16:48:50 GMT -8
My take on pain this week. One tenet of pain range, at least according to those who follow Travis Lewis' version of it, is that big news trumps OpEx, assuming it moves the stock far enough away from large call walls. The problem here is, a substantial earnings beat did not move the stock. If anything, some baseless FUD moved it the other way (down). So to blame option pain, especially early in the week, I just don't think tells the whole story. The real story is, has AAPL become immune to good news? A lot of pollyannaish talk here argues otherwise, and I hope that is correct. But I found AAPL's lack of upward movement after earnings to be very troubling. Sorry, but a huge beat should trump pain. The good news is, the random chance casino has hit other stocks harder without justification. TWTR and CMG, and to some degree, FB, all got whacked despite good earnings numbers, that somehow fell short of charlatans' expectations. TWTR is a particular joke, as it increased earings by 74% (OMG down from 97%!) and it got whacked. Meanwhile, AMZN is on fire. There's jst no rational case for it. One problem is the growth of narrative journalism, which is the opposite of journalism. Kara Swisher alludes to it a bit WRT Twitter. Gotta let the facts lead you to the story, not the other way around, or you get it all twisted.
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Post by rezonate on Apr 30, 2015 17:55:40 GMT -8
Kinda glad I went a large portion to cash yesterday. Core AAPL holdings untouched. Watch out below (broader market). See y'all on Monday!
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 30, 2015 18:10:26 GMT -8
Earnings definitely trumps OI. I think this week has been all about Watch uncertainty and doubt.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2015 18:14:36 GMT -8
I think the open interest this week is unprecedented --for weeklies and earnings. FUD and the broader market certainly have played a role. Add irrationality to the mix and people get justifiably cynical real quick.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 30, 2015 19:16:58 GMT -8
Earnings definitely trumps OI. I think this week has been all about Watch uncertainty and doubt. Depends on the relative size of the call walls, and as I've said, I don't remember the call walls ever being this strong for weeklies. I can't prove it though because historical data isn't easy to come by. Too, the recent history AAPL crushing all calls at OPEX is feeding a perception larger than the economic power behind them. The pattern is solid; AAPL has been closing at the strike where most of the calls are eviscerated: perception becomes reality. Pageview journalism probably explains the rest -- along with market weakness. Got my stainless Watch today. First impressions: 1. Nice packaging, better than what I've seen in videos It's not a Rolex enclosure but the cost isn't $5k either. Apple did a nice job here. I can imagine the Watch Editions are a big step up. 2. I was up and running in 15 minutes, connected with my iPhone. Leaning curve is flatter if one watches the online videos on Apple's site. 3. Aesthetics are very nice, especially the back (wow), and it's comfortable (leather strap). 4. Main screen is zippy, including navigation between screens. However some apps are laggy (10 day weather app and NYT notifications were the biggest offenders) 5. Very convenient to see a red dot alerting me to pending notifications.. Digging the iPhone out of my pocket will be less an exercise. 6. Screen is plenty sharp and bright - no complaints. 7. AAPL ticker is available on just one or two clock faces, at least I wasn't able to add it on the other ones. 8. The limited number of clock faces is a disappointment. It's software, but it should have been out-of-the-box available. 9. I'm going to use the fitness app on a regular basis -- still learning all what's possible with that. No more ugly Nike Fuel band on my arm. 10. Heart rate is supposedly very accurate per CU testing, although I'm not sure how much I'll use it. Kind of cool, though. 11. Design-wise, I'm looking forward to a round face, if that's in the cards. 12. So far, the battery seems to be holding up well. The charge strap is genius, made out of metal, unlike the Sport Watch. 13. My iPhone rang from the other room, but I conveniently took the call from my watch, Dick Tracy like. The future has arrived. 14. ApplePay is even easier to use with the Watch than the Phone. Now if more stores will shed their luddite technology this will become a bigger feature of Watch. I'm convinced this device will have legs, particularly as Apple and developers grow the apps. It's not jewelry in the same way as a Rolex, IWC, etc, but as Apple designs and offers more cases, materials, bands, it has the potential to crossover into jewelry. The tipping point is on the horizon, when it becomes difficult to wear a mechanical timepiece at the cost of foregoing the feature set of a smartwatch. It may not be fully realized today but it's not far off; I'm not buying the notion people will wear one of each on each wrist. Oh, and the taptic engine works fine in MY watch. I must have gotten lucky. /s How purveyors of FUD retain any self-respect is really beyond me.
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