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Post by ccs on Oct 18, 2012 21:06:40 GMT -8
Holy crap! I watch a decent Thursday night football game and miss all this! You clowns are on fire tonight. Very entertaining!
But let's get to some meaningful stuff too....
What's the consensus on acceptable earnings vs. guidance? In football terms - or football gaming terms - I'm talking the over/under of earnings vs. guidance.
We all (sorry for the ass-umption) expect semi-crummy earnings numbers, but are betting on stellar (at least I am, and I guess admitting it here) guidance.
Let's play a little if/then.....
for example, if AAPL reports $X.XX EPS, and guides $XX.XX, then the stock price will (blank).
No pressure here. Just want some opinions.
I understand it's late on the right coast so I may repost in the morning if you don't mind. Willing to bet that Mav has a say at the 10 o'clock hour (left coast time).
I think this is relevant. What say you???
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Post by Zeke on Oct 18, 2012 22:00:10 GMT -8
Did someone say salmon?! EDIT: Excellent when pan-seared juuuust right. There used to be a law here in Oregon that you could only feed salmon to your servants a couple of times a week. Any more than that and you were in violation.
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Post by Zeke on Oct 18, 2012 22:02:42 GMT -8
I will no longer say exactly what spreads I buy or what leaps I buy and I will not say in advance when I am going to take profits. If we all do this, we will leave the pros in the dark. Feeling a little paranoid, are we? Sure, if I was pushing around 1B in AAPL options on a monthly basis, maybe someone would take notice. But at the "individual investor" level, even if my pot might be quite a bit larger than some but justifiably smaller than others, I don't think most big players care. OTOH, it's the aggregate that matters. Take Oct expiration, with that huge huge peak of calls at 700. If I had bought 650-700's instead of 600-630's, it wouldn't make much of a difference in the overall market....just a huge difference in my pot. The big players can just look at the open interest, or if they are a large AAPL options player then at their open positions. And while there might be that tiny blip way down there, it takes energy and/or money to move the stock, and they're going to be concerned about the largest positions. If you are swinging a huge stick, it's going to show up. If I bought 50,000 600-630's instead of 50, it would show up whether it was blogged or not. Likewise, if I blogged about picking up a few 600-630's, but it barely showed up in the open interest in comparison to much more popular positions, it just really wouldn't matter much. But I was helped with options by others posting their trades or thoughts, which helped get me to where I am, and so I try to post mine too. Call it the circle of life, karma, or just trying to give back. History has shown that quite the opposite is true. AFB has been monitored closely by the analysts and the hedgies. Some of the now departed oldbies at AFB said the same thing a few years ago and quit posting forecasts and trades. And I don't know what you call a small investor, but I know at least one AFB veteran with a $20M+ portfolio. I don't know if they are still paying attention to us in our new location. I suspect they are. I did a quick scan of our old site, BTW, and they now seem to be receiving one or two posts a day to most of their sections that I looked at. Smart move, guys.
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Post by Zeke on Oct 18, 2012 22:07:30 GMT -8
Maybe everyone has made money on this correction and I am the only person who was stupid. Oh, how I wish that were true... Me too. However, I won't be selling any more common until 2013, so I'm good. Patience, Grasshoppah!
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 18, 2012 22:16:59 GMT -8
I feel honored that PED's headline takeaway from today mirrors my post from earlier: My post: "Could this be what the opening casualties of a Steve Jobs' Thermonuclear War look like?" PED'S Headline: "Did Apple's war on Android just draw its first Google blood?" When the smoke clears, the sun shines brightly in Cupertino. We won't have too wait too long (Monday?) for a break in the clouds. Anyone else noticed that Zaky and PED are starting to call out the Apple naysayers... It's getting personal out there. I love it!
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 18, 2012 22:33:21 GMT -8
On September 18, when Apple was about $700 plus, I wrote a post here saying that I believed that there was a high probability that Apple would drop 10% to 12% in the near term, and that I was about to start watching the stock carefully on a day by day basis. I of course gave reasons for my view, which the moderator of this forum said struck her as useful. Within minutes, I was vehemently attacked for expressing this view by certain regulars, especially somebody named JD. In response, I suggested that participating in this forum was pointless, and my account, under the name goodwine, was deleted. Meanwhile, on September 20, I got out of call options on the stock but retained long term holdings. During the brief period of this discussion, some people expressed the view that it might be useful if people were permitted to express bearish views without being attacked. They were, and are, right. The fact is, I was the only person on this forum, which I have followed for a long time, to say that there was a serious short term prospect of a 10 to 12 percent reduction in share value. In fact, at the time, I was the only person to suggest that there was any significant prospect of a reduction in share value. Meanwhile, I am seeing on this forum the same thing that I see every time that Apple has a reversal. A fair bit of panic, a good deal of it expressed as attacks on anyone in sight who might have a negative view, even if short term, on the stock. The truth is, there was plenty of reason in mid-September to believe that Apple stock was in for a rough ride. I don't mind that people disagreed with that analysis, but I do mind that I was attacked for expressing it. Meanwhile, perhaps it is worth considering that many of the posts in reaction to Apple's performance in the last month demonstrate a great deal of emotionalism. There is this new medicine, Preparation H, for extended butthurt, FYI. Get over it. AAPL's drop was caused by the FUDsters (Kass, etc) talking their book, and the clueless (Cramer) rambling incoherently. Propagating FUD here only adds to the problem. Your preening here that you somehow predicted the unpredictable makes you look petty.
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Mav
Member
[img style="max-width:100%;" alt=" " src="http://www.forumup.it/images/smiles/simo.gif"]
Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Oct 18, 2012 22:39:02 GMT -8
You missed all the fun. iPad seared the salmon. cideRedge (changing forum gender? Seriously?) can terrorize us no more.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 18, 2012 22:43:41 GMT -8
You missed all the fun. iPad seared the salmon. cideRedge (changing forum gender? Seriously?) can terrorize us no more. Overwhelming, schadenfreude-filled day. Hard to keep up.
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Post by Big Al on Oct 19, 2012 1:10:11 GMT -8
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