chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on May 8, 2015 19:52:46 GMT -8
Note that closing price is adjusted for shiny new $.52/share dividend paid this week. Doldrums for dear old AAPL. The Watch illustrates the challenge for Apple, as far a sentiment goes. Although there is speculation that the first year unit sales will exceed the same period for the iPhone (5.4 million), and the ASP may very well be in the same range with a lower cost of goods (although admittedly without the benefit of subsidies from carriers), it will be a relatively small bump in corporate earnings for the year, especially obscured within the reporting structure. Once again the Cupertino folks are playing the long game. Apple Pay is similar. The new MacBook looks like it may be a bit too far ahead of its time, but the first MacBook Air felt the same and became the workhorse of the line. This is no longer a company that relies almost entirely on smash hits. As frustrating as the present response to the unbelievable 2Q15 earnings report is, patience will be rewarded. Meanwhile, I am looking forward to collecting the new dividend next month. Margaritas tonight for me. What'll ya have?
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on May 8, 2015 20:44:03 GMT -8
Note that closing price is adjusted for shiny new $.52/share dividend paid this week. Doldrums for dear old AAPL. The Watch illustrates the challenge for Apple, as far a sentiment goes. Although there is speculation that the first year unit sales will exceed the same period for the iPhone (5.4 million), and the ASP may very well be in the same range with a lower cost of goods (although admittedly without the benefit of subsidies from carriers), it will be a relatively small bump in corporate earnings for the year, especially obscured within the reporting structure. Once again the Cupertino folks are playing the long game. Apple Pay is similar. The new MacBook looks like it may be a bit too far ahead of its time, but the first MacBook Air felt the same and became the workhorse of the line. This is no longer a company that relies almost entirely on smash hits. As frustrating as the present response to the unbelievable 2Q15 earnings report is, patience will be rewarded. Meanwhile, I am looking forward to collecting the new dividend next month. Margaritas tonight for me. What'll ya have? My local classic rock station played all of In The Dark last night, and I thought of you. I was never a fan of the Dead, mostly because I hated those types I knew who listened to them when I was in college. But they seem like relaxing music, even if you aren't on peyote, so maybe I'll give them a chance on streaming radio. BTW, Spotify has a 99¢ for 90 day thing right now if anyone is interested. IPA's for JD...
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Post by artman1033 on May 8, 2015 21:17:37 GMT -8
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Post by 2centsplus on May 8, 2015 22:47:00 GMT -8
On a weekend in this merry month of May let us contemplate four different luscious ways that Aapl can return to its former PE of 25.
1. The Apple watch takes off the way that it looks like it might, demonstrating the capability to drive iPhone sales for the next 2-3 years.
2. Apple's big TV/radio thing that is now starting to come down on us is a hit. To control part of the future of TV has huge growth potential as things expand into unforeseen areas. Meanwhile the improved ecosystem further drives hardware sales, including more iPhones.
3. IOS continues to gain market share at the expense of Android for as little as the next six months, raising the possibility of a microsoft-like grip on the top half of the market. Apple Pay alone could make this happen.
4. We haven't had truly good economic times for so long that it seems that they may never return, but in the dim recesses of my mind I seem to remember companies like Apple getting a PE of 25-30 as growth accelerates in a booming economy.
These four scenarios do not seem to me to be mutually exclusive.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 9, 2015 8:23:42 GMT -8
Mav published an interesting piece on Samsung's prospects. I don't see how Sammy can respond to Apple's vertical model and will be forever captive to Google. The SG6 offers two things I can see: A Bolex version of iPhone 6 for Android sufferers and fast charging. In other words, it won't do anything to stem the hemorrhaging. Just desserts. aapltree.wordpress.com/2014/10/09/theyll-help-but-chips-alone-will-not-save-samsung/
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Post by rickag on May 9, 2015 8:42:16 GMT -8
Mav
Another well written article congratulations.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on May 9, 2015 10:25:45 GMT -8
On a weekend in this merry month of May let us contemplate four different luscious ways that Aapl can return to its former PE of 25. 1. The Apple watch takes off the way that it looks like it might, demonstrating the capability to drive iPhone sales for the next 2-3 years. 2. Apple's big TV/radio thing that is now starting to come down on us is a hit. To control part of the future of TV has huge growth potential as things expand into unforeseen areas. Meanwhile the improved ecosystem further drives hardware sales, including more iPhones. 3. IOS continues to gain market share at the expense of Android for as little as the next six months, raising the possibility of a microsoft-like grip on the top half of the market. Apple Pay alone could make this happen. 4. We haven't had truly good economic times for so long that it seems that they may never return, but in the dim recesses of my mind I seem to remember companies like Apple getting a PE of 25-30 as growth accelerates in a booming economy. These four scenarios do not seem to me to be mutually exclusive. Do you really think AAPL will ever return to a P/E of 25, even if any or all of these occur? For better or worse, I think AAPL will be stuck mainly in the P/e of 15-18 range, with occasional jumps possible up to 20, and occasional falls down to 12 or 11, or even 10 if things look like they are slowing. While a jumping P/E would boost the stock, if the P/E is now in a tighter range then additional earnings will goose the shares. It's not quite as quick, but it's a bit more solid. I think we'll see Google with a P/E below 20 before we see Apple with a P/E above 20. But once you embrace it, you can move on.
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Post by 2centsplus on May 9, 2015 12:55:00 GMT -8
Do you really think AAPL will ever return to a P/E of 25, even if any or all of these occur? I think there is some probability, yes, particularly given their cash position. I would be interested to know what Icahn and Apple themselves think - and we may find out soon from Icahn. But I agree with you about embracing the status quo. As I have said before, this is why we make money on Apple. It's always in show-me mode with a low PE because no one thinks it can keep growing. And yet to the surprise of most everyone except us apparently, it just keep growing at an outrageous rate. Of course one day we'll be wrong, but hopefully there is still plenty of money to be made before that day.
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Post by tuffett on May 9, 2015 16:56:14 GMT -8
Let's not forget, Apple's growth is now inconsistent. It went negative not long ago, and now we're at an amazing 40%. Will it do another 40% next year? Doubtful. Makes it very tough to value accurately, so a conservative valuation is applied. I've come to accept it because I've figured out how to play the game and it limits downside.
I'm sure if we polled the board there'd be quite a wide range of estimates for 1, 5 and 10 year growth, even though most of us are bulls.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 10, 2015 7:05:36 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on May 10, 2015 7:36:30 GMT -8
I have mentioned in the past that we sell systems to large Enterprises. About three years ago, we delivered our mobile solution on iOS only. Most of our customers had approved iOS. It is too early to tell for sure, and the evidence is so far anecdotal but it feels like iOS is starting to get shunned in favour of Windows and Android. One of our customers is a large Fortune 50 manufacturer. We have been told that their direction now is Windows for tablets and Android for phones. They want iOS out. Lack of control on various issues is the main reason. I believe that this relates to the direct link between Apple and its customers. It is very difficult (their claim) for an IT department to control what version of an OS or app that a user has in the Apple world. That bothers them. I don't know yet how they deal with this in Android, but they appear way more comfortable there. This is a place that approved iOS long before Android.
A while back I posted on the trauma we went through with Apple arbitrarily tossing us out of the App Store. When you are in the Apple world, you play by their rules (which are often clear as mud) and I am wondering if that form of control is leading to an Enterprise backlash like in this company, who also claim that there are similar directives at other large organizations. As a consumer I like the Apple model, but will be watching carefully what is happening with our Enterprise customers. We are also scrambling to put Android on the same footing as iOS, to deal with the possible acceleration of this trend, and to make sure Apple can't put us out of business by applying arbitrary rules against us again.
Don't get me wrong. Still love Apple, but this stuff bothers me as a shareholder.
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Post by hledgard on May 10, 2015 7:51:18 GMT -8
On a weekend in this merry month of May let us contemplate four different luscious ways that Aapl can return to its former PE of 25. 1. The Apple watch takes off the way that it looks like it might, demonstrating the capability to drive iPhone sales for the next 2-3 years. 2. Apple's big TV/radio thing that is now starting to come down on us is a hit. To control part of the future of TV has huge growth potential as things expand into unforeseen areas. Meanwhile the improved ecosystem further drives hardware sales, including more iPhones. 3. IOS continues to gain market share at the expense of Android for as little as the next six months, raising the possibility of a microsoft-like grip on the top half of the market. Apple Pay alone could make this happen. 4. We haven't had truly good economic times for so long that it seems that they may never return, but in the dim recesses of my mind I seem to remember companies like Apple getting a PE of 25-30 as growth accelerates in a booming economy. These four scenarios do not seem to me to be mutually exclusive. These are the kind of key points that need to happen for AAPL to continue upward. Where is the next big idea? What the market is saying that the giant share of profits for Apple is simply the iPhone. And how can Apple come up with another revolutionary idea like that. Unlikely, hence the market fears that Apple has crested. (Just like Microsoft did, IBM did, Google is now doing, and maybe that is what Apple is doing.)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2015 8:45:57 GMT -8
I have mentioned in the past that we sell systems to large Enterprises. About three years ago, we delivered our mobile solution on iOS only. Most of our customers had approved iOS. It is too early to tell for sure, and the evidence is so far anecdotal but it feels like iOS is starting to get shunned in favour of Windows and Android. One of our customers is a large Fortune 50 manufacturer. We have been told that their direction now is Windows for tablets and Android for phones. They want iOS out. Lack of control on various issues is the main reason. I believe that this relates to the direct link between Apple and its customers. It is very difficult (their claim) for an IT department to control what version of an OS or app that a user has in the Apple world. That bothers them. I don't know yet how they deal with this in Android, but they appear way more comfortable there. This is a place that approved iOS long before Android. A while back I posted on the trauma we went through with Apple arbitrarily tossing us out of the App Store. When you are in the Apple world, you play by their rules (which are often clear as mud) and I am wondering if that form of control is leading to an Enterprise backlash like in this company, who also claim that there are similar directives at other large organizations. As a consumer I like the Apple model, but will be watching carefully what is happening with our Enterprise customers. We are also scrambling to put Android on the same footing as iOS, to deal with the possible acceleration of this trend, and to make sure Apple can't put us out of business by applying arbitrary rules against us again. Don't get me wrong. Still love Apple, but this stuff bothers me as a shareholder. I don't have to remind people that Enterprise is full of PC-centric people who would like to stay close inside the Wintel womb, both for comfort level and job security. I agree that Apple needs to be more aggressive AND supportive with enterprise decision-makers. On an issue felt close to home, Apple can START with fixing a very dumb issue created by Yosemite, which prevents Excel users to format negative numbers with brackets. Yosemite has been out 7 months now and anyone creating an Excel f/s can't format negative numbers properly without resorting to a cumbersome work-around that is less than perfect. That said, one Fortune 500 company does not a trend make.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2015 8:51:59 GMT -8
I'm using a number of third party apps and they work like a charm, but I'm only downloading those highly-rated apps that work without lag. It seems pretty obvious by now that iPhone needs to do the heavy lifting to avoid lag on the Watch. The Watch apps will get better no doubt, but Apple could have done a better job ensuring these apps worked better out of the box.
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Post by Lstream on May 10, 2015 9:31:12 GMT -8
Yep, not a trend yet. On the other hand, almost every customer asks when we will have Android support. We have lost at least one major account due to iOS only. The example I pointed out is pretty extreme, since they are trying to get rid of iOS which is a new one for me. It is also significant to me, because it is the only time I ever went into an account and did a joint presentation with Apple. There was a solid relationship there, and now it appears to be gone.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,545
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Post by mark on May 10, 2015 9:43:49 GMT -8
I don't have to remind people that Enterprise is full of PC-centric people who would like to stay close inside the Wintel womb, both for comfort level and job security. I agree that Apple needs to be more aggressive AND supportive with enterprise decision-makers. On an issue felt close to home, Apple can START with fixing a very dumb issue created by Yosemite, which prevents Excel users to format negative numbers with brackets. Yosemite has been out 7 months now and anyone creating an Excel f/s can't format negative numbers properly without resorting to a cumbersome work-around that is less than perfect. That said, one Fortune 500 company does not a trend make. What??? I just tried it and it took about 2 seconds! #,##0.00;[Red](-#,##0.00)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2015 10:07:25 GMT -8
I don't have to remind people that Enterprise is full of PC-centric people who would like to stay close inside the Wintel womb, both for comfort level and job security. I agree that Apple needs to be more aggressive AND supportive with enterprise decision-makers. On an issue felt close to home, Apple can START with fixing a very dumb issue created by Yosemite, which prevents Excel users to format negative numbers with brackets. Yosemite has been out 7 months now and anyone creating an Excel f/s can't format negative numbers properly without resorting to a cumbersome work-around that is less than perfect. That said, one Fortune 500 company does not a trend make. What??? I just tried it and it took about 2 seconds! #,##0.00;[Red](-#,##0.00) I didn't say I couldn't get it to work using a custom format option, but it's a royal PIA to reformat existing spreadsheets. And btw, your format does not produce brackets using Office 2011 and Yosemite. You need to use a custom format.
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Post by phoebear611 on May 10, 2015 11:36:09 GMT -8
How is it that NO ONE on this Board wished all the Moms a Happy Mother's Day! Oh for goodness sake! I hope it was because you were making your mom or wives or someone in that category happy today! Happy Mother's Day to those of you who are mothers out there and to those of you who bore some of the feisty and witty curmudgeons on this board! Lord knows you probably had your hands full as they grew up!
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Post by qualitywte on May 10, 2015 11:41:20 GMT -8
Happy Mothers Day to all the Mama's out there!
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Post by qualitywte on May 10, 2015 11:52:35 GMT -8
One of our customers is a large Fortune 50 manufacturer. We have been told that their direction now is Windows for tablets and Android for phones. They want iOS out. Lack of control on various issues is the main reason. I believe that this relates to the direct link between Apple and its customers. It is very difficult (their claim) for an IT department to control what version of an OS or app that a user has in the Apple world. That bothers them. I don't know yet how they deal with this in Android, but they appear way more comfortable there. This is a place that approved iOS long before Android. Don't get me wrong. Still love Apple, but this stuff bothers me as a shareholder. I would be interested in what the others here (those that still have to work for a living) are seeing in regards to enterprise adoption. In my case, a government contracting environment with heavy security requirements, we're running years behind the cutting edge tech trends. Most of the staff that have mobile phones have crackberries, but a recent change allowing iPhones was made and I'm seeing those being adopted. I see no androids around me and I'm not sure if they are allowed. From my vantage point, iOS adoption is being allowed because of pressure from the staff that use iPhones outside work and prefer that over BB or Android.
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Post by rickag on May 10, 2015 12:49:02 GMT -8
One of our customers is a large Fortune 50 manufacturer. We have been told that their direction now is Windows for tablets and Android for phones. They want iOS out. Lack of control on various issues is the main reason. I believe that this relates to the direct link between Apple and its customers. It is very difficult (their claim) for an IT department to control what version of an OS or app that a user has in the Apple world. That bothers them. I don't know yet how they deal with this in Android, but they appear way more comfortable there. This is a place that approved iOS long before Android. Don't get me wrong. Still love Apple, but this stuff bothers me as a shareholder. I would be interested in what the others here (those that still have to work for a living) are seeing in regards to enterprise adoption. In my case, a government contracting environment with heavy security requirements, we're running years behind the cutting edge tech trends. Most of the staff that have mobile phones have crackberries, but a recent change allowing iPhones was made and I'm seeing those being adopted. I see no androids around me and I'm not sure if they are allowed. From my vantage point, iOS adoption is being allowed because of pressure from the staff that use iPhones outside work and prefer that over BB or Android. In my little section of the world, iPhones are much more common with enterprise. We just entered a contract with a large international company that provides software for compliance with the Global Food Safety Initiative (GFSI). A large part of the software is for internal auditing and self inspection programs for compliance with the code. They specifically recommended iPad Airs for auditing. Very neat software, take the iPad out into the plant for a Good Manufacturing Practices audit, see a violation, use voice dictation to describe the violation, take a photo, assign responsibility and an email is immediately sent internally to the supervisor for root cause analysis and corrective action. Technicians checking HACCP (Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points) Critical Control Points (CCPs), for example cooking temperatures or metal detection just have to click yes or no, time is logged and documented. If out of compliance supervisors notified and product placed on hold. This software is tied to the Certifying Bodies under GFSI including British Retailers Consortium (BRC), Safe Quality Foods Institute (SQFI), ISO 22,000 and others. It is being used by some of the largest international food companies in the world. It is translated into Dutch, Spanish, Portuguese, German, French, Chinese and Finnish.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2015 14:26:11 GMT -8
How is it that NO ONE on this Board wished all the Moms a Happy Mother's Day! Oh for goodness sake! I hope it was because you were making your mom or wives or someone in that category happy today! Happy Mother's Day to those of you who are mothers out there and to those of you who bore some of the feisty and witty curmudgeons on this board! Lord knows you probably had your hands full as they grew up! I was a hands-free, low maintenance child, but I still took her out for lunch, drinks and shopping.
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Post by rickag on May 10, 2015 14:36:20 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 10, 2015 16:42:57 GMT -8
I would be interested in what the others here (those that still have to work for a living) are seeing in regards to enterprise adoption. In my case, a government contracting environment with heavy security requirements, we're running years behind the cutting edge tech trends. Most of the staff that have mobile phones have crackberries, but a recent change allowing iPhones was made and I'm seeing those being adopted. I see no androids around me and I'm not sure if they are allowed. From my vantage point, iOS adoption is being allowed because of pressure from the staff that use iPhones outside work and prefer that over BB or Android. In my part of the world (Banking), Blackberries are being moved out. The only choices available are a Blackberry or an iPhone. There will be no discussion regarding the use of Android devices connecting to the Bank. The VPs in Security use iPhones. One director in Security who has a personal Android (in addition to corporate BB), says you should only get an Android if you're willing to put the time in to it to secure it. Everyone else should get an iPhone. It's much more secure. Oh, he also sees the watch as a "game changer".
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Post by artman1033 on May 10, 2015 16:56:16 GMT -8
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,545
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Post by mark on May 10, 2015 17:34:33 GMT -8
What??? I just tried it and it took about 2 seconds! #,##0.00;[Red](-#,##0.00) I didn't say I couldn't get it to work using a custom format option, but it's a royal PIA to reformat existing spreadsheets. And btw, your format does not produce brackets using Office 2011 and Yosemite. You need to use a custom format. Ah, you're saying it doesn't transfer over from spreadsheets created on a PC. That's crazy! Why couldn't they fix that?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2015 18:52:44 GMT -8
I didn't say I couldn't get it to work using a custom format option, but it's a royal PIA to reformat existing spreadsheets. And btw, your format does not produce brackets using Office 2011 and Yosemite. You need to use a custom format. Ah, you're saying it doesn't transfer over from spreadsheets created on a PC. That's crazy! Why couldn't they fix that? Worksheets created on the Mac using Excel 2011 and Yosemite don't display negative numbers in the preferred format (i.e brackets; parentheses), whether originally created on a PC or a Mac. This issue is all over the internet and still remains unresolved since Yosemite's debut. I've written to Apple about it to no avail. To be clear, new worksheets can be formatted properly if you've saved the custom format into a default Workbook but no joy with preexisting worksheets that have to be reformatted one cell at a time. Since Office 2011 reenabled macros, I suppose I could build something but again, it shouldn't be necessary. A truly inexcusable state of affairs for people in enterprise using Excel on a Mac. And BTW, Office/Excel 2016 is currently a free download in preview mode (all 5GB of it), but this does nothing to solve the problem. Based on my online research, this is a conflict with Yosemite, not Microsoft. I want (500.00), not -500.00
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2015 19:04:23 GMT -8
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