Since84
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Post by Since84 on Aug 6, 2015 2:32:40 GMT -8
Good morning everyone. Well AAPL is GREEN this morning in premarket trading at 115.44 +0.04 (0.03%). OK barely, but given the lower high and ex dividend... Broader markets are mixed. God is RED, S&P and NASADQ are GREEN. Also barely. In the news: WSJ [$] has Pulling Apple Out of Its Funk. Perhaps it's Wall Street that needs to be pulled out of its funk. Apple Music reaches 11M trial members after five weeks. Stories at AppleInsider, CNBC, Mashable and others. TechNewsWorld has Bring On the New Apple TV - Streaming Service or Not. Have a great day. Let's make money. Like those GREEN Apples.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Aug 6, 2015 2:39:11 GMT -8
Last night's thread had an interesting discussion of why Wall Street views Apple the way it does. I would simply add that Wall Street and most companies view people as something to be harvested. Apple views people as someone to please. Sheep don't like being shorn. "They" don't understand sheep.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Aug 6, 2015 3:04:21 GMT -8
The Wall Street, Tech Industry, and link baiter FUD works to Apples advantage on some levels. How? Apple is a behemoth. Largest company in the US (market capitalization), more profitable, and consistently growing. How many companies launch a billion dollar product... that is immaterial... and viewed as a 'flop'? Remember there are those who view bigger as bad. Yet, Apple is typically viewed as the underdog, the upstart, the renegade... dare I say 'also ran'. The pundit's lack of focus on the numbers and meaningful comparisons (e.g. Apple vs Amazon or Google or any of the other DOW members) helps to perpetuation this image. Meanwhile we Apple sheep get fat, happy and own more and more of the company thanks to Apple's brilliant share repurchases. Cheers to the longs.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Aug 6, 2015 3:06:10 GMT -8
P.S.
In case you haven't notice, I'm feeling sheepish this morning.
BAAAAH
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Aug 6, 2015 3:28:54 GMT -8
John Gruber has an interesting piece: Yet Wall Street doesn't have a clue.
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Post by rickag on Aug 6, 2015 3:42:11 GMT -8
Since84
You've been busy this morning, thank you.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Aug 6, 2015 4:40:51 GMT -8
Since84 You've been busy this morning, thank you. or bored... Jim Dalrymple quotes Jean-Louis Gassée on Apple’s ad-blocking technology "Losing trust is bad for the bottom line – no economy can function well without it." Of course, I like to take things and think about them other contexts... like Wall Street and the economy. In this case it reminds me of John Keynes. When it was pointed out to him that his proposals wouldn't work in the long run, he quipped 'in the long run we'll all be dead'. Well he is, but we're not. Future generations still have to deal with it. Back to Wall Street and the common attitude about sheep, to the extent a market is not a fair and equitable medium of exchange and investment it slowly and inevitably destroys itself. Note that Apple is slowly going private. I'll get off my soap box now.
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Post by Lstream on Aug 6, 2015 5:42:21 GMT -8
JD talked yesterday about the Apple Watch failure meme. I spent the day yesterday with one of the world's largest contract manufacturers. (37 person meeting and 5 Apple watches by the way). Failure memes are all over the place. A senior executive from this company (wearing an Apple watch) was talking about change and disruption. Pointed out that Xiaomi has taken over as #1 in China. No context. No talk of pricing or profit. Just that Apple was not number 1. I don't think he is a hater, but the world just loves failure stories about Apple. And no, this was not Foxconn.
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Post by hledgard on Aug 6, 2015 6:10:49 GMT -8
. . . but the world just loves failure stories about Apple. And no, this was not Foxconn. I think there is some truth in this.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 6, 2015 6:27:58 GMT -8
. . . but the world just loves failure stories about Apple. And no, this was not Foxconn. I think there is some truth in this. I think part of it is the computer they use. I mean, imagine that there are only 2 car (OS) companies out there, for all practical purposes. You have the bigger one (Chevy), and have for years. But it hits more problems, isn't as user friendly, loses it's value quicker, doesn't last as long, etc. But another, let's say Toyota, is the up and comer, and has been for years. It's now more than just a niche, but actually moving on up. And it doesn't have all the flaws, etc. No one is perfect, but this is a lot closer to it than Chevy. At some point, there is a little backlash. The smaller company went from being considered beleaguered, to doing ok, to being hot to trot. Both for products, acceptance, and the stock. And now the bigger company isn't seen in as good of a light. So of course, especially after 10 years or more of decline, and not being the cool kid, the user of the inferior product is going to jump on any negative news to the up and comer. It just seems a little obvious to me, but after all the disses over the past 20 years, I just don't care as much. Sure, "it's not fair!", but what is. I just read the consumer reports from a month or two back, including the top 10 cars likely to make it to 200,000 miles. Every single one was a Toyota or Honda. And yet, 2 pages over in the "best used cars under $10k", there were no Honda's or Toyota's. Different criteria for "best" I guess. I've yet to actually get any of the cars I have owned to 200k, but all have been capable, and most to all likely made it there after I sold them. I just don't drive enough, these days or previously, to boost them up there. Ahhhh, the benefits of a 3 stop light town and no commute.
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Post by phoebear611 on Aug 6, 2015 6:32:19 GMT -8
. . . but the world just loves failure stories about Apple. And no, this was not Foxconn. I think there is some truth in this. Allow this broken record to sound off one last time: And it is exactly THIS why they need to deliver / launch a product with perfection especially something as important to them (and us by extension) as the Watch. They are not given room for (perceived) error in particular with something like that.
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Aug 6, 2015 7:02:41 GMT -8
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Since84
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Post by Since84 on Aug 6, 2015 7:05:28 GMT -8
Phoebe sound off as often as you like. I'll even lend you my soap box.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 6, 2015 7:14:01 GMT -8
I think there is some truth in this. Allow this broken record to sound off one last time: And it is exactly THIS why they need to deliver / launch a product with perfection especially something as important to them (and us by extension) as the Watch. They are not given room for (perceived) error in particular with something like that. The original iPod was also considered a failure by many in the first 3-6 months. "Who would pay $399 for that!". And Mac only, so no mass appeal. I bought one, but only because I was working at Apple, and I was able to get it at half price even though I was a contractor. Sadly, I rarely used it for music, but it was an awesome 5 gig firewire based jump drive. I believe the original iPhone was considered a failure by many in the first 3-6 months....and then the price dropped $100. The iPad. Well, there was lots of jeering at the name. The Watch release was early enough that they have times to get 2.0, or even just new software or a slightly lower price or ramped up production, out by the holiday season. And they'll know a lot better than I of which of those things if any need to be addressed. I'm not in the market for one right now, but would be 10 years ago, and could be if the interaction makes it worthwhile for skiing. Getting my iPhone out while on a lift....well, moisture, cold, gloves, and height make it not a great fit.
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Post by wildguess on Aug 6, 2015 7:21:47 GMT -8
In a report published Thursday, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy L. Huberty maintained an Overweight rating on Apple Inc. AAPL 0.8% , with a price target of $155. Apple's shares have declined by more than 12 percent since the company declared its quarterly results, mainly owing to fears of a decline in iPhone unit sales in FY16. "We are buyers ahead on weakness ahead of iPhone unit and gross margin expansion in FY16," analyst Katy Huberty said. Huberty expects iPhone units to grow by 3 percent next year, supported by continued upgrades of the installed base with slowing new user additions and an expected price cut in September. Although Apple is not fully immune to the current weakness in the China market, it is able to convert "previously mid-market smart phone purchasers to their platform," Huberty wrote. In the report Morgan Stanley noted, "A combination of services/Watch growth, expanding iPhone margins, and share repurchases deliver 13% base case EPS growth in FY16." Huberty believes that Apple's shares may appreciate in the back half of this year, as iPhone fears prove to be overblown. Since Apple was building iPhone component inventory, "supply chain data points are likely to be volatile as builds and shipments converge over time," which could add pressure on the company's shares in the near term, the report stated. Apple's improving gross margins, the start of the new iPhone cycle, low institutional ownership, competitive product line-up and a more robust product services roadmap indicate that the current setup is not similar to 2013, Huberty pointed out. Read more: www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/15/08/5741904/remember-when-apple-crashed-in-2012-this-isnt-a-repeat-m#ixzz3i34slgMY
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Post by sponge on Aug 6, 2015 7:23:12 GMT -8
Last time we dropped below the 200 MA while the fundamentals looked strong was in 2011. We stayed below the 200 for 15 trading days. We are on day 4. Let's see how long we stay this time. Given the swift drop we should bounce back over 120 in a shorter period.
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Post by sponge on Aug 6, 2015 7:27:38 GMT -8
In a report published Thursday, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy L. Huberty maintained an Overweight rating on Apple Inc. AAPL 0.8% , with a price target of $155. Apple's shares have declined by more than 12 percent since the company declared its quarterly results, mainly owing to fears of a decline in iPhone unit sales in FY16. "We are buyers ahead on weakness ahead of iPhone unit and gross margin expansion in FY16," analyst Katy Huberty said. Huberty expects iPhone units to grow by 3 percent next year, supported by continued upgrades of the installed base with slowing new user additions and an expected price cut in September. Although Apple is not fully immune to the current weakness in the China market, it is able to convert "previously mid-market smart phone purchasers to their platform," Huberty wrote. In the report Morgan Stanley noted, "A combination of services/Watch growth, expanding iPhone margins, and share repurchases deliver 13% base case EPS growth in FY16." Huberty believes that Apple's shares may appreciate in the back half of this year, as iPhone fears prove to be overblown. Since Apple was building iPhone component inventory, "supply chain data points are likely to be volatile as builds and shipments converge over time," which could add pressure on the company's shares in the near term, the report stated. Apple's improving gross margins, the start of the new iPhone cycle, low institutional ownership, competitive product line-up and a more robust product services roadmap indicate that the current setup is not similar to 2013, Huberty pointed out. Read more: www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/15/08/5741904/remember-when-apple-crashed-in-2012-this-isnt-a-repeat-m#ixzz3i34slgMYThe 3% iPhone growth and13% eps growth says it all. It is déjà vu from 2013. No one expected more then 10% iPhone growth in 2014-2015 and yet they will end with well above 35%. They expected flat eps and we got 35%. WS does not know this company at all.
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Post by Lstream on Aug 6, 2015 7:32:19 GMT -8
I think there is some truth in this. Allow this broken record to sound off one last time: And it is exactly THIS why they need to deliver / launch a product with perfection especially something as important to them (and us by extension) as the Watch. They are not given room for (perceived) error in particular with something like that. You will be permanently frustrated then. Every new product launch will fall short of "perfection". And Apple will get dumped on no matter what their performance is. I have never agreed with you about how bad the launch was executed. There is no universal standard on what perfection means. Or acceptable either. All of the ways these things are judged comes down to opinion. And everyone has one. And the media has a new one every day, depending on what fabrication, distortion, and lie drives the most page hits.
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Post by phoebear611 on Aug 6, 2015 8:33:38 GMT -8
Allow this broken record to sound off one last time: And it is exactly THIS why they need to deliver / launch a product with perfection especially something as important to them (and us by extension) as the Watch. They are not given room for (perceived) error in particular with something like that. You will be permanently frustrated then. Every new product launch will fall short of "perfection". And Apple will get dumped on no matter what their performance is. I have never agreed with you about how bad the launch was executed. There is no universal standard on what perfection means. Or acceptable either. All of the ways these things are judged comes down to opinion. And everyone has one. And the media has a new one every day, depending on what fabrication, distortion, and lie drives the most page hits. Again- you misunderstand my post. The STREET prices this stock for perfection and crucifies it when it isn't perfect or gives us an upward surprise. My frustration lies in the unlevel playing field in which this Company is asked to perform but surely you see what happens in a quarter with the slightest of imperfections. And yes, as much as it may be left to the beholder - for the most part - the crowd/consensus is calling the shots on this one and is the beholder. I've exhausted the conversation about the watch launch and you are correct lots of opinions and I stated mine- it sucked. But I still think the Company has so much more to offer and I remain long. C'est la vie!
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Post by ericinaustin on Aug 6, 2015 8:45:13 GMT -8
In a report published Thursday, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy L. Huberty maintained an Overweight rating on Apple Inc. AAPL 0.8% , with a price target of $155. Apple's shares have declined by more than 12 percent since the company declared its quarterly results, mainly owing to fears of a decline in iPhone unit sales in FY16. "We are buyers ahead on weakness ahead of iPhone unit and gross margin expansion in FY16," analyst Katy Huberty said. Huberty expects iPhone units to grow by 3 percent next year, supported by continued upgrades of the installed base with slowing new user additions and an expected price cut in September. Although Apple is not fully immune to the current weakness in the China market, it is able to convert "previously mid-market smart phone purchasers to their platform," Huberty wrote. In the report Morgan Stanley noted, "A combination of services/Watch growth, expanding iPhone margins, and share repurchases deliver 13% base case EPS growth in FY16." Huberty believes that Apple's shares may appreciate in the back half of this year, as iPhone fears prove to be overblown. Since Apple was building iPhone component inventory, "supply chain data points are likely to be volatile as builds and shipments converge over time," which could add pressure on the company's shares in the near term, the report stated. Apple's improving gross margins, the start of the new iPhone cycle, low institutional ownership, competitive product line-up and a more robust product services roadmap indicate that the current setup is not similar to 2013, Huberty pointed out. Read more: www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/15/08/5741904/remember-when-apple-crashed-in-2012-this-isnt-a-repeat-m#ixzz3i34slgMYThe 3% iPhone growth and13% eps growth says it all. It is déjà vu from 2013. No one expected more then 10% iPhone growth in 2014-2015 and yet they will end with well above 35%. They expected flat eps and we got 35%. WS does not know this company at all. I would argue that Wall Street knows almost no company very well. What passes for well reasoned research and valuation is just a joke in the current investing environment . I take every " expert " opinion with a huge grain of salt. The economic and investing press is much worse than the current state of news offerings that Jon Stewart was so good at making fun of.
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Post by Volvocoupe on Aug 6, 2015 8:58:46 GMT -8
The 3% iPhone growth and13% eps growth says it all. It is déjà vu from 2013. No one expected more then 10% iPhone growth in 2014-2015 and yet they will end with well above 35%. They expected flat eps and we got 35%. WS does not know this company at all. I would argue that Wall Street knows almost no company very well. What passes for well reasoned research and valuation is just a joke in the current investing environment . I take every " expert " opinion with a huge grain of salt. The economic and investing press is much worse than the current state of news offerings that Jon Stewart was so good at making fun of. Eric, I am in the business as an Investment Advisor and I stopped listening to research departments (for the most part) in the 1990's, after Bre-X. I just buy 5 to 25% of Apple in all my clients accounts and hold. Not very profitable for me, but I need to take care of the clients first and foremost. Coverting all those accounts that own Apple into fee-based accounts and charging them 1%. Once this is done, everyone will be happy and they have a tax writeoff.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Aug 6, 2015 9:24:37 GMT -8
Phoebes, we agree on the what (you say botch, I say exploratory) of the Watch launch, but I think that you may under-estimate the why. This is truly the most "different" product that Apple has offered since the iPod, IMHO. Apple keeps emphasizing the personal nature of the product; there can be no doubt about that, and not just because it is a wearable. Compared to a couple of colors and the amount of memory included (which is completely invisible), no other Apple product has ever offered the number of buying options that the Watch has, with the multiple versions and plethora of strap options. The buying experience is completely different and demands a very different approach for the high end of the product; frankly, I am amazed that they are even going to offer it through Best Buy, although I do expect the overwhelming number sold there to be Sport models. Also, no competitors were watching the launches of the iPod or the much-derided original iPhone with the scrutiny that the Watch received. In addition, Apple is now held to a much higher standard by the market and the industry in general than it was at the time of those product launches. As has been pointed out, the Watch has already surpassed any previous wearable tech sales in the first 6 months of a limited launch. If anyone knows how to ramp things up to meet what will surely be quickly increasing demand, it is operations genius Tim Cook, ably assisted by Jeff Williams. Of course, your mileage may vary, but I say: Keep The Faith
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mark
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Post by mark on Aug 6, 2015 9:46:15 GMT -8
Last time we dropped below the 200 MA while the fundamentals looked strong was in 2011. We stayed below the 200 for 15 trading days. We are on day 4. Let's see how long we stay this time. Given the swift drop we should bounce back over 120 in a shorter period. Ha. 15 days is just in time for option expiry!
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bud777
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Post by bud777 on Aug 6, 2015 10:28:31 GMT -8
What is this strange color?
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Post by sponge on Aug 6, 2015 11:46:26 GMT -8
Last time we dropped below the 200 MA while the fundamentals looked strong was in 2011. We stayed below the 200 for 15 trading days. We are on day 4. Let's see how long we stay this time. Given the swift drop we should bounce back over 120 in a shorter period. Ha. 15 days is just in time for option expiry! Did not realize that. Based on OI I can see a close between 120-123 on August 20. I think we will get back over the 200 MA before then.
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Post by mace on Aug 6, 2015 14:24:53 GMT -8
JD talked yesterday about the Apple Watch failure meme. I spent the day yesterday with one of the world's largest contract manufacturers. (37 person meeting and 5 Apple watches by the way). Failure memes are all over the place. A senior executive from this company (wearing an Apple watch) was talking about change and disruption. Pointed out that Xiaomi has taken over as #1 in China. No context. No talk of pricing or profit. Just that Apple was not number 1. I don't think he is a hater, but the world just loves failure stories about Apple. And no, this was not Foxconn. Contract manufacturers need volume right?
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Post by mace on Aug 6, 2015 14:31:45 GMT -8
The original iPod was also considered a failure by many in the first 3-6 months. "Who would pay $399 for that!". And Mac only, so no mass appeal. It was a failure until Hell froze over. IIRC sold only 50,000 in the Christmas quarter.I believe the original iPhone was considered a failure by many in the first 3-6 months....and then the price dropped $100. Dropped from $86 to $53 (I think) not because of iPhone... option irregularity threatens the removal of SJ as CEO.
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Post by mace on Aug 6, 2015 14:44:08 GMT -8
Watch is the next evolution (after handheld, laptop/notebook, desktop/micro, mini, mainframe) and I believe everybody knows it.
Mainstream consumers are waiting for improved version at cheaper price, and anti-anything-Apple is waiting for copycats.
The big question for AAPL investors is how long would it take for mainstream consumers (early majority) to come in?
I think we are still in the innovators stage, not yet early adopters stage... the limited rollout is slowing the adoption or because Apple thinks the adoption would be slower than other iOS devices?
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platon
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"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
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Post by platon on Aug 6, 2015 15:13:09 GMT -8
I really like my watch I don't even like to take it off to charge it. Yesterday I was on a 8 foot ladder in the top of a Barn. Heat was probably 125 or so and got several calls and texts. Very handy to have. So even Joe Redneck will eventually see the need to own one. I'm a Redneck but I am an early adopter. Give it time.
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Post by nagrani on Aug 6, 2015 16:48:06 GMT -8
Mace - can u give us a Kama sutra TA update?
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