Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 15:20:49 GMT -8
Cl4: Won't matter for fiscal Q1. If iPad "3" is nicely over 15M units that's fine. iPad mini should account for more than a few million sales if Apple has the supply. I should also add, no way in heck Apple will break out iPad sales. So if we get a nice fiscal Q1 iPad sales number in the 25M-30M range (preferably the upper range or better) that should be just fine.
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Post by charles on Oct 17, 2012 15:43:41 GMT -8
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 17, 2012 16:07:32 GMT -8
good catch. This is the kind of thing which may be possible to confirm. Anybody got friends as pilots ?
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jz
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Post by jz on Oct 17, 2012 16:32:05 GMT -8
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 17, 2012 16:39:06 GMT -8
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 17, 2012 16:42:16 GMT -8
Tomorrow is a big earnings day. Expect "volatility", imho. MSFT, GOOG, VZ, Morgan Stanley, AMD, COF, Phillip Morris, Boston Scientific, KeyCorp, Union Pacific, BB&T, Travelers and Southwest Air. blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/10/17/tomorrows-tape-microsoft-google-lead-earnings-parade/?mod=yahoo_hs WSJ
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 16:45:35 GMT -8
Ah, GOOG...that'll be interesting to watch.
No earnings day betting for me I'm pretty sure, though I still have that little BPS side bet slowly losing value.
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Post by davidcv100 on Oct 17, 2012 16:48:22 GMT -8
Tomorrow is a big earnings day. Expect "volatility", imho. MSFT, GOOG, VZ, Morgan Stanley, AMD, COF, Phillip Morris, Boston Scientific, KeyCorp, Union Pacific, BB&T, Travelers and Southwest Air. blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/10/17/tomorrows-tape-microsoft-google-lead-earnings-parade/?mod=yahoo_hs WSJ From Marketwatch: Verizon results to provide early peek at Apple iPhone 5 sales October 17, 2012
When Verizon Communications VZ -0.31% reports its third-quarter results early Thursday morning, investors will get their first – albeit limited – look at how the iPhone 5 did at its launch last month.
Apple AAPL +0.07% does not report its results until next Thursday, the 25th. But all three U.S. carriers who sell the iPhone are reporting before that, with Verizon first and AT&T T -0.03% and Sprint S -0.35% posting their own results next Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. All three typically report the number of iPhones activated on their networks for the quarter.
Verizon usually discloses this metric in its earnings conference call, which gets underway at 5:30 am ET. The carrier activated 2.7 million iPhones in the June quarter – down 16% from the March period, and consistent with the sequential drop that Apple reported for the same time period, as iPhone buyers held off purchases to wait for the highly anticipated iPhone 5, which went on sale on Sept. 21., thus taking up the last week of the quarter.
Because Verizon’s numbers will only reflect a portion of U.S. sales of the device, it’s difficult to predict what would be considered a positive metric – or a disappointing one – as far as Apple’s key product goes. Few analysts have ventured a guess; Brett Feldman of Deutsche Bank predicted 3.5 million iPhone activations for Verizon in a note to clients on Wednesday.
Since the iPhone 5 is Apple’s first LTE smartphone, it will also be interesting to see how Verizon does against rival AT&T. Both are closely tied as the nation’s largest wireless carriers, though Verizon is believed to have a wider build-out of its LTE network for the moment.
A survey conducted by Piper Jaffray on the iPhone 5’s launch day of Sept. 21 found that among more than 500 customers waiting in line to buy the device, 11% said they currently used Verizon while 18% said their new network for the iPhone 5 would be Verizon. AT&T still has a larger share of iPhone customers, as the carrier had an exclusive deal to sell the device for its first four years. “Given AT&T’s large base of iPhone customers, they were likely to lose a little share,” Piper analyst Christopher Larsen wrote in the report.
As for Verizon’s overall business, analysts are expecting the telcom giant to report earnings of 64 cents a share on revenue of $29 billion for the third quarter, according to FactSet.
-Dan Gallagher
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 16:56:52 GMT -8
Fiscal Q4 2011 compare was 2M activations, for reference.
Full data for Verizon:
(Fiscal quarter)
Q2 11 - 2.2M Q3 11 - 2.3M Q4 11 - 2M Q1 12 - 4.3M Q2 12 - 3.2M Q3 12 - 2.7M
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Post by roni on Oct 17, 2012 17:10:20 GMT -8
I find it impossible to believe that iPad 3 sales will be materially impacted by iPad Mini ---> in a holiday quarter. If it is, it only means that there's more supply to shift around to areas that want it. I find it unlikely that it will not have an impact on iPad 3 sales. Of course it will.
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Post by chasmac on Oct 17, 2012 17:13:05 GMT -8
Thanks all for the great replies on Q3 GMs. I was leaning towards the upper 43 range. Tweaked all my numbers earlier today and am happy with the number I'm seeing.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 17, 2012 17:13:30 GMT -8
Fiscal Q4 2011 compare was 2M activations, for reference.Full data for Verizon: (Fiscal quarter) Q2 11 - 2.2M Q3 11 - 2.3M Q4 11 - 2MQ1 12 - 4.3M Q2 12 - 3.2M Q3 12 - 2.7M And that was prior to the introduction of the IPhone 4S, which happened in October. So we should trounce this number.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 17:25:08 GMT -8
Chas, replied in the fiscal Q4 thread.
Well, the good news is, a nice chunk of that 5M (plus) in iPhone 5 sales prior to quarter-end flowed to the Big Three in the US. But I'm not expecting a 4.3M-type number by any means.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 19:07:15 GMT -8
Aw. Got a PM from pats and he's sticking with Braeburn Group. We'll miss his perspective.
I leave it to others to try and change his mind.
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Post by seabiscuit on Oct 17, 2012 19:55:47 GMT -8
Nick Nansen: Resistance Levels This Week for ApplePosted on October 17, 2012 Yesterday, an elephant(mutual or pension fund) stepped in to buy some Apple shares and the HFTs quickly picked up on this and started covering their short positions and up we went. Can it continue the rest of the week. Yes, but the pros and their HFTs will quickly survey the landscape and if there is not follow through on the elephants part, they will quickly regain their control and pin Apple stock under these large concentration of open calls. Where are the calls concentrated? Right here: 630 22.6 K contracts 650 24.9 K 660 24.9 K 670 28.1 K 680 26.2 K 700 39.4 K 750 42.1 K They would like to wipe these out and make them worthless. If they can, they will. That’s their motto. I expect there to be heavy resistance at each one of these levels. If they are successful this earnings quarter, they may make a similar raid on the January quarter. There is a world of difference between the October quarter and the January quarter. Everyone knew October was going to be a weak quarter and a transition quarter. The January quarter will be a historic quarter with record sales and earnings. The pros will probably not attempt a Bear raid against that quarter. That is why when you are planning ahead and picking your spreads you need to pick quarters that are going to be strong. Do not pick quarters that are transitional before or during product launches. The pros like to have the odds in ther favor when they attack. LINK: nanseninvestments.com/ Question regarding aapl pain and open interest, etc: Let's say I open 10 contracts of a 640/650 call spread for Oct'12. I am buying 10x 640 calls, and selling 10x 650 calls. Do the 10x 650 calls I am selling contribute to open interest? Would the open interest increase by 10, decrease by 10, or be unchanged? thanks I think we pin at 645.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2012 20:43:29 GMT -8
I see well below 650 by Friday. Today was the highest we get. Now we better get over 680 by next Thursday, otherwise we are in for a long dark winter. In my view Jan option holders will be very nervous come Dec when we can't back over 650 again. The damage in the last 4 weeks will take several months to recover from. Wrong camel breath : ) This last dip was a short term technical move. Beyond the conference call it will be all about guidance, which is going to be huge.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 17, 2012 20:52:00 GMT -8
Yesterday I commented about the decline in P/C ratio from 0.98:1 down to 0.92:1.
That slide continued today dropping to 0.91:1. I think the Shorts are losing strength of conviction.
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Post by madmaxroi on Oct 17, 2012 21:04:28 GMT -8
Mav (and others), Any quesses on GM for this quarter? That's the one that's really got me scratching my head after the big Q3 dip. OT: thought this was pretty inspiring. Amazing what we can accomplish when we all work together. Space Shuttle's trek through LAChas, I am at 41.8%.
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Post by madmaxroi on Oct 17, 2012 21:07:58 GMT -8
Whisper number for AAPL is $10.20 versus $8.91 consensus.
GOOOOOOOOG whisper is $10.93.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 21:20:38 GMT -8
Don't forget, we have a dedicated topic for fiscal Q4 earnings discussion (/DT )
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 21:24:15 GMT -8
mad, we're just about the same on GM. What of the absent Mercel I wonder?
As far as whispers: Sheesh, $10.20? That's about 45% EPS growth. Ah, the joys of being an unaccountable website.
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Post by sponge on Oct 17, 2012 21:25:11 GMT -8
I see well below 650 by Friday. Today was the highest we get. Now we better get over 680 by next Thursday, otherwise we are in for a long dark winter. In my view Jan option holders will be very nervous come Dec when we can't back over 650 again. The damage in the last 4 weeks will take several months to recover from. Wrong camel breath : ) This last dip was a short term technical move. Beyond the conference call it will be all about guidance, which is going to be huge. I hope you are right Gregg and on Friday the 26th we celebrate $700 again.
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 17, 2012 22:44:51 GMT -8
I find it impossible to believe that iPad 3 sales will be materially impacted by iPad Mini ---> in a holiday quarter. If it is, it only means that there's more supply to shift around to areas that want it. I find it unlikely that it will not have an impact on iPad 3 sales. Of course it will. Doesn't matter much. The real impact will be on total iPad sales of all stripes, higher revenue, and higher earnings. I wouldn't be surprised if iPad Mini margins were as good or better than iPad 3.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 17, 2012 22:46:30 GMT -8
Slightly higher puts than calls @ 640, so technically a 640-644.99 pain range. But odds are that the dumb bunnies buy a bunch of 640 calls on the sentiment, and we close between 635-640 on Fri. Of course, VZ announcement could affect things, since the majority of dumb bunnies don't realize VZ is a tiny amount of Apple's market. My take: If VZ comes out with depressing iPhone numbers, load up the fucking truck with AAPL. I'm going to say it: If Apple tanks today, I am going to buy some weeklies.
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