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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 17, 2012 4:54:56 GMT -8
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 17, 2012 5:30:54 GMT -8
Which story specifically are you referring to? This one: "Study finds smartphone users top 1B for first time ever"?
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 17, 2012 6:06:56 GMT -8
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 17, 2012 6:58:55 GMT -8
Which story specifically are you referring to? This one: "Study finds smartphone users top 1B for first time ever"? Nope. That the entire world is so under penetrated in smart phone adoption. Sure, 1B is a huge number. But it's tiny relative to the world's cell phone user population. Even the mid and high end of the market has huge headroom for the next couple years. Remember what TC said about smart phones being right behind food and shelter on Maslow's hierarchy of needs? Well, boy was he ever right. And I'm pretty sure SJ was behind that concept many years ago. Now that it's true, it's driving adoption even amongst people that "can't afford" the price of an iPhone. Well, a lot of people can "afford" things when they need them. You just find a way. Then in a couple years, Apple can bust out the iPhone Mini to really chase market share. The next year or two without the Mini will be absolutely insane though. Don't forget that RIMM's crapberry is on over 600 carriers worldwide while iPhone is on 230 or so. Of course, these 230 probably represent 70% of the addressable market for crapberry because the carriers Apple has are larger than average but every carriers is seeing migration to smart phones and Apple can continue to add carriers. For a long time people were concerned ASP for iPhone would fall when exclusives expired in various markets. Well, that didn't happen because Apple proved iPhone could effectively shift share in the carriers because people wanted the iPhone. This forced the carriers to "pay up" for iPhone. Now, everyone argues that the Galaxy S3, or the HTC Droid Razor, or the fill in the blank phone are as good as iPhone. My argument has always been, so what if they are? I'm not saying they are, but I'm also not saying they aren't. I'm saying it doesn't matter. Do you want your phone to be compatible with iTunes? Do you want your phone to be compatible with your tablet? If so, you won't even look at other phones even if they're just as good (or even better) as iPhone. This is why iPad Mini is so important. Build the ecosystem to provide a tablet for everyone. iPhone will benefit. Back to the original point, in a market that is growing this rapidly, outsized ASP's and margins are absolutely sustainable so there's no reason iPhone's ASP or margin should suffer much, if at all, for the next couple years. We "only" have 1B smart phone users around the world with several more billion to come. Think about that. The market will double and then triple in the next few years. I believe this is why AZ has been so adamant that Doug Kass is a moron. This market is friggin huge. Just as important as how revolutionary the iPhone was is how friggin huge this market is. SJ didn't just build the best product in this race, he picked the best friggin race to enter of all time. The winner here might not take all, but 30% of "all" in this market could be $300B in annual revenue in just a couple years. WOW! I know I'm wandering a bit but this is so obvious to anyone really paying attention but WS and the talking heads still don't get it. Okay, now somebody please tell me I'm on crack and bring me back to reality.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 17, 2012 7:08:41 GMT -8
Now, everyone argues that the Galaxy S3, or the HTC Droid Razor, or the fill in the blank phone are as good as iPhone. My argument has always been, so what if they are? I'm not saying they are, but I'm also not saying they aren't. I'm saying it doesn't matter. Do you want your phone to be compatible with iTunes? Do you want your phone to be compatible with your tablet? If so, you won't even look at other phones even if they're just as good (or even better) as iPhone. This is why iPad Mini is so important. Build the ecosystem to provide a tablet for everyone. iPhone will benefit. Amen. It amazes me how many investors are clueless when it comes to this concept. Hardware isn't the most important selling factor anymore.
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 17, 2012 11:30:36 GMT -8
This is why iPad Mini is so important. Build the ecosystem to provide a tablet for everyone. iPhone will benefit. A master class in the halo effect.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 17, 2012 13:38:17 GMT -8
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Oct 17, 2012 14:19:11 GMT -8
Confirmation...of over 53M...? You mean confirmation sometime in late January?
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 17, 2012 14:36:48 GMT -8
I'm thinking we'll get 50M+ two quarters in a row. Am I nuts?
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 17, 2012 14:38:08 GMT -8
Tetra, whee can I get one of those? Man that looks like fun. There was nothing but good in that report. 53 million would be a dramatic drop in YOY %, (sarcasm). I can't for the life of me see PO saying anything higher than $13 for Q1. If you recall, In April, PO guided lower than the previous years results. Q1 of this year had a lot of special items and we had a ridiculous GM. This was because the 4S was essentially the same phone as the 4.
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Post by machouse on Oct 17, 2012 14:54:18 GMT -8
I'm thinking we'll get 50M+ two quarters in a row. Am I nuts? Maybe 60 then 40. Faster rollout should inflate Q1. Q2 should be a drop off assuming production is not a bottle neck. With new iphone released 24 days early this year just more time to ramp up production. Q1 will be huge
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 17, 2012 15:11:17 GMT -8
I'm thinking we'll get 50M+ two quarters in a row. Am I nuts? Maybe 60 then 40. Faster rollout should inflate Q1. Q2 should be a drop off assuming production is not a bottle neck. With new iphone released 24 days early this year just more time to ramp up production. Q1 will be huge Faster rollout matters a lot if there is no backlog at the end of the current Q. If the backlog is still substantial, we could still see a monster FQ2.
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Post by rob_london on Oct 18, 2012 2:51:27 GMT -8
Horace Dediu has just tweeted this chart illustrating the iPhone's current share of the number of phones shipped:
/photo/1/large
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Post by qualitywte on Oct 18, 2012 5:08:45 GMT -8
Horace Dediu has just tweeted this chart illustrating the iPhone's current share of the number of phones shipped: /photo/1/large That chart only shows thru Q2/12?
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Post by Big Al on Oct 18, 2012 5:19:56 GMT -8
Horace Dediu has just tweeted this chart illustrating the iPhone's current share of the number of phones shipped: /photo/1/large That chart only shows thru Q2/12? Since this is calendar year, there is probably no more recent data than July 2012.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 18, 2012 7:33:00 GMT -8
okay, how do we get our iPhone Q4 numbers.
3.1 VZ 4.1 ATT my wag estimate 1.0 Sprint my wag estimate 0.2 other carriers in the US ------- 8.4 M
Foreign sources 16.6 M to get to 25 M ?
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 18, 2012 7:40:43 GMT -8
Sounds about right. There may be .2-.3 to the upside. I think Sprint did better than 1 mil for the qtr.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2012 17:05:24 GMT -8
Working on something that a question from Ovi tonight reminded me of (I've been retired too long). I've started working on a spreadsheet to illustrate my thoughts, but need some help.
I need approximate dates that Foxconn opened new/additional production facilities over the past 4 years.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 22, 2012 18:05:17 GMT -8
Foxconn wiki en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foxconn#HistoryChina Foxconn has 13 factories in nine Chinese cities, more than in any other country.[20] Foxconn's largest factory worldwide is in Longhua, Shenzhen, where hundreds of thousands of workers (varying counts include 230,000,[16] 300,000,[21] and 450,000[22]) are employed at the Longhua Science & Technology Park, a walled campus[6] sometimes referred to as "Foxconn City"[23] or "iPod City".[24] Covering about 1.16 square miles (3 square km),[25] it includes 15 factories,[23] worker dormitories, a swimming pool,[26] a fire brigade,[6] its own television network (Foxconn TV),[6] and a city centre with a grocery store, bank, restaurants, bookstore and hospital.[6] While some workers live in surrounding towns and villages, others live and work inside the complex;[27] a quarter of the employees live in the dormitories, and many of them work up to 12 hours a day for 6 days each week.[16] Another of Foxconn's factory "cities" is Zhengzhou Technology Park in Zhengzhou, Henan province where it is reported 120,000 employees work.[28] Foxconn continues to expand, and planned factories include sites at Chengdu in Sichuan province and Wuhan in Hubei province.[20] On 24 September 2012, Foxconn Technology closed its Taiyuan plant after police were called in to break up a fight among factory employees.[29] [edit]Brazil All company facilities in South America are located in Brazil,[30] and these include mobile phone factories in Manaus and Indaiatuba as well as production bases in Jundiai, Sorocaba, and Santa Rita do Sapucaí.[31] The company is considering more investments in Brazil.[10] EuropeA Foxconn factory in the Czech Republic Foxconn has factories in Hungary,[32] Slovakia,[10] and the Czech Republic.[4] It is the second-largest exporter in the Czech Republic.[4] IndiaFoxconn has an operation in the Special Economic Zone of Chennai, Tamil Nadu.[33] JapanFoxconn and Sharp Corporation jointly run two plants manufacturing large-screen televisions in Sakai, Osaka. In August 2012 it was reported that Sharp, currently doing corporate restructuring and downsizing, was considering selling the plants to Foxconn, which was believed to be receptive to the plan.[34] MalaysiaAs of 2011, Foxconn had at least one factory in Johor state,[35] possibly at Kulaijaya, where it is developing an industrial park that will include four factories once completed.[36] Mexico Foxconn has a facility in San Jerónimo, Chihuahua that assembles computers,[37] and two facilities in Juárez – a former Motorola production base that manufactures mobile phones,[38] and a set-top box factory acquired from Cisco Systems.[39] LCD televisions are also made in the country by Foxconn.[40]
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 22, 2012 18:06:55 GMT -8
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 22, 2012 18:09:07 GMT -8
Maybe Horace can shed some light on this via his contacts or library.
See more info on previous page.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Oct 22, 2012 20:11:52 GMT -8
CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate
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Post by qualitywte on Nov 6, 2012 6:14:42 GMT -8
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Post by Big Al on Nov 21, 2012 5:39:59 GMT -8
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 1, 2012 7:37:58 GMT -8
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 17, 2012 19:03:10 GMT -8
On net sales by "Operating Segment" (geography)
Info from Oct 31, 2012 10-K form, page 30
I suspect that China will be a category unto itself. How about next quarter, PFO ?
Maybe somebody can make use of this info in their projections.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 20, 2012 11:35:12 GMT -8
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Post by jdrizzo89 on Dec 21, 2012 15:33:23 GMT -8
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Post by Tetrachloride on Dec 25, 2012 9:33:47 GMT -8
Speculation on when RIMM will cease to exist ? A neighbor of mine revealed she has a Blackberry on Sprint. (ATT and VZ coverage is inadequate at her farm.)
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Post by Big Al on Feb 14, 2013 2:53:52 GMT -8
At least for Germany I can say that Apple has been around 20% market share since beginning of 2011, while Samsung went from 10% to 30% in that timeframe. Nokia's share tumbled fast (37% -> 17%).
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