Since84
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To infinity and beyond!
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Post by Since84 on May 14, 2015 2:41:34 GMT -8
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mark
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Post by mark on May 14, 2015 4:13:24 GMT -8
Always nice to see that dividend received. That is despite the fact that I don't like dividends and would prefer that all capital return come in the form of buybacks.
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Post by phoebear611 on May 14, 2015 4:53:50 GMT -8
C'mon baby...use your dividend cash and buy more shares!
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Post by phoebear611 on May 14, 2015 5:36:24 GMT -8
EW guys looking for $128.43 as a target. Large call wall on the weeklies for tomorrow at $130. Any technicians or magicians or curmudgeons or comedians for that matter have anything to add wrt price action here?
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 14, 2015 6:00:40 GMT -8
EW guys looking for $128.43 as a target. Large call wall on the weeklies for tomorrow at $130. Any technicians or magicians or curmudgeons or comedians for that matter have anything to add wrt price action here? There's a wall building at the $130 level for next week too. Interestingly, there's also an almost equal Put wall there. Fortunately, for the May 29th there's nothing to speak of so far
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Post by artman1033 on May 14, 2015 6:04:31 GMT -8
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 14, 2015 6:17:33 GMT -8
Hello 128!
Lets's keep going.....
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Post by nagrani on May 14, 2015 6:36:38 GMT -8
We are in range till we aren't. I say we stay in the 124.xx to 129.xx. I'm selling puts and/or buying calls on both bookends here
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 14, 2015 6:50:11 GMT -8
That's great stuff, with Lynch putting into words something I darn well remember from '99-'00, with someone on the other side of the cube wall at MOT talking up a company he knew very little about, a family friend saying I should get into LU, other recent grads constantly spewing about Cicso or other tech companies (fiber optics companies and fuel cells were all the rage), being invited into many new "investor groups" that were popping up since nearly every trade everyone was making was profitable, and me throwing too much money at a company I didn't know anything about that a friend had been in for a year and was making a lot of money in. "Most of the time, he said, when he told other guests that he was an investment manager they would make a few polite comments and then change the subject - or beat a retreat. Investment managers were not interesting. Once a bull market had been going for a while, though, Lynch said the typical response started to change. Now people would express some interest - and sometimes start to ask him for stock recommendations. Then, near the peak of the market, Lynch noticed that the responses started to change again. In the height of the boom everyone crowded around him - and instead of asking his advice, they started giving him stock recommendations of their own." ... "As for all the other booming “hot” stocks currently trading at 100 or 1,000 times annual cash flow — if there is any cash flow? Heaven help us. But in a bull market every investor is a genius — until they’re not." Personally, as much as the "fundamentals should matter, dang it" side of me wants some of these companies to get crushed, I don't think we're anywhere near a crazy overly bullish top, in the market or in AAPL. It's about time to have a 0-10% year, hopefully for the market and not for AAPL, and that will calm things down. But those peaky tops, that's when things are just a buzz, and that buzz can go on for a while. Given the general attitude (it wasn't that long ago that it could still be tough to convince the general populous that the economy was recovering, and had been for years), this seems more like only the middleish part of a very long but less peaky bull stretch. But it's fun to read the articles, and Lynch's quotes were spot on there.
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mark
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Post by mark on May 14, 2015 6:57:17 GMT -8
C'mon baby...use your dividend cash and buy more shares! That happened in my IRAs automatically. But in the taxable accounts, I keep the dividends to buy BCSs next time there's a dip (and to pay taxes of course).
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 14, 2015 7:56:00 GMT -8
Looking great today. Let's see if we can stay near highs, or if we'll give it all back again.
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CdnPhoto
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Post by CdnPhoto on May 14, 2015 8:03:35 GMT -8
EW guys looking for $128.43 as a target. Large call wall on the weeklies for tomorrow at $130. Any technicians or magicians or curmudgeons or comedians for that matter have anything to add wrt price action here? We touched the $128.43 price. Now what?
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Post by Lstream on May 14, 2015 8:17:33 GMT -8
Still find this commie China stuff totally offensive and unnecessary here.
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Post by BillH on May 14, 2015 8:32:40 GMT -8
Still find this commie China stuff totally offensive and unnecessary here. To say nothing of hugely inaccurate. Pin the date where you like but I'd say capitalism returned in 1978 when Deng Xiaoping took over. Damn, that was 37 years ago. :-o
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 14, 2015 8:46:19 GMT -8
C'mon baby...use your dividend cash and buy more shares! That happened in my IRAs automatically. But in the taxable accounts, I keep the dividends to buy BCSs next time there's a dip (and to pay taxes of course). FYI, often you can set up your IRA or Roth to allow option spreads (but not straight calls). It's a little strange since they don't normally let you have a margin account on a retirement account, but they'll give you pseudo margin, letting you do spreads, and also letting you play with the clearing period. My understanding is that if I sold shares today, I could go ahead and use the money to buy spreads or other shares today, without having to wait the 3 days for the sale of stock to clear. It's up to you. But for me, I've decided that it's worth it to make the mental switch of what my IRA is. Instead of it being the safety net to avoid eating dog food at 70 if I lost everything else, and thus in being a safety net maybe be a bit more careful in that account, I can just be that way in a different account or part of a different account, and (hopefully) put massive gains in the Roth where I don't have to worry about tax rules, and won't be taxed on it even if I tap it before normal retirement age (using a SEPP). That makes all of that "is the IRS going to start taxing spreads using the straddle rules like they say they are" stuff just disappear, though you can still worry if Roths will ever get screwed (retaxed) or if there will be means testing including the Roth or anything like that. There's always worries....but there's a lot less of them once more things are in tax advantaged accounts. Going with Lynch's comments of people just wishing they had bought even more, the other thing I wish is that I had put even more into my Roth or IRA. At 20 it seemed like it was better to have my money in an account I had full control of, and it probably was. But right now, with the help of where AAPL has brought our accounts and when always wondering if we'll at some point move back to the high taxed state of CA, it sure would be nice to have a larger percentage of our portfolio in a tax advantaged account
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 14, 2015 8:49:55 GMT -8
Still find this commie China stuff totally offensive and unnecessary here. My dealings with Mainland Chinese companies shows very little communist underpinnings. Yes, there is some socialist aspects of the government ownership/control of various industries, but, man, there are some free swinging markets over there....
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on May 14, 2015 9:32:30 GMT -8
That happened in my IRAs automatically. But in the taxable accounts, I keep the dividends to buy BCSs next time there's a dip (and to pay taxes of course). FYI, often you can set up your IRA or Roth to allow option spreads (but not straight calls). It's a little strange since they don't normally let you have a margin account on a retirement account, but they'll give you pseudo margin, letting you do spreads, and also letting you play with the clearing period. My understanding is that if I sold shares today, I could go ahead and use the money to buy spreads or other shares today, without having to wait the 3 days for the sale of stock to clear. It's up to you. But for me, I've decided that it's worth it to make the mental switch of what my IRA is. Instead of it being the safety net to avoid eating dog food at 70 if I lost everything else, and thus in being a safety net maybe be a bit more careful in that account, I can just be that way in a different account or part of a different account, and (hopefully) put massive gains in the Roth where I don't have to worry about tax rules, and won't be taxed on it even if I tap it before normal retirement age (using a SEPP). That makes all of that "is the IRS going to start taxing spreads using the straddle rules like they say they are" stuff just disappear, though you can still worry if Roths will ever get screwed (retaxed) or if there will be means testing including the Roth or anything like that. There's always worries....but there's a lot less of them once more things are in tax advantaged accounts. Going with Lynch's comments of people just wishing they had bought even more, the other thing I wish is that I had put even more into my Roth or IRA. At 20 it seemed like it was better to have my money in an account I had full control of, and it probably was. But right now, with the help of where AAPL has brought our accounts and when always wondering if we'll at some point move back to the high taxed state of CA, it sure would be nice to have a larger percentage of our portfolio in a tax advantaged account I do option spreads in my IRAs all the time. In the case of dividend reinvestment, it's just a matter of laziness - it was the default and I never called them to change it Right now, in my IRAs, I have Jan '16 80/100 BCSs and Jan '17 90/110 BCSs. And, yes, the Roth always gets the more risky positions, since the more risky positions have the higher expected gain. I, like many (most?) people, was a fool when I was 20. I didn't have a thought about retirement savings, nor did I much care for saving at all. I had school loans, I had a car loan, I had "going out" expenses, rent, etc that consumed most of my paycheck. Had I contributed to an IRA before seeing it hit my bank account, I wouldn't have spent it. Now, 30+ years later, I am a lot smarter and a lot more prudent with regards to saving and managing those savings. I would be much happier if I had more in the IRAs (regular and Roth), but the lack of prudence in earlier decades caused that not to be true. Such is life.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on May 14, 2015 10:08:45 GMT -8
I, like many (most?) people, was a fool when I was 20. I didn't have a thought about retirement savings, nor did I much care for saving at all. I had school loans, I had a car loan, I had "going out" expenses, rent, etc that consumed most of my paycheck. Had I contributed to an IRA before seeing it hit my bank account, I wouldn't have spent it. Now, 30+ years later, I am a lot smarter and a lot more prudent with regards to saving and managing those savings. I would be much happier if I had more in the IRAs (regular and Roth), but the lack of prudence in earlier decades caused that not to be true. Such is life. I packed away the savings at 22-30. At MOT right out of college someone gave a lunchtime presentation, showing how at 25 if you put away 2K/year for 10 years and then didn't save any more, you'd still be ahead at retirement time compared to someone who waited until 35. But back in college I had already figured out I could be a bajillionaire in short order if I just made a conservative 30% per year Luckily I decided that wasn't sustainable fairly quickly and was reading up on the retire early TMF board, but I did save 50% of my engineering salary straight out of college (after working all through college so I didn't have loans, and being fine with my older car). But in the "hindsight is 20/20" mindset, I just wish more was protected. It looks like about 17% of our portfolio not including real estate is in roths/IRAs/401k/etc, and thinking forward 10 years and having to deal with great tax years and bad tax years, I'd rather that was in the 50-80% range. But enough about that. Looks like AAPL is doing great today. A close above 128 would be good, and 2 more days bringing the stock up to 132 would likely set the support at 130 instead of ~126. And if this and next weeks options at 130 are enough to make a difference, it could still satisfy the "close pretty close to 130" while doing that. Say a close at 130.0x tomorrow, a rise to 134.5 by Wednesday intraday, a fall to 130 on Thursday, and then either closed positions or another close near 130 on next Friday. If options were the only thing that mattered, and IMO with volume shrinking they are getting a little more important, then the market makers would likely like to see that path. That's my guess.....which often means that it now won't happen. But I was ready for rain on our MTB ride last night and it instead snowed a little, so stranger thing have happened lately.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on May 14, 2015 11:16:28 GMT -8
Still find this commie China stuff totally offensive and unnecessary here. To say nothing of hugely inaccurate. Pin the date where you like but I'd say capitalism returned in 1978 when Deng Xiaoping took over. Damn, that was 37 years ago. :-o Offensive? What an utterly preposterous comment. The Communist Party is the sole ruling party in China. China is a billion miles away from free-market capitalism. China has a centrally-planned economy and press, and widespread censorship and intellectual property theft, and universal corruption among party leaders. There is no rule of law, other than the Party rules. ChiComs run the economy from above with protectionist measures like export taxes, subsidies to state-owned enterprises, anti-dumping barriers, and other tricks like capital controls to restrict trade, and to keep the oligarchy running and to keep COMMIE Party officials in power and wealth, while the progs toil away. Capitalism, LOL! You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means. The PRC is an evil regime, and anything that offends it is a good thing. BTW, a great article about Cuba that shows how easy it is for a Commie dictatorship to fake capitalism. Even I was occasionally fooled when I was in Havana. I had to remind myself, "oh yeah, this is state-owned."
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 14, 2015 11:35:22 GMT -8
To say nothing of hugely inaccurate. Pin the date where you like but I'd say capitalism returned in 1978 when Deng Xiaoping took over. Damn, that was 37 years ago. :-o Offensive? What an utterly preposterous comment. The Communist Party is the sole ruling party in China. China is a billion miles away from free-market capitalism. China has a centrally-planned economy and press, and widespread censorship and intellectual property theft, and universal corruption among party leaders. There is no rule of law, other than the Party rules. ChiComs run the economy from above with protectionist measures like export taxes, subsidies to state-owned enterprises, anti-dumping barriers, and other tricks like capital controls to restrict trade, and to keep the oligarchy running and to keep COMMIE Party officials in power and wealth, while the progs toil away. Capitalism, LOL! You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means. The PRC is an evil regime, and anything that offends it is a good thing. Lol...JD, your description of the Chinese economic system sounds very much like a Fox News tirade against the U.S. economy. Too much regulation, corruption, taxes, subsidies to (certain) enterprises, protectionism... How much business have you conducted over there? I just got back from another trip to the Far East. Sure, much to dislike about the remains of the Politburo...and sure, the elections don't count for much, but if you want grass roots capitalism on every street corner and back lot, WITH government looking the other way most of the time, here is your place. Cutthroat, unregulated, growth.....not a good thing in many ways, but this ain't your daddy's communist China. Innovation is strongly supported and encouraged...up to a point (just like in the good old USA). Buy, sell, trade, invest, win, lose, speculate..The State looks the other way in many ways much more than in the U.S. Not always in a good way, as in environmental controls, and man do they negotiate tough....but things get done. At least in my experience I see more similarities than differences these days. Kind of wild west...and don't eat the Hairy Crabs!
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Post by Lstream on May 14, 2015 11:35:31 GMT -8
To say nothing of hugely inaccurate. Pin the date where you like but I'd say capitalism returned in 1978 when Deng Xiaoping took over. Damn, that was 37 years ago. :-o Offensive? What an utterly preposterous comment. The Communist Party is the sole ruling party in China. China is a billion miles away from free-market capitalism. China has a centrally-planned economy and press, and widespread censorship and intellectual property theft, and universal corruption among party leaders. There is no rule of law, other than the Party rules. ChiComs run the economy from above with protectionist measures like export taxes, subsidies to state-owned enterprises, anti-dumping barriers, and other tricks like capital controls to restrict trade, and to keep the oligarchy running and to keep COMMIE Party officials in power and wealth, while the progs toil away. Capitalism, LOL! You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means. The PRC is an evil regime, and anything that offends it is a good thing. BTW, a great article about Cuba that shows how easy it is for a Commie dictatorship to fake capitalism. Even I was occasionally fooled when I was in Havana. I had to remind myself, "oh yeah, this is state-owned." We agree on most things but not this. This is dated, inflammatory bull-shit language. Nothing anyone says will convince me it has any place here.
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Post by BillH on May 14, 2015 12:02:20 GMT -8
"Capitalism, LOL! You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means."
Does Apple own the stores they're building? If so...,capitalism...,if not...,you're absolutely correct.
edit: On the other hand, if they're built by the state and leased...,
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 14, 2015 12:12:47 GMT -8
Back to AAPL....Nice close! Are the technicians happy? I'm always pleased to see a HOD right at 4:00. Get in now while the gettings good.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2015 12:18:50 GMT -8
I'm a traveling man, to a place where the the markets close by the time I wake up. If AAPL continues to trade like this, I'll take one for the team and not return home.
That's the best TA I know.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 14, 2015 12:28:12 GMT -8
I'm a traveling man, to a place where the the markets close by the time I wake up. If AAPL continues to trade like this, I'll take one for the team and not return home. That's the best TA I know. You have got to stop waking up at Noon local time..... Everybody who got their dividends reinvested automatically got a nice sweetener today. WWDC is starting to get some buzz, with the new music service in the crosshairs.....
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,183
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Post by JDSoCal on May 14, 2015 13:03:27 GMT -8
Offensive? What an utterly preposterous comment. The Communist Party is the sole ruling party in China. China is a billion miles away from free-market capitalism. China has a centrally-planned economy and press, and widespread censorship and intellectual property theft, and universal corruption among party leaders. There is no rule of law, other than the Party rules. ChiComs run the economy from above with protectionist measures like export taxes, subsidies to state-owned enterprises, anti-dumping barriers, and other tricks like capital controls to restrict trade, and to keep the oligarchy running and to keep COMMIE Party officials in power and wealth, while the progs toil away. Capitalism, LOL! You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means. The PRC is an evil regime, and anything that offends it is a good thing. Lol...JD, your description of the Chinese economic system sounds very much like a Fox News tirade against the U.S. economy. Too much regulation, corruption, taxes, subsidies to (certain) enterprises, protectionism... How much business have you conducted over there? I just got back from another trip to the Far East. Sure, much to dislike about the remains of the Politburo...and sure, the elections don't count for much, but if you want grass roots capitalism on every street corner and back lot, WITH government looking the other way most of the time, here is your place. Cutthroat, unregulated, growth.....not a good thing in many ways, but this ain't your daddy's communist China. Innovation is strongly supported and encouraged...up to a point (just like in the good old USA). Buy, sell, trade, invest, win, lose, speculate..The State looks the other way in many ways much more than in the U.S. Not always in a good way, as in environmental controls, and man do they negotiate tough....but things get done. At least in my experience I see more similarities than differences these days. Kind of wild west...and don't eat the Hairy Crabs! Well Red, you must watch a lot more Fox News than I do. My TV hasn't been on since earnings. I stopped watching the last 20 minutes of FNC's Special Report when the panelists all went full amnesty. You sound more like you read Tom Friedman, and share his admiration for China's get 'er done ways. My primary point was that the word "commie" is not offensive when the Communist Party is the sole ruling one. That's just PC nonsense. Since all communism has ever done is make a handful of party members and their friends rich, I think making purity arguments would be more productive in a whorehouse. But capitalism means free markets. China is not a free market. Capitalism is more than what happens on a street corner or in a factory. Party officials don't get rich selling chickens. The Chinese government dominates large industries like banking, power, and of course telecom through state-run conglomerates with self-serving policies (e.g., sorry, no competition allowed with state-run companies) and graft. The economy and even the currency is centrally planned and capital strictly controlled. Who do you think Tim Cook is really negotiating with when he goes over there? Some Chinese Jack Welch type? China Mobile is run by the state and he had to get approval from the top and it took years and lots of payoffs, er, concessions (nice loophole to the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act when the state runs both the business and its regulatory agency!) to get the iPhone on that network. UnionPay is run by PBOC, the central bank of China (that is state run too, not like our central banks). No chance Apple Pay gets adopted without PBOC approval and a big fat cut going to the Party higher ups. China's biggest real estate developer, a Commie Party member named Wang Jianlin, chairman of Dalian Wanda Group, jostles with Jack Ma to be the #1 or #2 richest guy in the country. You think he got all those state-sponsored deals during the huge real estate bubble on merit? I'm glad you can get crabs from a street vendor, rather than a prostitute, unlike in Cuba. And it must be nice for the little guy not to have a stifling regulatory state - or any intellectual property enforcement when selling fake iPhones or pirated Hollywood movies. Letting people sell chickens is cheaper than directly sending the people checks to quell domestic unrest. Until an American baby dies from tainted formula, at least, and then they are executed because that's bad PR. Or until an executive tries to take his money out of China and invest it elsewhere. When US corporations are hacked and their trade secrets and intellectual property are stolen by the Chinese government, that's not capitalism. It's mercantilism. An oligarchy, run by party cronies and apparatchiks. But hey, if you can negotiate that environment and make some money, by all means. Just be careful what you call it.
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platon
Member
"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
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Post by platon on May 14, 2015 13:12:54 GMT -8
The people and to some degree the markets and enterprise may long for a free society but the government is as JD described and that is not BS, and stating a fact that affects the performance of AAPL in that country is acceptable to me. The communists in China will prove JD's point if any attempt is made at displacing them because their military will back them. Communism in China is not going away soon. They are moving to Capitalism at the same rate we are moving to socialism and because of that their economy may eventually surpass ours. I don't think calling a spade a spade is bad even here because it does affect Apple's business in that country. Apple operates in China at the whim of the communist Chinese government. To think otherwise is ridiculous. An example of how communism works over in that part of the world. www.wsj.com/articles/north-korean-defense-minister-executed-by-anti-aircraft-fire-south-says-1431483504"North Korea’s purges should be viewed as a way to “create an atmosphere of terror” to consolidate Mr. Kim’s grip on power, Mr. Lim added." Hopefully China has moved passed this level but they do let the little terrorist continue to exist.
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Post by tuffett on May 14, 2015 13:15:03 GMT -8
IP law anywhere in the world is garbage. Just more overt in China. Has Samsung even paid Apple the paltry $900M yet? Because that was some blatant IP theft that made them tens of billions, and counting.
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Post by Lstream on May 14, 2015 13:46:54 GMT -8
Deleted - don't feel like stirring the pot any more.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 14, 2015 13:57:46 GMT -8
O.k....let's agree that Communists, Socialists, Capitalists, Nihilists, Totalitarians, Social Democrats and Fascists all like Apple products, given a choice!
I'm intrigued by today's market action. I kept expecting the infamous fade in the last hour, as there were plenty of profits to take. But not today. Maybe Mercel being out of the Country and Mad Max (Fester) leaving the stock really are the catalysts we need. Hmmmm.
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