Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on May 8, 2015 2:21:37 GMT -8
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Post by michelc on May 8, 2015 4:56:16 GMT -8
Since84 You have a typo in the date
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Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on May 8, 2015 5:02:59 GMT -8
Fixed. Thanks.
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Post by hledgard on May 8, 2015 5:29:14 GMT -8
Yesterday's extended discussion of AAPL, P/E, price compared to other stocks, buy back, cash, etc. was great. Thanks to all of you !
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 8, 2015 6:01:58 GMT -8
Hmmm, looking a lot like last Thursday/Friday so far.
For the interesting options trades, someone closed 13710 of May 8th 150 calls, instead of waiting for them to just expire. While this could be someone long on them just trying to get anything they possibly still could, IMO a lot of these are part of a spread. I know I had one time where I was closing out the long side of a spread the day of expiration, and had to pick off the short sides too even though they were well out of the money. Like on a 400-460 with the stock at 420. If it expired at that price I'd have some big issues, since I in no way had the buying power to buy the shares at 420 in that quantity, and this was just one of a few different spreads in that position.
So even though I had to pay a few cents each to close those way out of the money short sides, I had to to keep the brokerage happy, else they'd get worried that I only had some massively short positions.
Anyway, just some food for thought (and I wonder if that big May 22 115 Put purchase earlier this week was offsetting something). Last friday the stock closed at 128.95, so I'm guessing that for today. Discount it by the 52 cent dividend, if you think it matters here.
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Post by phoebear611 on May 8, 2015 6:02:49 GMT -8
Yeah well except for the hookers, blow, and trophy wives part!
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on May 8, 2015 6:32:10 GMT -8
Despite the teaser, eyeball-grabbing, 'Apple'-included headline, the article shows that in fact AAPL is pretty evenly held by all ages. The graphs show that really more >50 & >65 yr olds hold Facebook and Google than Apple, so take that Apple-is-for-old-fuddy-duddies headline and shove it in the bullshit, click-bait folder. Spoiler alert: GE is held by the oldest of all… Cheers to the longs!
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Post by Odd-Lot Richard on May 8, 2015 6:49:13 GMT -8
Either way, AAPL seems to be nearly always undervalued compared to it's peers, and I don't see that as being any different now. On the positive side, as more and more compression has occurred, there's less left to squeeze. And so increased earnings will have a more direct correlation with stock movement. Of course that assumes a floor somewhere, like a P/E of 10 that XOM used to stay below. But apparently that's a moving target too. I think the big factors in the low "ISM"* of Apple are: 1. The "Crackberry collapse" weighs on mobile investors' minds 1a. People don't see the iOS as a moat 2. People don't see the supply chain mastery as a moat. 3. They've been to the brink before under previous managements The last two points are considerations of management. Can Apple perform if the current leadership (aesthetic, operations) goes away? Can they retain top talent? * I forget, did Thurman get sick of us or was he banned?
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on May 8, 2015 6:54:41 GMT -8
Hmmm, looking a lot like last Thursday/Friday so far. For the interesting options trades, someone closed 13710 of May 8th 150 calls, instead of waiting for them to just expire. While this could be someone long on them just trying to get anything they possibly still could, IMO a lot of these are part of a spread. I know I had one time where I was closing out the long side of a spread the day of expiration, and had to pick off the short sides too even though they were well out of the money. Like on a 400-460 with the stock at 420. If it expired at that price I'd have some big issues, since I in no way had the buying power to buy the shares at 420 in that quantity, and this was just one of a few different spreads in that position. If you are talking about a bull call spread (BCS), I don't quite understand this paragraph. If it was a 400-460 BCS, then the 400 leg would have been the long leg, and the 460 would have been the short leg. If you sell the 400, you would receive a lot more cash than the 460 was worth at the time, and that cash would be sitting in the margin account. As for the short 460, the way brokerages calculate margin is by subtracting the strike from the share price and performing the calculation that is shown here - www.cboe.com/tradtool/mcalc/ (select "short call" as the strategy to try it out) That margin amount would be MUCH lower than the cash that was just added to the account by selling the 400s. Unless your brokerage has some very odd margin requirements for options, I don't see why this was necessary. Did you see my comment yesterday about possible calendar spread? What do you think?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2015 7:00:06 GMT -8
Despite the teaser, eyeball-grabbing, 'Apple'-included headline, the article shows that in fact AAPL is pretty evenly held by all ages. The graphs show that really more >50 & >65 yr olds hold Facebook and Google than Apple, so take that Apple-is-for-old-fuddy-duddies headline and shove it in the bullshit, click-bait folder. Spoiler alert: GE is held by the oldest of all… Cheers to the longs! The source data behind the charts probably sucks even more than the headline. My impression of MarketWatch is that it's no friend of AAPL. Uh oh, my 2011 iMac is burping bad things....may need a new 5k iMac for the home.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 8, 2015 7:26:52 GMT -8
Despite the teaser, eyeball-grabbing, 'Apple'-included headline, the article shows that in fact AAPL is pretty evenly held by all ages. The graphs show that really more >50 & >65 yr olds hold Facebook and Google than Apple, so take that Apple-is-for-old-fuddy-duddies headline and shove it in the bullshit, click-bait folder. Spoiler alert: GE is held by the oldest of all… Cheers to the longs! The source data behind the charts probably sucks even more than the headline. My impression of MarketWatch is that it's no friend of AAPL. Uh oh, my 2011 iMac is burping bad things....may need a new 5k iMac for the home. Keep buying those Macs, Mercel! I just bumped up to a new Macbook Pro after the 2009 workhorse finally wheezed at me one too many times....Pick it up this weekend. (I'm not ready for the Macbook quite yet.)
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on May 8, 2015 7:28:39 GMT -8
Yeah well except for the hookers, blow, and trophy wives part! Gee, and I always assumed that you were a trophy wife, Phoebes! But maybe we have different definitions...
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 8, 2015 7:40:54 GMT -8
Yeah well except for the hookers, blow, and trophy wives part! Gee, and I always assumed that you were a trophy wife, Phoebes! But maybe we have different definitions... You two Tom Brady lovers need to reevaluate your priorities! (Big smiley face!!!!)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2015 8:13:40 GMT -8
The source data behind the charts probably sucks even more than the headline. My impression of MarketWatch is that it's no friend of AAPL. Uh oh, my 2011 iMac is burping bad things....may need a new 5k iMac for the home. Keep buying those Macs, Mercel! I just bumped up to a new Macbook Pro after the 2009 workhorse finally wheezed at me one too many times....Pick it up this weekend. (I'm not ready for the Macbook quite yet.) The MacBook feels so much lighter and smaller than my MacBook Air, which is headed to craigslist. Tim Cook knows I'm doing my part. A close above $127 today would be bullish. Uncle Carl's message to Tim Cook is imminent, but it may not be released until after next week, crushing the monthlies (500k call contracts above the $129 strike) and allow AAPL to move up without the restraining influence of the tractor beam. One of these days, or insolvency, the weekly players will figure it out.
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on May 8, 2015 8:32:00 GMT -8
Keep buying those Macs, Mercel! I just bumped up to a new Macbook Pro after the 2009 workhorse finally wheezed at me one too many times....Pick it up this weekend. (I'm not ready for the Macbook quite yet.) The MacBook feels so much lighter and smaller than my MacBook Air, which is headed to craigslist. Tim Cook knows I'm doing my part. A close above $127 today would be bullish. Uncle Carl's message to Tim Cook is imminent, but it may not be released until after next week, crushing the monthlies (500k call contracts above the $129 strike) and allow AAPL to move up without the restraining influence of the tractor beam. One of these days, or insolvency, the weekly players will figure it out. There's always another "tractor beam" ... after the May ones go away, you have the June ones, about 370k above 129 so far. And another 68k of 120/125. Even July already has 340k or so above 129!
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Post by doublerainbow on May 8, 2015 8:32:27 GMT -8
Hello everyone and happy Friday, happy early Mother's Day!
I've been quiet on the forums, checking it less - good for the nerves plus stock has become GARP-y so I don't even check the stock on a daily basis (or weekly). (: But I was wondering if anyone knew why some folks who pre-ordered the apple watch are getting their watches after others who ordered the watches 2 weeks ago in an apple store? 2 of my friends ordered their watches together at the store - 1 just got it yesterday, the other didn't (both sports watches). I pre-ordered mine and haven't gotten it yet either. ): Thank you for answering my question and sorry if this was already discussed somewhere else! Just want my watch ); *whimper*
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 8, 2015 8:44:46 GMT -8
Unless your brokerage has some very odd margin requirements for options, I don't see why this was necessary. I don't remember most of the specifics as to how much margin I was using at the time, or even if it was 100 or 200 spreads. If it was 100, and it was at a strike of 460, it looks like that would mean you would have to have around $460k (10% * 460 strike * 10,000 shares, plus the (minimal in this case) value of the option) of margin. Looks like if that is right, they would probably have a valid point on not letting me play around for a couple hours. Especially if it was 200 contracts, and I was likely using a fair amount of my margin pillow at the time. That was a rough though profitable day. I had some spreads where the short side was at 420, and it was looking like that was where things would pin (down from $426? This was a Jan expiration...looks like Jan 20, 2012). Anyway, it closed above that strike by 8 cents or something (historics say 420.30), which saved me from owning a lot of shares. But I got the last 20 cents or whatever on that spread (bid/asks often expand on deeper in the money options), gosh darn it. Sometimes you do some stupid things, in retrospect. Did you see my comment yesterday about possible calendar spread? What do you think? Yes, I think it must have been part of something bigger. My only hesitation there is that I'd expect the person tracking this stuff to see that some other large orders came in at the same time.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2015 9:01:13 GMT -8
The MacBook feels so much lighter and smaller than my MacBook Air, which is headed to craigslist. Tim Cook knows I'm doing my part. A close above $127 today would be bullish. Uncle Carl's message to Tim Cook is imminent, but it may not be released until after next week, crushing the monthlies (500k call contracts above the $129 strike) and allow AAPL to move up without the restraining influence of the tractor beam. One of these days, or insolvency, the weekly players will figure it out. There's always another "tractor beam" ... after the May ones go away, you have the June ones, about 370k above 129 so far. And another 68k of 120/125. Even July already has 340k or so above 129! That's right, but AAPL has a better chance of moving in a week without the heavy concentration of monthlies. After the shellacking of weekly call buyers over the recent past, I half expect weekly open interest will decline, but I could be mistaken about lotto activity. On another front, anyone interested in opening an AMZN Finance Board? Bernstein upped its price target to $600 yesterday. AMZN is flirting with $450, which is especially appalling on the heels of two new entrants that are targeting Amazon, as seen in yesterday's NYT. One is a frontal assault (can't recall the name); the other is headed up by Ron Johnson, whose name should ring bells (if not alarms).
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Post by Lstream on May 8, 2015 9:37:27 GMT -8
I think Ron Johnson is even more delusional than Amazon shareholders if he or anyone else thinks he is a threat to Amazon.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 8, 2015 9:58:39 GMT -8
I think Ron Johnson is even more delusional than Amazon shareholders if he or anyone else thinks he is a threat to Amazon. There's a difference between being a big threat and being a small threat. There's also a difference between getting extra free press, or not. Personally, if I was buying a drone, and had the choice of paying about the same amount from amazon or from someone who would show me how to use it for an hour, it would be an easy choice on which to go with. Likewise, if my parents were buying a new Mac (just did), and since they are in the Bay Area (currently the only place that company works with, but adding NYC), why not have them order it through that company. Apple does the same thing, helping you transfer it all over. But you have to bring your system to their store. It was easier to just have me do it. One problem with many Apple stores is that they aren't right near a parking lot, but instead in the middle of a mall. That's one advantage of the Reno store, it's an "outdoor" mall, so you can drive right up. You can also see that at many times, the Apple store is the only place doing much business, at least on a weekday.
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Post by phoebear611 on May 8, 2015 10:01:34 GMT -8
Red - I'm not a Tom Brady lover - it's all relative. They were playing the 49ers! That's why I wanted him to win plus I wanted my son in law to smile ( he's from Boston). Oh God we aren't going to get into whether Brady is a cheater are we? This Board may explode. I can argue both sides but I would have you think about one thing ... Was every football in every game throughout the year for every team checked? Or at least in all the play-offs? Everyone needs to be held to the same standard before you start handing out penalties. Can the league prove they did? The NFL has bigger problems sadly. And they aren't going away any time soon when several players that are being drafted have some type of mar on their record of sorts including being accused of some very serious things like rape. Ok - let's forget about Brady - he makes a boat load of money - let's worry about AAPL...hope we finish strong. Where is the 2:14 hour going to bring us or does it not apply on a Friday?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 8, 2015 10:29:59 GMT -8
Red - I'm not a Tom Brady lover - it's all relative. They were playing the 49ers! That's why I wanted him to win plus I wanted my son in law to smile ( he's from Boston). Oh God we aren't going to get into whether Brady is a cheater are we? This Board may explode. I can argue both sides but I would have you think about one thing ... Was every football in every game throughout the year for every team checked? Or at least in all the play-offs? Everyone needs to be held to the same standard before you start handing out penalties. Can the league prove they did? The NFL has bigger problems sadly. And they aren't going away any time soon when several players that are being drafted have some type of mar on their record of sorts including being accused of some very serious things like rape. Ok - let's forget about Brady - he makes a boat load of money - let's worry about AAPL...hope we finish strong. Where is the 2:14 hour going to bring us or does it not apply on a Friday? Just woofin, phoebes. 2:14 is gone and steady as she goes. Second solid Friday in a row. Will we get Monday follow through?
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Post by Lstream on May 8, 2015 10:41:09 GMT -8
I think Ron Johnson is even more delusional than Amazon shareholders if he or anyone else thinks he is a threat to Amazon. There's a difference between being a big threat and being a small threat. There's also a difference between getting extra free press, or not. Personally, if I was buying a drone, and had the choice of paying about the same amount from amazon or from someone who would show me how to use it for an hour, it would be an easy choice on which to go with. Likewise, if my parents were buying a new Mac (just did), and since they are in the Bay Area (currently the only place that company works with, but adding NYC), why not have them order it through that company. Apple does the same thing, helping you transfer it all over. But you have to bring your system to their store. It was easier to just have me do it. One problem with many Apple stores is that they aren't right near a parking lot, but instead in the middle of a mall. That's one advantage of the Reno store, it's an "outdoor" mall, so you can drive right up. You can also see that at many times, the Apple store is the only place doing much business, at least on a weekday. I am just trying to say that Ron Johnson is irrelevant to the Amazon share price and will be for a long time. Maybe forever.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,183
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Post by JDSoCal on May 8, 2015 10:46:00 GMT -8
Hmm, green despite a record 93,194,000 Americans not in the labor force...I guess we have to thank the Tory victory in the UK. This election shows that the UK will leave the EU, but in an orderly fashion. I only hope the inevitable Greek default and EU split doesn't bring the markets down. I can't believe we are still worrying about this Greece shit. Pull the Band-Aid off already and dump those lazy deadbeats! So the party continues for another week. I am of the opinion that Yellen's threats to raise rates are bullshit. Everyone is in too much debt to allow that. QE4? One of the funniest pics I've seen in along time, Peter Schiff with Ben Bernanke!
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 8, 2015 10:46:38 GMT -8
Where is the 2:14 hour going to bring us or does it not apply on a Friday? What's the 2:14 hour? So far things aren't an exact match with last friday, but it's rhyming. Is this the start of a move up, or are we going to see another net flat week, with a few days down? stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p96042476432I'd like to think that once things break out they will make some upward progress. But a few down days would let me buy a little something something instead of sitting on my hands. Jan '16 115-140 BCS now has an ask of 12.2 instead of the ~10.9 on wednesday when at 125 Jan '17 120-150 BCS would now be ~11.5, compared to 10.75 June 5th ATM is 1.1 instead of 1, and ATM is now 126-128 instead of 124-126 Coulda shoulda woulda. I was wondering about a RSI touching below 40, but I don't think it quite made it there even with intraday numbers on Thursday. But typing it out also makes me more likely to grab some if we see sub-126 next week. No product bump the monday/tuesday after earnings this time. I thought there was some expectation of a speed-bumped MBP, and lately Apple hasn't been waiting for WWDC for minor updates. Consumer reports or something talked of a new intel laptop processor in August, but that's still a bit away.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on May 8, 2015 10:54:32 GMT -8
*I forget, did Thurman get sick of us or was he banned? He got sick of us. I miss Gregg. Say what you want about his prickly personality and wild theories, but he's got brass balls.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 8, 2015 11:04:02 GMT -8
I don't know about any brass balls, but his "free shares theory" was pure entertainment.
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Post by dreamRaj on May 8, 2015 11:07:15 GMT -8
Just gifted wifey the UPS package containing the watch. It blew her mind when she saw what she got. The watch IS fascinating. She says she has the same feeling she had more than a decade ago when I'd gifted her the first iPod which made her feel special like she was the only one with the coolest thing on the planet.
My space gray 42mm is still scheduled for a May 29 - Jun 14 delivery. Can't wait to have the AAPL ticker on my wrist.
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Post by podboy on May 8, 2015 11:25:36 GMT -8
I know most of us love our apple products and might be a little bias but those of you who have had a couple of weeks with their apple watch, whats the verdict? How do you like them? Could you not live without it a la Timmy? Thanks, thinking about getting one.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on May 8, 2015 11:29:32 GMT -8
I agree, Gregg added a lot to the forum. I hope he is still reading it and will come back
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