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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2012 0:06:53 GMT -8
Can we break the $650 brick wall of calls today?
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Post by wheeles on Oct 17, 2012 0:59:57 GMT -8
Can we break the $650 brick wall of calls today? If AAPL does poke above it at the open, expect it to get sold hard. Lots of folk will be looking to cash out of the 650s.
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Post by bloodylongaapl on Oct 17, 2012 4:08:00 GMT -8
Having already passed $700 in not-so-distant (thought granted, it seems long ago) memory, and with an announcement and Q1 guidance imminent? I'm not so sure. Could go either way I think.
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Post by Rupert on Oct 17, 2012 4:13:28 GMT -8
Resistance/Support Wednesday 10/17/2012
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 17, 2012 4:57:30 GMT -8
Can we break the $650 brick wall of calls today? If AAPL does poke above it at the open, expect it to get sold hard. Lots of folk will be looking to cash out of the 650s. I'm with the yellow bellied warbler on this one. We poke above 650, we get sold until that call wall is sold or rolled. It will take a while....
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Post by Rupert on Oct 17, 2012 5:08:43 GMT -8
Nick Nansen: Resistance Levels This Week for ApplePosted on October 17, 2012 Yesterday, an elephant(mutual or pension fund) stepped in to buy some Apple shares and the HFTs quickly picked up on this and started covering their short positions and up we went. Can it continue the rest of the week. Yes, but the pros and their HFTs will quickly survey the landscape and if there is not follow through on the elephants part, they will quickly regain their control and pin Apple stock under these large concentration of open calls. Where are the calls concentrated? Right here: 630 22.6 K contracts 650 24.9 K 660 24.9 K 670 28.1 K 680 26.2 K 700 39.4 K 750 42.1 K They would like to wipe these out and make them worthless. If they can, they will. That’s their motto. I expect there to be heavy resistance at each one of these levels. If they are successful this earnings quarter, they may make a similar raid on the January quarter. There is a world of difference between the October quarter and the January quarter. Everyone knew October was going to be a weak quarter and a transition quarter. The January quarter will be a historic quarter with record sales and earnings. The pros will probably not attempt a Bear raid against that quarter. That is why when you are planning ahead and picking your spreads you need to pick quarters that are going to be strong. Do not pick quarters that are transitional before or during product launches. The pros like to have the odds in ther favor when they attack. LINK: nanseninvestments.com/
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Post by flyonthewall on Oct 17, 2012 5:14:43 GMT -8
Apple as a termite? Asymco's Horace Dediu has a fascinating essay on a new way of looking at apps and their potential for future disruptive activity. The Apple app as a termite Enjoy!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 5:56:46 GMT -8
Uh...so far, AAPL not getting sold _that_ hard.
Might try trial butterflies again for OpEx though.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 5:59:43 GMT -8
AMZN is so full of LOL I don't know where to begin.
Good thing I'm out of the puts. For now...
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 17, 2012 6:00:16 GMT -8
There is a battle going on this morning. It dropped $4 in a blink of an eye. The market itself is holding up decent after yesterday afternoon. (IBM-INTC) IBM is getting killed, but INTC is clawing its way back. I actually can't believe the market is only down a few points with IBM down $9. Since IBM impacts the DOW the most this shows overall strength. IMO
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Post by wheeles on Oct 17, 2012 6:00:37 GMT -8
Overhead gap closed.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 17, 2012 6:04:19 GMT -8
AMZN is so full of LOL I don't know where to begin. Good thing I'm out of the puts. For now... You betcha. Look at AMZN's RSI and MACD, both look bullish to me.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 17, 2012 6:05:00 GMT -8
Not the one I want closed. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 6:10:57 GMT -8
If AAPL can consolidate over 645 by Friday I'd call it a good sign. Digestion after yesterday's big move? Fine by me!
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Post by Lstream on Oct 17, 2012 6:11:36 GMT -8
AMZN is so full of LOL I don't know where to begin. Good thing I'm out of the puts. For now... Read a story this morning that Amazon is sitting on top of a large revenue opportunity from ads, that so far has not been exploited much. The theory is that their knowledge of your shopping history is superior to anything Google and Facebook can deliver. Maybe that is helping the stock. Edit: Here is the link. www.wired.com/business/2012/10/amazon-next-advertising-giant/
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Post by wheeles on Oct 17, 2012 6:11:52 GMT -8
Not the one I want closed. ;D You'll have to wait a bit longer for that other one to be closed.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 17, 2012 6:12:43 GMT -8
The only thing I want digested are the shorts. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 6:13:01 GMT -8
Also read about the Kindle (Fire?) for education initiative.
Vs. iPad? And Apple? Well, iPad mini has yet to make its entrance.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 17, 2012 6:16:36 GMT -8
I think that housing number should carry the day. Let the battle for 650 be won and we could see a nice move up. Looks like the market liked the housing number.
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Post by terps530 on Oct 17, 2012 7:26:24 GMT -8
Nick Nansen: Resistance Levels This Week for ApplePosted on October 17, 2012 Yesterday, an elephant(mutual or pension fund) stepped in to buy some Apple shares and the HFTs quickly picked up on this and started covering their short positions and up we went. Can it continue the rest of the week. Yes, but the pros and their HFTs will quickly survey the landscape and if there is not follow through on the elephants part, they will quickly regain their control and pin Apple stock under these large concentration of open calls. Where are the calls concentrated? Right here: 630 22.6 K contracts 650 24.9 K 660 24.9 K 670 28.1 K 680 26.2 K 700 39.4 K 750 42.1 K They would like to wipe these out and make them worthless. If they can, they will. That’s their motto. I expect there to be heavy resistance at each one of these levels. If they are successful this earnings quarter, they may make a similar raid on the January quarter. There is a world of difference between the October quarter and the January quarter. Everyone knew October was going to be a weak quarter and a transition quarter. The January quarter will be a historic quarter with record sales and earnings. The pros will probably not attempt a Bear raid against that quarter. That is why when you are planning ahead and picking your spreads you need to pick quarters that are going to be strong. Do not pick quarters that are transitional before or during product launches. The pros like to have the odds in ther favor when they attack. LINK: nanseninvestments.com/ Question regarding aapl pain and open interest, etc: Let's say I open 10 contracts of a 640/650 call spread for Oct'12. I am buying 10x 640 calls, and selling 10x 650 calls. Do the 10x 650 calls I am selling contribute to open interest? Would the open interest increase by 10, decrease by 10, or be unchanged? thanks
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Post by sponge on Oct 17, 2012 7:33:02 GMT -8
I see well below 650 by Friday. Today was the highest we get.
Now we better get over 680 by next Thursday, otherwise we are in for a long dark winter.
In my view Jan option holders will be very nervous come Dec when we can't back over 650 again.
The damage in the last 4 weeks will take several months to recover from.
April is when we will see the dark clouds disappear.
Buy and Hold
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Post by Big Al on Oct 17, 2012 7:40:37 GMT -8
I see well below 650 by Friday. Today was the highest we get. Now we better get over 680 by next Thursday, otherwise we are in for a long dark winter. In my view Jan option holders will be very nervous come Dec when we can't back over 650 again. The damage in the last 4 weeks will take several months to recover from. April is when we will see the dark clouds disappear. Buy and Hold Ähm, why?
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Post by nkmho on Oct 17, 2012 7:40:48 GMT -8
Question regarding aapl pain and open interest, etc: Let's say I open 10 contracts of a 640/650 call spread for Oct'12. I am buying 10x 640 calls, and selling 10x 650 calls. Do the 10x 650 calls I am selling contribute to open interest? Would the open interest increase by 10, decrease by 10, or be unchanged? thanks For the 640 calls and the 650 calls, you will not know for sure if you're increasing or decreasing OI or keeping it unchanged. It depends on who you're buying from or selling to and if they're opening a position or closing one out.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 17, 2012 7:44:22 GMT -8
I see well below 650 by Friday. Today was the highest we get. Now we better get over 680 by next Thursday, otherwise we are in for a long dark winter. In my view Jan option holders will be very nervous come Dec when we can't back over 650 again. The damage in the last 4 weeks will take several months to recover from. April is when we will see the dark clouds disappear. Buy and Hold What is so special about April, as opposed to January, which follows Apple's biggest quarter of the year?
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Post by terps530 on Oct 17, 2012 7:46:47 GMT -8
I see well below 650 by Friday. Today was the highest we get. Now we better get over 680 by next Thursday, otherwise we are in for a long dark winter. In my view Jan option holders will be very nervous come Dec when we can't back over 650 again. The damage in the last 4 weeks will take several months to recover from. April is when we will see the dark clouds disappear. Buy and Hold What is so special about April, as opposed to January, which follows Apple's biggest quarter of the year? my guess is cause this is exactly what happened last year at this time
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Post by sponge on Oct 17, 2012 7:48:37 GMT -8
I see well below 650 by Friday. Today was the highest we get. Now we better get over 680 by next Thursday, otherwise we are in for a long dark winter. In my view Jan option holders will be very nervous come Dec when we can't back over 650 again. The damage in the last 4 weeks will take several months to recover from. April is when we will see the dark clouds disappear. Buy and Hold Ähm, why? Because now I also see how the stock is manipulated in relation to calls outstanding. WS crooks will make a killing by keeping the stock below 650 and keeping the money they took from all those who bought Oct calls. Remember that Oct looked really good back in August and everyone bought hoping to see $700+ I think they will do the same in Jan when everyone expects a big number but forgets that no matter how big the number is OE is before earnings. There are over 110K calls between $700-$705. I expect all of those to expire worthless. If we don't get over 680 I think we will revisit 620 in Nov. I think we will get over 680 next week and maybe even tough $700 again and then dividend will keep us just above 650.
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Post by sponge on Oct 17, 2012 7:51:31 GMT -8
What is so special about April, as opposed to January, which follows Apple's biggest quarter of the year? my guess is cause this is exactly what happened last year at this time Yes. If you recall the coiled spring effect. No matter the size of the quarter WS likes to keep the price low. They were caught flat footed in January and I think they will again. I think we will take off like a rocket once again in February and March. The iPad Mini, iPHone 5, and the new iPad in March will give us plenty to cheer come April.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 17, 2012 7:54:06 GMT -8
my guess is cause this is exactly what happened last year at this time Yes. If you recall the coiled spring effect. No matter the size of the quarter WS likes to keep the price low. They were caught flat footed in January and I think they will again. I think we will take off like a rocket once again in February and March. ?? - Which is why I questioned April. Your original post said the dark clouds lift in April, not Feb and March.
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Post by terps530 on Oct 17, 2012 7:56:52 GMT -8
Question regarding aapl pain and open interest, etc: Let's say I open 10 contracts of a 640/650 call spread for Oct'12. I am buying 10x 640 calls, and selling 10x 650 calls. Do the 10x 650 calls I am selling contribute to open interest? Would the open interest increase by 10, decrease by 10, or be unchanged? thanks For the 640 calls and the 650 calls, you will not know for sure if you're increasing or decreasing OI or keeping it unchanged. It depends on who you're buying from or selling to and if they're opening a position or closing one out. Ok gotcha. Thanks
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Post by sponge on Oct 17, 2012 8:02:06 GMT -8
Yes. If you recall the coiled spring effect. No matter the size of the quarter WS likes to keep the price low. They were caught flat footed in January and I think they will again. I think we will take off like a rocket once again in February and March. ?? - Which is why I questioned April. Your original post said the dark clouds lift in April, not Feb and March. Wrong choice of words I guess. We don't get from dark clouds and rain suddenly. They will start to depart in February and March but we won't reach full warm sunshine until April.
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