chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,425
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Post by chinacat on Jun 19, 2015 16:04:09 GMT -8
Well, there we have it. First time we've had 4 down weeks in a row since June 2013, when the split-adjusted closing price was about $56. That marked a big weekly double bottom, and the next week started a massive run. Can we take some solace in the face that the loss has decreased each week? No, didn't think so. It just keeps getting harder to imagine what it will take to move AAPL in the direction it deserves. I'd normally be bullish going into earnings, but since last quarter's amazing numbers actually resulted in backwards motion, I am totally bewildered. Almost any company would love to report in the upcoming four quarters the results that Apple logged in the last four quarters. I shudder to think what would happen to AAPL if Apple were to do that. Keep buying up those shares, Tim. Opening early to provide a sympathetic ear to distraught Apple/APPL followers. Drink up and drown your sorrows.
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Post by firestorm on Jun 19, 2015 16:43:15 GMT -8
I think AAPL has simply hit a plateau that it cannot break through without another breakthrough product, and the watch isn't it. There are probably better opportunities elsewhere.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jun 19, 2015 16:51:27 GMT -8
I think AAPL has simply hit a plateau that it cannot break through without another breakthrough product, and the watch isn't it. There are probably better opportunities elsewhere. Ionic to read that as I logged on just to rave about my new Apple Watch ! Went to the Apple store at the Americana in Glendale as I read that stores had some stock .... walked out with a 42mm Sport Edition with a white band. I've had this thing about a hour and I'm already in love with it ... the voice recognition is fantastic and I can't imagine using my phone to send a text ever again ! Love the fact I can walk around the house and leave my iPhone plugged in and not miss a beat. Firestorm, this watch is a game changer .... it's going to take some time but this thing is a winner and will only get better and more usable when the new operating system comes out this fall. Screw wall street ... they have NEVER gotten AAPL but eventually the numbers cannot be ignored. Ok ... I'll just have a water as I spent my drinking money on the watch Cheers to the longs
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Post by nagrani on Jun 19, 2015 18:17:46 GMT -8
Guys - I bought more apple options today than I have in a very long time. Feeling good about a potential Lower low on apple and a pop next week. Peace
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2015 18:32:34 GMT -8
AAPL is likely a flat line for 2-3 weeks. I've accepted the reality that AAPL will always be a "show me" stock because Apple's future is not a pipe dream, like Amazon, et al. I thought an iCar might get WS excited but I guess it sees the mirage of Amazon profits in clearer focus.
The latest FUD is how rumors of Watch 2 might hurt sales of Watch 1. This has been true every year with iPhones, iPads and Macs. The media is so messed up there's no fixing it.
Time for a G&T before my heart rate wears down my Watch battery (uh, oh, more FUD...the battery needs to be charged!).
Cheers to the longs!
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Post by Luckychoices on Jun 19, 2015 19:30:52 GMT -8
Just got this e-mail from my good friend, Kevin. Kevin is trying to break a 15-year (at least) buy-and-sell, time-the-market, buy-low & sell-high stock "strategy" and move to a buy-and-hold AAPL strategy. Earlier in the year, things were going well, but now he's understanding that he must be willing to ignore the FUD and be patient. This does not make me jump with joy! I agree it's flat, but constant articles like this don't help a stock. The market freaks and everybody gets nervous... I wish folks like this would stop writing articles when they are guessing at what's happening... Nobody knows, I'm amazed they pay people to write articles they're guessing at...This is the article that Kevin forwarded: ========================== Eagle Bay Capital Founder JC Parets said Thursday that he thinks buying Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) "makes very little sense" from a big picture, long-term perspective.Parets said that the chart is misleading because on a short-term timeframe, the chart looks to be in a bullish continuation pattern. However, the stock has traded within that pattern for quite some time, causing Parets to argue that if the stock were going to move higher, it would have by now. Instead, Apple has "gone absolutely nowhere."Instead, Parets is looking at a long-term trend channel that has constrained the stock. From that perspective, "Apple is a terrible buy here."Parets' analysis is also based on Fibonacci levels. "If you're not looking at these Fibonacci levels, you're doing yourself a disservice," Parets said. In January, Parets was looking for Apple to move higher – from the $110 level towards $129. The stock hit that level, even pushing as high as $134.54. The stock is mired at $127.80. A break lower, Parets argued, would have negative implications and would be "very, very bad." As Apple is such a large component in many of the indexes, it may also have negative implications for the broader market. Year-to-date, the stock has done quite well, gaining 15.8 percent versus an 8.4 percent increase in the Nasdaq 100.========================== I did a search for "JC Parets" and "Apple" and found any number of quotes from Parets warning against AAPL but never really came across a column where he recommended buying APPL. Anyway, one of his columns that caught my eye was one from 03/15/13, called, "What Do We Do With Apple?" allstarcharts.com/what-do-we-do-with-apple/I included the link in case someone wanted to view the charts and I'm not including the entire column. ========================== Remember last summer when you couldn’t think of a single person that didn’t KNOW that Apple was going higher? Those were good times.
It’s rare to find such euphoria in an asset class. And yes at the time Apple was actually considered an asset class. Stocks, Bonds, Commodities and Apple. How funny is that? People used to say it all the time, and no one would laugh. They would just nod and agree like it was common knowledge. True story.
Anytime I would say anything negative about it, the cult following would send me hate mail and call me names. That doesn’t happen when I write or tweet something about US Steel. So you want confirmation of a bubble? See the comment section here.
Anyway, back to today. Every single bottom fisherman in this stock has been wrong. Unless of course you were in and out very quickly for a trade. But any “investor” in this name since the Fall has been wrong. Really wrong. But this gap from last January that we’ve been watching during this whole crash finally got filled this month. So is that enough to create a bottom that we’ll be able to point to months or even years from now?
Here is a daily bar chart of the now infamous Apple. The green support line represents the gap fill from last January. I suppose this is a logical area where one can potentially start looking for an entry point:
The next chart shows two very important downtrend lines that are both still intact. The first, and probably the most important one, comes from the absolute top back in September and down through the December and January highs. You will also notice a very steep dotted line that represents the 50 day moving average. The severity of this downward slope tells the story well about how bad this name has really been. The second trendline is drawn a little bit thicker to represent the 2013 downtrend. Yes, 2013 downtrend – apple lost 20% this year as the rest of the stock market obnoxiously explodes to all-time high territory. How does it feel to be an apple shareholder now?
So here’s what the bulls want to see. Because I’m not bullish or bearish. In fact I couldn’t care less which way apple trades. I don’t care about their balance sheet. I don’t care about how many iPhones they sell or don’t sell. Clearly the market didn’t care about any of these things back in September – so why should I?
A big number to me is 440. This level would take out the first downtrend line which would open up the doors towards the longer-term downtrend line off the absolute top. The second thing it would do is take out the neckline from that head and shoulders looking thing in February. And most importantly, it would leave these recent bears trapped below 440, which could cause a little bit of a squeeze in the name.
I’m not super thrilled about this one. I think there are a lot better setups out there, on both the long and the short side. But I think this post describes my thoughts on apple pretty accurately. I get asked about this stock constantly, so I figured I do a follow up post from bad news I had last time. I wish it didn’t have to be this way. But Mr. Market does a good job of punishing late longs and bubble chasers. And unfortunately for apple “shareholders”, the only thing that is going to cure this crash is time, a lot of it. We may never see those all-time highs ever again. In fact, chances are that we don’t. And if we do, it will be a long time from now.
This is trade, that’s all it is. And I think it will continue to be just that (both long & short) for some time.
========================== AAPL is a trade, that's all it is? Hmm. I don't understand or use Fibonacci levels, but I do like charts. So I put together a crude chart of AAPL closing prices from the date of Paret's column (03/15/13) up to the close today and it makes me wonder if Paret EVER suggested that his readers go long* on AAPL after 03/15/13 because the stock has almost doubled in a little over two years. I think that's a pretty significant increase, especially since he wrote: " We may never see those all-time highs ever again. In fact, chances are that we don’t. And if we do, it will be a long time from now." When you consider your financial investments, is two years, 3 months and 4 days a long time to double your money?If you take a look at my chart, you'll notice I put in a few down-slope arrows to indicate periods over the last two years where AAPL didn't appear to be going in the right direction. I continue to believe we're seeing that same sort of period right now and by the end of the year, the last few months of sideways action will be just another blip. * I realize that JC Paret is not likely to recommend going long on ANY stock because that's not how he views the stock market.
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Post by BillH on Jun 19, 2015 19:36:47 GMT -8
I tried to buy an Apple Sport Watch @ Southdale yesterday. Sold out in both silver/white and space gray/black 38mm. Sales person said she didn't know how many they received but they were expecting to be refreshed daily. I'm assuming you're just venting Firestorm but just in case...,Apples next mega hit product will be...,wait for it...,IPhone 6s for the win.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jun 19, 2015 19:47:15 GMT -8
AAPL is likely a flat line for 2-3 weeks. I've accepted the reality that AAPL will always be a "show me" stock because Apple's future is not a pipe dream, like Amazon, et al. I thought an iCar might get WS excited but I guess it sees the mirage of Amazon profits in clearer focus. The latest FUD is how rumors of Watch 2 might hurt sales of Watch 1. This has been true every year with iPhones, iPads and Macs. The media is so messed up there's no fixing it. Time for a G&T before my heart rate wears down my Watch battery (uh, oh, more FUD...the battery needs to be charged!). Cheers to the longs! I'm very optimistic regarding the Apple Watch and think it will be a very successful product for the company. I hope Apple doesn't disclose exactly how many are sold because the number sold will be used against Apple if every quarter doesn't show an increase from the previous quarter. Crazy. Five minutes ago, as I was working on my computer, I got the standard, periodic message from my Apple Watch to get up and move around for a minute. So I got up from the computer and walked into the Living Room just in time to see my wife standing up in response to the message she just got on her watch. We both laughed and she said, "Were you just told to stand up and move around, too?" And the thing is, when our Apple Watch tells us to stand up and move around, we stand up and move around.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jun 19, 2015 19:53:18 GMT -8
I think AAPL has simply hit a plateau that it cannot break through without another breakthrough product, and the watch isn't it. There are probably better opportunities elsewhere. Ionic to read that as I logged on just to rave about my new Apple Watch ! Went to the Apple store at the Americana in Glendale as I read that stores had some stock .... walked out with a 42mm Sport Edition with a white band. I've had this thing about a hour and I'm already in love with it ... the voice recognition is fantastic and I can't imagine using my phone to send a text ever again ! Love the fact I can walk around the house and leave my iPhone plugged in and not miss a beat. Firestorm, this watch is a game changer .... it's going to take some time but this thing is a winner and will only get better and more usable when the new operating system comes out this fall.Screw wall street ... they have NEVER gotten AAPL but eventually the numbers cannot be ignored. Ok ... I'll just have a water as I spent my drinking money on the watch Cheers to the longsYes!
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jun 19, 2015 20:27:05 GMT -8
I think AAPL has simply hit a plateau that it cannot break through without another breakthrough product, and the watch isn't it. There are probably better opportunities elsewhere. The only problem that the watch has is the same as any other product does/will have. What constitutes "breakthrough"? Another iPhone? Chances of that are extremely slight. As the iPad has demonstrated, the two year refresh cycle for iPhone is the goose that lays the golden egg. It is ironic that this benefit was caused by the carriers, who imposed the two-year contract length. What other tech product has ever matched it? I do not think that the TV will be the one to make a serious dent in annual revenue for the same reason. Screens are a commodity, unless they intend to go extremely high end, which I see as doubtful, being too market limiting. The refresh cycle will be long, unless they start charging for software updates. Can whatever percentage they get from the content providers be enough to have a serious effect on revenues? The real "product" is the ecosystem, which is why software ("Services") is becoming ever more important. The individual hardware components are becoming less important, while still providing excellent margins, but more like portals into the ecosystem. I feel the same about Home Automation. How can Apple make serious (for them) revenue? I don't think licensing third-party hardware can do it. We have the goose that keeps laying golden eggs. Hoping to find another one almost guarantees disappointment. The game now is to leverage the one we have. But I am still hopeful that just continuing to operate at a very high level and leveraging the "annuities" like Apple Pay can at some point draw enough support for a market-average P/E.
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Post by 2centsplus on Jun 19, 2015 22:42:01 GMT -8
Eagle Bay Capital Founder JC Parets said Thursday that he thinks buying Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) "makes very little sense" from a big picture, long-term perspective.
"If you're not looking at these Fibonacci levels, you're doing yourself a disservice," Parets said. I don’t care about their balance sheet. I don’t care about how many iPhones they sell or don’t sell.
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Post by firestorm on Jun 20, 2015 5:32:05 GMT -8
Someone said about a week ago that algorithms monitor sites like this for evidence that retail investors are throwing in the towel, at which point they can swoop in. I'm just using reverse psychology on the algorithms.
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Post by incorrigible on Jun 20, 2015 6:16:22 GMT -8
AAPL is likely a flat line for 2-3 weeks. I've accepted the reality that AAPL will always be a "show me" stock because Apple's future is not a pipe dream, like Amazon, et al. I thought an iCar might get WS excited but I guess it sees the mirage of Amazon profits in clearer focus. The latest FUD is how rumors of Watch 2 might hurt sales of Watch 1. This has been true every year with iPhones, iPads and Macs. The media is so messed up there's no fixing it. Time for a G&T before my heart rate wears down my Watch battery (uh, oh, more FUD...the battery needs to be charged!). Cheers to the longs! I'm very optimistic regarding the Apple Watch and think it will be a very successful product for the company. I hope Apple doesn't disclose exactly how many are sold because the number sold will be used against Apple if every quarter doesn't show an increase from the previous quarter. Crazy. Five minutes ago, as I was working on my computer, I got the standard, periodic message from my Apple Watch to get up and move around for a minute. So I got up from the computer and walked into the Living Room just in time to see my wife standing up in response to the message she just got on her watch. We both laughed and she said, "Were you just told to stand up and move around, too?" And the thing is, when our Apple Watch tells us to stand up and move around, we stand up and move around. View AttachmentMaybe he watches were implying you two should be doing some other form of exercise.
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Post by hledgard on Jun 20, 2015 6:29:00 GMT -8
Someone said about a week ago that algorithms monitor sites like this for evidence that retail investors are throwing in the towel, at which point they can swoop in. I'm just using reverse psychology on the algorithms. This is spooky stuff. If true, the lay person never has a chance (unless he or she goes long only).
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 20, 2015 6:32:24 GMT -8
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2015 6:33:36 GMT -8
Apple just announced Watch availability in retail stores. I checked online and noted only 2 (!) states that had the 42mm Watch w/classic buckle for pickup today. The Sport models are available in most of the states.
I think demand is very solid. A friend who is a diehard for mechanicals just threw in the towel yesterday and bought two.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jun 20, 2015 6:48:12 GMT -8
I think I'm going to buy one for my wife .... I'm having a blast with this thing.
Seriously, I woke up this morning and couldn't wait to put it on .... about to leave for a 2 week vacation with the family in Europe ... will be fun to see how useful it will be .
Remember, people panned the iPod when it came out .... same with iPhone ..... this is the real deal.
Cheers to the longs.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 20, 2015 7:38:49 GMT -8
Guys - I bought more apple options today than I have in a very long time. Feeling good about a potential Lower low on apple and a pop next week. Peace What's the specifics? You don't need to include the quantity, but the strike and expiration would be nice. Thanks! (I looked at a few things yesterday, such as '16 120-140 BCS, with about a 100% potential gain. Basically I was looking at my investment choices instead of putting money into an approved medical marijuana grower a friend is starting up. Apple's not the only field out there making lots of money, and sometimes it's good to diversify a bit)
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Post by redinaustin on Jun 20, 2015 7:53:24 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 20, 2015 7:56:49 GMT -8
I wish folks like this would stop writing articles when they are guessing at what's happening... Nobody knows, I'm amazed they pay people to write articles they're guessing at... [/i][/font] [/quote] We're really all guessing at it, to various extents. On the last few trading days of 2012, I bought a couple big blocks of shares at around $605. With the drop down thus far, it felt pretty safe. And while the stock is now up about 45% from that level, or around 17% annualized, it had a wild ride to get there. If I had any sense of what was to come, I would have not bought then and even sold other shares. Likewise I would have loved to buy at the low. From $400, the stock is up 118%, or about 38% annualized. Of course if I had known exactly what was to come, I could be a bajillionaire by now. But even seeing just that one major dip, and not even using margin or options, could have added a 0 onto our or most any other AAPL investor's portfolio value. Sadly, while I was ready (though not expecting) a small downturn, I was in no way expecting the magnitude of what came our way that time. And if being truthful, I don't think most people could. There's a lot of clueless commentators out there. But really no one knows the future. Past performance may predict future results, but it's not a given, especially when you move back a step from company results to their stock performance. Personally, I just wish that more commentators and analysts put their money where their mouth was. I'd be much more apt to listen to someone who's bullish if they have skin in the game. On the other side of the coin, I'd be happier to see bearish comments if they had some investments aimed at that. One might see that as talking their book, but as long as they disclose that I'd actually prefer that.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2015 8:00:00 GMT -8
Update: The Watch models in stainless are not available for pickup. SOLD OUT. I'm upping my ASPs for Watch in the June quarter.
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Post by auhkram on Jun 20, 2015 8:02:28 GMT -8
Apple just announced Watch availability in retail stores. I checked online and noted only 2 (!) states that had the 42mm Watch w/classic buckle for pickup today. The Sport models are available in most of the states. I think demand is very solid. A friend who is a diehard for mechanicals just threw in the towel yesterday and bought two. Yup, I checked for some steel watches at 8am this morning with many states in stock. An hour later checked again and now all sold out with exception of 1 or 2 states. Sport models are readily available as of now. I have a feeling folks who can afford it are springing for the steel since it looks classier for everyday wear which equals higher ASPs for Apple.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2015 8:20:23 GMT -8
I think sapphire is a big deal for many, as it doesn't scratch. Too, the stainless looks higher-end. I hope availability of the Watch reflect demand, as I'm not aware of any production constraints with the stainless model.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Jun 20, 2015 9:46:09 GMT -8
(I looked at a few things yesterday, such as '16 120-140 BCS, with about a 100% potential gain. Basically I was looking at my investment choices instead of putting money into an approved medical marijuana grower a friend is starting up. Apple's not the only field out there making lots of money, and sometimes it's good to diversify a bit) Is it DEA-approved? Because I've never heard of such a thing.
I've got a bad feeling about Monday with these Greek deadbeats. The entitled bums really don't care if they take world markets down with them. The EU is taking reality avoidance to perverse magnitudes. Jesus, just pull off the band-aid already! I'm looking to dump about 700 AAPL shares I've had on margin for a few years, as I'm in escrow, plus I need a car, as the Dogmobile took a crap, and I want to add some margins to my margin. Other than automatic spread assignment/exercise, it will be the first time I've ever sold AAPL stock! My luck, we'll tank on Monday. I was going to write some calls, but 7 contracts are probably more trouble that it's worth, and I'm in a hurry.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jun 20, 2015 10:33:38 GMT -8
Wonderfully informative presentation, Red! Thanks for posting it. There's no time to multitask while viewing and absorbing this talk. Benedict Evens talks so fast, my brain must have been burning calories trying to process all the information coming at it. I only wish I could have gotten "Calories Burned" credit on my Apple Watch.
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Post by nagrani on Jun 20, 2015 11:02:36 GMT -8
Guys - I bought more apple options today than I have in a very long time. Feeling good about a potential Lower low on apple and a pop next week. Peace What's the specifics? You don't need to include the quantity, but the strike and expiration would be nice. Thanks! (I looked at a few things yesterday, such as '16 120-140 BCS, with about a 100% potential gain. Basically I was looking at my investment choices instead of putting money into an approved medical marijuana grower a friend is starting up. Apple's not the only field out there making lots of money, and sometimes it's good to diversify a bit) I bought some in the money jan 2016 calls. I won't give the exact strike but they weren't deep in the money. Close to current price.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jun 20, 2015 11:20:08 GMT -8
I thought an iCar might get WS excited but I guess it sees the mirage of Amazon profits in clearer focus. For anyone interested in Apple making an electric car, the biography on Elon Musk was a great read. I hadn't heard that Tesla nearly sold out to Google, before getting a surge of Model S orders and cranking out a record number of them. They make comparisons of him many times to SJ. And I wasn't familiar with the whole point of SpaceX being to eventually get a city on Mars. (though I think he's wrong about the Tesla being the first item anywhere with a 17" touchscreen (LCD), since slot machines had them in the 17-19" range before then)
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Post by artman1033 on Jun 20, 2015 13:18:06 GMT -8
I thought an iCar might get WS excited but I guess it sees the mirage of Amazon profits in clearer focus. For anyone interested in Apple making an electric car, the biography on Elon Musk was a great read. I hadn't heard that Tesla nearly sold out to Google, before getting a surge of Model S orders and cranking out a record number of them. They make comparisons of him many times to SJ. And I wasn't familiar with the whole point of SpaceX being to eventually get a city on Mars. (though I think he's wrong about the Tesla being the first item anywhere with a 17" touchscreen (LCD), since slot machines had them in the 17-19" range before then) Just finished the Elon Musk book. JUST GREAT!
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jun 20, 2015 19:19:36 GMT -8
Thanks for this, Other Red. Really, with a track record like this, you guys should listen to me more on the future direction of stuff.....
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Post by Luckychoices on Jun 20, 2015 19:35:11 GMT -8
Eagle Bay Capital Founder JC Parets said Thursday that he thinks buying Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) "makes very little sense" from a big picture, long-term perspective.
"If you're not looking at these Fibonacci levels, you're doing yourself a disservice," Parets said. I don’t care about their balance sheet. I don’t care about how many iPhones they sell or don’t sell.
Not sure where you are with this 2cents. I bolded these sentences, but not because I agree with them. Are you saying you're in agreement with Paret's comments? Not that there's anything wrong with that...
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