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Post by mw1 on Sept 7, 2015 14:44:08 GMT -8
Can anyone provide a link to this? <For anyone interested, I just started a thread in the Apple Fundamentals section regarding the construction of Apple Campus 2. >
Thanks. mw1
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Post by artman1033 on Sept 7, 2015 15:03:02 GMT -8
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Post by mw1 on Sept 7, 2015 16:52:12 GMT -8
Thank you artman[/div]
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2015 16:58:49 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2015 16:59:05 GMT -8
Sure, it's down to a mere ~35% annual growth. Practically at a standstill. AAPL is ~10% above its September 2012 high, and went below that high this summer, and was in free-fall until Tim Cook e-mailed Cramer. That's a long way from 35% annual growth, unless you bought your shares in mid-2013. He's talking rev growth
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Sept 7, 2015 17:02:06 GMT -8
Hey, AAPL's high-growth days are behind it... Part of the thought process of hold/sell/buy: Over say the next 1-5 years it proceed to $250B annual fiscal year revenues and stop? $300B? Or...higher? So yeah, I agree, on the probability scale those good old days of 50 or 100% growth are probably gone. The iPhone was such a wondrous, magical device that it's hard to envision an equally compelling and profitable product with such explosive growth. But there's always a chance they come up with something equally wondrous (a car that revolutionizes transportation, Ava the "personal assistant", a battery that transforms the energy sector, etc.). Not that I would necessarily bet on such a product, but on the other hand if you asked people in the know at Apple, you might get a different and better-informed opinion. So let's look at the next 1-5 years like you say. I'm hoping they have at least a couple more years of pretty high iPhone growth left, maybe 10-20-30%. But at the same time the ecosystem should gradually solidify, as Nagrani pointed out with the high-margin App Store, and also with Apple TV and Apple Pay and Apple Watch and the Enterprise and the numerous other areas we discuss here. So in answer to your question about $300B, I vote higher. With a strong ecosystem they will (finally) have a deep moat that even skeptics cannot deny, and that to me is what has always kept the PE down relative to other companies. You know the routine - people think an Apple based on the iPhone may one year just disappear the way Nokia and Blackberry did. But if Apple is basically the operating system for your life, that's about as strong a moat as you can get. It seems to me that companies that grow at 15-20% with a moat often receive PE's of 20-25 or more. We've had this discussion before, where everyone thinks a PE of 25 for Apple is out of reach so I won't argue the point. Historically it might be unprecedented for a company of this size, but there is some probability of it as with everything else. If I knew that Apple was guaranteed to grow at say 15-20% over the next 5-10 years, plus upside with everything in the pipeline plus benefits of a locked-in ecosystem in both the consumer and enterprise areas plus a sterling reputation for quality and elegance and customer satisfaction, I would probably consider a PE of 20-25 a fair value. Apple is probably gonna throw off $1T in GAAP net income (note I didn't say cash generation, because that is WAY HIGHER in part because of how Apple does its tax provisioning accounting whatever thingy: aapltree.wordpress.com/2015/06/26/beta-post-a-surface-level-look-at-apples-cash-trapped-situation/) every 20 years, on AUTOPILOT. It could spin the trillion net income odometer every 16-18 years, depending on how things work out. That's far and away a perennial #1 all-time record setter. And I dare the market to short THAT long-term.
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Post by Luckychoices on Sept 7, 2015 19:10:23 GMT -8
Yet another story rehashing the same items we've already read in every other story about the 09/09/15 Apple event. New iPhones, new Apple TV, yada yada yada. Apple aims to prove can maintain momentum with iPhone 6S releasewww.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/40065010-536a-11e5-8642-453585f2cfcd.html?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev#axzz3l6vM7nEEBut this one has a series of comments worth reading. Most on the board already know the facts stated in the comments but most of us also need to be periodically reminded of them. =================== Ben Wood, analyst at CCS Insight, notes that Apple customers tend to be very loyal. “We know the iPhone is like the Hotel California of smartphones — once you’re in, it’s very difficult to leave,” he says. “Anyone with an iPhone 4S or 5 is almost guaranteed to upgrade.”That helps to insulate Apple from the broader deceleration in the smartphone market, which market researchers at IDC predict will fall from 27.5 per cent growth in 2014 to 10.4 per cent this year. Wall Street’s estimates of iPhone unit growth of 5 to 10 per cent next year would be a significant slowdown from the 35 per cent growth achieved in Apple’s most recent quarter. Still, even that looks appealing to most other smartphone makers, Mr Wood says. “I’ve met a few CEOs of other phone companies in the last few days and they are just miserable,” says Mr Wood, who attended the IFA technology conference in Berlin. “There’s no consumer electronics company on the planet that wouldn’t give their eye teeth to be Apple right now.”================== If I knew a way to double-bold that last comment, I would have done so. I believe Ben Wood understands more than most about Apple Inc and it's future.
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