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Post by mbeauch on Oct 18, 2012 7:50:03 GMT -8
Wheeles, you did good to jump ship the other day. You said it was because of signals you follow. Nobody should begrudge you for that. You trade frequently, and people should be able to discern the difference from buy and hold. I really wanted to put the 630's in the rear view mirror, this just sucks.
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Post by Tetrachloride on Oct 18, 2012 8:07:10 GMT -8
PE is currently 15.00.
Tinfoil hat time, just because its overcast outside.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 18, 2012 8:08:56 GMT -8
Wheeles, you did good to jump ship the other day. You said it was because of signals you follow. Nobody should begrudge you for that. You trade frequently, and people should be able to discern the difference from buy and hold. I really wanted to put the 630's in the rear view mirror, this just sucks. I make maybe one or two trades a day. Some weeks I may just sit on a position and let it run. For me the objective of "trading" is to try and remove hope and fear from the picture and buy and sell based on what my charts are telling me. This may simply be a case of looking at a longer term trend and getting on board that trend on a pullback towards it, or look to take those trades with a greater chance of success over the next day or so. There are some patterns that I have watched play out time and again, and have kicked myself for simply not trading them when they pop up just because they run counter to what everyone else is saying. Given the bullish bias of AFB (which is quite understandable) it makes it far more difficult to express a bearish short term view, which often is just a case of AAPL about to offer up a discount for a limited period.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 18, 2012 8:12:30 GMT -8
I actually think AAPL is holding up quite well at present. We had a break out short signal fairly early on, yet the wheels on the AAPL bus haven't exactly come flying off. Instead it keeps trying to move higher but keeps hitting resistance. The question is what will give up first, the buying pressure or the resistance?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 18, 2012 8:18:08 GMT -8
(...)What I am reluctant to post are bearish views that have been deduced purely from technical analysis, as I just end up having people waging war on me quoting lots of stuff about fundamentals, when it was technicals, not fundamentals which formed my view. So, if as I did on Tuesday after the close, express a lack of faith in the longevity of a rally it's because of some technical signal I've seen and not because I have suddenly "lost the faith". No war-waging in the technicals threads, and I am VERY glad you're participating in those as I always highly value your TA perspective!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 18, 2012 8:19:33 GMT -8
I actually think AAPL is holding up quite well at present. We had a break out short signal fairly early on, yet the wheels on the AAPL bus haven't exactly come flying off. Instead it keeps trying to move higher but keeps hitting resistance. The question is what will give up first, the buying pressure or the resistance? IMHO, that second to lower daily BB is key. BTW, what do you call that one?? I have the (20,1) and the (20,2) settings, so I have 5 lines in total. Middle is SMA-20.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 18, 2012 8:22:27 GMT -8
Not sure here, but I think the indices might have just had a "last flush" of popped stops for the shorts... Watch for possible whipsaw...
Might not be a bad place to add some (cheap) index hedges for your longs.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 18, 2012 8:32:34 GMT -8
No war-waging in the technicals threads, and I am VERY glad you're participating in those as I always highly value your TA perspective!! Hey, I'm not waging a war. Was I not one of the first people to start getting bullish again on the previous pullback when people were going on about the 100 DMA? I distinctly remember last Friday saying that we were about to climb to 635, when we were below 630. Admittedly, it didn't happen the same day as I expected, despite a valiant attempt at 633, but it did happen about an hour into regular hours on Monday. Likewise, I imagine Monday could see a bit of a lift as those dark options clouds are blown away this Friday.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 18, 2012 8:33:44 GMT -8
SEE GOOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 18, 2012 8:35:00 GMT -8
No war-waging in the technicals threads, and I am VERY glad you're participating in those as I always highly value your TA perspective!! Hey, I'm not waging a war. (...) I know you aren't!! I'm saying war-waging doesn't happen in the technicals threads.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 18, 2012 8:35:44 GMT -8
HOLY CRAP: GOOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by Lstream on Oct 18, 2012 8:37:52 GMT -8
HOLY CRAP: GOOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! OMG - and I dumped those bear spreads
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 18, 2012 8:38:09 GMT -8
GOOG MISSED BIG - GETTING KILLED - REPORTED EARLY SUDDENLY IN MIDDAY Maybe the $$$ will come back to AAPL?!
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Post by wheeles on Oct 18, 2012 8:38:12 GMT -8
IMHO, that second to lower daily BB is key. BTW, what do you call that one?? I have the (20,1) and the (20,2) settings, so I have 5 lines in total. Middle is SMA-20. I only use the standard SMA Bollingers with a deviation of 2. I do however use acceleration bands and STARC bands. For me the daily lower acceleration band is what I am looking at, and that is sitting around 624.50. That's not a prediction, BTW, just a line that I believe will offer a decent amount of support if we should get that low.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 18, 2012 8:39:44 GMT -8
The rumours are saying 10's of millions. No. F'ing. Way. You're right some pundits will question or ridicule it--but I expect the price will be so low that such won't get any traction--if there's even a deal at all. EDIT: geez, "traction", not "attraction"
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Post by wheeles on Oct 18, 2012 8:40:04 GMT -8
GOOG MISSED BIG - GETTING KILLED - REPORTED EARLY SUDDENLY IN MIDDAY Maybe the $$$ will come back to AAPL?! I was wondering why AAPL had sudden put one wheel of the bus into a ditch.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 18, 2012 8:44:37 GMT -8
Given the bullish bias of AFB (which is quite understandable) it makes it far more difficult to express a bearish short term view, which often is just a case of AAPL about to offer up a discount for a limited period. We all put up with so much "Apple is overpriced" FUD, that some of us develop thin skin about seeing that here--and then some of those people confuse your short-term predictions of pullbacks with that crap.
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Post by podboy on Oct 18, 2012 8:47:59 GMT -8
Do Nick Nansen or Trading Apple ever post here?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 18, 2012 8:55:12 GMT -8
If 2000 people get moved to get into an option for a month and each buys 20 contracts you can easily make a few million from all of them by simply making sure aapl closes at 649 instead of 651. And you can repeat that process every day. But it's not that easy. You're talking about a heard of sheep that don't think for themselves, and just blindly buy what everyone else is. If that happens, supply and demand will kick in, and they'll get screwed when buying them with a higher premium too. The difference between closing at 649 and 651 isn't an all or nothing for most postitions. Either it's straight calls or puts that were likely bought for more than a buck, and so you'd still be losing money either way. Or it's a spread, where the $2 difference is a small portion of the complete width of the spread. Sure, closing just under 650 completely sinks those holding 650 calls, but they were screwed long before that if they bought the 650's for $2, $5, or $15. Now, there's been some good articles on pegging and how it also naturally happens with the hedging that goes on as we approach expiration, so this isn't saying that it doesn't happen. Infact, if buying relatively near term spreads I always look at the open interest and try to be under the big ones, which are often at increments of $50 with AAPL, so I might pick up a 640-690 instead of a 650-700. But I see what you mean. If I felt I had a legion of followers ready to throw down $100k to duplicate any trade I posted, and if I actually saw the open interest change accordingly in the 2 days following such a post, it would put my trade more at risk merely because it's now a target or hump. But I wouldn't be worried about "people" reading the post and working against it, but rather them seeing the change in open interest, and working against that. At that point, I could see "hiding" my trades by making a subscription place like Zaky did, while still posting general feelings about the stock. By limiting those that see the exact trades and act as sheep, it would hopefully no longer make those positions get a much larger open interest than other positions, and thus keep it from being a target. I understand the idea. And there were some times after having huge losses that I would be able to justify that sort of paranoia, even though most big losses were tied to big overall market moves. But I still have to think that the overall change in open interest in the 2 days following a "suggestion", or heck just the following 4 hours of volume compared to strikes close by, is fairly small. But hey, my legion is small, nonexistant, or not sheep. When I posted a trade last week with less than an hour to go (maybe a Jan 14 690-730), my trade was at least half the volume on one of the sides, and there was no more volume the rest of the day.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 18, 2012 8:55:34 GMT -8
Well, we got pulled down with GOOG, but maybe people will move out of GOOG and come back to AAPL. Google hurt the whole market, DOW, S&P, and NAS. Here is a thought. Apple is doing its best to get away from Google, maybe those couple of hundred mil IOS devices would all switch to Yahoo and really do some damage.
In the reporting area, Marketwatch is pathetic. I expect more out of the WSJ.
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Post by wheeles on Oct 18, 2012 9:01:12 GMT -8
We all put up with so much "Apple is overpriced" FUD, that some of us develop thin skin about seeing that here--and then some of those people confuse your short-term predictions of pullbacks with that crap. That's understandable. I guess it all comes down to how you put a price on something. Because there is no exact way of pricing something other than what someone is willing to buy/sell for, there ends up being a lot of wiggle room for fluctuations. I try to catch some of the fluctuations and use TA to do that. Fundamental analysis will get your team to the ball park; TA will give clues as to whether the next batter up will strike out or hit a home run.
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Post by ccs on Oct 18, 2012 9:01:38 GMT -8
WOW
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 18, 2012 9:03:17 GMT -8
WOW, is right, the stock has been halted according to CNBC.
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Post by greedynoob on Oct 18, 2012 9:07:29 GMT -8
Meh... I thought you've been clear and people have overreacted. But maybe, if you want to bother, you could smooth things out in the future by being more explicit about what term you're talking about.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,629
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 18, 2012 9:08:37 GMT -8
I had been thinking about selling my Goog shares this fall, or considered writing a call against them. I initially thought about that back at $680-700, and was glad I waited. Now it looks like I'm a little late, at least to be close to the peak.
I'd feel a bit better if AAPL would climb back up to 635 or 638. It would make any purchases a little more expensive, but I'd like a little breathing room before seeing 630 going in to tomorrow. 620 would still be a good profit, but closing tomorrow above 630 would feel that much better.
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 18, 2012 9:11:31 GMT -8
They have dropped AAPL on little volume for the size of the move. crooks.
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 18, 2012 9:13:14 GMT -8
Can anyone explain why on earth they decided to to this in the middle of a day instead of waiting until after hours and letting the company call play out so that it could be done in an orderly manner? Now they are suggesting that it was a "fat finger" on the reporting agent's side! WTF ..makes no sense to have done this in the middle of the day and I would NOT be surprised if indeed there was a screw up in reporting. The street was blind-sighted at so many levels! Unreal
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Post by phoebear611 on Oct 18, 2012 9:14:45 GMT -8
GOOG and AMZN are in a race to put products out there that are NOT profitable....hmmm....wonder if there is a third player who is crushing it?
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Post by macwire on Oct 18, 2012 9:16:49 GMT -8
Can anyone explain why on earth they decided to to this in the middle of a day instead of waiting until after hours and letting the company call play out so that it could be done in an orderly manner? Now they are suggesting that it was a "fat finger" on the reporting agent's side! WTF ..makes no sense to have done this in the middle of the day and I would NOT be surprised if indeed there was a screw up in reporting. The street was blind-sighted at so many levels! Unreal At lunch time no less. Released even included a placeholder for Larry's quote. I don't see a guidance number either for next Q
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Post by Lstream on Oct 18, 2012 9:16:54 GMT -8
You guys think we will get this from Google as an explanation?
"Umm, so you see it turns out that we got this Android thing kinda wrong. We were right that ads on Mobile are for sure the next big thing, but all those cheapskate Android customers turn out not to surf or buy squat. Who can blame us for not figuring that one out? Well, that ain't all. Also turns out that POS Motorola is LOSING money!! And guess what - that hurt our results! No one could see that one coming either.
So today, we are switching strategies in order to reclaim Mobile leadership. You guys can't see this cause you are on a conference call, but all of us have "Go Apple - iOS rules" T shirts on. This is part of our new initiative that amounts to begging Apple to take us back. Eric has a new tatoo (hint - more Apple fanboyism) that he will be showing Tim Cook, if and when he gets a meeting. We figure if Eric promises to show it, that Tim will at least consider the meeting.
What about Android you ask? We are giving it to that pack of screw-ups, previously known as Motorola Mobility. Then we are selling that entire POS back to the public in an IPO. Watch for more news on that coming soon. Don't be evil - please buy some."
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