JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on May 15, 2015 14:13:52 GMT -8
Thought I'd violate my own guidelines and open the bar early. Cheers to the longs - both those longs who will drive beat up cars all their life and die rich, and those like myself, whose check to the cemetery will bounce.
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Post by mace on May 15, 2015 15:26:35 GMT -8
Today, AAPL closed below the huge call walls (OI = $104k) at $130. Above max pain of $127, so should be considered bullish.
Next week, also a huge call walls (OI = 80k) at $130. Max pain is $130. So, would AAPL close above or below $130 on OE Friday?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2015 16:24:45 GMT -8
Today, AAPL closed below the huge call walls (OI = $104k) at $130. Above max pain of $127, so should be considered bullish. Next week, also a huge call walls (OI = 80k) at $130. Max pain is $130. So, would AAPL close above or below $130 on OE Friday? Today's close on monthlies was bullish, assisted by the overall market. Next week's 80k of 130k call contracts is also offset by 60k of puts. Nonetheless, the pattern of AAPL with this level of short-term open interest is clear and most option players will likely feel pain of the financial kind. I didn't see anything from Uncle Carl (correct me if I'm wrong), and I'm glad he appears to have delayed his AAPL update until after the monthlies expired. Cheers to AAPL longs.
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Post by redinaustin on May 16, 2015 3:01:34 GMT -8
Just something amazing to ponder which we all now take for granted. Thanks Steve
@pmarca: How on earth did I ever live without a glowing pane of glass in my hand containing the sum total of all human knowledge and experience?
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Post by rezonate on May 16, 2015 3:54:47 GMT -8
The "waxing frugal-sophical" threads the past couple days have really been fun. In 2007 the military moved us and I cashed out most AAPL for a down payment. Saw the writing on the wall, but needed a house, didn't want to rent. Fast forward and we will "sell" the place (transfer to somebody else's bank) in a couple of weeks, all told about $100,000 loss. Won't go back and calculate actual cost after interest deduction on taxes, depreciation, etc. And I also won't go back and calculate the other side of "if I had just kept all my AAPL". We have other investments and will be fine on the small military pension. But I'm still excited to keep dropping every spare dollar on AAPL. TC and company have signaled commitment to supporting the public side of the company with buybacks and dividends. We can debate which might be better, but here we are with reality - the fruit company isn't going anywhere, for a long time. The Menlo Park of the 21st century. I'm in. OK, two weeks with the Apple Watch. Mostly an enabling device. Siri is uncanny good. Directions with haptics - game changer. Activity tracker makes hidden movement data explicit, and therefore actionable. I'm interested to see how large health data files are handled in out-years: the watch is logging a *lot* of data. Some nit picks. - The daily stand goal seems to be learning, but often gets it wrong. I'm on my feet a lot, all day. - I want a glance for 1) Remote App and 2) Messages App - both native apps with no easy shortcut. - The 'glances' user interface (UI) is a hot mess. Swipe up, then swipe/swipe/swipe/swipe... just to see something. It would be better to swipe up to see "my big 9", then tap one. - The "complications" are limited, but I can see the round app buttons becoming complications at some point. Basically, link to any app as a complication. Add one slider for each app: "make watchface complication". - Health data visualization is way limited (read: sux). Maybe somebody has a great app suggestion to pull from HealthKit and plot health data? - The thing really needs localization. "Hey Siri, I'm at work" switches to "work" settings: sounds, haptics, network, etc. "Hey Siri, I'm driving" switches to those settings. "Hey Siri, I'm in a meeting" or "in class" or "at the gym" - etc. Even better, localization that "learns" where you are, and offers to switch when you get there (or a setting to "automatically adjust settings based on my location". - silver and black really doesn't go with my wardrobe. Need gold/brown.
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Post by ericinaustin on May 16, 2015 8:02:12 GMT -8
Cult of Mac had a great article on Tim's visit to China. He's turning into a rock star there. I still think almost everyone that pontificates on Apple is vastly underestimating the coming growth in China. When ever some pundit uses that phrase " law of large numbers" incorrectly , I always think " you want to talk about large numbers? Look at the number of Chinese and southeast Asians entering the middle class in the next ten years!"
Barring some macro train wreck with the world economy or Apple, I still cannot find a stock that has the low value and potential of this company. It just seems so obvious to me.
Eric in Austin
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Post by rickag on May 16, 2015 8:43:03 GMT -8
The "waxing frugal-sophical" threads the past couple days have really been fun. In 2007 the military moved us and I cashed out most AAPL for a down payment. Saw the writing on the wall, but needed a house, didn't want to rent. Fast forward and we will "sell" the place (transfer to somebody else's bank) in a couple of weeks, all told about $100,000 loss. Won't go back and calculate actual cost after interest deduction on taxes, depreciation, etc. And I also won't go back and calculate the other side of "if I had just kept all my AAPL". We have other investments and will be fine on the small military pension. But I'm still excited to keep dropping every spare dollar on AAPL. TC and company have signaled commitment to supporting the public side of the company with buybacks and dividends. We can debate which might be better, but here we are with reality - the fruit company isn't going anywhere, for a long time. The Menlo Park of the 21st century. I'm in. OK, two weeks with the Apple Watch. Mostly an enabling device. Siri is uncanny good. Directions with haptics - game changer. Activity tracker makes hidden movement data explicit, and therefore actionable. I'm interested to see how large health data files are handled in out-years: the watch is logging a *lot* of data. Some nit picks. - The daily stand goal seems to be learning, but often gets it wrong. I'm on my feet a lot, all day. - I want a glance for 1) Remote App and 2) Messages App - both native apps with no easy shortcut. - The 'glances' user interface (UI) is a hot mess. Swipe up, then swipe/swipe/swipe/swipe... just to see something. It would be better to swipe up to see "my big 9", then tap one. - The "complications" are limited, but I can see the round app buttons becoming complications at some point. Basically, link to any app as a complication. Add one slider for each app: "make watchface complication". - Health data visualization is way limited (read: sux). Maybe somebody has a great app suggestion to pull from HealthKit and plot health data? - The thing really needs localization. "Hey Siri, I'm at work" switches to "work" settings: sounds, haptics, network, etc. "Hey Siri, I'm driving" switches to those settings. "Hey Siri, I'm in a meeting" or "in class" or "at the gym" - etc. Even better, localization that "learns" where you are, and offers to switch when you get there (or a setting to "automatically adjust settings based on my location". - silver and black really doesn't go with my wardrobe. Need gold/brown. Send an email to Tim, I bet he would like the localization idea, if they're not already working on it. And thank you for your service.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on May 16, 2015 12:13:47 GMT -8
Barring some macro train wreck with the world economy or Apple, I still cannot find a stock that has the low value and potential of this company. It just seems so obvious to me. And that's what almost cost us with the last dive. I bought a few decent sized chunks of shares on the way down, at about $605, on margin of course. It was the "this is a no brainer, and Apple is paying out about the same interest rate I'll be paying to borrow". Luckily it didn't do us in, but I did have to eye the number where we'd get a margin call. I think it was down at $360 or so, so it got a little too close for comfort.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on May 16, 2015 12:45:54 GMT -8
BTW, since we obviously have a few drinkers here, I wanted to share a recent revelation. Since high school, I've always had horrendous hangovers, sometimes even from a night of light-moderate drinking. Headache, nausea, just the worst. Having drinks with food and/or sugary things (i.e., grapefruit juice and vodka) seemed to help a little, but only slightly. But I recently discovered something called N-Acetyl Cysteine. It's a cheap amino acid supplement that helps the liver process ETOH and its metabolites, like the dreaded acetaldehyde (hangover enemy #1), by enhancing glutathione production. Anyway, I'm no chemist, but I am a drinker, and this stuff really works for me after some real-world research. I take one pill before drinking, one after, right before bed, and no hangover! No BS, this stuff is miraculous. Supposedly if you take it with B1, it works even better. They did tests on rats back in the 70's and gave them lethal doses of acetaldehyde, and NAC + B1 yielded 100% survival rates. Poor control rats literally died of hangovers and didn't even get to get drunk. Sucks to be a rat! OBTW, in case you think this snake oil, N-Acetyl Cysteine is the standard treatment for acetaminophen overdose in US ER's.
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Post by Luckychoices on May 16, 2015 15:45:29 GMT -8
... Well, my family moved to San Jose in 1957 when I was 14 so I remember the fruit trees very well. As far as being near the start of the personal computer industry, you may not have enjoyed using an Apple II+ hooked up to your television. ... Not enjoy an Apple II+? Impossible! Forgive me for interjecting this totally off topic reply to Apple II+'s comment from Thursday on this very slow Saturday afternoon in the forum. I purchased an Apple II+ for my sons in 1980 from a friend that worked at Apple Computer, Inc. in Cupertino. My boys were 7 and 9 years of age and when they were with me (shared custody with their mom) they played with it whenever they had a chance. Since we had no monitor and had to connect it to a television, I reasoned that learning to use a computer was better for them than watching television. They played several basic (very basic) video games but one of their favorites was a cave adventure game called Adventure, IIRC. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossal_Cave_AdventureThe game had fantasy elements like an axe throwing elf and a troll and allowed various commands you could type while trying to navigate a cave and discover treasure. Since there were no graphics, you’d type a phrase that you’d hope would work and then words would appear on the screen to let you know whether or not you were successful. For Example:===========Memorable words and phrases Xyzzy[edit] Main article: Xyzzy (magic word) "Xyzzy" is a magic word that teleports the player between two locations ("inside building" and the "debris room"). Entering the command from other locations produces the disappointing response "Nothing happens." As an in-joke, many later computer programs (not only games but also applications) include a hidden "xyzzy" command – the results of which range from the humorous to the straightforward.[15] Explanations of the origin and meaning of the term are similarly wide-ranging, but Crowther has said "I made it up out of whole cloth just for the game", and "I was considering working for XEROX at the time, which probably suggested starting with an X."[2] Maze of twisty little passages[edit] "You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike" is a memorable line from the game, popular in hacker culture (where "passages" may be replaced with a different word, as the situation warrants). This phrase came to signify a situation when whatever action is taken does not change the result.[citation needed] The line was used by Nick Montfort in the title for his book Twisty Little Passages: An Approach To Interactive Fiction, a history of the interactive fiction genre.[2][3] The "all alike" maze was created by Crowther; Woods created a second maze, described as "all different".[2] In the "all different" maze, the player's current location is described in eleven different ways with each description providing a clue as to available exits from that particular point (e.g., "little maze of twisting passages" may have an exit north, while "maze of little twisty passages" may have exits north and south): Little maze of twisting passages Little maze of twisty passages Little twisty maze of passages Maze of little twisting passages Maze of little twisty passages Maze of twisting little passages Maze of twisty little passages Twisting little maze of passages Twisting maze of little passages Twisty little maze of passages Twisty maze of little passages Other lines from the game are: Rubbing the electric lamp is not particularly rewarding. Anyway, nothing exciting happens. A huge green fierce snake bars the way!(When trying to kill the snake, a dragon, or such:) With what? Your bare hands?(When trying to kill a dragon, and answering "yes" to the above reply:) Congratulations! You have just vanquished a dragon with your bare hands! (Unbelievable, isn't it?)(When trying to kill the bear:) With what? Your bare hands? Against *his* bear hands??(If you try to feed the bird:) It's not hungry (it's merely pinin' for the fjords). – a reference to Monty Python's Dead Parrot sketch (If you hit the bear after feeding it:) The bear is confused; he only wants to be your friend.The game responds to a frustrated player's swearing with Watch it! and to commands to eat inappropriate things (e.g., the bird, the snake) with I think I just lost my appetite.A sign posted on the bridge reads, "Stop! Pay troll!" (If you type the word blast:) Blasting requires dynamite==================================Anyway, take my word for it…the game could be very frustrating. Especially for a person in their late thirties who couldn’t type, except with his two forefingers. So one night, after I got my kids to bed, I decided to improve my Adventure skills, without the normal, mocking harassment from my boys, and positioned myself in front of the keyboard with grim determination. I made some progress past were I would normally be stopped in the cave, but a series of unsuccessful attempts to make any further progress, and the late hour, pushed me to vent my frustration by typing, “F*&$k You” with the keyboard. Almost instantly, these words appeared on the screen, “Your place or mine? I laughed out loud. Several times. I couldn’t share that experience with my boys for years after it happened but, at that moment, I gained much respect for game programers who could anticipate such unexpected inputs from the players. So yes, Apple II+, I did enjoy the Apple II+.
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Post by nwjade on May 16, 2015 16:50:35 GMT -8
Not enjoy an Apple II+? Impossible! Forgive me for interjecting this totally off topic reply to Apple II+'s comment from Thursday on this very slow Saturday afternoon in the forum. I purchased an Apple II+ for my sons in 1980 from a friend that worked at Apple Computer, Inc. in Cupertino. My boys were 7 and 9 years of age and when they were with me (shared custody with their mom) they played with it whenever they had a chance. Since we had no monitor and had to connect it to a television, I reasoned that learning to use a computer was better for them than watching television. They played several basic (very basic) video games but one of their favorites was a cave adventure game called Adventure, IIRC. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossal_Cave_AdventureThe game had fantasy elements like an axe throwing elf and a troll and allowed various commands you could type while trying to navigate a cave and discover treasure. Since there were no graphics, you’d type a phrase that you’d hope would work and then words would appear on the screen to let you know whether or not you were successful. For Example:===========Memorable words and phrases Xyzzy[edit] Main article: Xyzzy (magic word) "Xyzzy" is a magic word that teleports the player between two locations ("inside building" and the "debris room"). Entering the command from other locations produces the disappointing response "Nothing happens." As an in-joke, many later computer programs (not only games but also applications) include a hidden "xyzzy" command – the results of which range from the humorous to the straightforward.[15] Explanations of the origin and meaning of the term are similarly wide-ranging, but Crowther has said "I made it up out of whole cloth just for the game", and "I was considering working for XEROX at the time, which probably suggested starting with an X."[2] Maze of twisty little passages[edit] "You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike" is a memorable line from the game, popular in hacker culture (where "passages" may be replaced with a different word, as the situation warrants). This phrase came to signify a situation when whatever action is taken does not change the result.[citation needed] The line was used by Nick Montfort in the title for his book Twisty Little Passages: An Approach To Interactive Fiction, a history of the interactive fiction genre.[2][3] The "all alike" maze was created by Crowther; Woods created a second maze, described as "all different".[2] In the "all different" maze, the player's current location is described in eleven different ways with each description providing a clue as to available exits from that particular point (e.g., "little maze of twisting passages" may have an exit north, while "maze of little twisty passages" may have exits north and south): Little maze of twisting passages Little maze of twisty passages Little twisty maze of passages Maze of little twisting passages Maze of little twisty passages Maze of twisting little passages Maze of twisty little passages Twisting little maze of passages Twisting maze of little passages Twisty little maze of passages Twisty maze of little passages Other lines from the game are: Rubbing the electric lamp is not particularly rewarding. Anyway, nothing exciting happens. A huge green fierce snake bars the way!(When trying to kill the snake, a dragon, or such:) With what? Your bare hands?(When trying to kill a dragon, and answering "yes" to the above reply:) Congratulations! You have just vanquished a dragon with your bare hands! (Unbelievable, isn't it?)(When trying to kill the bear:) With what? Your bare hands? Against *his* bear hands??(If you try to feed the bird:) It's not hungry (it's merely pinin' for the fjords). – a reference to Monty Python's Dead Parrot sketch (If you hit the bear after feeding it:) The bear is confused; he only wants to be your friend.The game responds to a frustrated player's swearing with Watch it! and to commands to eat inappropriate things (e.g., the bird, the snake) with I think I just lost my appetite.A sign posted on the bridge reads, "Stop! Pay troll!" (If you type the word blast:) Blasting requires dynamite==================================Anyway, take my word for it…the game could be very frustrating. Especially for a person in their late thirties who couldn’t type, except with his two forefingers. So one night, after I got my kids to bed, I decided to improve my Adventure skills, without the normal, mocking harassment from my boys, and positioned myself in front of the keyboard with grim determination. I made some progress past were I would normally be stopped in the cave, but a series of unsuccessful attempts to make any further progress, and the late hour, pushed me to vent my frustration by typing, “F*&$k You” with the keyboard. Almost instantly, these words appeared on the screen, “Your place or mine? I laughed out loud. Several times. I couldn’t share that experience with my boys for years after it happened but, at that moment, I gained much respect for game programers who could anticipate such unexpected inputs from the players. So yes, Apple II+, I did enjoy the Apple II+. Your story reminded me of my first job in computer operations, before going on to programming, working as a Burroughs main frame console operator. If you typed in SLEW ANY DRAGONS LATELY it would reply NONE. Even MCP programmers had fun building that stuff in. I learned of it from a Burroughs tech guy. This was back in the 1970's.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 17, 2015 7:06:04 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on May 17, 2015 8:04:51 GMT -8
I spent many hours in Colossal Cave back in 1979. I was building automated sawmill equipment using a PDP11-23 and a version of the game was available on it. Most of the workers had never seen a computer before. I introduced them to the game as a way to overcome their fear of computers. I found that they were much more willing to interact with the machine when the paradigm was "try something and see if it works" rather than "You made a mistake"
Copies of the game are available free online and it is still fun to play after all these. BTW, if you find the beach below the dam, keep digging!
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Post by Luckychoices on May 17, 2015 9:18:50 GMT -8
I spent many hours in Colossal Cave back in 1979. I was building automated sawmill equipment using a PDP11-23 and a version of the game was available on it. Most of the workers had never seen a computer before. I introduced them to the game as a way to overcome their fear of computers. I found that they were much more willing to interact with the machine when the paradigm was "try something and see if it works" rather than "You made a mistake" Copies of the game are available free online and it is still fun to play after all these. BTW, if you find the beach below the dam, keep digging! There's a beach?!?
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Post by infohunter on May 17, 2015 10:39:47 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on May 17, 2015 12:18:08 GMT -8
Thanks, 4aapl! Actually, if you go to "View this member's recent posts" for me and go back to one posted Oct 7, 2012 named "Intros", you'll see how my wife and I wandered into investing in AAPL. And you'll see why I credit luck for playing such a big part of our investment direction. Actually that sounds very close to what I did. While my first individual stock investment was $5k into AAPL in Jan '98, that was the time that everything was going up, and many headed up more than AAPL, including several tech companies that went up 10x in one year. I didn't own them, but everything was on the upswing as I'm sure you remember. So I owned a few other things, picking up AMD after interviewing with them and having the employees so excited because they just got the K6 ramped up (forget if that was public knowledge or not, and if that was the Austin site or Santa Clara, since I interviewed at both). I had some 3com, expecting to make a good gain on the spinoff of palm. Starbucks. I think most others were post crash. Then late 2000 hit. I had picked up the margin habit after a few months of investing, and that was great while things were going up.... Like you, my account shrank by a mid-6 figure level. Being on margin, I fought to hold onto some of my AAPL shares, selling just about everything else. And getting my first taste of options, though that time as a way to carry forward a loss while I moved back to CA. After that, getting good money as a contractor and eventually getting ESPP shares at AAPL, I saved a lot and plowed it in. At some point I started using more options, though I had other great companies like Pixar there for a while. But I still used margin to some extent, and increased options purchases to large amounts. At some point, after being crushed (I've had 85% declines a few times) yet again due to continued risky margin/option habits, I ended up selling just about everything else and being a "just AAPL" portfolio. But along the way we've bought a couple houses in cash, and still have a few 401k plans in other things here and there, so we have some safety nets. That said, we're 30+ years your junior, with 3 young kids, so we have a few more responsibilities to look forward to. I don't want to get crushed again, and wouldn't want to ever start from scratch again. I hear that about not wanting to be crushed. But you're much more willing to take chances (options, margin) than I would be if I were your age. And at my age, I'm especially risk-adverse (i.e., a coward) when it comes to losing money, which is why I'm in no danger of losing any money at all in Vegas or by using options or margin, for that matter. Heck, the financial "experts" would have long ago put me in bonds or some other such "safe" investment. But being 100% invested in Apple Common, even at my age, doesn't seem risky to me at all. Our portfolio has seen several days over the years when it's dropped 500K+ in one day (bummer) and several when it's been up $500K+ in one day (nice) but neither condition lasted for long. Overall, it's just been a steady upward increase, year after year. Well, except for 2008-2009 & 2012-2013. Which is why I don't understand the willingness of many in the forum to use options instead of just buying AAPL common. Granted, I haven't taken the time to understand options but I believe one of the draws is to increase the size of one's return while decreasing the money needed to invest for those returns. Bigger possible gains, possibly bigger losses. However for a large number of the folks on this forum, I wonder what's the hurry? I would have loved to have bought AAPL in my 30's or 40's for the growth AND the dividend. We didn't really focus on buying AAPL until I was in my late 50's. As my father used to say, I was "Too soon old, too late smart." I can understand why you would use what your grandmother did as an example of what not to do. I'm a big believer of spreadsheets and charts and one of my favorites since I retired is the one I use to track the value of our AAPL portfolio. I retired on May 19, 2008 so the 7th year anniversary is this coming Tuesday. As you can see, despite the down years of 2009 and 2013, each year of retirement has seen a pretty substantial increase in our AAPL stock. And of course, Apple beginning to pay quarterly dividends again in August of 2012 just added a very nice bonus. If I lost confidence in Apple Inc., or if I were to see the stock plateau, I wouldn't hesitate to look to diversify. But if the trend continues, as I believe it will, I can't think of another stock in which I'd invest. Which would give me the long term confidence I have in AAPL? Many stocks are now growing more rapidly, but I'd want more than rapid growth. Even though Apple Inc's fundamentals are being underweighted or even ignored by WS, I'd need to really believe in the company to invest in the stock. Thanks for sharing your life circumstances as well as your investing history and reasoning, 4aapl! I really enjoy learning more about the forum members and how they came to invest in AAPL. Best of luck to you (and all of us) and see you in in Cupertino in February of 2016!!
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Post by infohunter on May 17, 2015 12:39:19 GMT -8
Timely conversation for me Luckychoices thanks for contributing to the forum. I'm 56 years old and I am thinking of retiring later this year. I started investing in Apple back in 2007. Last week I talked with a financial planner who is advising me to roll my current IRA which is 80% in Apple stock into an index annuity. Guaranteed income per month sounds nice but not sure I want to sell my Apple stock.
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Post by tuffett on May 17, 2015 15:04:02 GMT -8
Options have so much variation that they cannot be described one way or another. Using options has allowed me to profit far more than I would have been able to just holding common shares. And I'm not talking about just gambling with calls. While definitely riskier than common shares, options can leverage your investment while maintaining a reasonable risk profile.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on May 17, 2015 15:21:17 GMT -8
I hear that about not wanting to be crushed. But you're much more willing to take chances (options, margin) than I would be if I were your age. And at my age, I'm especially risk-adverse (i.e., a coward) when it comes to losing money, which is why I'm in no danger of losing any money at all in Vegas or by using options or margin, for that matter. Thanks for the reply. I'm actually somewhat risk-adverse in certain things. With investing, it's a little different at times, but part of is is that my wife and I both have degrees in Chemical Engineering, and given the job market in the Bay Area just a few hours away there's always that safety net where I feel I could find a job within a week. It would be even better if I had a software eng degree from Stanford, but as it is I've had very few interviews were I wasn't offered a job. Margin and options are interesting things, and you tend to get into them when you're uber bullish like your 100% AAPL portfolio. Quickly it becomes "I only see AAPL going up from here, so why not invest 150% instead of just 100% in the stock". Same with options, "why not gain 300% per year instead of a measly 50%". The problem is if you're too invested with them when a downturn strikes, and don't have a plan to get out of them at a certain level. With straight stock, you always have the plan that with a good company that makes it through the downturn, just don't sell out at the bottom. You just buy and hold. And that's great and works well. But if you add margin or options in sizable amounts, you really can't still with that plan anymore. That's been the crux of the problem for me, and I think for a lot of people. As for holding too much in one stock, and then continuing, I think you just have to evaluate it a few times per year and make sure it still fits your plan, instead of just throwing it into an "untouchables" list. It sounded like my grandma put it as an untouchable, but she's not the only one. On the Retire Early board on TMF, there were quite a few people who had done that, making a mint off of a high flying tech stock, and then not being able to sell it. One such one was Dell, which made Intercst his retirement, and continued to make him money, until it didn't. I've heard of that happening to others who owned Cisco or things like that. All I'm saying is that you need to pay attention, and not forget to be unbiased. As we've seen with AAPL, it's not always just logical interpretation of the fundamentals. Sometimes, perhaps even often, the stock moves for illogical reasons. I can truthfully say that I wouldn't be completely surprised that if Apple's increasing earnings cut from 40% (this was from EPS, whereas some articles say it's just a 33% increase since that's what the total increase was. The buyback made up the difference, so saying 33% discounts the buyback) to 20%, that their P/E would get knocked down to 12. That could cause a 20% drop even with increasing earnings. That's just the illogical way that AAPL sometimes moves. But being all stock, you can ride it out as long as Apple continues. From what I've seen, I imagine it will for a while. For me, there was a time when I was near my limit on margin, and when I had over half my portfolio in options. These days, I have a little margin, and a little options, but it's a whole different level. I'm maybe using 15-20% of the money they'll let me borrow. And for options, it's currently something like 2-3% of my portfolio, so nearly nothing by my past standards. Neither of those is enough to put us in pain if AAPL was to drop 50% tomorrow....though we'd sure look for ways to buy more before it recovered. I don't think our mindsets are too far off from each other right now. But I'll admit that even though they have been good safety nets, when looking at portfolio values it's easy to wish I hadn't bought these houses. That opportunity cost in hindsight is insane, just like one of those comparisons of what a Mac SE would be worth if the money had been put in stock instead.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 17, 2015 16:16:09 GMT -8
I'm enjoying this Ides of May discussion about goals, margin, risk tolerance and gaming!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 17, 2015 16:18:20 GMT -8
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