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Post by Lstream on Oct 18, 2012 5:38:07 GMT -8
I did read it. Just don't agree that any of it is meaningful in light of the price drop.
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Post by roni on Oct 18, 2012 5:39:33 GMT -8
I did read it. Just don't agree that any of it is meaningful in light of the price drop. It is better than 637-638 not holding and becoming support. Whether it will remains to be seen.
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Post by Rupert on Oct 18, 2012 5:40:28 GMT -8
Nick Nansen: A New Freedom with Apple A New Freedom with Apple Posted on October 17, 2012 Apple has had a Bear raid by the pros when it should have been rallying into earnings. That was painful and unexpected. Now the other pro faction that trys to pin Apple on the weekly options is trying to hold Apple down under 650 by October expiration on Friday so that all the calls above 650 expire worthless and all the puts below 650 expire worthless. Talk about adding insult to injury. Apple investors feel beat up and confused. As I mentioned earlier, the old patterns we have relied on for 3-4 years are now suspect. The good news is Apple is about to have a record quarter in sales and earnings and is set to announce a new product, the ipad mini, and the refresh of the imac line. What absolutely has not changed is Apple has a bright future and the value swings between being really cheap and fully priced have not ended; they have actually been revitalized. The big sell offs that hit Apple once or twice a quarter will just be more unpredictable in the future. Rather than mourn the loss of predictability, I say let’s rejoice. Who needs predictable patterns? Think about it. If Apple continues to have big sell offs, that is all we need to buy it cheaply. The large pension and mutual funds will assure that Apple will not slip below a 13 or 13.5 PE ratio. Of course, that PE low changes slowly every quarter. It does not take a genius to figure out what that floor is and what direction it is trending from quarter to quarter. When the pros have done their best, we step in with the elephants and buy. That is as easy as it gets. What has changed is when we sell. Now, instead of waiting for earnings, I will sell piecemeal whenever Apple is in the upper ranges of it’s value range as determined by the high PE it has registered the last few quarters. I will no longer wait for the week before earnings to sell. It is possible I will sell some then, but I just will not plan on it. In a sense, I feel free. I take profits when I want to, not on some schedule that the pros know about. We all need to be Ninja traders and camouflage our intentions. I will no longer say exactly what spreads I buy or what leaps I buy and I will not say in advance when I am going to take profits. If we all do this, we will leave the pros in the dark. I will limit my commentary to what I think earnings will be and what I am seeing as the current value range for Apple. I will also offer my opinion on whether Apple is in the profit taking zone, or the buying zone. I will not offer up a road map that the pros can tee off on. I know for a fact that the hedge funds that trade Apple are aware of what people are thinking and planning both in the public and private groups. They know everything. No one is safe to just tee the ball up for these pros any more. They have become much more aggressive. The good news is the pros want Apple to go through these violent sell offs and rallys. Why? Because they make as much on the way down as they do on the way up. Once you understand that, everything becomes very simple. The big value investors, the mutual and pension funds, control the upper and lower boundaries that the pros can drive this stock to. We retail investors are just along for the ride. Make sure it is the ride up and not the ride down. LINK: nanseninvestments.com/
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 18, 2012 5:48:08 GMT -8
VZ probably has people scratching their head. I know I am. This combined with the court ruling in Europe against AAPL and thud, we drop. Just a matter of how far.
That UE number is crazy, especially after last week.
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Post by roni on Oct 18, 2012 5:48:46 GMT -8
So far so good as far as that support level.
Hope Nick is not losing sleep about the pros looking at his road map.
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Post by appledoc on Oct 18, 2012 6:01:37 GMT -8
The Verizon number means ZERO to me. It's impossible to extrapolate that number into overall quarter sales for Apple.
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Post by terps530 on Oct 18, 2012 6:02:13 GMT -8
what % of iphones, other than the iphone 5, do you guys think were sold from the iphone5 launch date (last 10 days of quarter). Trying to extrapolate data here:
for extrapolating and estimating, one could assume all 2.45m iphones 4s, 4, 3s etc were sold in the first 80 days of the quarter and the .65m iphone 5's were sold in the last 10 days.
but with the reduced old iphone prices, im sure some of those were still activated in the last 10 days of the quarter. i wonder how much?
otherwise, 2.45m iphones in 80 days is proportional to 2.75m iphones in 90 days. 2,75m in q3 2012 vs 2m is q3 2011 is a 37.5% increase
Sooooooo my big estimate is 20-22 iphone not 5's. So maybe 30m is a nice round number for a total iphone estimate for the quarter!
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 18, 2012 6:10:23 GMT -8
VZ, pushes Android phones, we know that and WS knows it. 3.1 is a solid number for the lead up qtr. I really had no idea what to expect from VZ. Judging by the numbers it would appear that the 4/4S did pretty good. Losing in Europe sucked, but was probably expected.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Oct 18, 2012 6:15:04 GMT -8
JD, Be wery, wery, caweful
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 18, 2012 6:17:48 GMT -8
Horace Dediu @asymco If Verizon maintains the same percent of global sales as it has in the past, iPhone sales were between 26mn and 34mn. (My set is 27mn)
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 18, 2012 6:26:46 GMT -8
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 18, 2012 6:39:05 GMT -8
Was kidding about weeklies. Just an indication of what an opportunity I think AAPL is here. Buy the F'n Dip.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 18, 2012 6:40:13 GMT -8
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 18, 2012 6:44:41 GMT -8
50% of VZ smartphone sales were Android and 46% were iPhone. To me, this is extremely unbelievably positive. In a full quarter with the iPhone 5 these percentages should flip flop or be even better than that for iPhone. I'm liking the next two quarters in a major way for AAPL.
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Post by sponge on Oct 18, 2012 6:45:41 GMT -8
today early action is further proof that WS can't count or they are deteremined to keep aapl down as much as possible until next week. I am betting it is the latter.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 18, 2012 6:52:47 GMT -8
3.1 million does suggest that the total iphone number for the qtr should be above 25 mil.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 18, 2012 6:55:39 GMT -8
I will no longer say exactly what spreads I buy or what leaps I buy and I will not say in advance when I am going to take profits. If we all do this, we will leave the pros in the dark. Feeling a little paranoid, are we? Sure, if I was pushing around 1B in AAPL options on a monthly basis, maybe someone would take notice. But at the "individual investor" level, even if my pot might be quite a bit larger than some but justifiably smaller than others, I don't think most big players care. OTOH, it's the aggregate that matters. Take Oct expiration, with that huge huge peak of calls at 700. If I had bought 650-700's instead of 600-630's, it wouldn't make much of a difference in the overall market....just a huge difference in my pot. The big players can just look at the open interest, or if they are a large AAPL options player then at their open positions. And while there might be that tiny blip way down there, it takes energy and/or money to move the stock, and they're going to be concerned about the largest positions. If you are swinging a huge stick, it's going to show up. If I bought 50,000 600-630's instead of 50, it would show up whether it was blogged or not. Likewise, if I blogged about picking up a few 600-630's, but it barely showed up in the open interest in comparison to much more popular positions, it just really wouldn't matter much. But I was helped with options by others posting their trades or thoughts, which helped get me to where I am, and so I try to post mine too. Call it the circle of life, karma, or just trying to give back.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 18, 2012 7:04:46 GMT -8
today early action is further proof that WS can't count or they are deteremined to keep aapl down as much as possible until next week. I am betting it is the latter. Uncertainty, or really the whole FUD thing, is easy when there is some news that is not easily digested by the masses and volume is low. The week or so before earnings has been the prime time for FUD on AAPL, with mysterious people coming out with articles saying things like "Supply of such and such part might be low", or whatever they can legally or maybe not quite legally say to put some FUD in but not really be on the hook for anything. Shaw Wu got into this a couple times, though it's now been 2 years or so. I keep expecting more negativity from him, but he's been on a positive streak for a while. Now maybe it's all on the up and up, or just people wanting some attention or page hits. But it's not too hard to take the next step and think that maybe a hedgie funded some "research". Now maybe that's being paranoid! But if you expect it, or at least watch for it, it can give a good buying opportunity. Let those "big players" work for you, not against you. (planning on buying a little tomorrow, but I might need to try a day early)
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Post by rosie on Oct 18, 2012 7:09:39 GMT -8
JD: according to DBWCCT (Dumb Bunny Weekly Call Ceiling Theory), you should be selling puts or bull put spreads, NOT buying calls. Lovey outdoes herself once again. And a kindly warning it is.
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Post by rosie on Oct 18, 2012 7:11:36 GMT -8
I will no longer say exactly what spreads I buy or what leaps I buy and I will not say in advance when I am going to take profits. If we all do this, we will leave the pros in the dark. Feeling a little paranoid, are we? Sure, if I was pushing around 1B in AAPL options on a monthly basis, maybe someone would take notice. But at the "individual investor" level, even if my pot might be quite a bit larger than some but justifiably smaller than others, I don't think most big players care. OTOH, it's the aggregate that matters. Take Oct expiration, with that huge huge peak of calls at 700. If I had bought 650-700's instead of 600-630's, it wouldn't make much of a difference in the overall market....just a huge difference in my pot. The big players can just look at the open interest, or if they are a large AAPL options player then at their open positions. And while there might be that tiny blip way down there, it takes energy and/or money to move the stock, and they're going to be concerned about the largest positions. If you are swinging a huge stick, it's going to show up. If I bought 50,000 600-630's instead of 50, it would show up whether it was blogged or not. Likewise, if I blogged about picking up a few 600-630's, but it barely showed up in the open interest in comparison to much more popular positions, it just really wouldn't matter much. But I was helped with options by others posting their trades or thoughts, which helped get me to where I am, and so I try to post mine too. Call it the circle of life, karma, or just trying to give back. +1000
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 18, 2012 7:19:01 GMT -8
3.1 million does suggest that the total iphone number for the qtr should be above 25 mil. I agree.
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 18, 2012 7:21:19 GMT -8
I have no real reason to think this but I am going out on a limb and assuming VZ got 500K phones for launch weekend. They then sold ~30% more in the remainder of their Q. We know Apple sold "over 5MM" iPhones. If we assume 5.5MM iPhones were sold opening weekend and then assume all carriers sold 30% more the remainder of the Q we get to 7.15MM iPhone 5's for the Q. So many assumptions and missing pieces of information that are needed here but I think this is the ballpark number for the Q. If we assume global iPhone 4 and 4S sales were down the same 9% they were down at VZ we get to 23.7MM older iPhone 5 units in the September Q. If we add iPhone 7.15MM 5's we get to 30.9MM iPhones for the September Q. This doesn't really seem possible to me but it gives me comfort that the number will be better than some of the 25MM or so estimates I've seen.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 18, 2012 7:23:42 GMT -8
I will no longer say exactly what spreads I buy or what leaps I buy and I will not say in advance when I am going to take profits. If we all do this, we will leave the pros in the dark. Feeling a little paranoid, are we? I used to feel the same, and in some cases I still do. Suffice to say, anything you type here is unlikely going to move the stock unless it is a product idea that an analyst happens to read then mentions in a note. What I am reluctant to post are bearish views that have been deduced purely from technical analysis, as I just end up having people waging war on me quoting lots of stuff about fundamentals, when it was technicals, not fundamentals which formed my view. So, if as I did on Tuesday after the close, express a lack of faith in the longevity of a rally it's because of some technical signal I've seen and not because I have suddenly "lost the faith".
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 18, 2012 7:23:58 GMT -8
Apple is rumoured to be buying Color, the biggest joke in the startup scene in years. Stand back and watch the ridicule and FUD. From an optics perspective, this will be a mess if true. Well, Color raised $41 million in venture capital, and probably never produced a dime in revenue, definitely never developed any kind of user base or success of any sort. In other words, I don't think there's any way the carcass of this company would be worth more than 10 cents on the dollar. And I would not be concerned over Apple spending $4 million on anything ;-)
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Post by sponge on Oct 18, 2012 7:26:03 GMT -8
Feeling a little paranoid, are we? Sure, if I was pushing around 1B in AAPL options on a monthly basis, maybe someone would take notice. But at the "individual investor" level, even if my pot might be quite a bit larger than some but justifiably smaller than others, I don't think most big players care. OTOH, it's the aggregate that matters. Take Oct expiration, with that huge huge peak of calls at 700. If I had bought 650-700's instead of 600-630's, it wouldn't make much of a difference in the overall market....just a huge difference in my pot. The big players can just look at the open interest, or if they are a large AAPL options player then at their open positions. And while there might be that tiny blip way down there, it takes energy and/or money to move the stock, and they're going to be concerned about the largest positions. If you are swinging a huge stick, it's going to show up. If I bought 50,000 600-630's instead of 50, it would show up whether it was blogged or not. Likewise, if I blogged about picking up a few 600-630's, but it barely showed up in the open interest in comparison to much more popular positions, it just really wouldn't matter much. But I was helped with options by others posting their trades or thoughts, which helped get me to where I am, and so I try to post mine too. Call it the circle of life, karma, or just trying to give back. +1000 I am not so sure. I have spoken to Nick on a number of occasions. He is well know among option traders who frequent most large forums. He is closely connected with AZ, stocktweets, AppleSanity board, and a few others. He is getting well over 200K visitors in one week and there is more I can share but to keep it private. Hedge funds have been frequent visitors of his website. If 2000 people get moved to get into an option for a month and each buys 20 contracts you can easily make a few million from all of them by simply making sure aapl closes at 649 instead of 651. And you can repeat that process every day. WS is using the options market to steal millions from those who have a reasonable expectation that aapl will move up.
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Post by Lstream on Oct 18, 2012 7:34:19 GMT -8
Apple is rumoured to be buying Color, the biggest joke in the startup scene in years. Stand back and watch the ridicule and FUD. From an optics perspective, this will be a mess if true. Well, Color raised $41 million in venture capital, and probably never produced a dime in revenue, definitely never developed any kind of user base or success of any sort. In other words, I don't think there's any way the carcass of this company would be worth more than 10 cents on the dollar. And I would not be concerned over Apple spending $4 million on anything ;-) The rumours are saying 10's of millions. The money will be irrelevant, and Apple likely have their reasons. But whatever they are, you can be sure that the headlines will be full of ridicule about Apple buying the highest profile bust in recent VC memory.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 18, 2012 7:34:20 GMT -8
WS is using the options market to steal millions from those who have a reasonable expectation that aapl will move up. Nonetheless, they will still try and steal from the most possible people. They can get that from the open interest, they do not need to go reading stuff posted on forums in the hope that one specific person might post something about their trades.
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Post by flyonthewall on Oct 18, 2012 7:41:46 GMT -8
Good to read an article that counters all the FUD out there. A nice 5 point argument for Apple being "...a sure thing,": The Apple Confusion
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Post by flyonthewall on Oct 18, 2012 7:49:19 GMT -8
Another, much stronger case for Apple and its future. I particularly like argument #3: Mobile Budget Has Become Non-Discretionary 10 Reasons I'm Buying Apple NowEnjoy!
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Post by roni on Oct 18, 2012 7:50:00 GMT -8
WS is using the options market to steal millions from those who have a reasonable expectation that aapl will move up. Individuals have responsibility for their investment/speculation decisions. WS apparently has used the options market to make me a lot of money over the past 4 years. Thank you, WS.
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