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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 19, 2012 9:19:28 GMT -8
At some point, we should have at least an oversold bounce to test SMA-100...then we can see if it's retrace or reversal...
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Post by tuffett on Oct 19, 2012 9:21:32 GMT -8
Exercise caution with calls and puts. IV getting very high... That's why I'm selling them!
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 19, 2012 9:23:37 GMT -8
Silly me apparently for not wanting to lose my original investment back in febuary.
I will not walk away with a loss for the year.
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Post by v10king on Oct 19, 2012 9:24:13 GMT -8
to take that full circle then you cant be an investor if you intend to sell commons at all once purchased :-) and myself I have not been a buy and hold, sorry hope individual for many years now. I have to agree with Mav. I used to think my LEAPS were investments. Not so. It's not that you necessarily intend to buy and hold a stock, but it's good to have the option. With options you don't have that option. With options you can always roll out if you are smart enough. Rolling 2014 LEAPS out to 2015 sometime in 2013 if things don't go right, gives you a lot more time to recoup losses. Now if the stock that you keep rolling out has no chance to go up, your screwed.
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Post by tuffett on Oct 19, 2012 9:24:26 GMT -8
I am getting very close to the point where I have decided to sell all of my apple shares. I have figured that my break even point is about 590.00 or so give or take a few bucks. I really do not want to sell everything and walk away but apple continues to fall and I am getting more worried by the day. Didn't you say this a couple of weeks ago? And then didn't you proclaim your utmost confidence and "long and strong" position last week at $650? And now the world is ending again? I don't want to be harsh but your psychology is not at the level it needs to be for you to invest in the stock market.
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 19, 2012 9:26:30 GMT -8
Silly me apparently for not wanting to lose my original investment back in febuary. I will not walk away with a loss for the year. Nate, you keep buying tops and selling bottoms. STOP!!! We are closer to a bottom than a top here!!!
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Post by v10king on Oct 19, 2012 9:27:43 GMT -8
I am getting very close to the point where I have decided to sell all of my apple shares. I have figured that my break even point is about 590.00 or so give or take a few bucks. I really do not want to sell everything and walk away but apple continues to fall and I am getting more worried by the day. Didn't you say this a couple of weeks ago? And then didn't you proclaim your utmost confidence and "long and strong" position last week at $650? And now the world is ending again? I don't want to be harsh but your psychology is not at the level it needs to be for you to invest in the stock market. Nate's view on this stock is always a good way to see when to buy,as Nate freaks out and starts freaking out more and more you know the bottom is getting close. This is the time to buy more if you haven't already done so IMHO.
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Post by chiongleng on Oct 19, 2012 9:28:14 GMT -8
i do not care whether machine or human is behind the trading of today apple share. So long apple is still a good company that produce great product that consumer love. I will hold on to the apple share. once earning is out the share price have to adjust to reflect the correct PE ratio. By then we will realise the selling now is only noise. I would consider selling apple only when those small issue with the product like the sratches, purple fringe and mapplegate is ignore by the mainstream news. I have samsung phone, there are many issue like battery weak despite bigger battery , slow to charge up the battery , the phone slow down after using for months, quite a lot of free app does not work after downloaded. No body seems to care about it. Why? because samsung is no the most love product, samsung does not have the brand image of having the greatest user experience. customer buy samsung, they expect glitch. That proof how great apple product is. we just need to trust apple
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 19, 2012 9:30:19 GMT -8
I have to agree with Mav. I used to think my LEAPS were investments. Not so. It's not that you necessarily intend to buy and hold a stock, but it's good to have the option. With options you don't have that option. With options you can always roll out if you are smart enough. Rolling 2014 LEAPS out to 2015 sometime in 2013 if things don't go right, gives you a lot more time to recoup losses. Now if the stock that you keep rolling out has no chance to go up, your screwed. I do a lot of rolling of bull put spreads. Rolling is trading, obviously.
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Post by Apple II+ on Oct 19, 2012 9:32:04 GMT -8
Exercise caution with calls and puts. IV getting very high... That's why when I say I'm buying the dip, I usually mean I'm opening OTM BuPS.
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Post by rutgersguy92 on Oct 19, 2012 9:32:17 GMT -8
Did a little calculation. After next Thursday, when we officially add about $3 to out TTM, the stock price should appreciate about $45 to maintain the same PE. In other words, assuming the PE ratio holds next Friday, our price should be about 664. Alternately, if we held the current price (aprrox. 619) thru next Friday, the PE would drop to 13.6 (I used Nick Nansen's estimate of $45.49 for TTM, which includes his estimate of $10.00 for 4Q12). In 2012, the PE ranged between 13 and 15.5 in Q1 - which corresponds to prices of 591.37 and 705, respectively - so this gives you an idea of the upside and downside possible during 1Q13. Fundamentally, there ain't a lot of downside from here (about 27 points), however, technicals could alter that in the short term.
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Post by fas550 on Oct 19, 2012 9:33:22 GMT -8
I have to agree with Mav. I used to think my LEAPS were investments. Not so. It's not that you necessarily intend to buy and hold a stock, but it's good to have the option. With options you don't have that option. With options you can always roll out if you are smart enough. Rolling 2014 LEAPS out to 2015 sometime in 2013 if things don't go right, gives you a lot more time to recoup losses. Now if the stock that you keep rolling out has no chance to go up, your screwed. Agreed. Seems the core issue for MAv and others is the instrument of the investment (on non-investment instrument). Myself it's not what it is, its the motive and method. One can day trade with commons but just because it's a common that doesn't make it an investment, it's still day trading. Anyway I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.
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Post by tuffett on Oct 19, 2012 9:40:31 GMT -8
With options you can always roll out if you are smart enough. Rolling 2014 LEAPS out to 2015 sometime in 2013 if things don't go right, gives you a lot more time to recoup losses. Now if the stock that you keep rolling out has no chance to go up, your screwed. Agreed. Seems the core issue for MAv and others is the instrument of the investment (on non-investment instrument). Myself it's not what it is, its the motive and method. One can day trade with commons but just because it's a common that doesn't make it an investment, it's still day trading. Anyway I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I agree with you. Trading and investing is a mindset and is not determined by what instrument you choose to use. A trader can buy a house, fix it up and flip it a few months later. An investor can buy that same house, raise his kids in it and sell it decades later. I'm my opinion, LEAPs can be considered investing with greater leverage (and greater risk).
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,598
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 19, 2012 9:40:43 GMT -8
And sold the last of my cheap hedges OCT'12 615/625 bear put spreads (bought for .20) What day and around what stock price did you get those? They're in my shoulda coulda woulda list, especially at that price. Nice buy
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 19, 2012 9:46:35 GMT -8
Silly me apparently for not wanting to lose my original investment back in febuary. I will not walk away with a loss for the year. Nate, you keep buying tops and selling bottoms. STOP!!! We are closer to a bottom than a top here!!! My gut tells me the same thing, my brain quit working. I think next weekend I will have to clean rooms to cover my hotel costs.
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Post by terps530 on Oct 19, 2012 9:49:27 GMT -8
this recent fall from 620 back to 616 now seems to be going with the entire market
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Mav
Member
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Posts: 10,784
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 9:49:48 GMT -8
Well, no. TIMEFRAME is everything. I don't think I'm alone in needing plenty of convincing if someone tells me they're investing with Apr 13s regardless of strategy. Rolling is trading, like Apple II+ said.
It's just that options have obvious timeframes. Of course you can trade common.
I trade and I invest. I'm fine with both disciplines.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Oct 19, 2012 9:53:10 GMT -8
Hmmmm.
Wonder if I can mortgage the Enterprise and buy some more shares here....
This quarter's earnings swing trade is officially cancelled. The past pattern of running up to earnings is broken and I'll have to see if it reasserts itself in more "normal" times. Right now it is just buy what I can and go fishin'
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Oct 19, 2012 9:53:14 GMT -8
Oh man.
Just as I scale in a bit with a Jan 13 BCS...
Where's my motion sickness bag...
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Post by bernard on Oct 19, 2012 9:53:34 GMT -8
Silly me apparently for not wanting to lose my original investment back in febuary. I will not walk away with a loss for the year. SELL!!SELL!!!SELL!!!! (If you can't take it.)
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Post by mbeauch on Oct 19, 2012 10:03:46 GMT -8
Wow, the S&P takes out its 50 DMA in one dramatic move. Of course AAPL is leading down, when will it start to lead up?
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Post by fas550 on Oct 19, 2012 10:06:13 GMT -8
days like this I just wish we could get it over with...(fast track to capitulation that is).
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,181
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 19, 2012 10:06:45 GMT -8
Hmmmm. Wonder if I can mortgage the Enterprise and buy some more shares here....' I thought the Federation banished currency and socialism built Starfleet vessels. Not sure if brokers take gold-pressed latinum. A reminder that today is OpEx, and even in the worst of times, Ferengi EO's want to make a profit. 615 puts, hold your mud!
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jz
Member
"Study the natural order of things and work with it rather than against it." -- Lao Tsu
Posts: 162
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Post by jz on Oct 19, 2012 10:17:47 GMT -8
Time for some humor... I saw an Apple article at this publication and wanted to know more about its credibility... I see two typos in their stated commitment to the utmost quality in journalism... Maybe it's just an accent?
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Post by lovemyipad on Oct 19, 2012 10:20:13 GMT -8
And sold the last of my cheap hedges OCT'12 615/625 bear put spreads (bought for .20) What day and around what stock price did you get those? They're in my shoulda coulda woulda list, especially at that price. Nice buy 10/17 around 10 AM.
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Post by charles on Oct 19, 2012 10:22:24 GMT -8
Nate, if you did sell at the peak awhile ago, what would you be doing with a bunch of your cash TODAY? Buying perhaps? Try not to sell on a day you would buy if you were all cash!
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Post by nate010203 on Oct 19, 2012 10:24:31 GMT -8
Nate, if you did sell at the peak awhile ago, what would you be doing with a bunch of your cash TODAY? Buying perhaps? Try not to sell on a day you would buy if you were all cash! If I had cash I would be buying. This drop is really hurting though.
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Post by podboy on Oct 19, 2012 10:26:45 GMT -8
I am considering selling.. My common. I would use that money to buy Feb 13 630-650 BCS. They would return 145% if at 653 in February. Only problem is, what if we miss earnings? That would be a fantastic time to sell some common and buy some spreads. Decisions decisions..
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Post by chasmac on Oct 19, 2012 10:30:47 GMT -8
Wonder if I can mortgage the Enterprise and buy some more shares here.... Sell your hair... umm, wait, bad idea. ;D Sold some shares and Bot some Apr BCSs (700 area).
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Post by adamthompson32 on Oct 19, 2012 10:30:48 GMT -8
I am considering selling.. My common. I would use that money to buy Feb 13 630-650 BCS. They would return 145% if at 653 in February. Only problem is, what if we miss earnings? That would be a fantastic time to sell some common and buy some spreads. Decisions decisions.. I think AAPL is going to crush earnings. I say this for two reasons: 1. Apple usually crushes the highest analyst estimate (something like 26 of the last 28 quarters) 2. Coming off a "barely beat guidance" quarter, Apple likely guided extremely low so they can crush this quarter.
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