JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,183
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Post by JDSoCal on May 7, 2015 22:58:36 GMT -8
But AAPL and irrationality. That's been nearly a constant thing over the past 20 years. Really only in retrospect at the peaks was it around where I'd consider standard metrics to be pricing it right, or even overpricing it just a little. Yeah, but here's a question, the answer to which my sieve-like brain cannot recall: Has AAPL ever dropped after the holy trinity of resounding top-line, bottom-line, and guidance beats? And assuming no huge run-up before earnings like this time? That "but but low Watch margins!" bullshit is awfully weak sauce to hang a bear hat upon. Sorry to see no Norm MacDonald fans here to get my hookers and crack allusion.
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Post by rickag on May 8, 2015 3:02:35 GMT -8
Me personally, tax free municipal bonds for enough to live on and grow somewhat, the rest in a very diversified portfolio of dividend stocks. If I could, 100% tax free bonds just so I could flip off the IRS. My wife would frown on hookers and crack Living up to your avatar... Going to put any of it into advanced chess classes? Just curious. Weirdly enough I don play chess, just liked the picture.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,635
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Post by 4aapl on May 8, 2015 5:44:56 GMT -8
But AAPL and irrationality. That's been nearly a constant thing over the past 20 years. Really only in retrospect at the peaks was it around where I'd consider standard metrics to be pricing it right, or even overpricing it just a little. Yeah, but here's a question, the answer to which my sieve-like brain cannot recall: Has AAPL ever dropped after the holy trinity of resounding top-line, bottom-line, and guidance beats? And assuming no huge run-up before earnings like this time? Yes, it has. There was a little bit of a run-up this time, say 10 points up to 135 in AH. It was the first time over 130 in something like 1.5-2 months. I specifically remember at least one time where Apple knocked the socks off people, and it was positive in AH, and then dove the next day. (Was over on TMF, and made brownies or cookies or something to celebrate, while others were pulling out their wine and aged whiskey. It was a large beat). What I don't remember is how long it stayed down. But it's happened, and even happened quite a few times. For a few quarters there I was selling off a thousand shares in my IRA in AH, and buying them back the next day. I think I made $5/share for maybe 3 quarters, but then the last time it didn't work out and it popped the next day instead. The question is, how similar or different were the expectations/beat/outlook then, and how long did it take to recover. And how much does that matter now, with a market cap maybe 10x greater or whatnot.
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