4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 21, 2015 14:15:21 GMT -8
I highly suspect the company will be out there tomorrow buying shares - or at least they can be if they want to be. I think they have to leave it 48 hours or so. Their blackout days for insiders extends a few days past earnings , but I believe it's all voluntary by the company, basically a safe harbor to avoid most likelihood of prosecution for an individual (thus not mandated by the SEC). BTW, they also don't allow options, but a manager in our group had a BMW X5 or whatever with a custom plate of AAPL puts or THX Puts or something like that. It's been over 10 years now, so it's likely not still there at DA6. The overall issue is that info has to be public. Since Apple released their earnings, along with supporting data, I doubt they would get in trouble for buying tomorrow as long as they didn't restate data in a big way. OTOH, it's often good for the stock to find it's own floor and support. Then they can buy and help the spring loaded jump from an oversold price.
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Post by rickag on Jul 21, 2015 14:23:35 GMT -8
Don't care, my AAPL cost basis is ~ $0.67, so my dividend yield is 310%. Take that WS. Are you ex-Apple badge? So low? ? What is ex-Apple badge? I originally bought AAPL @ ~ $19/ share so went through 2 -2 for one splits and o1 - 7 for one split. Got out of AAPL totally twice, one tme increased and one time lost value, my cost basis is actually less but I am not quibbling. Been in a company audit all day, just now saw the damage. WTF
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 21, 2015 15:18:13 GMT -8
AH is AH. Meanwhile, don't mind me. I'm taking a flyer based on a few (or, 2?) data points that Greater China FQ3 segment revenue could more than double year-over-year. Reasons? Latest China Mobile data plus a muted FQ3 2014 Greater China number (aka soft compare) that I forgot about. My fallback prediction: YOY growth, even if not 100%+, should be higher than 71%. If it IS around 70%, I'll LOL. You'll just have to take my word for it. Greater China rev? $13.23B.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 21, 2015 15:31:13 GMT -8
So Tim lets is slip that June Apple Watch sales were higher than May or April. Yes, the backlog enters into this, but so does the Retail roll out. An intriguing little point to combat those who claim that Watch sales 'fell off a cliff'.
If we assume 3.7 million watches and June was the highest month of the three, I'm o.k. with that.
And Forex was not deemed a big problem last quarter, a headwind to overcome. This time around it mattered. I wonder just how much it could be quantified beyond the hedge they had in place.
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Post by osx10 on Jul 21, 2015 15:40:19 GMT -8
Low on coin, but looking to add to long position at $119.25 - we'll see if 200 day holds - 9:30 to 9:35am ought to be interesting - seen this movie before...
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Post by ericinaustin on Jul 21, 2015 15:51:49 GMT -8
Just look at China ! Project that growth out 6 quarters and tell me buying this stock at this value isn't like having a money tree that hands you money from stupid Wall Street types.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jul 21, 2015 16:01:19 GMT -8
AH is AH. Meanwhile, don't mind me. I'm taking a flyer based on a few (or, 2?) data points that Greater China FQ3 segment revenue could more than double year-over-year. Reasons? Latest China Mobile data plus a muted FQ3 2014 Greater China number (aka soft compare) that I forgot about. My fallback prediction: YOY growth, even if not 100%+, should be higher than 71%. If it IS around 70%, I'll LOL. You'll just have to take my word for it. Greater China rev? $13.23B. So, Mav, just so I'm clear on this. Your estimate (WAG) was ~ $13.5B. Apple missed your estimate by coming in at $13.23B. And now we're down $9+ AH? Thanks, Mav. Just thanks. Next quarter, stop already with the estimates.
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Post by nagrani on Jul 21, 2015 16:16:26 GMT -8
If i can get a 100/105 jan 2016 BCS for 4 bucks or less - I'll jump back in. 25% return if apple is > 105 in January. Nice and safe
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 21, 2015 16:31:13 GMT -8
If we assume 3.7 million watches and June was the highest month of the three, I'm o.k. with that. What's the assumptions to get 3.7M? Back of the envelope, without much thought, I just went with an ASP of $500 (a lot of $300-$350, but some of those high end ones too, plus extra or upgraded bands and such). If previously available items in that category just stayed flat, it was an extra $1B in revenue due to the watch. Thus 2M units if that ASP is rightish. Take away some from the ASP, and assume things like the Apple TV sold more than a year ago, and you're flat on the guess. Seems like it's in the right ballpark, and then underestimate to 1.7-1.8M units until told otherwise. EDIT: at about 20:30 into the call, he says the Other category was up 49% YOY, and the watch accounted for "well over 100% of the growth of the category", more than offsetting the decline of iPod and Accessory sales. So maybe up the guesstimate to 2.1-2.25M units, and the slightly scaled back estimate to 1.9-2.1M units That's my WAG, but it's just that.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jul 21, 2015 16:32:45 GMT -8
You guys might hate me for this post, but I want to be real here. Looking closely at the numbers,Apple did in fact report disappointing results relative to "expectations" on iPhones and on Watch.
We can agree that the AH reaction to this expectations miss is overblown, but it's different than last quarter. Last quarter, Apple exceeded al categories and the stock still stalled.
This is different. Looking at PED's summary, the professional analysts expected: 49.94B in Rev and 1.83 EPS based on 49.09M iPhones sold and 3.25B in the Other category (Watches+)
Actual results were: 49.6 in Rev and 1.85 EPS based on 47.53 iPhones sold and 1.6B in Other.
So Rev and EPS were basically "in-line" with expectations but iPhone numbers were a little "light" and the "Watch is a failure" crowd has serious ammo they can use to keep spreading uncertainty and doubt.
The PE is basement low, so hopefully we won't experience much of a prolonged drop. But people who have been looking every quarter for a slowdown in Apple's future business will have stuff they can use in this report to predict future disappointments.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 21, 2015 16:47:58 GMT -8
If i can get a 100/105 jan 2016 BCS for 4 bucks or less - I'll jump back in. 25% return if apple is > 105 in January. Nice and safe If the closing midpoints were buyable (and they likely were with the volume today of stock), you might have been able to nab it for that price today. Place the order. I bet you can get it for that, or even a couple nickels or couple dimes less. Though getting it there just all depends on the orders. Personally, I'm going to look at placing my upcoming dividend and maybe some shares in the Roth into some spreads. 25% in 6 months is nice, but that's 2 dividends to possibly be picked off on. Instead, I'll look in the 50-100% potential range. Maybe as low as a '16 Jan 110-130 (~13.5@close, so 48% potential, or sell early if it gets above 130 for 20-30%), but I think I have some of those. So maybe some 115-140 Jan '17's or something like that (~12@close, so 108% potential). Either way, I'll double check that I wouldn't lose much if any with a low P/E and positive but low growth. It doesn't protect everything since I wouldn't be using P/E of 10 from 2 years ago, and other bad things could happen. But it protects a bit, especially if I could get a breakeven at 10-12% earnings growth and a P/E of 12.5 (wow, 125.32 at '17 expiration with 10%, or 128.81 @ 12%....so that's about right for a WA low point)
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 21, 2015 16:59:51 GMT -8
This is different. Looking at PED's summary, the professional analysts expected: 49.94B in Rev and 1.83 EPS based on 49.09M iPhones sold and 3.25B in the Other category (Watches+) Actual results were: 49.6 in Rev and 1.85 EPS based on 47.53 iPhones sold and 1.6B in Other. I'm seeing 2,641M for other, listed as "Includes sales of Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats Electronics, iPod and Apple-branded and third-party accessories." That's up from 1,689M in Q2 2015, and 1,767M from Q3 2014, so roughly up $1B or $900M, in comparison. finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-reports-record-third-quarter-203000107.html(I didn't check multiple sources, and I missed that part of the CC, but want to rehear what they said ~22-25 minutes in about cash and something else) (BTW, the call is available on iTunes at itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/apple-quarterly-earnings-call/id74942331?mt=2 It's showing up now for me, but not downloading yet) That still makes it lower than the average Other estimate from PED, but not anywhere as bad.
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Post by sponge on Jul 21, 2015 17:15:29 GMT -8
Well just listened to the conference call. Great quarter, but Apple looks way beyond 90 days. Clearly they continue to be bullish on the iPhone, IPad, Macs, and Apple Watch. He confirmed what I expected regarding China and the impact of the stock market.
The stock sold off because of the iPhone numbers and I think everyone including myself became too bullish on the growth rate. Guidance was lighter then usual but not enough to sell the stock given the rate of the growth in this quarter. But if you listen to TIm, it is clear they smell blood in the water regarding switchers. To growth of 35% when 73% of the base has yet to upgrade is an amazing statistic. Clearly the prior iPhones are good enough products, that many customers don't need to get the latest. The growth is coming from new folks and switchers. Their marketing campaign is starting to move in that direction.
The Apple Watch numbers are impressive given what they told us. They are selling faster then prior products ( that should be no surprise given the large base) but the HALO affect is in full swing and gathering speed. The other category grew 56% with severe supply constraints and distribution points. I now understand why Apple does not want to release numbers. It shows competitors not only what sells, but also how the supply chain is working. Part of the reason Samsung was able to cheat is because they knew enough about the supply chain to make necessary changes to their own manufacturing. TC said Christmas will be good for the Apple Watch and they expanding distribution much faster then I had anticipated. WS has no idea how big this product is short term or long term.
The stock moved almost 8% but in the opposite direction. I think we will recover towards 135 but it may take a few months. Apple should accelerate the repurchase program now more then ever. This seem like deja vu from January 2014 when we dropped 8% only to recover the whole drop 2.5 weeks later. iPhone numbers spooked the street and it sold off hard. Time will tell if we recover as quickly. We may revisit the 200 DMA go below it for kicks.
The lesson is to only buy after earnings regardless of weather you are bullish or bearish. You can miss the 5-8% moves, but still do well long term. We are still up over 50% from 12 months ago.
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Post by macwire on Jul 21, 2015 17:55:13 GMT -8
So let's see ... looks like TTM earnings of 8.66, current price about 120, um, isn't that like a P/E of under 14?!??! WTF? Honestly who cares We all know better
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 21, 2015 18:53:32 GMT -8
Luckychoices: I'm helping! Be thankful I was right. Greater China "saved the quarter".
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 21, 2015 18:55:17 GMT -8
You guys might hate me for this post, but I want to be real here. Looking closely at the numbers,Apple did in fact report disappointing results relative to "expectations" on iPhones and on Watch. We can agree that the AH reaction to this expectations miss is overblown, but it's different than last quarter. Last quarter, Apple exceeded al categories and the stock still stalled. This is different. Looking at PED's summary, the professional analysts expected: 49.94B in Rev and 1.83 EPS based on 49.09M iPhones sold and 3.25B in the Other category (Watches+) Actual results were: 49.6 in Rev and 1.85 EPS based on 47.53 iPhones sold and 1.6B in Other. So Rev and EPS were basically "in-line" with expectations but iPhone numbers were a little "light" and the "Watch is a failure" crowd has serious ammo they can use to keep spreading uncertainty and doubt. The PE is basement low, so hopefully we won't experience much of a prolonged drop. But people who have been looking every quarter for a slowdown in Apple's future business will have stuff they can use in this report to predict future disappointments. Dude, this is high 20%s growth in revs and net income from gigantic bases and it only "disappointed" because of a graduated Watch launch. Any company growing "even" 20% from these revenue and net income bases is unprecedented. And completely unprecedented in terms of a pure play tech company. HP and IBM combined do not match Apple's revenue now.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 21, 2015 19:22:39 GMT -8
Luckychoices: I'm helping! Be thankful I was right. Greater China "saved the quarter". Really good work on China's contribution to Revs. Apple's growth there is impressive.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 21, 2015 19:23:32 GMT -8
Most obvious call ever: FQ4 will be close to FQ3's YOY growth rate for Greater China if 6S is available as first-stage launch country.
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Post by gtrplyr on Jul 21, 2015 20:01:12 GMT -8
Disappointed at how WS treated our stock today ... not with the results. From $1.29 to $1.85 over 1 year .... that's fantastic, period.
I can't say that I'm surprised as I've been a shareholder since '03 and I've seen this many times .... it still sucks.
I will add that the watch discussion is really mute as Apple has enough revenue already and it really makes very little difference at this point how many watches they sell .... the thing that kills me is investors whine about slowing growth when the stock is priced like a freaking utility. IF we had a 40+ PE slowing growth arguments would be valid ... at this point I would tell those analysts to STFU ... and if I was Tim I'd be backing up the truck ... without any growth Apple could be a PRIVATE company in 7 -10 years ... easy.
Cheers to the longs !
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Jul 21, 2015 21:14:03 GMT -8
If we assume 3.7 million watches and June was the highest month of the three, I'm o.k. with that. What's the assumptions to get 3.7M? Back of the envelope, without much thought, I just went with an ASP of $500 (a lot of $300-$350, but some of those high end ones too, plus extra or upgraded bands and such). If previously available items in that category just stayed flat, it was an extra $1B in revenue due to the watch. Thus 2M units if that ASP is rightish. Take away some from the ASP, and assume things like the Apple TV sold more than a year ago, and you're flat on the guess. Seems like it's in the right ballpark, and then underestimate to 1.7-1.8M units until told otherwise. EDIT: at about 20:30 into the call, he says the Other category was up 49% YOY, and the watch accounted for "well over 100% of the growth of the category", more than offsetting the decline of iPod and Accessory sales. So maybe up the guesstimate to 2.1-2.25M units, and the slightly scaled back estimate to 1.9-2.1M units That's my WAG, but it's just that. Should say 2.7 million. Munster raised his guess to 2.5. But, as noted, it does not signify. Apple sold close to a billion dollars of watches. Nice.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jul 21, 2015 22:15:31 GMT -8
Luckychoices: I'm helping! Be thankful I was right. Greater China "saved the quarter". And, obviously Mav, I was kidding you. China showed amazing growth and you nailed the number. I'm just still appalled at the idea that Apple stock can be punished so severely, not because it didn't meet the companies own estimates, but because it didn't meet the estimates of people outside the company who are not privy to all the plans, orders and records of those inside the company. At least those "experts" should label their so-called "estimates" the same as you labeled yours_as a WAG. Because that's what they are.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jul 21, 2015 22:20:36 GMT -8
A puzzle, if you like them. Post will go live around market open, testing to see if this works. wp.me/p3GD2Q-1em
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Post by rickag on Jul 22, 2015 3:35:19 GMT -8
I highly suspect the company will be out there tomorrow buying shares - or at least they can be if they want to be. This is true. There are no SEC rules about a blackout period around ERs that I have found. Individual companies may set internal guidelines or rules regarding blackout periods to avoid scrutiny from the SEC about insider trading. If I am wrong let me know.
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Jul 22, 2015 6:44:33 GMT -8
I highly suspect the company will be out there tomorrow buying shares - or at least they can be if they want to be. This is true. There are no SEC rules about a blackout period around ERs that I have found. Individual companies may set internal guidelines or rules regarding blackout periods to avoid scrutiny from the SEC about insider trading. If I am wrong let me know. My understanding is that the company files a plan in advance that describes when they will be idle and when they will buy. So no set requirements, but each company must commit to a plan
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Post by rickag on Jul 22, 2015 9:41:59 GMT -8
This is true. There are no SEC rules about a blackout period around ERs that I have found. Individual companies may set internal guidelines or rules regarding blackout periods to avoid scrutiny from the SEC about insider trading. If I am wrong let me know. My understanding is that the company files a plan in advance that describes when they will be idle and when they will buy. So no set requirements, but each company must commit to a plan I tried to find any information on black out periods in the Federal Register. It is my understanding that the fear Corporations have in stock repurchases is insider trading that comes under §78i. Manipulation of security prices. Our ever present partner in our lives, the Federal Government, has provide Safe Harbor rules to prevent prosecution of corporate officers of insider trading. That rule being Rule 10b-18 as a "Safe Harbor". Definition of Rule 10b-18Additional digging came across several websites that explained there is no SEC or government rule regarding when a company/corporation can buy back their stocks. Stock Buybacks: The RulesWhat Is a Blackout Period?They must just meet the criteria for not using insider trading, hence, the government added Rule 10b-18 to provide some safety from prosecution. But even Rule 10b-18 doesn't mention a quite or blackout period for repurchasing stock. These rules are instituted by the corporations themselves to avoid prosecution for insider trading. Based on this, I would have to guess Apple has an internal policy for blackout periods, and incidentally insider trading, such as corporate officers selling stock received through option grants, a la Angela's sales of stock. Now you watch, some smarty pants financial lawyer will respond to my post and show the exact SEC regulation that imposes black out periods.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 23, 2015 4:22:21 GMT -8
Based on this, I would have to guess Apple has an internal policy for blackout periods, and incidentally insider trading, such as corporate officers selling stock received through option grants, a la Angela's sales of stock. As I said previously, Apple does (or did) have a blackout period. I want to say it was 3 weeks before and 2 days after, but it might have been 2 weeks before and one week after, all based on earning. If affected by that (I was no where near at that level), I remember that it cut down on the period you could sell quite a bit. But it seems that the top-10 people tend to mostly put a plan in place, where a set amount is sold quarterly. While a lot could have changed since then (Fred left, and there was the options backdating issue, both about halfway through my time there), it seemed pretty generic.
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