Since84
Moderator
To infinity and beyond!
Posts: 3,933
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Post by Since84 on May 23, 2015 2:34:11 GMT -8
Hmmm. No one opened a weekend thread so here goes. Over course, I expect some robust discussion since we have three whole days to fill. Now, about that meteor JD...
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macorange
Member
My actual dog is cuter.
Posts: 60
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Post by macorange on May 23, 2015 5:53:23 GMT -8
In the end, it's always greed vs fear that moves a stock.
In terms of greed, Apple's potential growth still looks strong. Just ask Uncle Carl.
But it's the lack of things to fear now that is extraordinary. Few people now think that the iPhone is going to be "killed" by the next Android wonder. Few people now think Apple can't innovate under Cook. Fear is further allayed by the low PE.
In the absence of a general market meltdown, this stock goes higher.
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Post by rezonate on May 23, 2015 9:01:57 GMT -8
Might be time for some wild conjecture, leading in to WWDC. No iPod updates in a long time. Might they drop a Beats subscription, with MVNO streaming data to verified devices (based on IMEIs)? Better Bluetooth headphones. Stacks of home kit devices & apps. Update on Cupertino Caldera (new HQ). Mac Pro upgrades and a 5k Thunderbolt 2 display.
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Post by BillH on May 23, 2015 9:59:47 GMT -8
Might be time for some wild conjecture, leading in to WWDC. No iPod updates in a long time. Might they drop a Beats subscription, with MVNO streaming data to verified devices (based on IMEIs)? Better Bluetooth headphones. Stacks of home kit devices & apps. Update on Cupertino Caldera (new HQ). Mac Pro upgrades and a 5k Thunderbolt 2 display. I'm sure we'll get the usual updates but "the epicenter of change" is one of the more powerful (and targeted) tag lines they've had for WWDC. My guess is that it's all going to be focused on that little box you attach to the TV. It's interesting to me that Apple chose now to blow up speculation of a physical TV. (assuming the WSJ article was planted) Of all the products that Apple might someday make I can't think of anything more inevitable than displays you hang on your wall or embed in some similar fashion. The AppleTV might be a single chip by then along with many others but who really wants the wires or the box? They'll use the intervening product(s) to build enough marketshare to achieve some kind of critical mass but..,inevitable.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 23, 2015 10:07:23 GMT -8
Nothing says epicenter (aside from earthquakes anyway) like a new digital hub.
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Post by artman1033 on May 23, 2015 10:17:08 GMT -8
"Now, Apple’s priorities have changed. Rather than make really great products that are mostly thin, they now make really thin products that are mostly great." www.marco.org/2015/05/19/mistake-one
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on May 23, 2015 11:19:48 GMT -8
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Post by BillH on May 23, 2015 11:25:26 GMT -8
"Now, Apple’s priorities have changed. Rather than make really great products that are mostly thin, they now make really thin products that are mostly great." www.marco.org/2015/05/19/mistake-oneI wouldn't feed the troll. YMMV.
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Post by artman1033 on May 23, 2015 11:41:08 GMT -8
"Now, Apple’s priorities have changed. Rather than make really great products that are mostly thin, they now make really thin products that are mostly great." www.marco.org/2015/05/19/mistake-oneI wouldn't feed the troll. YMMV. MARCO ARMENT IS NOT A TROLL! Arment worked as lead developer and chief technology officer (CTO) of the Tumblr microblogging platform and social networking website from its inception in February 2007 until September 2010,[2][3][4] when he left to concentrate fully on Instapaper,[5][6][7] a tool for saving web pages to read later. Arment announced on April 25, 2013, that he had sold the controlling interest in Instapaper to Betaworks. Between November 2010 and December 2012, Arment hosted a podcast, Build and Analyze, with Dan Benjamin on 5by5 Studios. More recently, he has hosted two podcasts, Neutral and Accidental Tech Podcast, with John Siracusa and Casey Liss. In October 2012, Arment released The Magazine, an electronic, biweekly publication. In May 2013, one month after the sale of Instapaper, Arment announced he was selling The Magazine to Glenn Fleishman, its editor. In July 2014, Arment released Overcast, a podcast application for iPhone. The application had been in development since the fall of 2012, and was first publicly announced at the XOXO Festival in October 2013. His blog, which he began in December 2006, averages over 500,000 page views per month as of July 2014. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marco_Arment
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Post by BillH on May 23, 2015 11:53:31 GMT -8
I wouldn't feed the troll. YMMV. MARCO ARMENT IS NOT A TROLL! His blog, which he began in December 2006, averages over 500,000 page views per month as of July 2014. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marco_ArmentI never said he wasn't good at it. He's a brilliant guy no doubt but he's been writing this kind of stuff for as long as I can remember. He could have taken the MacBook back and bought the product more suited to his needs without writing about it but no. He had to slip in the that they no longer are interested in making great products. Troll may or may not be the right word for him but trolling for hits most certainly describes what he's up to.
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Post by artman1033 on May 23, 2015 11:56:04 GMT -8
I never said he wasn't good at it. He's a brilliant guy no doubt but he's been writing this kind of stuff for as long as I can remember. He could have taken the MacBook back and bought the product more suited to his needs without writing about it but no. He had to slip in the that they no longer are interested in making great products. Troll may or may not be the right word for him but trolling for hits most certainly describes what he's up to. I don't think he is a troll. He is an fan. Fans can disagree with .
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on May 23, 2015 12:17:14 GMT -8
Sorry, but "men" with little rat ewok-looking dogs have no credibility in matters of taste.
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Post by BillH on May 23, 2015 12:18:27 GMT -8
I never said he wasn't good at it. He's a brilliant guy no doubt but he's been writing this kind of stuff for as long as I can remember. He could have taken the MacBook back and bought the product more suited to his needs without writing about it but no. He had to slip in the that they no longer are interested in making great products. Troll may or may not be the right word for him but trolling for hits most certainly describes what he's up to. I don't think he is a troll. He is an fan. Fans can disagree with . Of course they can. I'm not happy with them on a pretty continual basis as they keep changing how their software works for the most marginal of gains. As I sit here I'm staring at the micro iTunes window I place in the upper left of the screen. If I want to change my programming I have to expand the view. To do that you hit an "x" of all things. Doesn't get much dumber than that imo. However, just last January Marco was waxing poetic about how stupendously great Apple hardware is but they had lost the "functional high ground" in software and cared more about marketing than they do about shipping a quality software product. I believe he said it created a "firestorm" of response. Just how smart he is may be best shown by his response to that firestorm. I can't blame the opportunists but I can call them opportunists is something I find particularly amusing. He basically apologizes for his click baiting but is more than happy to do it again with your linked article.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on May 23, 2015 12:23:20 GMT -8
Around and around we go.
Let Marco be a successful software developer or whatever, while li'l ol' me refuses to link to his quite obvious made-you-click click-bait pieces.
The Artist Formerly Known as Apple Computer - Selling Out Since iPhone 3G...and 4...and 4S...and 5...and 5S...and 6... (see what I did there?)
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on May 23, 2015 12:27:46 GMT -8
Well, let's suppose that Apple really does revolutionize TV at WWDC. Suppose they announce an iTunes like interface that for $69 makes cable obsolete and sends Comcast to the same dustbin of history as Napster. Further suppose that this almost guarantees a multi-billion dollar revenue stream. How badly do you think that will hurt the stock?
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Post by infohunter on May 23, 2015 14:38:05 GMT -8
If you want to send Comcast to the dustbin hope for a subscription based ESPN live on your Apple TV....WS would love it.
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Post by chasmac on May 23, 2015 15:03:51 GMT -8
Well, let's suppose that Apple really does revolutionize TV at WWDC. Suppose they announce an iTunes like interface that for $69 makes cable obsolete and sends Comcast to the same dustbin of history as Napster. Further suppose that this almost guarantees a multi-billion dollar revenue stream. How badly do you think that will hurt the stock? People are used to getting a big variety for their money. A lot of that centers around sports and not just ESPN. My guess is, that ala carte is going to be much more expensive for awhile if you want that variety. Yes, the light TV watchers will love it but I think we're still a ways off. There's no way that Apple is going to include things like a regional sports network in their package. So you're only option is to get NBA, NHL and MLB separately. For example, NHL is a $160+/year joke. The games you want are often blacked out, streaming is terrible and games aren't available to watch later for 48 hours (good luck not finding out the results unless you live in a cave). I hope I'm wrong. Regardless, Apple really needs to step up to the plate here. BTW, agree about some of the software issues. Design with less functionality/usability/legibility is happening way too often IMO.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on May 23, 2015 23:13:46 GMT -8
Correction to weekend thread title: (+3.74)
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Post by rob_london on May 23, 2015 23:43:18 GMT -8
"What phone brands do Chinese teenagers want?" (Q4 2014) via Benedict Evans Samsung is not high on their wish list.
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Post by phoebear611 on May 24, 2015 4:48:54 GMT -8
Does anyone think Apple is working on any type of Holy Grail battery or charger? There must be something more simple - much longer lasting - and without wires (other than solar) that some genius with a larger brain can come up with. My home has chargers in every room - our cars have multiple chargers(front and back) - I walk into a store and see a sales clerk charging her phone under the sales rack as she folds clothes. I don't have to tell you the arguments that go on at the airport lounges sometimes to get an outlet. You need a plug and only have a car charger on you or vice versa at any given moment so you carry a pouch with EVERYTHING! I will be so disappointed if this company punts the battery problem to someone else like Musk and builds upon his technology somehow. Please tell me that somewhere on that campus some mad scientist is in a room splitting atoms and coming up with something SOON!
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Post by rickag on May 24, 2015 5:49:25 GMT -8
phoebear611
I doubt they are working directly on new or exotic battery tech, but rather on implementation. What I would bet on is they are following the developments being made on fundamental design of new battery tech and have and will invest as needed. There is promising developments on lithium / air and lithium / sulphur batteries.
Fun fact: after the Big Bang, guess what the third most common element was...why yes you're correct it was lithium. Contrary to what most people think lithium is not rare, but rather quite common.
Now where is my prescription, I have become quite bipolar after watching AAPL price gyrations the last 17 years.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on May 24, 2015 9:49:40 GMT -8
Does anyone think Apple is working on any type of Holy Grail battery or charger? There must be something more simple - much longer lasting - and without wires (other than solar) that some genius with a larger brain can come up with. My home has chargers in every room - our cars have multiple chargers(front and back) - I walk into a store and see a sales clerk charging her phone under the sales rack as she folds clothes. I don't have to tell you the arguments that go on at the airport lounges sometimes to get an outlet. You need a plug and only have a car charger on you or vice versa at any given moment so you carry a pouch with EVERYTHING! I will be so disappointed if this company punts the battery problem to someone else like Musk and builds upon his technology somehow. Please tell me that somewhere on that campus some mad scientist is in a room splitting atoms and coming up with something SOON! At some point, even the smartest people run up against the laws of physics. Remember that electric cars have been around for 100 years. Li-ion batteries are awesome, but it took a long, long time to get there. Keep in mind the Woz quote in my sig. One must-have for travelers are external battery packs. Some are built into phone cases. I always see them on sale on DealNews.com. And of course you need a sound jack adapter for leeching charging once you're on the plane.
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Post by osx10 on May 24, 2015 10:41:43 GMT -8
If what's past is prologue, then to understand what might be working on with regard to the new TV unit is to think about the very origins of cable tv in the 40s.
Long before Superstations and premium channels, Community Access TV started as receiving antennas on top of mountains and such that would receive a broadcast signal and redistribute the programming through coaxial cable lines to areas unable to get the Over The Air signal of local stations. If adopts this model and limits access to local feeds by determining that the subscriber resides in the local TV station's DMA (by zip code perhaps), I don't think it should be subject to paying a carriage fee (of course Aereo thought that too and the courts thought otherwise).
Local stations would have their programming/ads seen in more Households with essentially a giant community reception facility getting the signal which is backhauled to the Apple servers and then streamed out to eligible households.
Cable companies today are not re-broadcasting a local station's over the air signal, stations usually microwave (or fiber link) their programming right to the cable company's "head-end" and that difference between over the air re-broadcast and direct delivery to the cable company should be the legal difference which would allow the service.
Would be just like to use a simple answer to differentiate their product offering.
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Post by PikesPique on May 24, 2015 12:06:25 GMT -8
I cut the cord (or rather the satellite link) a few years ago and now get my programming via multiple sources - Netflix DVD, Netflix streaming (AppleTV), Hulu Plus (ATV), PBS (ATV), and CBS.com. Unfortunately CBS.com can only be viewed on my TV via AirPlay Mirroring from my iOS devices. Total cost of these programming sources is about half the satellite bill.
I live in the CO mountains and cannot get OTA signals, so If Apple could stream "free" or low-cost live local channels (albeit with ads) via ATV, that would be great. It would be even better if they could stream on-demand or provide a DVR capability. This could be achieved similar to the PBS app, requiring a sign up in which you identify your zip code, so the revenues from fees or ads go to the appropriate local station.
So much more could be done with AppleTV: ala carte by station or show, BYOB (build your own bundle), better discovery, better access to favorites using a consolidated view of stations and/or shows regardless of which app is used to access (like an app launch pad or an RSS-type aggregator), notifications of new episodes or season premiers of your favorite shows, etc., etc., etcetera!
It's not the technology (hardware OR software) that is holding us back. It's the "politics" - both corporate and governmental.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on May 24, 2015 12:18:23 GMT -8
Years ago when Napster was upsetting the music industry, long before iTunes, I found myself sitting next to a record exec from CBS on a flight to Alaska. Back then, Alaska Airlines was liberal with their first class upgrades or else a peon like me would not have had the opportunity to mix with such elite company. The conversation finally touched on the threat of Napster and I offered him this solution: Instead of trying to stop it, embrace it. Create a program that lets people share the music at a nominal charge like a dollar a song. You need a credit card to join. When someone loads a song from your computer, you get a credit. When you load one, you are debited. At the end of the month you get a statement and you can always cash out. Record companies get a cut as does the artist. Once the program is released, there is no cost for servers, just money rolling in.
He thought about it for a minute and said, "It will never fly It is not about the money, it is about control". Chilling words. No wonder we have Justin Bieber. I suspect that a similar dynamic is in play.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on May 24, 2015 12:40:25 GMT -8
Years ago when Napster was upsetting the music industry, long before iTunes, I found myself sitting next to a record exec from CBS on a flight to Alaska. Back then, Alaska Airlines was liberal with their first class upgrades or else a peon like me would not have had the opportunity to mix with such elite company. The conversation finally touched on the threat of Napster and I offered him this solution: Instead of trying to stop it, embrace it. Create a program that lets people share the music at a nominal charge like a dollar a song. You need a credit card to join. When someone loads a song from your computer, you get a credit. When you load one, you are debited. At the end of the month you get a statement and you can always cash out. Record companies get a cut as does the artist. Once the program is released, there is no cost for servers, just money rolling in. He thought about it for a minute and said, "It will never fly It is not about the money, it is about control". Chilling words. No wonder we have Justin Bieber. I suspect that a similar dynamic is in play. They were warned, not just by you, but by their digital experts. I read an article years back that one of the big label's digital/tech guys told them in the late 90's that digital audio formats and downloads were coming and here to stay, so you'd better embrace and monetize them. They just laughed at him, and said, why would we want to give up these enormously profitable little silver disks that cost like a penny a piece, and lay down all that expensive fiber and data centers, and worry about the copy protection issues of digital formats? I've often wondered if one had a time machine, and could go back and try to change important world events (e.g., Lincoln assassination, Hitler's rise to power, Barry Soweto getting a green card, etc.), mankind's arrogance would just laugh at you and you wouldn't be able to stop things. Sure, you could personally shoot John Wilkes Booth before he got to Lincoln, and you could of course put every cent you had into Apple at a cost basis of ten cents, but changing minds? That's hard.
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Post by artman1033 on May 24, 2015 13:53:21 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
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Post by bud777 on May 24, 2015 14:08:52 GMT -8
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Post by chasmac on May 24, 2015 17:56:29 GMT -8
I've often wondered if one had a time machine, and could go back and try to change important world events (e.g., Lincoln assassination, Hitler's rise to power, Barry Soweto getting a green card, etc.), mankind's arrogance would just laugh at you and you wouldn't be able to stop things. Sure, you could personally shoot John Wilkes Booth before he got to Lincoln, and you could of course put every cent you had into Apple at a cost basis of ten cents, but changing minds? That's hard. Who's Barry Soweto and why is his getting a green card equal to Hitler?
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Post by chasmac on May 24, 2015 18:02:42 GMT -8
I've often wondered if one had a time machine, and could go back and try to change important world events (e.g., Lincoln assassination, Hitler's rise to power, Barry Soweto getting a green card, etc.), mankind's arrogance would just laugh at you and you wouldn't be able to stop things. Sure, you could personally shoot John Wilkes Booth before he got to Lincoln, and you could of course put every cent you had into Apple at a cost basis of ten cents, but changing minds? That's hard. Who's Barry Soweto and why is his getting a green card equal to Hitler?
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